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"Pressure on green belt as 10,000 homes to be built"

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  1. Frenchy
    Member

    "A consultation document says the birth rate in Currie Primary’s catchment has increased from 40 in 2011 to 60 in 2016."

    When I'm in charge, journalists will be forced to explicitly state the units of the data they're reporting, as well as any other data required for context.

    I presume this is "40 births per thousand population", rather than just "40 births in 2011". So what's the population of the catchment area? Has it steadily increased over the last five years, or are 2011 and 2016 extreme outliers?

    Posted 6 years ago #

  2. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Frenchy for Dictator Benign of all Caledonia!

    The data you need do not exist.

    Posted 6 years ago #

  3. gembo
    Member

    @Frenchy, the size of Currie has also increased over the time period with new houses being built (quite a few in Curriehill Prinmary School playground and where the school was). Not sure how NetherCurrie will expand as it is a small school but overall this redesign puts pupils to their nearest schools. Which is good.

    One major pressure is the new village that has been built between Currie and Blinkbonny in the WoL flood plain.

    Traffic more noticeable on the road now, though still managing the WoL Path most mornings which goes right passed that development but no cyclists.

    Posted 6 years ago #

  4. Murun Buchstansangur
    Member

    @Frenchy

    The source doc is here:

    https://consultationhub.edinburgh.gov.uk/cf/copy-of-copy-of-consultation-on-proposal-to-reloca/supporting_documents/SW%20Catchment%20Change%20%20Consultation%20Paper%20October%202018%20FINAL.pdf

    In this case, I don't there is any missing denominator - the report is literally just saying that 60 births occurred with Currie PS' existing catchment area in 2016, regardless of whatever the adult population is.

    What I don't understand is that it then goes on to say that Currie PS' P1 intake in August 2018 was 83 pupils. Seems a remarkable excess over the quoted birth rate, even allowing for the extent of new developments.

    Posted 6 years ago #

  5. gembo
    Member

    83 sounds about right - we need the birth rate for roughly 2013 though maybe some jan/Feb deferrals till the following year, then new builds bringing in young families, that is who moves to the area. Also P1 max of 25 per class so if went to 76 5 year olds in the catchment - easily 7 oput of catchment getting in as would be 3.5 or 4 classes

    Posted 6 years ago #

  6. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/388-homes-planned-for-derelict-land-on-leith-harbour-1-4832232

    Posted 6 years ago #

  7. crowriver
    Member

    @gembo, "easily 7 oput of catchment getting in as would be 3.5 or 4 classes"

    Presumably CEC Education officials know exactly how many were out of catchment placement requests, as you have to apply to them to get you bairn transferred.

    Posted 6 years ago #

  8. crowriver
    Member

    Addendum: School roll projections for Edinburgh until 2027 here.

    http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/info/20256/school_places/1551/school_roll_projections

    Posted 6 years ago #

  9. chdot
    Admin

    So, CEC is predicted 5% fewer primary pupils in 10 years.

    Wonder if it’s the same methodology as about 10 years ago when they predicted it would be necessary to shut lots of school.

    That didn’t go well.

    https://stopedinburghschoolclosures.wordpress.com

    "

    CATCHMENT areas at 16 city schools are set to be redrawn – and up to five new primaries built – to cope with an influx of thousands of extra pupils from a major bout of housebuilding over the next decade.

    "

    (4 years ago)

    Posted 6 years ago #

  10. gembo
    Member

    @chdot, don't think so? The numbers pretty much rising year on year but still short of the capacity?

    @crowriver, yes pupil placement quite strong on this sort of out of catchment thing

    Posted 6 years ago #

  11. crowriver
    Member

    @chdot, ??? Where are you getting that from? Total primary pupils predicted to increase by nearly 2,700 on current number, or 8.7% rise over a decade.

    Did you mistake schools capacity for current pupil numbers?

    @gembo, presume they also analyse patterns of locations where placement requests come from, how that affects local schools, factor it in to proposed catchment changes, etc.

    Posted 6 years ago #

  12. chdot
    Admin

    “Did you mistake schools capacity for current pupil numbers?”

    Probably.

    Posted 6 years ago #

  13. gembo
    Member

    @crowriver I don't thnk they do that. They do look at where houses are being built and propose some realignment. They also try to rationalise old anomalies.

    So where this worked well was in the feeders for Boroughmuir and James Gillespie High. Years back these used to be wonky almost to the extent that a child might have to walk by JGHS to get to B'muir. So this was sorted. Not too much pain. Similarly the realignment going on in Currie primaries should be ok.

    What people do not like is finding they bought in Porty but found they were catchment for Brunstane or making a bit of Currie and Juni green take 300 pupils from Wester hailes at a site close to Wester hailes.

    I used to argue that wherever you live there is always a knock effect. So if your catchment was bonnington you went out of catchment to broughton (where Hugh McDiarmid went to the big school until those stamps went missing) and if you lived broughton you went for Stockbridge and if you lived Stockbridge you made placing request for Flora's

    Posted 6 years ago #

  14. Snowy
    Member

    There is some artifice in those figures, though.

    Taking JGPS, the figures say capacity 630, currently 584 attending, so all good, right?

    But no. Not all the years are three-stream. The capacity at the moment is actually 570. And 584 attending. So not so good in reality.

    Impressed the teachers can learn 32 kids' names in a couple of days, though, some days I struggle with my own.

    Catchment on the southside is being redrawn for new primary. Will hopefully mean a more pleasant walk/cycle to school for those who currently have to brave Kilgraston Road.

    Posted 6 years ago #

  15. gembo
    Member

    @snowy - capacity will be determined by number of available classrooms as a starting point.

    So in a three stream year group all the way through (e.g. I think S Morningside)

    That gives 3x25 + 75 for p1 and 3x33 x6 for p2-p7 - add them together 669?

    assuming the school has 21 classrooms.

    Some complications - some year groups might have a composite class, some year groups might be team taught (you can go above the 33 max in a class by having two teachers again there is a calculation around cubic capacity of the space

    Some other factors - some schools have nurseries attached but nurseries do not have catchments. This should not affect these figures but it does confuse sometimes when trying to estimate who might be there in P1 -= hence the need for address corroboration, council tax payment for that address and indeed trying to make decade long predictions

    Some primary schools are bigger than secondary schools

    Dunbar primary maybe has 1200 pupils roughly

    Posted 6 years ago #

  16. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/new-village-with-up-to-1500-homes-planned-between-dalmahoy-and-ratho-1-4838439

    https://twitter.com/spokeslothian/status/1069649945521737728

    Posted 5 years ago #

  17. gembo
    Member

    'Struth, Hatton Mains is a farm and a tennis court just now. 1500 houses, no shops, no schools. Still, handy for the A71 and the Toby Carvery pub

    Posted 5 years ago #

  18. Snowy
    Member

    Wow.

    1500 homes is 2 or 3 (or more) times the size of Ratho itself. The new 'village' could easily fill the countryside between the A71 and existing Ratho.

    Posted 5 years ago #

  19. gembo
    Member

    Some fibs about catchment schools bring switched to Dean park and Balerno which they claim have extensions planned. Now both schools are on a list for renovation but they are way down that list.

    No mention of Ratho Primary (not catchment and quite full but nearer the development than Balerno)

    Towpath for cycling mentioned twice

    Talk of an improved bus service. Cuh mon it will be 3000 more motors on. The A71

    Posted 5 years ago #

  20. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/education/edinburgh-school-catchment-review-parent-pleads-for-spirit-of-unity-1-4838031

    Posted 5 years ago #

  21. gembo
    Member

    Jeez, even the chap the article is about is saying it is a non story. Do not panic, no house prices will be lowered by these proposals

    Posted 5 years ago #

  22. Arellcat
    Moderator

    Cuh mon it will be 3000 more motors on. The A71

    can't handle that many.

    I look at the bypass every morning as I cross at Lothianburn, and every time I wonder, "where is everyone going?" Alas from my A71 training rides last year I already know the answer, which is "the M8".

    Posted 5 years ago #

  23. Snowy
    Member

    Wonder if there are any recent figures about the number of cars on the A71 at rush hour around Hermiston.

    If cars are following the 2-second safety spacing rule (ha ha) then in theory the road can handle 1800 per hour in each direction? And we know it's already very very busy. So the idea of deliberately planning for another 2 or 3 thousand onto that road is simply bonkers.

    When you also consider the proposed 1300+ houses about to be built just off Gogar Station Road, 50% of which might also join the A71 at rush hour, there are clearly a lot of planners who have their heads in the sand about this.

    Posted 5 years ago #

  24. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/noisy-neighbours-force-edinburgh-zoo-s-pandas-to-move-1-4851636

    Posted 5 years ago #

  25. chdot
    Admin

    “

    Springwell House on Gorgie Road will be converted into 39 apartments, while seven town houses will be built in an extension. Developers, AMA New Town Ltd, will not provide a single affordable home as part of the scheme or any funding for the council to build any social housing, due to “exceptional circumstances”.

    “

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/row-over-social-housing-needs-as-gorgie-development-approved-1-4854243

    Posted 5 years ago #

  26. neddie
    Member

    Well, this is a slippery slope of rule breaking, isn't it?

    What with the Corstorphine development having no affordable houses either and no access for disabled/elderly unless they make use of a two tonne combustible metal box.

    Posted 5 years ago #

  27. chdot
    Admin

    “Well, this is a slippery slope of rule breaking, isn't it?”

    Or just “exceptional circumstances” becoming the ‘new normal’.

    As said on other thread (paraphrasing) when most businesses get left with overvalued stock they go bust. Developers get concessions.

    Posted 5 years ago #

  28. ejstubbs
    Member

    "only a 3 per cent profit"

    There's an old saying: no-one ever made a loss by taking a profit.

    One might to tempted to suggest that "exceptional circumstances" could be interpreted in this case to mean "the developer is exceptionally greedy"?

    Posted 5 years ago #

  29. Ed1
    Member

    Affordable housing as a planning requirement seems pointless and slightly unfair, why should a developer have to pay for affordable housing any more than bank, bar, architects, doctors or any other business or person would seem fairer to be on general taxation. It seems an unfair "tax" in some respects.

    How much the councillor (or who ever) pay out their salary towards affordable housing?

    It also seems a little pointless, as since the legalisation came in in 1990, both blue and red labour have sold well over a million council houses since. There is not enough developments to steam the tide. There is no means testing in the sales of council houses.

    The council may be better re-nationalising the council houses than the almost a gimmick of trying to get developers to built the odd affordable house now and again. Its central and to less extent local government poor policy decisions over a long time that created the problem may require central and local government solutions rather than a small scale gimmick to fix.

    Posted 5 years ago #

  30. Morningsider
    Member

    Ed1 - the legislation allowing this to happen has existed since at least 1972. Its use to deliver "affordable housing" only came into being following the collapse in funding for the building of council/social housing in the 1980s/90s. In effect, it is a work around - trying to capture some of the land value uplift created by the granting of planning permission and use it to create affordable homes.

    My solution to the "housing crisis" -

    1. local authorities masterplan development of an area
    2. local authorities allowed to compulsorily purchase land at current use value
    3. use land value uplift as collateral to borrow money from a public infrastructure bank
    4. local authority develops area in public interest
    5. rents are used to pay back loans

    The private sector undertake the actual development, making a reasonable profit.

    Might sound like looney-left nonsense, but is actually commonplace in many European countries.

    Posted 5 years ago #

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