Just thought I'd be a dork and point out how the European election voting actually works in Scotland, for those who might not know.
It's not multiple choice or ranking candidates - you put one cross on a piece of paper against the party you want to vote for. Those parties have already picked and ranked their candidates. It's very similar to the Regional vote in the Scottish Parliament elections.
So say the result is (based loosly on recent polling) SNP 40%, Lab 25%, Con 12%, LD 8%, Ukip 7%, Green 6%, Oth 2%.
Seat one would go to the SNP's top-ranked candidate (Ian Hudghton, current MEP), and thieir score gets halved, to 20%.
Next up is Lab on 25%, their top-ranked candidate (David Martin, current MEP) gets in and their score is halved to 12.5%.
The third seat would go to the SNP's second-ranked candidate (Alyn Smith, current MEP), because at 20% they're the next highest. Their original 40% is now divided by three, to 13.3ish%.
So we've allocated 3 seats - a wee half-time round-up is in order here.
It's SNP 2, Lab 1, and the scores on the doors are SNP 13.3ish%, Lab 12.5%, Con 12%, LD 8%, Ukip 7%, Green 6%, Oth 2%.
Fourth seat therefore goes to the SNP's third-ranked candidate (Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh), and their original 40% is now divided by four, to 10%.
Labour would get the fifth seat for their second-ranked candidate (Catherine Stihler, current MEP), and their original 25% is divided by three, down to 8.3ish%.
The sixth and final seat would go to Con, at 12%, to their top-ranked candidate (Ian Duncan - a new guy).
So the final score would be SNP 3, Labour 2, Con 1.
The party missing out on that last seat is the SNP - they'd be next up at 10%. But to have taken that last seat they don't need another 2% - they'd need over 48% in totla so that when their vote is divided by four they are still over 12%.
At the last election it was SNP 2, Lab 2, Con 1, LD 1. So basically LD loses a seat to SNP (current MEP and past MSP and Minister, George Lyon, missing out).
Two very important things to note.
The first is that the lowest score anyone's getting elected with on that measure is 12%. If the Tories had a worse night than that, and fell below 10%, the SNP would be next in line to pick up a seat.
So if you vote for someone who ends up with less than about 12%, you're not voting for anyone who is going to get elected.
A significant impact of that, which is how the SNP ended up in a majority at Holyrood from 45% of the vote, is that you can basically take out the votes going to parties who don't meet that minimum threshhold altogether. So in the example above, 23% of votes are for parties who don't get elected, so it's how much of the other 77% you get that makes the difference. At 40% the SNP would have well over half of the votes that actually matter, so would get 3 or possibly 4 MEPs.
The second important thing is that it's the relative scores that matter. If a party gets more than double the share of another, they'll get two seats before that party gets one. If you're the third or fourth-placed party, you'd better beat the minimum threshhold or you'll get nothing. Also, if Labour don't get more than double the LD vote, the score will likely end up SNP 3, Lab 1, Con 1, LD 1.
Confused? You probably should be.
So tactical voting? Yes, each subsequent seat is harder to get for the bigger parties. But if you vote for someone who gets less than 12%, your vote hasn't had any impact at all.
It's a tough call. If you want to vote tactically you need to consider whether the party you're thinking of voting for can hit that magic 12-ish%.
Hope that helps someone!
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