"Or the state could try to make other places just as attractive as Edinburgh so that they're happy to go elsewhere?"
Easier than done.
Something seems to be working for Inverness though.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » General Edinburgh
"Work starts on new £35m Boroughmuir High School"
(236 posts)-
Posted 7 years ago #
-
Or the state could start actively encouraging smaller families and population control alongside sustainable living (which might rule out GDP growth, and focus on either per capita GDP or happiness measured some other way) in order to reduce the human impact on our planet...
Posted 7 years ago # -
"Or the state could start actively encouraging smaller families and population control"
I know thread drift is encouraged here but - really???
Posted 7 years ago # -
Agree that population control around the world is needed, but in the UK, the birth rate is below the replacement rate. i.e. a net reduction in population.
Posted 7 years ago # -
A sustainable human population with Western levels of income and resource usage is estimated at around 1 billion. There is no such thing as sustainable growth in an enclosed system.
Failing to address that point (and the Greens have sadly become just as guilty in this more recently) has implications, one of which is overcrowded schools.
Posted 7 years ago # -
@eddie_h, it's not just the birth rate you have to take into account (currently 1.89 per mother, or nearly replacement assuming two parents rather than sperm donor).
Net migration to Scotland is around 22,000 people per annum, including migration from England and from other EU countries.
Edinburgh's population is growing fast, and in the 2010s surpassed the previous high point of 1961 (484,000), currently estimated at 498,810. Compare this to the population low of 401,000 in 1991!
Over the next 25 years, the city's population is projected to rise by a whopping 21%. "On average in 2013-15 there was a net inflow of 4,181 people into City of Edinburgh per year", however: "The 16 to 29 year olds age group accounted for the largest group of in-migrants into City of Edinburgh." (see below for source).
So population growth is mainly about migration to Edinburgh, both internal (rest of Scotland, rest of UK) and external (outwith the UK). It is not about a sudden increase in fertility/birth rate (though birth rates in Edinburgh did rise in the zeroes and 2010s).
"In general, birth rates tend to be lower in city areas (particularly Edinburgh with a 2009 GFR of 46.9 compared to the Scotland-wide figure of 56.6), and higher in the surrounding commuter areas and in rural areas. "
http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2010/11/24111237/6
"Fertility in City of Edinburgh decreased from 47.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 in 2014, to 44.1 in 2015. For Scotland as a whole, the general feritlity rate decreased from 54.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 in 2014, to 53.2 in 2015."
How then to explain the sudden surge in school rolls in certain areas? It's not about birth rate, nor about inflows into Edinburgh per se. Possibly fewer families moving out of the city to neighbouring dormitory suburbs than in the past? (Demographic stats showing a rise in the child age population seem to bear this out, with only a small net loss through migration out of the city). However if these were the only factors we'd see an even spread of school rolls rising and catchments filling up across the board. It's about certain areas (and school catchments) being popular, and families moving into certain catchments. Maybe also slightly fewer people "going private" than was the case pre-2008?
Posted 7 years ago # -
Thread drift - the malleable bedrock of the CC forum
It's interesting that the more Scotland's future looks possible as a distinct country (in or out of a union) the more people want to come here. 'We' might be doing something right?
mgj - A sustainable human population with Western levels of income and resource usage is estimated at around 1 billion. There is no such thing as sustainable growth in an enclosed system.
Staying 'off topic'
Over on the Guy Martin in China thread. Rural children of school age are facing the choice of endangered species being lost versus helping Chinese industry to grow for a few years with the reward of a smart device or two to show them what they lost.Posted 7 years ago # -
This thread is right rollercoaster!
Posted 7 years ago # -
Over the next 25 years, the city's population is projected to rise by a whopping 21%
Projected by whom?
The house building companies? Or CEC/ScotGov, keen to encourage "economic growth"?
If the housing stock remains the same and/or the number of school places remain the same, then people will be priced out of Edinburgh and/or discouraged from coming here because "all the schools are overflowing"
Posted 7 years ago # -
@eddie_h, "Projected by whom?"
I've given the sources. Check them out for yourself.
Posted 7 years ago # -
@crowriver
My point is, "build it (schools, houses) and they will come"
Conversely, "do not build it (schools, houses) and they will not come"
ScotGov make these "finger in air" projections because they "want" people to come == economic growth. Even though this will be at the expense of the amenity for everyone else who already lives here.
Posted 7 years ago # -
@eddie_h, I'm afraid it's not as simple as that.
If you look at the stats, Edinburgh has consistently had the highest net migration of any council area in Scotland for the past decade. That's taking into account inward and outward flows of people from and to all areas: within Scotland, within rUK, and internationally.
As you would expect, the next largest flows have been to/from Glasgow, but in a few years over the past decade, Glasgow experienced negative net migration.
Don't forgot, in 25 years, Edinburgh's population has risen by nearly 98,000! That's a 24.4% increase. On average, nearly 4,000 per year. So I imagine future projections are extrapolated from past increases...
Posted 7 years ago # -
Also, I should add there are areas of Scotland which are currently experience modest declines in population.
The Scottish government may well want people to come to Scotland, but that may be because cities like Glasgow have lost so much of their population - though it is growing again, albeit at a more modest rate that Edinburgh. Glasgow in 1961 had 1.140,000 inhabitants. The latest estimate is 606.340. That's 47% of the population lost in 54 years, mainly but not exclusively a flight to surrounding suburban dormitories: the classic "donut effect" seen in US cities. Might planning around the car have something to do with that?
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/council-area-data-sheets/glasgow-city-factsheet.pdf
Posted 7 years ago # -
Glasgow in 1991 had 1.140,000 inhabitants. The latest estimate is 606.340. That's 47% of the population lost in 25 years,
Glasgow's a bit strange though as it's possible to move 'outside' Glasgow but still be within the boundaries of the Glasgow conurbation. It's lost a lot of high-density inner-city slums by moving this population outwards - arguably to lower-density slums. (Although your figures are a bit off - the population was over a million in the 60s, not the 90s.)
Posted 7 years ago # -
Is anyone arguing that Edinburgh has too few people?
Posted 7 years ago # -
Edinburgh has a lot of space left for more people but very little left for more cars.
Posted 7 years ago # -
Posted 7 years ago #
-
"(Although your figures are a bit off - the population was over a million in the 60s, not the 90s.)"
Sorry, my mistake. the first figure was from 1961, not 1991! By which point, Glasgow had lost 42% of its population over 30 years.
Something similar had also happened in Edinburgh over the same period, but much less drastically. Edinburgh started to grow again from 1991 to 2001, while Glasgow continued to decline, and has stayed at pretty much the 2001 population ever since.
Posted 7 years ago # -
Viewforth / St Peter's Place closed to motorised traffic. Digging on corner with Gilmore Place for four weeks. Can walk through. Cycling not sure.
Canal bridge open to serve properties cut off.
Bus stop at Do Ri Me bakery closed.Posted 7 years ago # -
Good shout for PY tomorrow, I can use lift bridge then down by the pregnancy place and out avoiding closure innit?
Posted 7 years ago # -
Plans for new school seem to show a bike lane with solid lines for about 100 meters. Will this be the longest bit of on street "mandatory" cycle lane in Edinburgh?
Dundee-street-plans by Paul fae Fountainbridge, on Flickr
Posted 7 years ago # -
Fountainbridge, interesting, that diagram doesn't seem to show the traffic island/pedestrian refuge that is there at the minute (and which provides a truly delightful pinch point...)
Posted 7 years ago # -
"
The new school was set for a June 16 opening but is now not expected to be opened until January next year - some 17 months after the original date of August 2016.
"
Posted 7 years ago # -
The owner of the Fountainpark Fry was on the radio this morning moaning about a loss of trade (30% reduction, I think) "due to" the roadworks & construction works.
But is it really due to the construction? Do construction workers themselves not work up an appetite after heavy labour?
Do chip shop customers all come by car?
Or is it in anticipation of the hoards of school children that should already be coming, but aren't?
Or is there another reason...?
Posted 7 years ago # -
Fountainpark Fry opened about 18 months ago. The school has been under construction since 2014
Presume it was part of his business plan to have a queue of kids out his shop at lunchtime.
Posted 7 years ago # -
All the nice shiny new tarmac with the nice shiny new
parking placescycle lanes had been ripped up when I went through last night.
Anyone know why?Also, according to Mr fimm, Possibly The Worst Cobbles In Edinburgh on the far side of the canal near Rope Walk / Gilmore Place have been replaced with flagstones. I didn't have time to look last night, though I did notice some barriers at the end of Rope Walk.
Posted 6 years ago # -
@fimm Only the top layer of tarmac had been removed on patches of Fountainbridge. Did wonder if they had forgotten to install induction loops at the junction, but some sections were on the wrong side of the road for that.
Yes re cobbles. Smoothness abounds between Akva/Gilmore Pl/Lochrin Pl
Posted 6 years ago # -
the relaid bike lane seems wider or maybe just more obvious
Posted 6 years ago #
Reply »
You must log in to post.
posts
