http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Topic: amount of lead in petrol as predictor of offending rates en Tue, 19 May 2026 16:28:00 +0000 http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015&page=2#post-257607 Sat, 19 Aug 2017 10:36:41 +0000 gembo 257607@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>The crime connection refuses to go away as even when the researchers are confronted with exceptions e.g. ed1's points they seek ways round the exceptions rather than abandoning the theory. This is human nature but not what Karl Popper would want but then Wittgenstein is supposed to have come at Karl with a poker. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015&page=2#post-257605 Sat, 19 Aug 2017 10:15:40 +0000 chdot 257605@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>Also if we are talking about 'poor people'/crime may well be more lead in the pipes of older, unmodernised house(?).</p> <p>Suspect that kids chewing lead-paint painted window cills was always a minor issue. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015&page=2#post-257603 Sat, 19 Aug 2017 10:06:28 +0000 gembo 257603@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@iwrats and @snowy, best if possible to try to debunk your own theories. </p> <p>In my own field just now there is an eminent educationalist who is experiencing a backlash from his meta analyses as he has combined many different studies with many different variables citing Cohen's d as a justification. This made him famous and governments have bought into his effect size argument. The mathematicians are raging. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257596 Sat, 19 Aug 2017 09:17:17 +0000 I were right about that saddle 257596@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@Snowy</p> <p>I think it's a fundamental tenet of the scientific method that you can't demonstrate causation. You can demonstrate constant correlation and defy others not to see causation. I love the inherent spookiness of spontaneous radioactive decay which appears to have no cause.</p> <p>Similarly I don't think you can demonstrate either the truth or falseness of a single proposition through the method but you can defy people to deny the truth of useful propositions. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257586 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 23:39:47 +0000 gembo 257586@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>Thanks Ed1, I don't think we are at the stage where the lead in petrol is shown to be the cause of increased crime and the reduction in the lead the reason for the reduction in recorded crime. Elegant though the graphs may be. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257582 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 23:07:57 +0000 Ed1 257582@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>The uk did not ban the sale of leaded petrol until the year 2000. The uk was later than united states with availability of unleaded petrol not become widely available until the late 1980s. Many popular cars built in the late 80s could not take unleaded petrol. The fleet of uk vehicles only became typically unleaded in the 1990s. I cant but wonder where was the 2009, 22 year post peak lead fuel, crime fall, in the uk if leaded fuel was the cause. Why was there not a crime fall in UK 17 odd years behind the states.</p> <p>"leaded gasoline was phased out in the USA beginning in 1973" Wiki </p> <p>In the uk in 1988 only 1 percent of petrol sold was unleaded.</p> <p>American cars also had catalytic converts in the 1970s, few uk cars had these until the very late 80s. </p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKxYtOy5nyU" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKxYtOy5nyU</a><br /> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zR7eNAMBP8" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zR7eNAMBP8</a> </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257581 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 22:52:48 +0000 Snowy 257581@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>It may be splitting probabilistic hairs but causation is statistically determinable through experimental method, though only if you can completely rule out the presence of any third factor which could influence the result, which is very hard to do, often not possible, and certainly not through after-the-event observation. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257579 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 22:18:51 +0000 I were right about that saddle 257579@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p><em>you can never get direct proof of a causal relationship without a dedicated and properly designed scientific experiment</em></p> <p>Fraid not. Causation, like faith, is not susceptible to science. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257578 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 22:04:07 +0000 Snowy 257578@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@gembo Not causal in the scientific sense, no, because you can never get direct proof of a causal relationship without a dedicated and properly designed scientific experiment, and we are dealing with people's lives here so that might be deemed slightly unethical :-)</p> <p>However in the real world when a large number of studies and meta-studies repeatedly and independently identify a statistically significant correlation between measured levels of lead, proven consequent developmental retardation of impulse control, and recorded crime levels, then scientifically speaking it moves into the 'accepted theory until proven otherwise' bucket. </p> <p>Meditation still cool though. Wish I still had the time. :-) </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257570 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 17:13:44 +0000 gembo 257570@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@neddie-h lead in petrol bad. Reducing it good. Coincides with reduction in reported offending but not causal. Hence my less serious but equally correlated yogic flying. Still urge anyone to meditate if it suits </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257567 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 16:47:37 +0000 neddie 257567@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>On a more serious note, with lead, there is at least a believable (but as yet unproven?) causation mechanism. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257565 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 16:30:37 +0000 gembo 257565@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@iain McR</p> <p>There is no way yogic flying is anything to do with reduced crime. There is a correlation but as with the lead it is spurious.</p> <p>Meditation is a great thing for us all but further claims are bogus </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257563 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 16:17:29 +0000 dessert rat 257563@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@Gembo - had heard the same about a Washington study of the same ilk. </p> <p><a href="http://www.worldpeacegroup.org/washington_crime_study.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.worldpeacegroup.org/washington_crime_study.html</a></p> <p>I am yet to be convinced - but would love to be. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257555 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 15:47:07 +0000 gembo 257555@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@ed1, had transcendental meditation dude explain to me once that the 10000 people who were doing the old yogic flying in Liverpool had created so much karma that the crime rate fell.</p> <p>Definite correlation there. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257554 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 15:42:45 +0000 Ed1 257554@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect</a></p> <p>It may be the Shamen type dance music that is the true causation of the correlation in the drop in crime. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257552 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 15:28:33 +0000 gembo 257552@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>MKC also has that spooky cold spot. Boo. Did I scare you? </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257549 Fri, 18 Aug 2017 15:06:04 +0000 acsimpson 257549@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>Thanks for clearing that up IWRATS.</p> <p>gembo, I'm sure you know that such wallpaper can be seen in Mary Kings Close. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257464 Thu, 17 Aug 2017 16:24:43 +0000 gembo 257464@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@iwrats, wallpaper used to kill you. True. I have a book with samples of the wallpapers. Modern printing techniques render them harmless. Them William Morrises were deadly. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257442 Thu, 17 Aug 2017 12:47:26 +0000 I were right about that saddle 257442@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@acsipmson</p> <p>Refrigerators prior to CFCs used ammonia and sometimes sulphur dioxide. They did sometimes leak and poison people, but not often. Neither is wildly toxic and both smell strongly so they're not all that dangerous. Quite possible that CFC use was driven by manufacturing convenience, but I don't know.</p> <p>CFC propellants were never necessary. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257441 Thu, 17 Aug 2017 12:37:22 +0000 acsimpson 257441@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>Thanks Stickman, that's the one.</p> <p>While his profit driven push for lead seems fairly clear cut his introduction of CFCs is less so. He had no way of knowing the damage they were doing and meanwhile their introduction to refrigeration possibly saved countless lives. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257254 Tue, 15 Aug 2017 20:06:13 +0000 I were right about that saddle 257254@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p><em>Lead poisoning should confine you to bed quite ill,</em></p> <p>Acute yes, chronic no. Needleman father of chronic lead studies;</p> <p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Needleman#Lead_poisoning_research" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Needleman#Lead_poisoning_research</a></p> <p>[Also - causation is not detectable by scientific means.] </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257245 Tue, 15 Aug 2017 16:13:10 +0000 Arellcat 257245@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>I heard Midgely described as being responsible for more damage to the world's environment than anyone else in history. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257243 Tue, 15 Aug 2017 16:03:36 +0000 Frenchy 257243@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p><em>Thomas Midgely</em></p> <p>I always remember that he developed both leaded petrol and CFCs. This is already quite the body of regrettable work.</p> <p>I always forget that he died when he was strangled by the ropes of the device he designed to help people lift him out of bed after he contracted polio. This makes him, I think, the strongest piece of evidence that God exists and is just taking the mick. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257240 Tue, 15 Aug 2017 15:50:08 +0000 Stickman 257240@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@acsimpson:</p> <p>I first read about that here. Thomas Midgely was the guy:</p> <p><a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Midgley_Jr" rel="nofollow">https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Midgley_Jr</a>. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257237 Tue, 15 Aug 2017 15:43:26 +0000 gembo 257237@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@acsimpson, I think the lad crime correlation is at best just that, a correlation but no causal connection and at worst bogus.</p> <p>Lead poisoning should confine you to bed quite ill, unlikely to commit crime or create children who will be criminals twenty years later. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257234 Tue, 15 Aug 2017 15:36:21 +0000 acsimpson 257234@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>gembo, the correlation between poverty and freeway proximity may be true but it doesn't explain why more freeways but less lead has lead to reduced crime.</p> <p>I'm sure I read somewhere that when lead was introduced to make petrol engines run more smoothly the company responsible knew it was a dangerous poison and that there was a perfectly viable less risky alternative. However as the alternative couldn't be patented they wouldn't make money off it so they opted for the poison. I don't remember the source though so it may have been unreliable. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257211 Tue, 15 Aug 2017 12:27:59 +0000 Min 257211@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>I used to know someone who worked for SEPA and she told me that the pink stuff* in the water is an additive that binds lead so you should be okay.</p> <p>*You know the stuff you get if you don't clean your sink for a few days. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257210 Tue, 15 Aug 2017 12:21:26 +0000 gembo 257210@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>Plumber, name of Fast but really should be BAd, stripped some lead from my house, hopefully all the drinking water - will ask if we received grant, think so as we had a nice plumber who was not VAT registered who could not take the work as would not get grant.</p> <p>Fast and Scottish water then had argument about who should remove what.</p> <p>Fast then left loads of earth that would not fit back in the hiole (too Fast and no tamping down) in my front yard. Balerno in Bloom (or someone else?)_ then took it (by mistake, I guess they thought I left it for them)</p> <p>This was 2001 </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257197 Tue, 15 Aug 2017 09:41:05 +0000 chdot 257197@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>"this is why you can get grant to strip out lead pipes"</p> <p><em>Think</em> grants have ended. </p> <p>SW will replace any of their lead from main to house/property boundary. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=18015#post-257170 Mon, 14 Aug 2017 19:31:30 +0000 gembo 257170@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@neddie-h, yes this is why you can get grant to strip out lead pipes.</p> <p>It is povert, gorgeous George Monbiot buries that conclusion in the article IWRATS links to but he makes it - African Americans live under the free way in lead paint houses. </p>