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White Paper (THE #indyref thread)

(2915 posts)
  • Started 11 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from chdot
  • This topic is closed

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  1. gembo
    Member

    Labour Party moved to centre under Tony Blair, or of course Tory Blair as we called him. He was slightly more left wing than thatcher and major but he would never go to war without a sexed up dossier.

    SNP moved to left under Salmond? Or just stuck to good middle of road old school labour policies such as free education, free care for the elderly that oil/Barnett/small population seemed to help with?

    This seems to be the narrative that many believed that they were voting for a leftist party? Traditional labour voters appear to be drifting back to labour? Habit, or realisation that SNP no more radical than labour?

    I am not saying this analysis is correct, I am querying what I am saying.

    my gut instinct is independence Lite = same old bams, just with some more tartan tassels.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  2. crowriver
    Member

    Out of curiosity I was checking the Referendum web site. Seems a few answers to questions had to be updated due to changes, eg. status of Network Rail will change from 1 September 2014, from a company limited by guarantee, to a central government body. Interesting (to me).

    Also, it seems from the Referendum Bill that the results will be counted at local authority area level. I can foresee maps of Scotland on the telly during the count, with each local area changing colour according to how it voted. Also the media will no doubt fixate on the traditional race to see which area reports its count first. Would have thought Midlothian, given its size, would be a contender.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  3. wee folding bike
    Member

    Labour was moving right under Kinnock, subsequently elevated and behind the company which screwed up the 2007 election.

    He had John Smith on the rubber chicken circuit trying to butter up big business. I know I'm supposed to think that John Smith walked on water, the swimming pool in Airdrie is named after him, but I suspect that he would have differed from Mr Blair in degree rather than direction. We might not have been though two pointless wars in the middle east but even Mr Smith wasn't going to head a party like Michael Foot had tried to.

    Labour who like Trident, engage in wars for oil and brought in tuition fees? That Labour? Keir Hardy's Labour party is dead. They might have been radical 100 years ago but now they're just the other cheek in Westminster.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  4. wee folding bike
    Member

    Found this,
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_Rail

    In December 2013 the ONS Announced that from 2014 Network Rail will be classified as a "government body". This means that the company's debt will be counted as part of the national debt. This will increase Government debt by £30 billion, equivalent to 2% of GDP.[47]

    Looks like more of an accounting thing than a substantial change. Friend on the Facebooks reminded me that Mr Farage is on HIGNFY. Better check he's getting told off.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  5. PS
    Member

    It's an accounting change but, given the government has been very careful not to be seen to be instructing or controlling Network Rail in any way in order to ensure it didn't come on balance sheet, the change *could* mean that government can get a bit more hands on in directing NR. I get the impression they haven't quite thought through what they should do with this now.

    It's on balance sheet for whichever government exists in Scotland in future, anyway.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  6. Instography
    Member

    They all differ from Blair in degree rather than direction.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  7. wee folding bike
    Member

    And if the rolling stock franchises are not renewed I think they revert to us too. Does that mean the railways could come back into public ownership for little or no cost?

    Posted 10 years ago #

  8. gembo
    Member

    It would. Be nice to think that NR would be nationalised in Scotland post indepence. Ut somehow that feels unlikely.

    Party's in opposition can be as radical as they like. Then when in power they move to the right.

    SNP and coalitions before them have had powers that could have made them more radical but did not exercise them, just installed a lot of Gaelic signs.

    I am not saying labour is a radical party. Keir Hardie was iconoclastic but in fact was quite conservative in outlook. Scotland as a whole also quite conservative, Dundee elected wins ton Churchill etc. I am suggesting neither SNP nor labour radical. But SNP have spun it to appear more radical than they are. Or held their ground or a bit of their ground when others have slid rightwards?

    Farage used the Alex salmond defence on HIGNFY, ie laughed all the way through. At least when Alex salmond does his chortling routine he is just buying time to think of his answer.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  9. wee folding bike
    Member

    Dissolving the Union appears to be a fairly radical idea.

    We already have free education, prescriptions and public water. NHS Scotland is likely to avoid what has happened to the NHS in England. We aren't planning to build more nuclear power stations and even Mr Mundel recognises that Trident would have to go. That's with the town council powers which Mr Blair allowed.

    I don't see Mr Salmond laughing through all of these things. Andrew Marr was pulled up sharpish last month when he tried to get away with something. Kirsty Wark had to back track and apologise.

    Keir Hardy has one thing in common with Mr Farage. He wasn't keen on eastern Europeans being in the UK. Too much oil and garlic apparently.

    As I understand it, and I haven't looked into this a lot, the railway thing is not contingent on an Yes.

    Raining, looks like a wee trip to the Grosvenor matinee of Rio 2. I can go back there now because CAC don't own it anymore.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  10. wee folding bike
    Member

    BTW, GFT is showing That Sinking Feeling on Tuesday evening. It's being relaxed on DVD/Blueray too.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  11. Charterhall
    Member

    Better Together have been consistently way ahead in every poll but look at the number of houses displaying Yes posters - they far outnumber those showing support for the Union. The reason is Nationalist intimidation, Union supporters are afraid for their families and property if they publicly show their support.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  12. gembo
    Member

    Dissolving the union is a reactionary idea dating back to a time before the 1700s? I see John Swinney is denying U turn on trident. Alex salmond, ha,hah,Ha Jeremy? Worked the first time but then he did the laughing thing when there wasn't anything funny. Maybe someone had a word?

    Did not know you were boycotting the Grosvenor. When we were in Hillhead (Roy Jenkins, George Galloway etc) the cinema was supposedly owned by wife of John bonham? The pub Bonhams on Byres Rd would have a way in to the cinema behind? I wonder if it was the original foyer?

    Sunshine and showers in the east, off to Balerno farmers market to tell Alasdair darling to get his finger out.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  13. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @pintail

    I'd be very disappointed if you haven't just forgotten to put in the hyperlinks to the news stories of intimidation of anyone expressing an intent to vote 'No' in September. In my street (where there are people quite willing to use violence on rare occasions) there are 'Yes Scotland' and 'UK:OK' stickers on open display. There are Union flags and Saltires on car aerials.

    Ian Murray MP's synthetic 'stickergate' flurry won't really cut it for me. Oh, and here's a link to some fairly unpleasant, though ultimately harmless, belligerence.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  14. barnton-to-town
    Member

    Pintail; anything factual to base your observations on?

    Posted 10 years ago #

  15. wee folding bike
    Member

    There has been no U turn on Trident.

    Are you in favour of Ireland returning to the Union? How about India?

    I boycotted CAC after they closed the Salon. Turns out we're going to Dobbies as their sale finishes tomorrow.

    Pin,

    Another possibility is the polls are not as representative as they claim. Remember when Iain Grey was going to romp into Bute House?

    Posted 10 years ago #

  16. gembo
    Member

    No U turn in trident, that is what I said, Swinney denies.

    Northern Ireland should join up with an independent Scotland.

    No Alasdair Darling yet at the Balerno Farmers Market. Two stalls tho. Yes stall had two largely silent lads and a very nice woman and one Brompton. better together were marginally better as they had former councillor who cycles (alas Tory) and labour chap who was the most clued up. he made me laugh by suggesting that the Scottish businesses on the card the nice lady gave me made wind chimes. Lot of wind in Scotland of course. More than 50% of UK wind.

    Now I noticed the Yes stall had some lovely coloured glass to hold down their pamphlets. Sadly, when I asked if the paperweights were made of Scottish glass or if they were cheap Chinese imports I was greeted by silence.

    In interest of balance. I then went to wind up the Better Together lot.

    neither side had any detailed economic analysis although the labour chap did have a go at setting a local context for Balerno as part of Uk.

    Neither side really taking on my query about the lunacy of basing a future economy on oil to assist motor industry (even the silent SNP lads with the Brompton). I shall read the Green Yes leaflet.

    Pens were marginally better on Better Together stall.

    Apparently there is a biased YouGov poll that has the gap widening. yes campaign heckled in wester hailes last sat. Tons of people registering to vote. Nice lady did not like being called a cybernat. Seems nobody does, maybe there are only two but they are very busy?

    Lot of cyclists out for windy day, lent my track pump to group with flat fixing it outside my front yard.

    I loved the Salon cinema. Same guy sold ticket and ran projector. Last cinema in Glasgow to have a balcony.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  17. chdot
    Admin

    "Better Together have been consistently way ahead in every poll but look at the number of houses displaying Yes posters - they far outnumber those showing support for the Union."

    So some people are prepared to signal that they want a change from the status quo.

    "The reason is Nationalist intimidation"

    Fear of intimidation (real or imaginary) may be true for some people. I suspect apathy or complacency is more likely. ("Better Together have been consistently way ahead in every poll").

    "Union supporters are afraid for their families and property if they publicly show their support."

    I'm sure in some places (not just Scotland) it takes bravery to put up a Tory poster - not least because in those places being a Tory will be seen (by some) as 'other'. There can't really be many places where the possibility or certainty of voting No is particularly unusual.

    I would be surprised if the SSS is compiling a list of disbelievers for affirmative action after the Referendum.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  18. crowriver
    Member

    Nationalist intimidation, Union supporters are afraid for their families and property if they publicly show their support.

    Frankly that is hysterical nonsense.

    There may be a grain of truth in that voters who support something they pereceive to be unpopular will tend to hide their voting intentions in public, perhaps fearing disapproval. Tory voters seemed to be afflicted by such public disavowal yet private support (including in votes) at the 1992 general election. Thus the opinion polls were inaccurate, because Tory voters were lying about which way they planned to vote.

    I often wonder about the large number of "don't knows" in the opinion polls on referendum voiting intention. Do many of these people in fact know which way they will vote but do not wish to disclose it to a stranger?

    I shall read the Green Yes leaflet.

    Good for you gembo. There is a more radical alternative to the SNP, and it's been there as a choice since the start of the Scottish Parliament.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  19. gembo
    Member

    @crowriver

    About a million registered voters did not vote in the YES yes Referendum in 1997

    About same in devolution referendum 1979

    Given this once in a lifetime opportunity to not change much. I predict about one million will not vote this time round too.

    Green leaflet had a smudge about renewables. Nothing about basing an economy on oil and destruction of planet inherent within that. Nothing about cars. Same as the other leaflets but more green in colour.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  20. dg145
    Member

    @Gembo "Northern Ireland should join up with an independent Scotland."

    No, it should join up with the Republic of Ireland.

    I wonder what Wales would do in the event of a re-unified Ireland and an newly independent Scotland ...

    Posted 10 years ago #

  21. crowriver
    Member

    I predict about one million will not vote this time round too.

    And yet, people are saying the number of registered voters this year is the highest ever. Some will be the effect of extending the franchise to 16 and 17 year olds, but surely not all.

    I suspect in our somewhat dry discussions here from entrenched positions (even entrenched "don't knows") we are missing that something big is happening in Scotland just now.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  22. wee folding bike
    Member

    Unfeasible quantities of half price Miracle Gro and dozens of bedding plants. I was sent out with the trolley and not allowed to see the till.

    Had a keek at the Kelpies on the way back. Good view of them from the M9.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  23. gembo
    Member

    The film of the kelpies also good. We had the film maker Walid Salhab at our cinema in Balerno, with his earlier kinetic east. Noticed reporting Scotland did not give his name. Also noticed, maybe a week last thurs that the weather map had some curious placenames. Sometimes they have Ae or Helmdale but that day they had Brigadoon ( inland from weymms bay) and glen bogle in trossachs

    Posted 10 years ago #

  24. neddie
    Member

    I once overheard Alastair Darling buying something at the Juniper Farmers Market. He was as arrogant in real life as he is in politics.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  25. wee folding bike
    Member

    Don't expect to see Brigadoon again for a while.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  26. Instography
    Member

    If things follow their usual pattern, the level of turnout suggested by the polls (around 75%) will overstate the actual position by about 10%, suggesting that about 35% of the electorate won't vote. On that basis, gembo will be spot on.

    Crowriver said,
    "I often wonder about the large number of "don't knows" in the opinion polls on referendum voiting intention. Do many of these people in fact know which way they will vote but do not wish to disclose it to a stranger?"

    There's a few things happening the in the polls, which I could drone about at some length. Essentially, with the exception of YouGov, the internet polls have higher levels of DK and I think that's more of a click-don't-think approach to completing the survey. Panellists clicking on DK because Yes and No responses are dangerous - they risk leading to you being asked more questions. TNS, the only face-to-face pollster has very high levels of DK, which might be shy respondents, although I doubt that. I think it has more to do with TNS consistently asking how people intend to vote in September. Everyone else is trying to measure current support for each side so ask about a hypothetical referendum tomorrow. The remain pollsters - Ipsos MORI, YouGov - have about 8-10% don't know.

    But, if you analyse all of them, you can find that in various ways, each of them has about 40-45% of voters who are up for grabs. They are uncertain about voting, uncertain how they'll vote or even if they are saying Yes or No now, also say they may change their mind.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  27. SRD
    Moderator

    Just saw this on twitter.

    "@Pressuredrop: @Planet_Pedro @NewsnightScot @kdugdalemsp @JohnRentoul they [SNP] have only had 6 women MPs in 45 yrs. 3 from the same family."

    Is that true?

    Posted 10 years ago #

  28. gembo
    Member

    Yes on MPs

    Yes three from same family the Ewings (not of south fork) tans Margo McDonald

    But 18 MSPs

    Posted 10 years ago #

  29. SRD
    Moderator

    Ah, yes. That makes more sense. I think I misread it as MSPs. Thanks gembo

    Posted 10 years ago #

  30. gembo
    Member

    Slight correction, Winnie Ewing, daughter in law Margaret Ewing and her daughter Annabelle. All MPs and or MSPs Winnie's son Fergus also an MSP for SNP. He was married to Margaret. She died in 2006, quite young.

    Posted 10 years ago #

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