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"Are Electric Cars the future of Low Carbon Transport?"

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  • Started 14 years ago by chdot
  • Latest reply from Baldcyclist
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  1. Yodhrin
    Member

    @neddie But that isn't the thinking behind "you'll own nothing", rather it's the next phase of hyperconsumerism, one in which everyone is still expected to spend, to go into debt, to consume endlessly, except without even the promise that in the end it will all be your own "stuff". It's a future where everyone rents everything from a tiny group of owner-capital elites with all the power imbalance and erosion of rights that implies.

    To put it in some context - would you be happy *only* being able to rent out a bicycle? Like, it would be theoretically possible to own one, if you could afford to spend tens of thousands on one of the handful of luxury brands that cater to the owner-elite, but 99% of people would only have the option to take an off-the-peg model at a per-day or per-month rate, because in this proposed future essentially every product would have just a couple of brands(and I say brands because most of them regardless of sector would end up owned by a tiny handful of transnational megacorps) and rental would be their sole business model.

    This is what I mean about being careful of appearances - when people who're "in the know" about environmentalism and urbanism etc talk about moving away from car ownership, car clubs, just renting a car when you need one etc there are loads of unspoken assumptions underlying that about investing in public transport, people riding bikes & e-bikes, liveable cities, etc, that many people who're *not* immersed in the subject won't know about, and if they've previously heard similar comments from the "own nothing" neolibs then unless we're careful that's who we'll end up being lumped in with in their minds.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  2. crowriver
    Member

    My take is that folk who live car free are basically latter day refuseniks. We refuse to buy into the whole schtick that's sold to us about freedom, independence, convenience because we recognise it's a myth and much of the time untrue (though of course there are some real benefits, increasingly few and far between but real enough).

    What car owners fear is that they'll just be renting everything instead. I don't know why they fear it, because that's what large numbers of buyers of new cars do now anyway - they lease rather than buy. So there is the appeal of ownership of a possession to contend with - even if that ownership is highly contingent on paying others regularly for fuel, servicing, spare parts, insurance, parking, excise duty, etc.

    For big business, not only the manufacturers but especially the finance and leasing companies, they have a direct interest in consumers buying (or leasing) the latest, most profitable vehicle. Currently they can make bigger margins on SUVs, so these are promoted heavily and surprise, surprise people get them. This is now switching to electric cars - more new stuff, relatively expensive, if business can make a killing they'll market the hell out of them.

    Governments seem to be backing the electrification of the Great Car Economy, so I imagine that is What Will Happen. Trebles all round! (Except for refuseniks).

    Posted 2 years ago #
  3. gembo
    Member

    Certainly easier not to own a car in a city cf elsewhere

    Posted 2 years ago #
  4. neddie
    Member

    @Yodhrin

    that isn't the thinking behind "you'll own nothing"

    Ah yes, sorry, I misread / misunderstood that. Thanks for the clarification. Makes sense

    The "rent everything" model is also allowing people to have cars (and the sort of cars) that they shouldn't really e.g. a young man living at home on a modest salary can now "afford" a 200mph Audi R6 at around £800 per month.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  5. LaidBack
    Member

    With EVs and E-bikes motor software updates are required. So even if you own them the manufacturer still has some 'hold' on product.

    It reminds me of early days of having a Mac or PC too. Except making a computer or smart phone for 'everyone' on planet was obviously impossible back then - and probably still is. The computer 'elite' persuaded themselves that the pros outweighed the cons. In design the digital world had already appeared with laser typesetting pre-Mac in late 80s. Business types warmed up to tech too. Macs came in and designers put away markers, internet started and here we are.
    Personal computing seemed optimistic and genuinely new. Also allowed people in other countries to express themselves and communicate. Nokia and iPhone built on that with phones that could handle the vast amount of languages the planet has. So in a way made world more equal.
    Personal mobility in a giant metal box seems outdated however it's powered. Basically it's an imbalance and we need to downsize as making items equivalent to the energy use of a small town in Africa is crazy.
    Kerevan article from yesterday expressed it well.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  6. chdot
    Admin

    World leaders announce plan to make green tech cheaper than alternatives

    UK, US and China among countries representing two-thirds of global economy to agree to push green energy and cars

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/02/world-leaders-announce-plan-to-make-green-tech-cheaper-than-alternatives

    Posted 2 years ago #
  7. chdot
    Admin

    Active travel (walking or cycling for transport) is considered the most sustainable form of per-sonal transport. Yet its net effects on mobility-related CO2 emissions are complex and under- researched. Here we  collected travel activity data in  seven European cities and  derived life cycle CO2 emissions across modes and purposes. Daily mobility-related life cycle CO2 emissions were 3.2 kgCO2 per person, with car travel contributing 70% and cycling 1%. Cyclists had 84% lower life cycle CO2 emissions than non-cyclists. Life cycle CO2 emissions decreased by 14% per additional cycling trip and decreased by 62% for each avoided car trip. An average person who ‘shifted travel modes’ from car to bike decreased life cycle CO2 emissions by 3.2 kgCO2/day.

    https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S1361920921000687?token=DBA2E6424665C3C1B711FA6A0BA05856BC31119262A0DE5561500580B32BCC2CDFCFBA48E3C735A9299F99A56EB9F544&originRegion=eu-west-1&originCreation=20211102203153

    Posted 2 years ago #
  8. crowriver
    Member

    @chdot, ' “We” have lost the general arguments.'

    Not really. It's just that those in power chose to listen to the automotive industry and drivers instead.

    Arguably "democratic" in that drivers are the majority. Don't remember having a vote on private cars dominating public space though. So not really democratic, but definitely consumer capitalism.

    Hell, meet handcart. We're on our way!

    Posted 2 years ago #
  9. chdot
    Admin

    “Not really. It's just that those in power chose to listen to the automotive industry and drivers instead.“

    Yeah, but that’s the point, it’s convenient to listen to them. They are happy with their choices and unlikely to be swayed by arguments that would be seen as threatening their cosy way of life.

    As for ‘the rest’ whatever they believe/want doesn’t get much traction.

    Sure ‘things have changed’. Now the mainstream obsession is ‘more of the same, BUT ELECTRIC’.

    Boris was on again about green sustainable growth again today.

    No irony.

    A strategy that some might wish to believe might work for bits of the affluent ‘north’.

    Not much use to islanders whose homelands are about to drown or the increasing number likely to starve as their agricultural land has blown or washed away.

    Today’s fantasy agreement is about building back better forests (in a few years time).

    Posted 2 years ago #
  10. chdot
    Admin

    “Arguably "democratic" in that drivers are the majority.“

    Really?

    50% of world population?

    50% of world population over 17?

    50% of male adults in a few countries?

    Posted 2 years ago #
  11. chdot
    Admin

    Actually the numbers don’t matter.

    It’s about convincing enough people that their primary (or desired) identity is “driver”.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  12. chdot
    Admin

    Man on radio just said a LOT of investment in Tesla came from Edinburgh fund managers.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  13. Murun Buchstansangur
    Member

    They do - Baillie Gifford alone own around 6% of Tesla, which is a reduction from 11% a year ago

    Posted 2 years ago #
  14. gembo
    Member

    Yes Baillie Gifford had to reduce their share as they were making too much money.

    All millionaires

    But I expect they give a lot back to the needy in society (as tax breaks)

    Posted 2 years ago #
  15. chdot
    Admin

    “as tax breaks“

    Ah, irony.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  16. chdot
    Admin

  17. chdot
    Admin

    Electric cars are a classic example of the problem. It’s true that within a few years, as the advocates argue, the entire stinking infrastructure of petrol and diesel could be overthrown. But what is locally clean is globally filthy. The mining of the materials required for this massive deployment of batteries and electronics is already destroying communities, ripping down forests, polluting rivers, trashing fragile deserts and, in some cases, forcing people into near-slavery. Our “clean, green” transport revolution is being built with the help of blood cobalt, blood lithium and blood copper. Though the emissions of both carbon dioxide and local pollutants will undoubtedly fall, we are still left with a stupid, dysfunctional transport system that clogs the streets with one-tonne metal boxes in which single people travel. New roads will still carve up rainforests and other threatened places, catalysing new waves of destruction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/14/cop26-last-hope-survival-climate-civil-disobedience

    Posted 2 years ago #
  18. LaidBack
    Member

    @chdot- agree. Plus huge bits of planet used to store the millions of displaced 'unwanted' fossil fuel cars. Makers should have to recycle them - but of course people want to be paid to drive green.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  19. chdot
    Admin

  20. chdot
    Admin

    App outage locks hundreds of Tesla drivers out of cars

    https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2021/nov/20/tesla-app-outage-elon-musk-apologises

    Posted 2 years ago #
  21. crowriver
    Member

    https://youtu.be/X0oatHLTJy4

    [+] Embed the video | Video DownloadGet the Video Plugin

    Posted 2 years ago #
  22. LaidBack
    Member

    Tonight on Channel 4 at 8.30. Will it be half an hour of the 'truth'? Will Ch4 risk losing a load of car adverstisers?
    Followed by an hour of intense petrol use with Guy Martin!

    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-truth-about-electric-cars-dispatches

    Posted 2 years ago #
  23. LaidBack
    Member

    Programme pointed out that an Electric Jeep hybrid managed to emit more VoCs (Volatile organic compounds) than some petrol and diesel models.

    However industry claimed that test wasn't fair as engine hadn't warmed up. The old VW trick of never measuring an engine when it isn't running warm.

    Couple loved their semi-electric Jeep as they are nature lovers and like driving trails. They wouldn't go back to a car with one fossil fuelled engine. They like the fact that they never have to find a charger as they use petrol to generate electricity.

    That took us to the next thing which is when the Prius etc can no longer be sold or just a model for South Africa and places with less reliable electricity.
    So 'range anxiety' was addressed. This is still big worry for potential converts. Battery life was also examined. Industry suggested that you really shouldn't charge to 100% but top up to 80% and run down to 20%. (4 bars to 1 bar in E-bike land).
    A 9 year old Nissan Leaf was fuelled to this level and could only get 36 miles on range. No doubt will join an increasing pile of unwanted EVs.

    Finally, finally, was the plea that we need to increase public chargers by whatever it takes. Many out of action and incompatible to the variety of models around. If they don't then people will simply drive their EVs less...(!)

    The UK Cop26 phrase 'when the rubber hits the road' wasn't used. Nor was the fact that PM likes to emphasise how much torque an EV has (yesterday's 'speech')

    Posted 2 years ago #
  24. crowriver
    Member

    Sounds a bit like laptop batteries then. Limited number of charge cycles before battery starts to degrade, holding less charge each time, until after maybe as little as 3 or 4 years, only lasts a few hours usage. Also a maximum number of charge cycles (e.g. Apple laptops have a lifespan of c. 1000 cycles) before the battery essentially gives up.

    Presume EV batteries designed to hold charge for longer / have larger number of charge cycles. But still, must be a point, maybe 5 years in, where it will be necessary to replace with a new vehicle unless only making quite short journeys all the time.

    Could just replace battery, but other components will be starting to wear out also after that time...

    Electric bikes a bit simpler to swap battery out? Or maybe it depends on the design.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  25. LaidBack
    Member

    @crowriver - E-bike batteries from likes of Shimano and Bosch last reasonably well. I have only replaced a couple that died inside 2 year warranty. Design wise the rack top one still made for Shimano - be a shame if models couldn't get spares. Bosch currently though have only PowerPack 500Wh frame ones on the Magura B2B site.
    Last hour of charge to take from 4 bars to 5 not worth it I suppose if you have larger range 500Wh. Older models had 400Wh. Even older 300Wh.
    As you know, Bosch + Shimano update and diagnostic read outs give you all use data with percentages in each power mode and how often battery has been charged. This will motivate some to use energy frugally and pedal smarter with good use of gears and momentum to ensure battery is charged less. Complete opposite of how some people drive!

    Posted 2 years ago #
  26. crowriver
    Member

    @LaidBack, yeah 2-4 years seems reasonable given that e-bike batteries are relatively low capacity. Hopefully manufacturers will make it simple to swap out for new battery after original degrades.

    Reading up on EVs, average warranty on the battery is 5 to 8 years, which sounds about right. Cycle count only around 1500-2000 on average though, so a driver with above average mileage would see the battery die earlier. Given the cost of swapping the battery, most owners will just be getting a new EV every five years or so I expect. Hardly sustainable! Except in the sense of continuing business for manufacturers, dealers, finance companies, road construction firms, electricity suppliers...

    Posted 2 years ago #
  27. Dave
    Member

    The nice thing about an e-bike battery is that you'll probably be able to get small companies to rebuild it with fresh cells if it's out of production.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  28. chdot
    Admin

    Senior voices in the energy and motoring sectors said the plan for all new homes and buildings to be fitted with car charging infrastructure risks benefiting wealthier areas with space for off-street parking and leaving “blackspots” in areas where homes have less space.

    Instead, they argue, the government should be doing more to make convenient, high-speed car charging more accessible to the public to help give all motorists a realistic opportunity to switch their fossil fuel cars for electric versions.

    Guy Jefferson, the chief operating officer of Scottish Power’s energy network business, warned that the burgeoning electric vehicle market was “less likely to provide for all in our society” without deliberate action to ensure a fair energy transition.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/24/plan-for-car-chargers-in-all-uk-new-homes-will-make-access-exclusive

    Posted 2 years ago #
  29. neddie
    Member

    Although the batteries in EVs are essentially the same tech as those in phones and laptops, the charging regimes are entirely different.

    The life of Lithium ion batteries is shortened when charged above 80% and also when discharged below 20%. The life is determined by this, and the number of charge-cycles (typically 1000 to 2000) before capacity drops to 80% of its new condition.

    So a phone battery is typically flattened to 10% every day, then recharged daily to 100%. That's a charge-cycle every day and topped up to 100%. Battery life is typically 3 to 5 years before capacity is significantly reduced (my wife's phone is 9 years old and still going).

    An office laptop battery tends to sit on charge at 100% all day, every day and is hardly ever discharged. This is also bad for the battery. Some modern laptops better manage this by not charging to 100% when plugged in.

    However, for a modern EV, the range is typically 200 miles and they don't need charged every day. For users without home chargers e.g. people living in tenements, charging could take place only once a week at the supermarket or workplace. Battery life would be much longer than that of a phone because charging is only happening once a week (or before a long journey) instead of every day. For EVs left to charge overnight every night at home, the situation is much the same as for a laptop.

    The key to all this is intelligent charging, to maximise battery life and to maximise the use of off-peak and lowest carbon (i.e. night time) electricity. And even to supply back to the grid during peaks (5pm to 8pm)

    TL/DR

    EVs batteries last longer than the ones in phones.

    PS. I am not an EV proponent, we should get rid of all but a handful of cars in cities.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  30. Baldcyclist
    Member

    Some EV's (and home storage batteries) already manage the 10% to 80% issue by only making a part of the battery available for usage. So although the UI says 0% or 100% charged for human non confusion purposes, the battery will not operate outwith the 20-80% range. Suggest this will become the norm.

    Also once batteries are of no use to cars, they are still perfectly usable for another 10 - 20 years as a home storage battery as (weirdly) a house doesn't have as high or immediate power demands as a car. A lot of (even most) home storage batteries started out as car batteries.

    So a battery may get 30-35 years use as it moves down the chain.

    Posted 2 years ago #

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