http://www.ctc.org.uk/blog/chris-peck/government-predicts-cycling-will-fall-2040
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Cycling News
"Government predicts cycling will FALL by 2040"
(36 posts)-
Posted 11 years ago #
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We'll all be in hovercars, right?
Posted 11 years ago # -
Mobility scooters for the morbidly obese more like.
Posted 11 years ago # -
This seems to be the key issue:
"All told, the NTM 'predicts' a 43% increase in levels of car use by 2040. But, crucially, the modellers do say that this assumes "no change in government policy beyond that already announced."
The problem, however, is that although the NTM is only supposed to be a guide to what might happen, it is treated by policy makers as the inevitable outcome that we must plan for.
This is the 'predict and provide' approach that, in essence, is a self-fulfilling prophecy: your model predicts that car use will continue untrammelled, and further predicts huge congestion problems that might result. So, in order to prevent that congestion, you build new roads and plan new developments around everyone driving for 2/3rds of their trips and, decades later, hey presto: that's what happens!"
Posted 11 years ago # -
In climate change modelling, there are attempts to predictively model under various scenarios related to implementation of different policies. It surely would make sense to do this in the case of transport. Then one could see the benefits of different policies. Ideally there would be feedback - so active travel leading to fitter populations leading to more sustained active travel.
Posted 11 years ago # -
Surely another issue is that any drop in car journeys or car sales or petrol sales is seen as a "problem" and one that needs to be solved by making driving cheaper so people do it more often. With that attitude things are never going to change.
Posted 11 years ago # -
Actuarial modelling also considers user-defined non-determined parameters like changes to regulatory/legal requirements alongside predicted population/demographic progression. Any traffic prediction/modelling department worthy of the name would surely have run a few different scenarios besides the simple 'BRRRRMMMM!' default they're stuck on.
Posted 11 years ago # -
There is seperate model for Scotland - Transport Model for Scotland 2007 (TMS07). I am not aware of any transport policy decisions being taken based on the general predictions of this model - rather it is used to assess possible outcomes of specific proposed schemes. In fact, I'm not aware of any strategic thinking behind any transport infrastructure decisions having been made in the last 10 years.
Interestingly, there is to be a Scottish Government debate in the Scottish Parliament next Wednesday (13 November) entitled "Modernising Scotland's Transport Infrastructure - Meeting the challenges of the 21st century". The text of the motion isn't available yet, but I'm sure there will be lots on A9 and A96 dualling, ScotRail franchise renewal and the new Network Rail control period. Might be worth bringing his to the attention of cycle campain groups, so they can lobby MSPs to ensure that cycling gets a look in amongst the mega projects - which are just sooooo 20th century.
Posted 11 years ago # -
So, "Modernising" actually means "More of the same, Keith"?
Posted 11 years ago # -
I don't know if this is still the case (although I suspect it is), but just a few years ago DfT's projections around car use/demand were based on the price of oil falling over the next 50 years - lo and behold, that led to loads more car demand.
I would hope that's been revised, but I would not be at all surprised if it hasn't. Afterall, shale gas is going to be so cheap, and I suppose cars are all going to be electric now BMW have launched their one...
Posted 11 years ago # -
thanks Morningsider - I've written to my MSP (Jim Eadie) to ask him to bring up cycling - he's certainly pro-cycling from what I can tell... I read from a link on here a really good article explaining the economic benefit of supporting cycling, but I can't find it now - I wonder if there's any point sending the MSPs links to such things.
Posted 11 years ago # -
As has been noted...
Many alternatives to driving can barely cope capacity wise.
Cycle lanes (and zig zag ramps!) seem to be built on the assumption that levels will never increase that much. We're just seeing some welcome improvements in some areas like NWM and the route to Forth Bridge (lots more to do though)
On the railway we still have single track rail sections between the central belt and cities in the north.
Posted 11 years ago # -
Actuarial modelling also considers user-defined non-determined parameters like changes to regulatory/legal requirements alongside predicted population / demographic progression.
Blimey, wingpig. Do you work for the Government? :) I think that really means 'known unknowns', in the context of horizon scanning.
shale gas is going to be so cheap, and I suppose cars are all going to be electric
Beware of the Jevons Paradox, where increases in efficiency of production can actually lead to increases in total consumption of a resource. In the form of the Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate, mega cheap energy or super efficient electric cars will inevitably encourage people to use energy or drive their cars more, not less. But if gross energy prices decrease, why should a Government not cover the resulting revenue gap by increased taxation to the consumer? This would effectively keep the commodity price high, and stabilise demand.
Posted 11 years ago # -
Posted 11 years ago #
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'Completely' off topic.
Wishful thinking?
Self fulfilling prophecy?
Don't believe the hype?
So - if Edinburgh house prices go up (and interest rates won't remain at 'all time low for ever') less money for driving or more Fife and Lothian commuters??
Posted 11 years ago # -
It's a sure thing! Prices can only go up! Where have we heard that before. Ah yes, I think it was estate agents wasn't it, who are in the market of profiting from more houses selling for more money.
If anyone could accurately predict the future rise in housing prices then they'd already be billionaires and we'd never have ended up in the credit crunch and global recession.
Posted 11 years ago # -
There is still a 'reality gap' between what sellers are asking and what buyers are paying.
I doubt house prices will go up much any time soon. We've still to get through the worst of the recession. When the interest base rate goes up from 0.5%, then I'll believe we're out (or starting to come out) of the recession.
Posted 11 years ago # -
The headline is (surprise) misleading - it talks of prices soaring - but, but, but,that is by 2018.
A headline of 'Prices to increase at slightly less than 3.5% compound over the next 5 years' is not quite so attractive !!
I predict the EEN headlines will be 18% more ridiculous by this time next week.................
Posted 11 years ago # -
@algo "I've written to my MSP (Jim Eadie)"
Don't forget you also have those on the Lothian List.
Spokes has sent this this to all local MSPs -
"
To: MSPs in Edinburgh and Lothian
Dear MSP
I am writing on behalf of Spokes with regard to the Scottish Government debate in the Scottish Parliament next Wednesday (13 November) entitled "Modernising Scotland's Transport Infrastructure - Meeting the challenges of the 21st century"
We very much hope that the role of cycling as a potentially very important form of local transport will feature in the debate, helping as it does towards objectives on congestion, emissions and public health.
Local transport needs revolutionising just as much as the long-distance inter-city travel on which the debate may tend to focus. You may be aware of increasing moves in English cities to create greatly improved urban cycle networks. For example...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/dutchstyle-bike-lanes-set-for-rollout-in-bristol--britains-cycling-capital-8923311.htmlIn particular, we draw your attention to the Spokes NPF3 proposal for one cycle-friendly town or city in each Scottish local authority (linked by the national network) as a means of initiating change throughout the country, and helping foster the necessary expertise in all local authorities. I attach our NPF3 proposal and hope you might consider asking for this to be adopted in the final NPF3. The proposal document includes in its addendum justifications under the various NPF3 criteria.
Yours Sincerely
Dave du Feu
for Spokes"
Posted 11 years ago # -
thanks chdot - will copy my e-mail to the lothian list...
Posted 11 years ago # -
And as if by magic...
ECB cuts benchmark rate to 0.25%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24851483
We're not out of the woods yet...
Posted 11 years ago # -
I'd like to re-arrange the title of this thread to;
"cyclists predict Government will FALL by 2040"
Posted 11 years ago # -
Nah, the Government is always in...
Posted 11 years ago # -
(As the thread has gone sideways)
"
EDINBURGH is going head-to-head with the likes of New York, Boston, Sydney and Dubai after being named as an international property hot spot."
Don't believe the hype.
Posted 11 years ago # -
@kaputnik: "Like".
Posted 11 years ago # -
Don't believe the hype.
Like the one about the Apple store?
Posted 11 years ago # -
Wot u mean there isn't going to be one in Princes St??
Posted 11 years ago # -
Private Eye -
Posted 11 years ago # -
chdot - Don't believe the hype.
kaputnik - Like the one about the Apple store?
chdot - Wot u mean there isn't going to be one in Princes St??
http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/edinburgh-apple-store-princes-street-delay-1-3190119Today the Evening News can reveal the frustrating news that there have been hitches in converting the former fast food restaurant into a sleek new unit fit for the uber-cool technology corporation.
Posted 11 years ago # -
"Today the Evening News can reveal the frustrating news that there have been hitches in converting the former fast food restaurant into a sleek new unit fit for the uber-cool technology corporation."
Frustrating? I'll survive. I've made it this far in life without an Apple product (unless you count Quicktime, and I uninstalled that years ago).
Posted 11 years ago #
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