CityCyclingEdinburgh was launched on the 27th of October 2009 as "an experiment".
IT’S TRUE!
CCE is 15years old!
Well done to ALL posters
It soon became useful and entertaining. There are regular posters, people who add useful info occasionally and plenty more who drop by to watch. That's fine. If you want to add news/comments it's easy to register and become a member.
RULES No personal insults. No swearing.
closedLooks like Boris is upset.
Use Private Browsing (Safari) or Incognito (Chrome) to get past the pay wall but there isn't much in the piece…
"I haven't really been invited to go to deliver the coup de grace. My chances of sealing the deal are probably quite small," admitted Mr Johnson.
Ravenscraig was 20 years ago. Without going into the whys and wherefores of that decision, the big difference between then and now is the Scottish Parliament. As Miliband is saying, Scotland's best future lies in us all working together to make a huge success of this.
And I agree with Boris.
Or if you don't want to lose all your browser settings, use a web proxy.
Latest bad news for Salmond, no 54% yes 34%
http://www.bettertogether.net/blog/entry/new-poll-delivers-fresh-blow-to-salmond
As Darling says,
"I am not complacent but I am not surprised by this poll. People are looking more closely at the consequences of separation - for their families, their jobs and the future of their children.
I passionately believe that Scotland - my country and its people - are better off staying in the UK. We can have the best of both worlds, with a strong Scottish Parliament with more powers, backed up by the strength, security and stability of being a partner in something bigger - the UK.
Separation risks our future. For what? Alex Salmond refuses to tell us what would replace the Pound, and can't tell us how pensions would be paid. It is realistic, not scaremongering, to expect answers to hard-headed questions of those who want to break up the UK."
Pintail,
So, are you saying you would prefer orders to go to Portsmouth? What are you saying?
If Racenscraig had shut 10 years ago would that have been ok and a bonus of the Union?
UKIP aren't in favour of Holyrood as I recall. What difference do you think they make?
How do we have influence in Westminster?
Staying with Westminster risks your future. Can you enumerate the new powers on the way after a No?
And that report on poll results doesn't say what you might think it says. Check a bit harder.
"In a YouGov survey for Progressive Partnership, published in today’s Sunday Mail, 54% of Scots backed remaining in the UK compared to just 34% supporting separation. "
And it still dosnt say what Better Together seem to think.
I thought this analysis of the poll results was pretty interesting:
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/progressive-big-swing-to-yes-but-yes-still-far-behind/
However you spin it, 54 to 34 will take some closing.
This result, from a what Prof Curtice calls a "low Yes" pollster, takes his poll of polls down to 44% Yes.
That won't take much closing.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/poll-of-polls-8-may/
They're going to need a few more million from that lottery couple. Their fortunate funding situation seems to be about the only thing they have in their favour right now.
"
SCOTLAND'S wealthiest businesswoman has vowed to give half her £500million fortune to good causes after joining a a global giveaway by the world’s richest people.
"
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/stagecoach-tycoon-ann-gloag-pledges-3525121
Though I presume she's a yes(?)
Presumably. Isn't Brian Soutar the head man of Christians for Independence? Well, not THE head man. Yer, man upstairs is that head man. The earthly representative of Christians for Independence.
Even things up for all those Labour people having to work with Tories in the No campaign when you have Soutar praying for a Yes.
Canon Kenyon Wright came out for Yes in the last couple of days. He might be in communication with itinerant Judean carpenters.
David Chillingworth is a chief 'piscy and rides a Brompton.
Do they think it'll be like South Africa or Belfast by September?
Ah, yes, I see where I went wrong there.
"
Plaid Cymru (@Plaid_Cymru)
11/05/2014 22:59
On @BBCWestminHour @JillEvansMEP says Wales needs its own voice in EU not London speaking and voting for us #Wales1st
"
"
The Scottish Green Party has called on voters to back its message of “hope” in an attempt to send the party’s first MEP to Brussels.
Candidate Maggie Chapman, who grew up in Zimbabwe, wants Scots to reject what she called the “politics of fear” put forward by Ukip.
The two parties occupy opposite ends of the political spectrum but are both vying for the sixth and final seat to represent Scotland in the May 22 poll.
Three separate opinion polls taken in April suggest Ukip has more support, putting them as high as 10%, compared with the Greens at a high of 6%.
"
Before I squander my vote, and encourage my finer significant other, friends and acquaintances to do likewise, this is all about the % of the vote, right?
For those wondering "how would Jesus vote?", there's a debate for that:
Christian Perspectives on Scottish Independence - 1930, 11 June, 204 Rose Street (Chalotte Chapel)
I'm hoping that that debate coupled with the erudite discussion here, will help form my vote, which was "no" before you guys started, but is now "don't know!".
Robert
Ah, yes, cheers for that. And interesting to see that consistency with other polls is something to be taken into consideration.
Green it is then. That'll be a first.
this is a bit scary
http://axeofreason.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/you-are-not-allowed-to-read-this-blog.html
Just back from a week in the Republic of Cyprus. Cycling facilities there seem to be better than ours in some regards. Segregated full-width cycle paths, but some of them go nowhere. Same could be said of the roads mind.
Very interesting chats with some of the locals. A particular recurring theme was total distrust of the British state. I don't know the truth of it, but they believe that they were promised independence (Britain rented the island from the Ottoman Empire and then colonised it when that empire collapsed) in return for fighting the Nazis in WWII. This did not happen, leading to a guerrilla war that eventually chased the British out of the island, with the exception of two permanent military bases. These now bristle with antennae and parabolic dishes pointing south and east.
Most property adverts are in Chinese or Russian. No one mentioned enosis, the notion of the natural union of Cyprus with Greece. Everyone mentioned that the British are masters of propaganda and will stop at nothing to keep Scotland within their power.
Just because I'm an obsessive doesn't mean there isn't something interestingly methodological about the fact that on top of Yes Scotland's apparent rethink on the value of internet polling, Lord Ashcroft, who enjoys spending his money on polls, seems to have switched his polling from online to telephone.
His commentary (follow the link) also introduced me to the idea of "comfort polling" – trying to demonstrate you are doing better than you really are. Having "momentum" I think it's called up here.
@crowriver "@calmac, it is clear you don't know what Insto does for a living, otherwise you'd not seek to educate him on opinion polls!"
And neither he nor you know what I do or my experience in statistics either. Nor my two-decade long very close following of political polling.
"I am also sceptical about the "science" of opinion polling and the claims made for it. However I've no doubt Insto knows just about all you need to know about how opinion polls are coducted, sampled and analysed."
I'd slightly disagree with you on the basis that he has called the polls on the edges outliers, without any evidence for it. So i'm certinaly not going to take his word for it.
He says he has evidence for it, but he doesn't. The truth is that either of those polls could well be spot-on. Or the real number could well be beyond them on either side.
The fact - and it is a fact - is that we can only know how good any given methodology for party political polling is when we get an election result against which to compare it. Pollsters have got closer to the final result (and each other) over a series of elections, but not before some or all have been very wide of the mark on occasions. There is nothing against which to benchmark methodology for the indyref. The last Scottish Parliament elections are the closest we have - and it's worth noting that the only poll that hit the final result was one commissioned by STV and immediately dismissed by "experts" as an outlier.
Just to take one complicating factor - a large proportion of Labour supporters will vote Yes, but the figure for this in the polls has varied enormously. It's obviously based on a samll-ish sample, but still, it does raise the question of whether there's an issue with the weighting.
May it please God that this thread not descend into an argument over chicken entrails.
I have been challenged to suggest a framework for an 'indyref supper', such that the conversation should be amicable and illuminating. I'm thinking that maybe;
* Each person declare their position (yes, no, unsure, uninterested) in advance
* Each person state in advance what they find most attractive in their least favourite outcome
* Each person state in advance what they find least attractive in their most favourite outcome
Does that seem reasonable? For instance, I'd disclose;
95% Yes, the comfort of the well-known institutions of the United Kingdom, the hopelessness of Scottish Labour and the Scottish media.
In addition, I do like the idea of talking mostly about the future and doing it as you would with your own family.
Saying "no evidence" does not, in itself, constitute evidence to the contrary.
@insto "@calmac "There just isn't the evidence for it."
There is. I spelled out the evidence earlier. I think gembo's point above, with which you couldn't agree more, is also mistaken. What you need to do now, rather than just reasserting what you previously said, is explain why I'm wrong about Panelbase and TNS. Please feel free to do that with alternative evidence - numbers and stuff. The data is all in the public domain."
You haven't provided evidence for why you think Panelbase and TNS are outliers. You really haven't. It's just an assertion.
I don't have to give any numbers - my whole point is that you have insuffiecent evidence to claim that it is "clear" that they are both outliers. So, with numbers, can you show in what way the methodology of each is inflating the support of one side and suppressing the vote of the other?
Without that, there's no way you can say either are an outlier.
My point is that it's not even possible to make such a claim until after the vote itself, because there is no way of having a benchmark for the different methodologies. My evidence for that is the history of political polling.
"The one further piece of evidence I can give you is the detail of Yes Scotland's reanalysis of the polls before they decided to push the point at which they think they will overtake Yes away from June to September."
That wsort of analysis of the polls is complete drivel, and I think you give it more credence than it deserves. You can look back at political polling and see that, over a period as long as this one, it hardly ever moves in a straight line, or can be projected forward from this far out on some sort of linear regression model. More common in UK polling is that the governing party is behind and narrows the gap, often to the point of retaking the lead, anywhere in the last year. The movements are lumpy and inconsistent, and this general trend often doesn't happen at all.
This sort of linear modelling is great with some data sets, but is frequently terrible when dealing with human behaviour. How can you ever factor in a Sheffield rally, Jennifer's ear, the sopabox, I agree with Nick, Who's Ian Gray?, unpardonable folly, bigotted old woman... I don't think the No side could blow this with one almighty gaff, but the Yes side could, and no model can allow for that.
"More generally, your assertion that "there is no way you can get a genuinely representative sample. There will always be biases" is also wrong."
Ah. I'm going to have to ask where you work. Because surely you appreciate that there is no perfect sampling method in opinion polling?
Look, at least some of the pollsters are going to get this referendum very wrong, unless they change their methodology. That's axiomatic when they are reporting such different results. Each one has the same confidence you do, but some are going to be very far out. If the result is close, some are going to preduict the wrong outcome. All pollsters should be preparing for that and not making claims they won't be able to defend later.
"If surveys were always biased they would be useless."
Absolutely not. They'd be good approximations. Which is exactly what they are. And you can improve the methodology by comparing polls to final results.
And just to finish, if things are going to be kept civil then the snide digs should stop, and people should apologise when they make them.
"@insto Saying "no evidence" does not, in itself, constitute evidence to the contrary."
Eh, I wasn't arguing to the contrary. I was saying that I didn't know how you could claim that TNS and Panelbase were outliers. It's you that hasn't presented evidence for your assertion - I haven't made any assertion at all.
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