@IWRATS
The 'Mid'-lands is the usual term, usually in conjunction with a sideways compass point.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
White Paper (THE #indyref thread)
(2915 posts)- Started 11 years ago by Morningsider
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Posted 10 years ago #
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The Great Yes No Don't Know Five Minute Theatre Show | National Theatre of Scotland
Started at 5:00
Posted 10 years ago # -
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THERE is “generalised hostility to the Barnett formula” in Whitehall and Westminster over the “excessive levels” of public spending it provides Scotland, a leading academic has told MSPs."
Posted 10 years ago # -
@Mmorningsider "While we are part of the UK all these projects are funded by UK taxpayers."
It's more complicated than that.
If HS2 was being paid for in the same way as, say, the new Waverley line (or the A96 upgrade to use your example), Scotland would get billions more in its budget.
Transport infrastructure is a devolved matter. So when the UK government decides to spend a billion more on transport infrastructure, £85 million gets added to the Scottish block grant (and other pro-rata shares to Wales and Northern Ireland). That way public spending across the UK goes up or down by amounts proportionate to the population.
On reserved stuff, like defence, obviously there's no sharing out. The UK government can designate projects as being of national benefit, so there's no share for devolved administrations because we're all supposed to be benefiting from it. This has in the past included things like the Olympics, the Millennium Dome and the Jubilee Line extension. They're putting HS2 in this category, so we're paying for it in a way that no-one elsewhere in the UK is paying for the A96.
By nominating this as a national project, at £32.7 billion the UK government is avoiding increasing the Scottish budget by nearly £3 billion.
And if, say, the new Forth crossing were regarded as a national project at £1.5 billion, the Scottish budget wouldn't be paying for it at all.
Posted 10 years ago # -
calmac - I know how the Barnett formula works. Personally, I think HS2 is a UK project - it will help reduce Anglo-Scottish rail journey times and free up train paths on the WCML.
The White Paper is very keen on an Anglo-Scottish high speed rail route, so it seem only fair that Scottish taxpayers help support its construction. After all, even the SNP might find it hard to build a rail line to London that didn't go through England.
The financing arrangements of the examples you use are far more complex than you state.
About 20% of the cost of the Jubilee Line Extension was paid for by the private sector (principally the developers of Canary Wharf and British Gas), and about 10% by London Transport. The remaining 70% was paid by the UK Government.
The Millenium Dome cost the UK taxpayer nothing. It was funded by the National Lottery and ticket receipts.
The London Olympics received £6.5bn UK Government funding from a total budget of £11.3bn (£2.16bn lottery and £0.88bn from London authorities, £0.7bn each from IOC and sponsorship plus a few smaller contributions from other organisations).
In the end, I think it all pretty much balances out.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Just got Alistair Carmichael's booklet and fired in a FoI request on the analysis behind it. It's so bloody woolly it's an outrage. 'Scotland's finances are much stronger...' without saying stronger than what. O Grade English fail.
Amusingly, their map of the UK of GB & NI includes the Isle of Man. O Grade Geography fail. I hope this doesn't mean war....
Posted 10 years ago # -
Jubilee Line Extension: I cannot really see how this could have been a 'national' project. Just a fiddle to avoid coughing up pro-rata to the regions while London benefits from the largesse. Some great architecture in some of the stations, mind you.
The Millenium Dome cost the UK taxpayer nothing.
No, but Lottery cash is still public money and distributors to good causes elsewhere lost out due to the largesse visited upon London.
London Olympics: £6.5bn UK Government funding from a total budget of £11.3bn (£2.16bn lottery
In other words, £8.86bn of public money (78.4% of the total budget) which could have been spent elsewhere, but was spent in London. Public bodies such as the Arts Council, Creative Scotland, Heritage Lottery, etc. had their budgets cut for up to five years because of the Olympics. We can argue whether the event was worth it, but the negative effects of that Lottery spend were felt everywhere except in London. Also again that 'national' project spend, with no 'consequentials' under Barnett for Scotland or Norn Iron. Presumably the Commonwealth Games are receiving funding on a similar basis? Or are they just a 'Scottish' project? Somewhat more modest level of spending involved, of course: around £576m.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Oh let's not forget Crossrail.
Special act of Parliament for a project in the 'national' interest, 2008 (presented by Douglas Alexander). DfT contribution £4.7bn (could rise to £5.2bn if private sector don't cough up); Network Rail underwriting £2.3bn of costs through borrowing against future track/station access charges.
£7bn (possibly rising to £7.5bn) of public largesse for London, that could have been spent elsewhere. Presumably no Barnett 'consequentials' from this either.
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Posted 10 years ago #
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It's not the dependency ratio now that's the issue, it's the projections, so the 2011 census doesn't bust what wasn't a myth.
Worth taking a look at the Scottish Government's own analysis (http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/11/24111237/4), especially figure 3. Roll that hump of 36-57 year olds forward for 30 years or so and you see where the problems kick in. As the report summarises it:
Current projections suggest that there will be a 50% increase in the over 60s and a 4% decrease in the under 16s by 2033. Figures for the 75 and over age group show a projected increase of over 80%. These figures are driven by a relatively low birth rate, although increasing in more recent years (see Section 5, Fertility), and improvements in life expectancy in recent decades (see Section 4, Mortality, Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy).
Hence the need for higher levels of immigation and increased economic participation.
Posted 10 years ago # -
@Instography
'Increased economic participation'
That's not bad as a strap-line for the independence campaign. I'd add 'Increased cultural participation' and 'Increased political participation'.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Here's a man doing some "myth" reinforcing on dependency ratios and pension costs for an independent Scotland.
http://icas.org.uk/News/Latest-News/Delving-deep-into-potential-State-pension-costs/
Posted 10 years ago # -
I do quite a lot of actuarial work, and I can confirm that UK retirement savings are a looming disater requiring urgent reform. That's true whatever the outcome of the referendum.
The real problem, in my view, is one of trust. State pensions are unwritten inter-generational contracts, and I fear greatly for the inter-generational solidarity that they depend upon. Private pensions are complex written contracts with companies that, to say the least, few people trust. I've made a good living at times out of cleaning up the resulting mess, but I'd really like us to have a think about what a sane retirement income system looks like. I suspect a degree of compulsion may be necessary, which is quite distasteful to me. The state will also need to be involved, which requires the state to be trustworthy.
At this point we tack back towards the topic and fire a salvo of Scandinavian-admiration tinged grapeshot;
http://www.ose.be/files/publication/2010/country_reports_pension/OSE_2010_CRpension_Denmark.pdf
Posted 10 years ago # -
Not sure this is going to do Better Together/UK:OK/No Thanks any favours;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28020183
Their press is so bad they actually have to appeal for charities willing to take their donations;
Posted 10 years ago # -
I'd be surprised if they had £150,000 to spend. Maybe it's more a statement than an intention to do anything, though it could hardly surprise anyone to find that proper Unionists are supporting the union.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Brilliant publicity coup by Direct Savings. Unless their working day actually does span 07h00 to 10h00, in which case they'd do better to keep that quiet.
Posted 10 years ago # -
I don't think it is just publicity. They haven't said it explicitly but I think they've been paying careful attention to the some of the polling analysis of turnout.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Jings and crivens. I got the twenty four hour clock wrong. 07h00 to 22h00.
What's with the polling anaysis of turnout? I'm finding about 95% intention to vote in my neck of the woods.
Posted 10 years ago # -
"
In Scotland, voters have traditionally sent a block of Labour MPs to Westminster to represent them. Labour originated in Scotland as the party of Keir Hardie and had a strong home rule ethos. As it grew from a party of protest to one of power, Labour changed its view: the best way to govern was to send representatives down to London. Thus a career structure emerged, whereby “ambitious” politicians could move from local council to a safe Labour seat, then perhaps become a minister. When the party lurched to the Right in the Eighties, it was usurped on the “Left” by the SNP, a bourgeois nationalist party which had taken on social-democratic trappings.
"
Posted 10 years ago # -
I expect the arrested Twitterrorist will turn out to be a CyberNat threatening the First Minister with death for wearing English pantaloons rather than the plaid.
Posted 10 years ago # -
So apparently the guy who wants to be our next manager came up from London to Edinburgh to give a speech;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28041605
We're not told where, when or to whom he spoke. We do not know to whom he is waving in the the photograph. We do not think he took questions or cared to engage with unpolished voters. The speech was released to the media in advance so that it might appear on our telescreens. The message is;
"By voting 'No' you can say 'Yes' to the biggest progressive change for a generation."
Has anyone informed the Orange Order that a No vote is a vote for progressive change? There'll be a riot when they find out.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Yeah, people routinely overstate both their intention to vote and their past voting. Just before general elections the 'absolute certainty to vote' is about 10% higher than the actual turnout. When people are interviewed after elections, the proportion who say they did vote is similarly higher than the actual turnout.
Given that, the question is who is likely to be helped by higher or lower turnout? Recent reports have suggested that Yes voters show higher certainty to vote (although it's based on the 2013 Social Attitudes Survey so is nearly a year old). If the rationale for giving your staff a day off to vote is to remove barriers to voting, it seems most likely that the desired outcome from the free holiday is a higher No vote, if Yes voters are more likely to vote anyway.
Personally, I take it with a large pinch of salt. I'm more inclined to think that since the increase in Yes support has come from those areas where turnout tends to be lowest, the higher certainty among Yes voters is quite soft. It seems more likely to me that the gap between stated certainty and actual turnout (I don't believe it will be 80-90%) will disproportionately come from claimed Yes supporters, although that might be countered by the better grassroots campaigning that might be able to mobilise people on the day.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Not sure the headline on this is justified -
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“Whoever made them – there are interesting conspiracy theorists who think it might all have been down to secret service plants – should be totally condemned. I have no time for this kind of small-minded viciousness.”
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Posted 10 years ago # -
I don't know about Edinburgh but Glasgow and North Lanarkshire schools are having in service days on Sept 18th and 19th. We're also having one on a Thursday in May for the UK elections.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Is this what Millipede means by 'progressive'?
"Scottish independence: Miliband raises border post prospect
Ed Miliband has said a Labour government at Westminster would consider building border posts if Scotland voted for independence.
The Labour leader said he "would have to look at the issue of a border" if the Scottish government achieved its goal of a looser immigration policy.
His comments came during a lunch with journalists in Edinburgh."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28053031
Also an interesting snippet:
"Mr Miliband had some time to ponder the matter this afternoon, as he left Edinburgh on Labour's red "Indyref Express" bus, bound for, you've guessed it, West Lothian."
I actually saw that bus stuck in traffic on Easter Road yesterday afternoon. It had "Labour says vote No" emblazened on the side. I gave it a hard Paddington stare. All the side windows were blanked out with red film. I did wonder who was in it: now I know, it was Millipede and his entourage!
Posted 10 years ago #
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