CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!

White Paper (THE #indyref thread)

(2915 posts)
  • Started 11 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from chdot
  • This topic is closed

1…131415…98

  1. gembo
    Member

    Personally, I do not need to live in an independent Scotland to feel I have self determination, as we have already mentioned .(and is now a programme on the telly with the daring MP a Rory Stewart is it, watch him jumping off walls, bends knees nicely, was it hadrians wall?) much in common with people either side of the border, less in common with south east England?

    I also feel Scotland is a separate cultural land. However I am keen on federations of nations to avoid conflict, such as EU, UK, USSR, USA.

    I am not trying to convince anyone to change their minds.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  2. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    It would appear that 'Lord' Robertson heeded my plea to eschew the minutiae of the debate;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26933998

    We are exhorted to believe that nothing short of the collapse of Western civilisation will follow a 'Yes' vote. Can someone mark this thread 'resolved'?

    Posted 10 years ago #

  3. crowriver
    Member

    'Baron' Robertson (used to work for NATO): "For the second military power in the west to shatter this year would be cataclysmic in geo-political terms."

    I seem to recall saying something earlier in this thread about the UK establishment clinging onto the last remnants of Empire. Robertson is trying to enlist the support of military strategy types in the US to help the Brit establishment maintain its global status.

    I fail to see why it is in most Scots' interests to support the supposed "second military power in the west". Or does he mean France? Frankly the pompous self-importance of the Brit establishment is starting to look very silly. All that rubbish about "punching above our weight" and other macho posturing is starting to look hollow. Robertson knows that without Scotland's tax and recruiting base, the wheels will come off rUK's military bandwagon. I don't see why that is "cataclysmic" at all, except for the careers of warmongers like Robertson.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  4. wee folding bike
    Member

    acsimpson,

    What do you think happens to Sterling if it loses us? Will the value increase, stay the same or plummet further than it already has with QE?

    Further to George Robertson (stuff his feudal title), on the one hand they have told us we will have no influence in the world outwith the UK. Now it seems we can bring down the whole of the western world.

    gembo, who do you expect us to be in conflict with? We have no naval and little military force here. The Russians had an aircraft group in the Pentland Firth twice. The UK gov found out about on Facebook and it took two days for a ship to check it out.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  5. crowriver
    Member

    As for Robertson's grasp of democracy and self-determination. Apparently independence and self-determination is good for Kosovo, but not for Afghanistan. Not good for Iraq either, neither for Scotland. Needed to invade Afghanistan and Iraq apparently; also necessary to bomb Serbia so Kosovo could issue UDI. However according to Robertson the borders of the United Kingdom must remain unchanged, or the result will be "cataclysmic".

    Posted 10 years ago #

  6. slowcoach
    Member

    re Kosovo. I haven't listened to all the speech but I think Robertson said that some EU countries haven't recognised Kosovo as an seperate country, so we shouldn't count on them accepting everything a seperate Scottish government might want (like EU membership, currency, NATO membership ...?).

    Posted 10 years ago #

  7. acsimpson
    Member

    @WFB, At the risk of making a prediction about the future I suspect that without Scotland Sterling would continue pretty much unchanged, although it's future policy makers wouldn't consider any impact north of Berwick.

    @PS. Perhaps we should allow each region to have it's own vote, somewhat similarly to the way Irish independence ended up working.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  8. wee folding bike
    Member

    So Sterling loses 10% of its tax base, without taking hydrocarbons into consideration, and the UK loses a big chunk of collateral with no effect on the currency?

    Why do people assume that Sterling belongs to the former UK? Are we not equal partners in a Union? Surely Sterling is as much Scotland's as the rest of the Union, or was that equal partner thing not true?

    Posted 10 years ago #

  9. crowriver
    Member

    @slowcoach, the issue with the comparison to Kosovo is that it declared independence unilaterally, in the face of armed opposition from Serbia. More like Ireland and England in 1916 than Scotland 2014. Somehow I can't see NATO air strikes on key installations across England in order to secure Scottish independence.

    Anyway Robertson is beyond parody. A few gems from today's speech:

    "a torrid, difficult and debilitating divorce..it is far from scaremongering to use the term Balkanization"

    Er.....I think that is the very definition of scaremongering!

    "Forces of darkness would love it" if Scotland votes for independence, "giving the dictators, the persecutors, the oppressors the biggest Christmas present of their lives."

    Hyperbole ad absurdam!

    So, if Robertson is to be believed, an independent Scotland is the biggest threat to global security since Saddam Hussein, Colonel Gaddafi or Slobodan Milosevic. Hold on a minute though, haven't Bitter Together been telling us all this while that we're Too Wee, Too Poor and Too Stupid to be independent?

    Make you minds up, chaps!

    Posted 10 years ago #

  10. acsimpson
    Member

    @WFB.

    So Sterling loses 10% of its tax base, without taking hydrocarbons into consideration, and the UK loses a big chunk of collateral with no effect on the currency?
    If you consider that it will also be loosing more than 10% of it's liability then it's not as surprising as you make it out to be.

    Why do people assume that Sterling belongs to the former UK? Are we not equal partners in a Union? Surely Sterling is as much Scotland's as the rest of the Union, or was that equal partner thing not true?

    Sterling will belong to the former UK as they will be left with a largest part of the debt which underwrites it. We could of course spend many millions cloning it as we would have to do with so many other national institutions so that we can retain our own Sterling if that is what the politicians decided.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  11. crowriver
    Member

    More on those forces of darkness:

    Posted 10 years ago #

  12. chdot
    Admin

    Click for full image!!

    Posted 10 years ago #

  13. wee folding bike
    Member

    acsimpson,

    More than 10 of liability? How would you work that?

    And no, all of the liability belongs to Westminster. They have accepted it.

    We don't need to clone it. We can just use it. No matter how many threats and how much bluster comes from Westminster they can't stop that nor would they want to.

    We already have many institutions and can sub contract others. We already pay for them within the UK. The BBC would be substantially cheaper on that basis. We already know how much it costs Eire.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  14. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Still, we can be reassured that 'Baron' Robertson will leave parliament at the next Baronial election. The voters of Port Ellen will be horrified at his hyberbolic rantings and elect a new Baron to represent them.

    What's that you say? He sits in parliament until he dies? Regardless of what he does or how many swivel-eyed perorations he delivers? And he combines that job with being a director of the Weir Group?

    Ah, well. That's the Mother of Parliaments for you.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  15. wee folding bike
    Member

    Would that be the same Weir group who had a report out last week?

    Surely not.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  16. acsimpson
    Member

    @WFB, I took your estimate of 10% of the income and multiplied it by the Barnett Formula. There is no denying that we are free to use Sterling in much the same way that many South American (and other) nations have used USD over the years. What we can't do however is influence Sterling monetary policy.

    Your right again we can sub contract some functions but again at what price? And will the agencies we contract to have our interests at heart?

    @Crowriver, Did you really feel that your arguments are so irrelevant that you would stoop to name calling so that others would ignore them? I could come up with many insulting names for the anti union campaigners but a public where people are trying to have a grown up discussion isn't the place.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  17. Charterhall
    Member

    The aggressive tone of the cybernats is causing me growing concern. In the at this point unlikely event of them winning, what sort of retribution could be heading the way of those who didn't vote for them ? But perhaps more worryingly, in the event of a no vote, are they going to quietly and peacefully accept the verdict ? The SNP have stirred up such a passion amongst some of their number it won't be easy to stand them down.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  18. wee folding bike
    Member

    acsimpson,

    Have you any evidence that the Barnett formula works like that? We know that we pay more tax per head than the UK average so perhaps you're right. We have been net contributors to the Union as far back as records are available, perhaps Westminster expects us to continue that after the Union is dissolved.

    What makes you think that UK agencies have our interests at heart now? Check the non existent costal defences or the HS2 plans. For years I got the bus up/down to London most weekends. The motorway stopped at Carlisle back then. I wonder why that was.

    Pintail,

    That's the message that No have been sending this week but, thus far, the only known assault was an elderly Yes campaigner on the Royal Mile who had his wrist broken. There was also this guy from the SDL, http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-face-of-no/

    Did you have in mind the anonymous Edinburgh MP, Ian Murray, who had a story in the Hootsmon a few days ago? He claimed intolerable threats and menaces which turned out to be a couple of stickers on his office wall. Mr Darling was pushing the same message this week too and then George Robertson jumped the shark in spectacular style. If Mr Murray really is terrified of stickers then the Labour party has changed a lot since I knew them. More here, http://wingsoverscotland.com/playing-with-fire/#more-53087

    Posted 10 years ago #

  19. Instography
    Member

    The Barnett formula doesn't work like that.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  20. cc
    Member

    To be fair to Ian Murray he did have to face a barrage of incredulous jokes at his expense on twitter. Perhaps that upset him.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  21. wee folding bike
    Member

    A guy with this dress sense has probably gone beyond incredulous jokes:

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aCjTdZGn4fk/UgOFmYCEPYI/AAAAAAAAEro/tFqXw4ml2Tk/s1600/glasto+MPs.png

    The lady beside him is my MP, Pamela Nash. Yes, the one who forgot to turn up for her own debate.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  22. gembo
    Member

    I am old enough to remember the last referendum. 1979 for devolved assembly. Passions ran high then too. Amongst those who were interested. The yes vote won as I recall but not by the 40% of total electorate needed. Again I have no doubt I will be well corrected if I get any of this wrong. Turnout however was modest, 63%, of whom 51.62% voted yes. So 32.5% of the electorate. The actual majority was circa 78,000 votes . 1.23m Yes and 1.15m No and another figure which I am going to estimate as the biggest number. Say 1.3m who did not exercise their vote.

    The Lothian YES at the time was by a very small margin. 800 votes on about 375000 votes cast. Which feels like Jed Bush Florida and margin of error territory

    This time round is the estimate not still about 1 million undecided? Imagine if these numbers were repeated. The YEs vote wins with a third of the electorate, another slightly smaller third were against this and another slightly bigger third didn't bother voting.

    Turnout might get up to 70% this time round? But with the rules as they are a vociferous minority will still be the winner, either way.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  23. wee folding bike
    Member

    There has actually been another referendum since '79… it was in all the papers.

    More than one in fact but the Westminster voting one wasn't hyped up much. I decided to vote the way David Cameron didn't want but it was a close call between that and drawing a picture of a dog.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  24. gembo
    Member

    Sorry, should have made it very clear I was talking about the 1979 devolution referendum which would have initiated a devolved assembly in I believe the old Royal High School building if 40% of the total electorate had voted yes.

    The 1997 referendum, known as the YES YES vote was supported by all parties except the Tories. On a lower turnout of 60% there was a 75% yes vote or by my calculations 45% of the total electorate. Pushing this, 15% of total electorate voted No and 40% did not vote.

    Numbers on the second vote regards tax raising powers were a little different. Dumfries and Galloway and Orkney voted against this. All other authorities voted YES yes with big margins.

    Given that only the Tories were against this I do not recall the same heated debates?

    Sorry, when I say Tories I mean Tories and Tam Dayell

    My own version of democracy known as Gembocracy does not allow cataclysmic events to occur if the largest group in the election is those who did not vote. In a Gembocracy the 1979 referendum outcome was correct as despite a narrow yes vote there were many many more people who declind to express an opinion than voted yes or no. However, in a Gembocracy the 1997 result is also correct as the largest group were those who voted yes 45% of the electorate as opposed to 40% who didn't bother.

    In a Gembocracy in 2014 winning by a Jed Bush dimpled chad margin on a modest turnout would be rejected but winning by a minority of the electorate but with the biggest number of votes cast would be Ok.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  25. chdot
    Admin

    "To be fair to Ian Murray he did have to face a barrage of incredulous jokes at his expense on twitter. Perhaps that upset him."

    Not defending cybernats, abuse, Twitter, Ian Murray or anything else, but I would have thought he would have got more abuse from being a prominent Hearts supporter!

    Given how much 'we' despise the mentality of (some) Evening News commentators, it's perhaps better to ignore all the 'froth' and foaming mouths.

    Whatever happens in September I don't really think there will be too many knocks on the door in the middle of the night or 'citizens' takeovers' orchestrated by non-NATO countries, or permanent levels of silence like in some mining communities.

    But I could be wrong...

    Unfortunately much of this thread is about the unknown unknowns - which is not a comment on the posters.

    One side (again not referring to posters) is over-exaggerating how wonderful/easy to create an Independent Scotland it would be. In addition the SNP view of that - not least because it created the White Paper - is currently prevailing - but there is no certainty that they will form the next Holyrood Government, or be able to do it all if they win the next Scottish election.

    The Better Together side is clearly losing its argument which can be (inaccurately) described as 'don't worry, everything is fine with the UK and always will be, all you have to do is vote No and leave it to Westminster'. Or (from Labour) 'don't worry, everything is fine with the UK and always will be, all you have to do is vote No - we will be running Westminster from next year'.

    But both 'sides' largely forget that 'the Scottish People' clearly wanted some form of more devolution which politicians decided couldn't be a referendum option.

    Arguable Salmond's version of Indy - keep the Queen and the Pound - is 'just a variety of devolution' - which isn't enough for some people!

    Whatever happens (Yes or No) isn't the end of it. If Yes, long and testy negotiations. If No (I believe) a concerted effort for a lot of SNP MPs next year to leverage more devo.

    Of course if the No coalition of Unionist parties had got their act together to agree on a 'lowest common denominator' list of guaranteed extra devo, they probably wouldn't be losing ground as they seem to be doing.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  26. wee folding bike
    Member

    Johann Lamont supported No in '79. I don't know which side she was on in '97.

    It's even possible that I met her back then. She was in Castlemilk High and I did the odd day there. Mostly I remember they had a late finish because the lunch hour was more than an hour. It's also the only school where I think I dosed off in class. It was a 2 hr art prelim.

    I didn't vote in the '97 one because I'd flitted and hadn't updated the register in time.

    Tam Dayell is entertaining but not as good as Dennis Skinner's line last week where he claimed that half of the Tories were crooks. When challenged to retract he then said that half of the Tories aren't crooks.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  27. wee folding bike
    Member

    Labour don't seem to agree within their own party on what they will do after a No.

    Ms Lamont was just incoherent when interviewed during the conference. Since then written answers from MSPs and MPs have been contradictory. We don't know for sure what they will or will not allow on tax. Since it's largely a beefed up version of what we already have, and don't use, I'm not convinced it matters. We would be getting responsibility for gathering taxes rather than powers for gathering taxes.

    I think Thomas Galbraith is putting together the Tory proposals but I don't know when they will be published. Soon would be good. Iain Lang has said he wants to leave it until after September.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  28. PS
    Member

    The Better Together side is clearly losing its argument which can be (inaccurately) described as 'don't worry, everything is fine with the UK and always will be, all you have to do is vote No and leave it to Westminster'.

    I'm not even sure I have heard them articulate this argument. A little bit of concentrating on the benefits of staying in the union that don't focus on the "and you will lose this, and you won't get Dr Who" stuff would be a start. Or are they doing this but it's not getting picked up in the press?

    Posted 10 years ago #

  29. gembo
    Member

    Beast of bolsover gives great heckles. Wish I had kept my file of his quotes. Resign he shouted at John Major as he hesitated at start of his first speech as PM.

    How did you get to Ireland when ferries and airports on strike? I walked on water.

    I worked chateau au Lait 1997 too ( 1979 we were both at school in Ayrshire). Ally Bain's brother Davie was my man in high school in his denim jacket.

    Tam dean burn did his James Joyce thing in the field on way to EK. I was amazed his wee stage not torched. Third eye centre ran a bus but Joyce McMillan made her own way there (in taxi) she had a lovely time in her review. The night was balmy, the natives friendly on lanliq, eldorado, four crown, buckfast, df118s and wacky backy.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  30. wee folding bike
    Member

    PS,

    It's easy enough to check the Better Together web page and get their message direct from the source.

    I don't like new Dr Who anyway. I watched Revenge of the Cybermen at the weekend, it wasn't very good either. We know how much the BBC charges Ireland for shows and it's less than we pay in licence fees just now. I'd be happy with a big discount and just BBC2, 4 and Radio 4. The only thing I watch on BBC1 is HIGNFY. The rest of it seems to be soaps, shows about buying stuff and cooking.

    Posted 10 years ago #

RSS feed for this topic

1…131415…98

Topic Closed

This topic has been closed to new replies.


Video embedded using Easy Video Embed plugin