Not sure there's much need for driverless buses now, if the internet is right within 10 years no one will have jobs to travel to as the AI will be doing them all, and we'll all just be getting hush money (UBI) from the Govt.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Commuting
Driverless cars (and buses)
(113 posts)-
Posted 1 year ago #
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“if the internet is right”
Thought the internet was a highly reliable source of information.
“within 10 years no one will have jobs to travel to as the AI will be doing them all”
I wonder if the quill pen manufacturers foresaw the future?
Posted 1 year ago # -
Of course, we don't know what the future will hold, though I suspect if you take the most optimistic arguments of augmented humans using AI to better humanity, and the most pecimistic arguments of it will kill all humans and we should stop it now, the reality will probably lie in the middle somewhere, probably in a place the internet hasn't guessed yet.
Only thing for sure is something profound is underway, and robotic buses and language models is just the start... :)
Posted 1 year ago # -
Yes
As well as the unknown unknowns, expect the unexpected!
I remember when the idea of a mobile phone was perhaps just ‘a better Walkie-Talkie’.
Someone must have thought that this was the future -
“
The service ceased in December 1993, only 20 months after being launched. Rabbit had 2,000 subscribers at the time the service closed.
“
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabbit_(telecommunications)
Better ideas evolved.
Then Steve Jobs/Apple produced the iPhone and everything in that area became clones and incremental improvements.
I’ve played with ChatGPT, yes it’s ‘experimental’ and not the most advanced but it was fabulous at making stuff up with dates and places that, when easily checked, were just fantasy.
So more fake news!
I also remember when electricity was going to so cheap ‘it wouldn’t be worth putting in light switches’. Also ‘the next big thing’ was going to be fuel cells.
“
In 2016, Samsung "decided to drop fuel cell-related business projects, as the outlook of the market isn't good".
“
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_cell
No forgetting flying cars and personal helicopters or jet packs.
The other ‘future reality’ was that robots and automation would take over and everyone would have masses of free time (not quite the same as unemployment…)
But somehow ‘the system’/capitalism made it necessary for everyone to work twice as hard to pay for ‘essentials’ and ‘luxuries’.
The unexpected will happen.
Posted 1 year ago # -
ChatGPT is a fun toy, however as a closed system is only as good as the datasets it has access to - so 'it' isn't giving the wrong dates, it has the wrong dates supplied to it. It does have some ability to learn though if you tell it it's wrong and supply the correct dates it should remember.
Once it is able to Search the internet it will be more powerful. ChatGPT4 which has just been released is apparently an exponential improvement on GPT3 (which 'we' play with), but that's only available to paying customers just now. GPT4 is what has the doomsdayers all worried, not GPT4 it's self, but the rate of progress, so what will 5 and 6, and 10 be like?
Other AI tools are already more disruptive, music, video, image creation is already pretty advanced, you soon won't know a real video to an AI generated video. no one thought creative tools would be disrupted, because AI isn't supporsed to be creative. Fun fact areound 40% of code on GitHub is AI generated already... One thing ChatGPT can do pretty well is write you a wordpress plugin that works (if well defined).
Google is worried enough that it knows it is playing catch up, it doesn't want to lose all of that data we've been feeding it for 15 years.
Posted 1 year ago # -
“only as good as the datasets it has access to - so 'it' isn't giving the wrong dates, it has the wrong dates supplied to it”
Yes, understand that and that the ‘public’ version is basic.
But
“Once it is able to Search the internet it will be more powerful.”
Which is not the same as more accurate or more ‘reliable’.
I think there are many reasons to be concerned - job elimination just one.
Concentration of power perhaps more so.
It’s quite comical for people (inc Musk) to call for ‘a 6 month pause’ (what difference would that make apart from advantage those who didn’t comply) - would it apply to self-driving software?
How’s the metaverse going?
Posted 1 year ago # -
LOL. People have been afraid of machines taking over their jobs since the invention of the plough. Machines don't take people's jobs, they enable them to do more (and extract more from the planet, leading to environmental ruin)
There'll be shortage of jobs alright if we allow the planet to become a degraded and brutal version of its former magnificent self. And food.
And yet people with children are still driving everywhere in SUVs - don't they know they're stealing their own children's futures?
Posted 1 year ago # -
"LOL. People have been afraid of machines taking over their jobs since the invention of the plough"
Manufacturing jobs have been highly imppacted by machines, and what will bus, and lorry drivers do when there is no need for them any more? The people most impacted currently are those who perhasps don't have the ability to retrain. People will only car once the 'middle classes' are impacted.
"But somehow ‘the system’/capitalism made it necessary for everyone to work twice as hard to pay for ‘essentials’ and ‘luxuries’."
One of the problems western societies face is poulation decline, and falling productivity, and GDP as a result. AI is seen by some as neccesary to stop the wests decline, essentially by AI solving the productivity problem.
So yes, initially it enables us to restore 'growth'. For example train it on HR law, so in your institution HR proffesstionals aren't inundated with more mundane requests, and they can have more time to deal with complex issues.
Or train it on conveyencing, so lawyers aren't wasting their time dealing with routine tasks, and can focus on more complex cases. Or train it on 1st line IT support etc. etc.All good there as the people carrying out those types of roles are highly educated and have the capacity and ability to focus on more complex work.
Issue comes for those that don't have capacity or ability, what does the person with an IQ of 85 do when they can't drive a bus any more? They do the same as those that have been displaced with robots in factories, nothing.
The near future isn't what some people are worried about.
Just for clarity I'm not in the doomsday group, I'd say use it as much as possible where it can increase productivity, and enable more creative working.
Posted 1 year ago # -
“don't they know they're stealing their own children's futures?“
Essentially no as they don’t understand the ‘issues’ and/or think ‘it’s all exaggerated/technology will solve all the problems’.
Posted 1 year ago # -
@ Baldcyclist
Interesting/useful analysis.
“increase productivity” - that’s a difficult one.
Holy grail of politicians and employers.
Basically more ‘output’ at less cost per ‘unit’.
Endless debates about paying more (or not) to ‘incentivise’ people to work harder/smarter or reduce staff turnover or help fill vacancies OR get the robots in OR ‘offshore’ the jobs.
Pandemic/WFH upset simple ideas about hours at the desk/watercooler and ‘productivity’.
No shortage of jobs needing done. No agreement about how to pay for them. No doubt that the rich are getting richer.
No idea if they are getting more “productive”…
Posted 1 year ago # -
If only there was an AI that could fix my spelling as I type! At least that will be here soon...
When folks talk about productivity, I don't think it is at the individual level, or at least not most of the time.
I think it's more about the boomers dying, and each generation since being smaller, and so the workforce is shrinking, and so Western economies are stagnant because there's not so many people to do the work. Of course other things like Brexit, and a competitive market for workers has contributed. Anyway, means in long term we have to:
Shrink economy - but all the debt...
Print away the debt problem by devaluing money - but QE goes to the rich who buy assets shrinking the middle classes.
Try to make the economy grow by adding machines to the shrinking workforce."Just for clarity I'm not in the doomsday group"
But, we should listen to them, their perspective is really important, and if we don't listen and they are right we are in a lot of trouble. Listening means good regulation to preserve the human workforce.
Anyway,it's all very complicated, more variables thany brain can handle. Fun to deliberate though. :)
Posted 1 year ago # -
“
Self-driving cars need to learn the "language of cyclists" if roads are going to be safe, researchers from the University of Glasgow have said.
The team of human-computer interaction specialists have written a paper titled 'Keep it Real: Investigating Driver-Cyclist Interaction in Real-World Traffic', which suggests that more needs to be done in order to protect cyclists if self-driving cars [autonomous vehicles, or AVs] become more common.
“
Posted 1 year ago # -
New legislation to hold carmakers responsible for self-driving vehicle crashes
Users of driverless vehicles will not be liable for any fatal collisions with pedestrians under new rules laid out in the King’s Speech
Aye, this just means that car makers will be handed out a meanial fine each time they kill someone. But we know from the financial crash that CEOs and executives don't react to the threat of fines, they only react to the threat of jail time.
So unless they start jailing corporate executives every time an autonomous vehicle kills someone, AVs will keep killing people
Posted 1 year ago # -
I'm not saying it's ideal but is this not the trolley problem. Essentially we're flipping the switch and fewer people are going to be killed by drivers.
A well trained self driving car does seem to be inherently safer than a social media browsing distracted person behind the wheel.
Posted 1 year ago # -
I was overtaken by a driverless bus at Queensferry the other week. Interestingly enough it overtook me (perfectly safely) at the entrance to the filling station westbound. To do so it went into the right turn lane & overtook over the faded broken line hatchings. Pretty much as a human driver might. Whilst this isn't illegal it is a bit dubious, so I do wonder whether it didn't spot the markings or the algorithm allows it. (Of course the driver may have taken over at this point.)
https://www.google.com/maps/@55.9836669,-3.4065311,3a,75y,309.11h,71.28t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1skuxRDnCFTyQQzAPpvExARw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu
Posted 1 year ago # -
Pretty sure the "driverless" buses from Ferry Toll now have a human doing all the driving.
A well trained self driving car
Part of the utility of being able to drive in a city is the ability to intimidate, bully and even physically force other road users out of the way. Otherwise, pedestrians would simply cross the road in front of "well trained" AVs, and cyclists would ride in front of them, reducing their speed to a crawl (even more than they already are)
So, almost by definition, an AV needs to be badly behaved, in order to function
Posted 1 year ago # -
wah wah wah I hate cars....
Posted 1 year ago # -
Compared to the daily abuse I receive from drivers, and today an an angry gammon SUV driver (angry at being held up by one minute for 50-odd children cycling to school in a healthy way), you mate are chicken feed.
Perhaps "well behaved" AVs could sense when the occupants are getting angry and lock all the doors, close the windows and blow laughing gas into the cabin until they calm down?
Posted 1 year ago # -
You are about to take yet another thread off topic with your wah wah i hate cars chat.
Posted 1 year ago # -
They're hardly alone in that sentiment around these parts. Or indeed anywhere, most people have just been thoroughly socialised to keep quiet and not upset our Motoring Masters lest they start a massive row at your dinner table.
Posted 1 year ago # -
Meanwhile any discussion gets derailed... just like this one.
Posted 1 year ago # -
Please tell me which of my 3 most recent posts above are not related to driverless cars per the original topic. I'll wait...
And it seems someone has derailed a few threads with childish insults
Posted 1 year ago # -
“Thread Drift” is a CCE norm/charm/irritation.
Rule 1 is (largely) about self restraint.
Posted 1 year ago #
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