http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Topic: OT: Covid wastewater surveillance? en Wed, 13 May 2026 02:14:42 +0000 http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372804 Wed, 10 Jan 2024 15:42:12 +0000 Arellcat 372804@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p><em>Doing</em> maths is fun! It's the weaponised context and the deadlines and the drudgery that makes it not fun. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372803 Wed, 10 Jan 2024 14:43:52 +0000 Morningsider 372803@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>Totally outside my ken this issue, but the concept of 'excess deaths' could almost have been designed for eternal argument amongst academics. You have statistics vs. data, with the excess (and presumably also underestimates) being the difference between the two. The question is then "How big a difference and why?"</p> <p>I can just imagine the rival theories, huge egos, academic articles little better than diss tracks. Who says maths isn't fun! (Okay, I might have said that at some point). </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372802 Wed, 10 Jan 2024 14:25:17 +0000 SRD 372802@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>The article is extremely careful to not impute any causes. It's just a one page report of the data. </p> <p>It does list several possible cases "direct effects of Covid-19 infection, acute pressures on NHS acute services resultng in poorer outcomes from episodes of acute illness, and disruption to chronic disease detection and management."</p> <p>But vaccines are not there. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372801 Wed, 10 Jan 2024 14:24:04 +0000 Stickman 372801@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>I would challenge quite strongly your comment that “No one seems to be trying to find out why”. These things take time and can’t be updated as quickly as the headline analysis. (I know - indeed used to work with - one of the article authors, so that isn’t meant as a dig). </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372800 Wed, 10 Jan 2024 14:15:57 +0000 Baldcyclist 372800@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>"John Campbell should not be trusted"</p> <p>Thats a fair comment, however all he is doing in this video is presenting the words of an article written by a person who is the Chair of the Royal Society for Public Health.</p> <p>The data is the data, and is correct, it's not Campbell's data.</p> <p>I'd agree with the anti vax undertones of his commentary and take that with a pinch of salt, but that is exactly why we do need to know the reasons for the deaths - which are eye wateringly high in comparison to pre covid, so that is recorded data as well, rather than people like Campbell making the ascertion that, oh the author of the paper get's paid by Pzizer and that's why the article doesn't make the connection. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372799 Wed, 10 Jan 2024 14:07:09 +0000 Stickman 372799@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>John Campbell should not be trusted. He pivoted to appealing to the anti-vax crowd when he saw the monetary rewards from increased YouTube engagement. His videos are full of misunderstandings and errors. </p> <p>And I say this as someone who, while not an expert, is definitely at the “more informed” end of the spectrum. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372797 Wed, 10 Jan 2024 13:58:12 +0000 Baldcyclist 372797@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>Article looking at 2022/23 ONS data<br /> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776223002211?via%3Dihub" rel="nofollow">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776223002211?via%3Dihub</a></p> <p>OECD data:<br /> <a href="https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=104676" rel="nofollow">https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=104676</a></p> <p>Article was highlighted in YouTube video, (Dr Jon Campbell)<br /> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htRavAZ6jVE" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htRavAZ6jVE</a></p> <p>His view reading the article (though he won't say it out loud) seems to be that the vaccine is causing the deaths. I have no clue about whether that is likely or not (and I am a fully paid up member of the vaccine club), however it does seem that if there is such a marked increaase in excess death worldwide investigating further seems prudent to find out what the actual causes are, whether vaccine or failing NHS, or lazy population since covid, or whatever.</p> <p>From article:</p> <p>"Excess deaths in 2022, 52,514 (9.26%)</p> <p>This persisted into 2023 with 8.6% or 28,024 more deaths registered in the first six months of the year than expected.</p> <p>OECD, UK, weeks 1 – 44, 2023</p> <p>Excess deaths, 49,389 (9.44%)</p> <p>The causes of these excess deaths are likely to be multiple and could include the direct effects of Covid-19 infection,</p> <p>acute pressures on NHS acute services resulting in poorer outcomes from episodes of acute illness,</p> <p>and disruption to chronic disease detection and management.</p> <p>Further analysis by cause and by age- and sex-group may help quantify the relative contributions of these causes.</p> <p>Office for Health Improvement and Disparities</p> <p>3rd June 2022 to 30th June 2023</p> <p>Excess deaths for all causes were relatively greatest for 50–64 year olds (15% higher than expected)</p> <p>11% higher for 25–49 and under 25 year olds,</p> <p>and about 9% higher for over 65s</p> <p>Several causes</p> <p>3rd June 2022–30th June 2023</p> <p>All cardiovascular diseases, 12%</p> <p>Heart failure, 20%</p> <p>Ischaemic heart disease, 15%</p> <p>Liver diseases, 19%</p> <p>Acute respiratory infections, 14%</p> <p>Diabetes, 13%</p> <p><strong>For middle-aged adults (50–64)</p> <p>Cardiovascular diseases, 33% higher than expected</p> <p>Ischaemic heart disease, 44%</p> <p>Cerebrovascular disease, 40%</p> <p>Heart failure 39% higher</p> <p>Deaths involving acute respiratory infections, 43% higher</p> <p>Diabetes, deaths were 35% higher</strong></p> <p>The pattern now is one of persisting excess deaths which are most prominent in relative terms in middle-aged and younger adults</p> <p>Timely and granular analyses are needed to describe such trends and so to inform prevention and disease management efforts. </p> <p>JP-S is Partner at Lane Clark &amp; Peacock LLP, Chair of the Royal Society for Public Health and reports personal fees from Novo Nordisk and Pfizer Ltd outside of this submitted work." </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372795 Wed, 10 Jan 2024 13:25:25 +0000 Stickman 372795@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>Excess death measurements are heavily dependent on baseline assumptions, including population growth and mortality improvements, so results from different organisations can very different. </p> <p>I’ve seen some recent analysis which updates for the 2021 England &amp; Wales Census results that shows there is actually very little excess other than Covid, seasonal flu and heatwave-related deaths. Also, correcting for date of death rather than date of death registration changes the picture significantly. </p> <p>We won’t have a true picture of excess deaths for many years. Analysis is still being done on the impact of the 1918 flu pandemic! </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372786 Wed, 10 Jan 2024 09:56:10 +0000 Baldcyclist 372786@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>More off topic, excess deaths in UK are arround 10% higher than pre COVID levels (worldwide trend is the same). If you are in 25 - 50 demographic it's around 15% higher. No one seems to be trying to find out why - well they know the causes but not why they are much higher .Heart disease of varying types seem to account for a big proportion of those excess deaths, diabetes deaths up 13% as well. COVID not causing deaths. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372784 Tue, 09 Jan 2024 21:34:35 +0000 SRD 372784@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>Seems reasonable. I am definitely not inclined to be alarmist. but I find the lack of data frustrating. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372783 Tue, 09 Jan 2024 21:13:00 +0000 Stickman 372783@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>I think at the moment flu is of most concern in Scotland. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372782 Tue, 09 Jan 2024 20:50:09 +0000 SRD 372782@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>Thank you @stickman I think I did see those links but couldn't find the wastewater data. </p> <p>Also thank you @FRenchy I looked at Sepa but couldn't find anything up to date there. I need to work on my webpage navigating!</p> <p>Any thoughts on the data? Is a breakdown by region ever made available? </p> <p>Given low testing /reporting it seems like wastewater is more reliable than anything else. </p> <p>The usual people online seem more than usually hyped up. and even the Daily Mail has run a column on the need to wear masks (!). </p> <p>Levels very high in Canada. </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372781 Tue, 09 Jan 2024 20:43:22 +0000 Frenchy 372781@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>SEPA also seems to publish data: <a href="https://informatics.sepa.org.uk/RNAmonitoring/" rel="nofollow">https://informatics.sepa.org.uk/RNAmonitoring/</a> </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372780 Tue, 09 Jan 2024 20:37:58 +0000 Stickman 372780@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>@SRD:</p> <p>It’s in the Public Health Scotland weekly report: </p> <p><a href="https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-including-influenza-and-covid-19-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-including-influenza-and-covid-19-in-scotland-surveillance-report-5-january-2024/" rel="nofollow">https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-including-influenza-and-covid-19-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-including-influenza-and-covid-19-in-scotland-surveillance-report-5-january-2024/</a></p> <p>And also on their dashboard:</p> <p><a href="https://scotland.shinyapps.io/phs-respiratory-covid-19/" rel="nofollow">https://scotland.shinyapps.io/phs-respiratory-covid-19/</a> </p> http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=21440#post-372778 Tue, 09 Jan 2024 20:17:16 +0000 SRD 372778@http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/ <p>totally off topic but people here tend to know things...</p> <p>I saw something recently saying that Scotland was still collecting data on covid prevalence in wasterwater, although England is not.</p> <p>Does anyone know where to find that data? </p> <p>I suppose that if there is anything interesting in it, someone will report it, but am curious. </p> <p>Thanks </p>