CityCyclingEdinburgh was launched on the 27th of October 2009 as "an experiment".
IT’S TRUE!
CCE is 15years old!
Well done to ALL posters
It soon became useful and entertaining. There are regular posters, people who add useful info occasionally and plenty more who drop by to watch. That's fine. If you want to add news/comments it's easy to register and become a member.
RULES No personal insults. No swearing.
closedAw c'mon, no you c'mon (Lambchop double album)
I was only messin.
But the commonwealth games is the family friendly, friendly games (except that weightlifter, he was furious last night getting cheated out of his gold, taking his big belt off and chucking it about the place).
England should be able to best Australia without our help but turns out as with politics, in sport they need us to help them (oops I am back messin again)
Washington Post: Scottish independence vote is too close to call http://wapo.st/ULr5rK
Any stattos out there want to rebut this academic's paper? (Link in the article above).
For a start it's out of date, as it doesn't include the Panelbase poll from a week before which had a fall of 2 in the "yes" %,and a doubling of the "no" lead compared with their previous month's poll. Also the article contradicts itself saying that "yes" has never been in the lead, with the graph showing that "yes" were in front once last August.
The paper doesn't explain what sort of trend it is assuming and whether any cyclical pattern (eg what has gone up could come down) is possible.
@crowriver
Who knows? Much strangeness is afoot in the land. I've never understood why any Scot would be more interested in predicting than in influencing the outcome, but like I say, newfangleness is abroad in the realm.
The basic problem with it is that it assumes that the trend in the polls is actually a trend in opinion but most of the variation in the trend reflects differences in the measurements taken by different pollsters. I've seen some statisticians objecting to the use of Bayesian models for this, saying that it's inappropriate for reasons that I won't pretend to understand.
Looking more closely at the chart, it's difficult to see how you'd project that wiggly trend line forward to get close to 50%. I did see a crude projection produced by Yes Scotland that used the most selective set of results and the most optimistic forecast to just squeak over 50%. My own projections, were, early in the year, showing Yes getting to 48% also using fairly crude methods but since the spring, when the gain of about 4% between August 2013 and January 2014 had stalled for a few months, the trend had reflect that by bring the projection down. Now, Yes needs to be gaining about 4% per month, essentially converting all of the undecideds to Yes to win. Something dramatic needs to happen to change what appears to be inevitable (although I'd say it's not so inevitable that I haven't hedged my bets to at least get my stake back).
@slowcoach
Everyone pretty much accepts that the one poll putting Yes ahead was biased by some preceding questions that were leading.
@IWRATS
If you started out by thinking that the notion of independence was virtually meaningless, particularly in the form that it's being offered and you now think that both campaigns are now desperately lying through their teeth then predicting the outcome is easily more interesting than trying to influence it. I can see that if you've built it up to be Scotland's version of St Petersburg in 1905 the outcome of the referendum matters. Personally, I'm a bit meh about it. Maybe I'm not Scottish enough.
Two of the Scottish gold medal winning gymnasts didn't sound very Scottish. Some googling and one of them is from Corby. his dad did not sound very Scottish either but then I expect his grandfather was a Scottish steelworker who moved to northants looking for work. The other who had a mild scouse accent is from Crosby near southport. Both are called Daniel. Why my better half felt they had Scottish accents is beyond me but many odd things happen these days.
King Alex has kept a reasonably low profile for the games which has been nice. Presume it has filtered through that he isn't the big plus that he used to be?
Personally, from my biased perspective I have not enjoyed the SNP tactics of the last two years of flooding the land with yes posters! getting yes placards into every available bit of the Internet! jumping on any attempt to criticise.
In these last 50 days even the SNP campaigners seem bored, they have peaked too early? Nothing left for the sprint?
People have been browbeaten with the idea that voting No is somehow wrong and something to keep quiet about? Outpourings of relief or maybe apathy await?
Who has been running the country in the last two years?
what a circus. And I do not like circuses.
It hasn't been the SNP flooding the country with Yes posters. It’s been the Yes campaign, and ordinary non-party folk like me doing it. Most folk I know with Yes banners are definitely not SNP voters.
@bdellar
Sorry just using shorthand and avoiding returning to the £4.5 million funding from the SNP lottery winners.
Wonder if the poster campaign is about to heat up? Billboards etc? Lottery winners cash versus Harry potter's cash?
"In these last 50 days even the SNP campaigners seem bored"
I think there is some truth in that.
"Wonder if the poster campaign is about to heat up? Billboards etc?"
Almost certainly true - and it's likely to be a (n almost) complete waste of money in terms of persuading anyone.
On Radio 4 this morning (Broadcasting House - coming from a tent in Glasgow) I heard someone say what I have said on here before (they were discussing 'switching') 'some people will switch/decide when they see the ballot paper'.
Perhaps the most surprising thing of the hour was after the presenter asking if people in the audience had registered to vote, most said aye, then he asked how many had changed their opinion on how they were going to vote - silence!
I think there is a general belief that the 'undecideds' hold the key, and some evidence that they are more likely to vote Yes - but there don't seem to be enough for Yes to be over 50%.
"Something dramatic needs to happen to change what appears to be inevitable (although I'd say it's not so inevitable that I haven't hedged my bets to at least get my stake back)."
Is that by a pollster or a politician?!!
From the Eeyore News article: "Jim McFarlane, founder of Livingston-based Endura, said some of the work done at the company’s West Lothian site would most likely relocate to the Czech Republic if there was a Yes vote next month."
Rather disappointing to see the head of a respected business apparently so spectacularly ill-informed about politics. Surely the threat to EU membership is in fact Cameron's promise of a referendum in 2017 rather than Scottish independence?
@CHdot heard that programme too. They seemed to have found two switchers though as with all the spin I remain unconvinced either were actual switchers. Then total silence when paddy asked the audience if any of them are switching.
Salmond darling debate Tuesday. Salmond will win that easy peasy in the studio but I think it will work against him as he has been over exposed in my opinion.
Was surprised to read that there is a record number of registered voters. But of the undecideds I am not sure how many will vote. Not sure any real evidence of how voting undecideds will vote. One woman on the show thought they would decide on the day? I don't buy that either.
Anyway I am boring myself with this. So apologies for boring any reader, if there is one.
@crowriver - Endura guy seemd to be arguing that the thing for him was uncertainty. He will switch production to Czech Republic as it is in EU if there is a yes vote. Should there be a no vote he will keep production in Livingston and Czech Republic. Should Cameron fail to stop boris I imagine he will switch all production to Czech Republic. Mildly interesting that production is not in china.
"Was surprised to read that there is a record number of registered voters."
Really?? There has been a deliberate 'registration drive' (particularly in 'traditional' low turn-out areas) - reminiscent of the Southern States. (Plus 16 & 17 yos can vote this time.)
Oh, and tales of 'register to vote and expect a Poll Tax Bill...
"But of the undecideds I am not sure how many will vote."
Neither is anyone else.
"Not sure any real evidence of how voting undecideds will vote."
Well there have been polls which asked questions like 'if you have decided recently, what have you decided?' Inevitably small samples but I think it was Yes/No 2/1.
"One woman on the show thought they would decide on the day? I don't buy that either."
Well it will definitely happen. No-one can predict how many, but faced with the actual question it will slightly favour Yes.
All too close to call really.
"
“A recent poll commissioned by the Hunter Foundation and published in early July showed 56% of undecided voters simply don’t feel they have enough impartial information to make a decision. And 45% of all voters claim they don’t trust either the UK or the Scottish Government’s predictions
"
Can't say for anywhere else but I am calling Edinburgh 60 % no from what people say to me on the street but I am telling them I am voting No so maybe knock a few per cent off. Other areas of strong nationalist voting patterns but lower populations are Yes. Glasgow I have no info.
Re previous
"
UNDECIDED voters are more likely to come down on the side of independence in the referendum – but not in enough numbers to secure victory for the Yes camp.
"
But later it says, "But those who were undecided in March and switched in June were more likely to say Yes (25 per cent) than No (16 per cent)."
What did the other 59% of the undecideds who switched opt for? I wasn't aware there were other options than Yes or No. Or am I missing something?
Ah, as ever, it's best to go to the original rather than trust reports.
The March don't know were 56% don't know in June. 18% of them had switched to No and 25% switched to Yes. The table is much more interesting in the sense that it suggests that largely the campaigns are succeeding in swapping supporters and picking up people who decide that they will vote in equal numbers. Compared with the overall picture of stability, picking up a few more don't know supporters isn't much of a story.
These debates are really going to have to be remarkable.
@Insto, exactly. Perhaps it would have been more honest if the article said the researchers have no idea how most of the 'undecided' voters will vote, if they vote at all...
"What did the other 59% of the undecideds who switched opt for?"
Good question!
Presumably the 59% refused to say.
Or??
See my edit above.
The pro-independence people need to believe in the narrative that the gap is closing and the undecideds are undecided yes. Just to keep going despite the largely consistent polls suggesting otherwise about the gap closing and the reasonable default that the undecideds are fifty fifty. many SNP and others have put their hearts and souls into this for at least two years.
Alternatively, regardless of tactics or spin the majority of the country. Will vote No. This narrative would be consistent with the polls? Consistent too with what lots of people say that they want devolution but not independence. (Including some people who previously voted SNP it would seem).
Don't forget the 'late surge' - the large late switch to the SNP in 2011.
"The pro-independence people need to believe in the narrative that the gap is closing and the undecideds are undecided yes."
Perhaps.
"
latest canvas in Rosyth tonight 72% yes 14% no 14% undecided, when undecided taken out result is 70%yes 30%no
"
https://m.facebook.com/YesInverkeithing/posts/560839250705469
Isn't that where they 'won't be working for the Royal Navy anymore when Scotland is a foreign country'?
Yes the late surge also part of the narrative and the drive to keep going.
Presume they were not canvassing tonight? But have posted some findings? Does seem counter intuitive if they were canvassing amongst people working at rosyth but maybe the workers don't all live in rosyth? Will follow the linkee.
"also part of the narrative and the drive to keep going"
...
We've been doing this solidly and not really denting the polls, but there might be the late surge like in 2011?
That rosyth info doesn't really have any details, does say canvassing tonight but maybe just posted tonight? Sunday night just seems funny time to be canvassing? Noticed photo on the chap's facebook page saying he was proud to be a cybernat.
Also the arithmetic stripping out the undecideds seems wrong?
Speaking for myself, I'm campaigning for a Yes because I think it's right, and will be good for Scotland and the rUK. I'm not doing it because I think I'll win, or because I'm on the winning side. I'm doing it in the *hope* that I'll win.
Just like I've campaigned for decent bike infrastructure. Or getting rid of nuclear weapons. Or an end to the Occupation in Palestine. Not good causes if you want to be on the winning side.
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