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White Paper (THE #indyref thread)

(2915 posts)
  • Started 10 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from chdot
  • This topic is closed

  1. chdot
    Admin

    "So, sorry, this isn't a spectacular breakthrough."

    As detailed here -

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/07/poll-of-polls-11-july-updated

    The interesting things are that the Herald has a big headline about this and that (it says) Labour voters are moving to Yes.

    This has been predicted/expected.

    There is a real possibility that many more will change from (saying) No or being undecided.

    Alex Salmond has being saying recently 'it's not about me or the SNP, it's about Scotland'. Which people will believe or not...

    Clearly there are 'traditional' Labour voters not entirely happy with the Miliband/Westminster version of Labour.

    If more people (UK wide) tell pollsters they like the look of the new Cameron cabinet for next year's election, it will have an effect on the Referendum vote.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  2. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    So another very intersting canvass last night. Pushing into the rich neighbourhoods and being received far better than I had anticipated, but perhaps a manager in a bank and a law lecturer sound and look enough like them to allay their baser fears?

    The thing that got me was a young lady who had just finished her expensive education at one of Edinburgh's more expensive private schools. She was very confident, but utterly ill-informed about matters of fact. She argued against a Yes case that no one has, to my knowledge, ever made. She appealed to authority rather than reason.

    In retrospect I have to contrast her stance with that of last week's gas fitter. He gave me a real run for my money with powerfull reasoning and detailed facts, but it's her that will likely end up in a position of power due to her accent and connections.

    One of the things I hate about the present system is its overpromotion of polished, plausible incompetents due to their connections, self confidence and money. We lose out on so many intelligent and energetic people who are born in the wrong houses to ever get near power.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  3. crowriver
    Member

    "a young lady who had just finished her expensive education at one of Edinburgh's more expensive private schools. She was very confident, but utterly ill-informed about matters of fact."

    I've encountered people like this on numerous occasions so I find this utterly unsurprising. Thankfully not all privately educated people are like this, but a significant minority seem to be. One of the side effects of privilege is not terribly bright people who ooze confidence and a sense of entitlement. Not what you know but who you know, and all that.

    She was probably a Tory so you were onto a loser there anyway.

    "One of the things I hate about the present system is its overpromotion of polished, plausible incompetents due to their connections, self confidence and money. We lose out on so many intelligent and energetic people who are born in the wrong houses to ever get near power."

    I'm not convinced independence would change that. Elites look after their own, whether in a smaller independent nation or not. One key difference in an indy Scotland would be the high road to state power in London would be firmly closed to ambitious types. Instead, they'll end up as EU functionaries or something to do with the UN. Arguably a better state of affairs if they are representing the country of their birth rather than lording it over us as a representative of the British state.

    One thing that would erode privilege and all its ugly manifestations in Scotland is land reform. This is not dependent on independence, the Scottish Parly has the powers to do most of what is required if it so wishes. Indeed, a recent SP report on land reform has fair put the wind up powerful landowning interests. You can safely bet that, in the event of a No vote, those interests will be lobbying Westminster very hard to remove certain powers from Holyrood in order to protect the status quo regarding land ownership.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  4. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    I'm not convinced independence would change that.

    And neither do I too. What I do believe is that class-based deference is baked into the UK. Talking to the employees of a Scottish 'estate' is like a trip back to 14th century Aylesbury. I don't think they actually claim droit de cuissage, but it's not far off.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  5. crowriver
    Member

    Hm. It appears droit de cuissage may in fact be a myth:

    http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/L/bo3629910.html

    Still, it made for a juicy bit of propoganda in Braveheart and in revolutionary France.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  6. Instography
    Member

    The big move of Labour voters to Yes was right at the start. It's always been there and there's been a consistent sub-group who say they support Labour for the Scottish Parliament elections but also support Yes.

    What distinguishes them is that when they are asked about national identity, the Labour Yes voters are more likely to categorise themselves as equally British and Scottish or more British than Scottish. This group is matched on the No side by a similar group of Labour supporters who describe themselves in the same way. You can see how they are conflicted - the appeal of the old Labour values being pushed by the more radical end of the Yes campaign restrained by the albatross of party loyalty and British nationality.

    What's interesting about them is that on both sides their vote appears softer. On both sides they are more likely to say 'Yes, but may change my mind' or 'No, but may change my mind'. This is where there is switching to be done.

    The Herald's story is based around the suggestion that there has been a big change. Curtice obscures it in the dispute between YouGov and Survation but the basic numbers are

    Labour Yes was 21% of Labour supporters and is now 28%
    SNP No was 21% now 15%

    For something underpinned by a core sentiment, something that is fundamental to people's sense of themselves - national identity - to remain steady and then suddenly shift we should be first sceptical (because it's big) and then ask what mechanism has produced this (because it should reflect some real world event). What happened between the two surveys to prompt this dramatic change?

    Curtice implies that it's all internal to the data.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  7. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @crowriver

    The practice of female farm workers bearing illegitimate children in whose welfare the farm owner subsequently took some interest is certainly not a myth. My family tree runs into many such mysterious occurences in the north east of Scotland. Quite how the people thought of the practice at the time I don't know, but I have little doubt that full, informed consent was not always a given.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  8. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Where I take issue with my friends, who are still my friends I hasten to add, is in their imagining that a No vote somehow cancels the uncertainty and division. That life can ever again be like this never happened. I think that to imagine some kind of “return to normality” is not only deluded, I think it is a positively dangerous complacency about the way things have already, irrevocably changed. And more, how things will change after a No vote, as well as after a Yes.

    "

    bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/07/17/dinner-with-no-voters-or-what-i-wanted-to-say-before-the-pudding-hit-the-fan

    (Some of the rest is less temperate!)

    Posted 9 years ago #
  9. Instography
    Member

    I like it - pre-guilt for No voters. Voting No as a form of original sin where they become responsible for all the bad things in the world for the rest of time. We can stop blaming the bankers, the Tories or the system and just blame it all on No voters. Children can look back on their No voting parents and know that they're to blame, not politicians.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  10. crowriver
    Member

    @Insto, the article is at pains to point out that this is exactly what Yes voters are being saddled with: all the future uncertainty, the hypothetical calimity, the disasters, are being rhetorically heaped on our shoulders by the No campaign. A No vote is portrayed as "keeping things as they are" when as the article makes plain, it's a vote for change of a different kind. An unconditional surrender to Westminster, in effect. Folk need to realise what is at stake, there's no going back to "blaming the bankers, the Tories or the system". Not when you've had the chance to get rid of the Tories and then bottled it.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  11. Instography
    Member

    Yes, there's definitely a Project Fear element to it. There's been a noticeable shift towards to more references to the dire consequences of voting No and more references to voting No as cowardice.

    I guess it's an understandable reaction to time running out and the polls not moving fast enough. It has an air of panic about it. But it's odd - trying to scare people didn't work for the No campaign so it's hard to see why it would work for Yes.

    But if Peter Arnott really believes that responsibility for everything will shift to No voters then it's hard to see how the friendships he's managed to maintain with No voters could survive a No vote, which I think would be the saddest outcome possible.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  12. Morningsider
    Member

    crowriver - thing is, "the Tories" aren't some amorphous "other". 412,855 Scots voted for the Conservatives at the last UK general election. Who is to say that in 10, 15, 20 years time that a right wing party wouldn't be successful in an independent Scotland. A yes vote is no guarantee against austerity or the Tories.

    I find this a bizarre article, it seems to assume that all "no" voters are of a single mind, and that they haven't considered the possible consequences of a no vote.

    I also find it hard to fathom why someone so keen on self determination would choose to harangue his no voting "friends" forever if there is a no vote, given that he considers "For the first time in history, for 15 hours in September, Scotland will be a democratic country, with its people responsible for themselves." Is a "no" result not as democratic as "yes"?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  13. gembo
    Member

    Twice as many No pagodas to yes gazebos in wester hailes today

    Still getting large number of people who feel browbeaten by the yes side. Think it will be 60 no 40 yes in Edinburgh. Not sure about Glasgow.

    Mostly good natured banter between yes and no. At one point I thought big Stuart was getting into an unnecessarily heated exchange with some no voters but turned out they were in SDL so good to out these racists.

    Oxgangs next week

    Posted 9 years ago #
  14. chdot
    Admin

    "Who is to say that in 10, 15, 20 years time that a right wing party wouldn't be successful in an independent Scotland."

    I've said several times in this thread that I think Tories would do better in an independent Scotland.

    Though you may well be right(er) about "a right wing party".

    In the same way Labour ought to do better (than last Holyrood election at least) under Indy.

    Though of course it all depends (assuming a Yes) on how much the SNP holds together and whether any of the various left(ish) and non-aligned groupings can evolve into 'a party' or 'rainbow' parties.

    If there is a No, there will be some discontent within the SNP. Some people will leave disillusion, defeated or just exhausted.

    Even as part of the 'winning side' Labour (in Scotland at least) is unlikely to be too united behind its Westminster leader -

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/19/spending-not-solve-britains-problems-ed-miliband-labour

    Posted 9 years ago #
  15. chdot
    Admin

    This is the inevitable response to what EM said earlier (above)

    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/jul/more-cuts-only-thing-offer-westminster

    Posted 9 years ago #
  16. chdot
    Admin

    Previously

    "

    Ed Miliband will today urge Labour to rally behind his “radical and credible” election agenda as he tries to unite factions with differing views about how to deliver social justice in an age of austerity.

    In a speech to Labour’s national policy forum in Milton Keynes, Mr Miliband will admit that the party could not throw money at public services to improve them or cut poverty by raising benefits and tax credits, as it did in power from 1997 to 2010.

    He will argue that his party now has a policy platform which “moves on” from New Labour without returning to Old Labour. There has been tension in the Shadow Cabinet over whether to make a bold offer at next year’s election or a more cautious one aimed at winning economic credibility.

    Today Mr Miliband will try to square the circle by arguing the flawed economy revealed by the 2008 crash requires radical solutions, but saying they must be achieved without a public spending spree.

    "

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ed-miliband-labour-make-big-changes-without-big-spending-9615963.html

    Posted 9 years ago #
  17. chdot
    Admin

    "

    We accept absolutely the right of the people of Scotland to decide whether or not they should vote for independence. But we want you to stay, as a vital part of the United Kingdom.

    We offer no comment on the economic or political case for independence. That is for the voters of Scotland to decide on.

    Rather, our case is an emotional one. The peoples of the various parts of the UK have moved, mixed and inter-married since before recorded history. The Crowns have been united for more than 400 years. And we have all been together in the Union for over 300 years. We are family.

    So, for Scotland now to leave the UK would be as if a brother or sister told us that they didn’t love us anymore. It would hurt.

    "

    http://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/to-the-people-of-scotland-to-vote-to-stay-in-the-united-kingdom-family

    Posted 9 years ago #
  18. crowriver
    Member

    it seems to assume that all "no" voters are of a single mind, and that they haven't considered the possible consequences of a no vote.

    Not all, but some, certainly.

    The author is quite specifically referring to folk he knows, and he says "I think that to imagine some kind of “return to normality” is not only deluded, I think it is a positively dangerous complacency about the way things have already, irrevocably changed." So he is attacking the idea of a return to normality, not saying (nor implying) that all No voters are deluded. Just one position is, in his opinion (of course). I understand why folk might take umbrage at the tone of the article, but the points of substance are not so easily dismissed.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  19. gembo
    Member

    Just for clarification, what is the point or points of substance. Both sides can claim the other side is deluded. That does not help anyone.

    There is a big inhale of breath at the moment with everyone waiting until after 18 sept before doing anything.

    The referendum is part of a complicated change in Scottish politics. In part linked to the introduction of constituency and list MSPs. Partly to do with a more radical or alternative space being occupied by a traditionally more right wing party (or a party that was left right and centre I guess).

    Many people (up to a million) will not vote. Many people I have spoken to on doorsteps (well short of a million) cannot remember the last Westminster election or the last Holyrood election.

    Much of this debate is carried out by pollsters, commentators in media or Internet and politicians. I am unclear what will change after 180914 we will still be living in a capitalist society with the same Anglo German titular monarch. The clocks will be at the same time and the seasons will go round and round, the painted ponies will go up and down captured in the carousel of life.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  20. chdot
    Admin

    "

    "I don't think Quebec would be sustainable by itself," she said. "And I don't think our financial institutions would do well outside Canada."

    Her city has even given its name to the shedding of HQs and jobs because of independence uncertainty: the Montreal Effect.

    Quebec's principal city had 96 of the HQs of Canada's top 500 companies in 1990, according to the Fraser Institute. By 2011, it had 75. That is a drop in nearly two decades from nearly three HQs for every 100,000 of Montreal citizens to just two. Even the Bank of Montreal now has its headquarters in Toronto.

    "

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/business/company-news/the-montreal-effect.24795098

    Posted 9 years ago #
  21. chdot
    Admin

    "
    “And I want to give a personal guarantee that if I am Secretary of State for Scotland next year, getting this legislation through Parliament will be my top priority from day one of the next Labour government.”

    "

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/independence-labour-guarantee-more-devolution-1-3482505

    Posted 9 years ago #
  22. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    “And I want to give a personal guarantee that if I am Secretary of State for Scotland next year, getting this legislation through Parliament will be my top priority from day one of the next Labour government.”

    That's a whole load of 'if's, circumlocutions and unstated lurking obstacles in talking about a bit of legislation that hasn't even been drafted yet.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  23. Instography
    Member

    Not out of place in this debate then.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  24. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @instography

    Naturally, I know what you mean, but in the context of the headline;

    'Independence: Labour ‘guarantee’ more devolution'

    I would argue that more certainty around this proposal is required. My point is one about the journalism, not the essentially unknowable quality of the future.

    As far as I know, no one is guaranteeing anything post-Yes other than Scotland being an 'independent country', although of course we can even argue over the meaning of 'independence' and 'country'.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  25. gembo
    Member

    @insto definitely not out of place in this debate of known unknowns and unknown unknowns

    @IWRATS more certainty, that is defintely what is required

    what we will get in the next two months though is just more blether

    Oh for some signal in all this noise

    Posted 9 years ago #
  26. Instography
    Member

    No one's guaranteeing anything? Tut tut IWRATS. You've not read your copy of Scotland's Future, have you? It's full of guarantees. And some of them even more vague than Margaret's. How about, "A guarantee that tax and social security rates will be set in line with the wishes of the people of Scotland." The 'guarantee' word appears 61 times.

    And then there are the lesser guarantees - 262 things that will be 'ensured' like Eastenders and Dr Who. Nearly 1,000 references to things that "will be" like the constitutional monarchy and the 228 uses of "will continue" to guarantee things like using the pound and a host of organisational, administrative, procedural and constitutional arrangements that are not in the gift of the current Scottish Government or the SNP (I still haven't decided whose document that is).

    And those most certain of terms - Yes and No - which appear, respectively, 172 and 226 times. My personal favourite is, of course, Question 622 because it gives me a little chill every time I see it and think of the commitment to democracy and accountability that it implies: Will the Scottish Parliament have a second chamber? No.

    OK. I've only searched for the phrases and I'm not questioning that most of these guarantees would be good things. But even so, that adds to a high level of certainty (or little scope for debate, depending on how you look at it).

    Posted 9 years ago #
  27. chdot
    Admin

    This is quite odd, perhaps bizarre.

    I suspect all sorts of people will find it offensive.

    "

    The argument for independence often invokes the idea of a uniform Scottish identity. Using new analysis, Richard Webber and Trevor Phillips expose this myth, revealing the eight Scottish subcultures and their attitudes to independence.

    "

    http://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-3/516

    Posted 9 years ago #
  28. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @instography

    I've read a big chunk of the white paper, but not the whole thing. It does, of course, contain the word 'guarantee', as you point out.

    I discounted this document as a hybrid manifesto/constitution. I understand why they issued it, but I don't see it as the basis of an independent Scotland's government or constitution. We will vote on the well known question, not on the white paper. If we vote Yes then everything is up for grabs, including the monarchy and the second chamber. I will argue very strongly for a republic with a bicameral parliament, one chamber elected, the other drawn at random from a pool of willing citizens. The SNP might attempt to argue that we were voting in the white paper as our constitution, but I don't think many people would stand for that. Post-Yes, Scots would be absolutely fizzing with energy.

    The flip side is that if we vote No then nothing is up for grabs. We will receive our instructions from London and they may be good, bad or indifferent. It feels to me like it's more incumbent on the pro-London conservative parties to make clear what laws they might attempt to put through Westminster. Do you think that's unreasonable? Maybe it is.

    I'd also like to see the conservative parties plans for a post-Yes Scotland.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  29. Instography
    Member

    I knew there was a reason for including all those tedious methodological details when you write up research. It stops that kind of nonsense.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  30. Instography
    Member

    I don't see the situation as quite so up for grabs. If the SNP wins the referendum (and I choose my words carefully - I think they will believe that they have won) they will still enjoy a majority in Parliament and can claim the moral authority of the party that has kept the dream alive for 80 years. They will, as the Government, choose the team that will negotiate for Scotland. They'll no doubt co-opt other people, including opposition parties, but I'm sure they'll keep control of it. They will also, as the Government, determine the composition (and probably the remit) of the constitutional convention that will deliberate over the final draft of the constitution. Likewise, they'll want other people involved, if only to foster the illusion of inclusiveness and consensus. (I confess I haven't read the consultation document on that so I'm not clear what mechanism is proposed to formalise the constitution.) But I'm sure they'll also want to keep a tight grip on that.

    Anyway, post-referendum tactics aside, I don't think the White Paper can be so easily dismissed. There is a justifiable argument that that is the basis upon which the people have been voted for independence. Yes, it's a manifesto and I suspect the SNP would feel that it's promises need to be honoured, insofar as it's within the gift of the Scottish Government to honour it. To throw it away once the referendum is won would be a fraud on the people who voted for it as the blueprint for independence rather than a Trojan horse for some other outcome.

    Posted 9 years ago #

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