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White Paper (THE #indyref thread)

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  • Started 10 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from chdot
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  1. chdot
    Admin

    "I knew that men sparring on television was never going to be helpful with a political question of this degree of complexity and importance, but that really was unenlightening."

    Yes, and I didn't anticipate how bad it would be.

    I think it's clear that Politicians are interested in Politics and people are (increasingly) interested in politics.

    I don't know how 'representative' the audience was, but both Politicians got the "answer the question" heckle.

    One problem is that 'we' (on this thread) know more about the 'issues' than 'average/normal' people (probably!) Presumably STV, Darling and Salmond were aware that they would be talking to the less-involved/undecided more than in their normal engagements - ie there would be a much bigger audience than for 'normal' political programmes.

    Certainly the volume of comments on Twitter was massive - and from a much wider range of people than the usual #indyref streams.

    Genuine 'want to make my mind up' people probably weren't helped and 'don't know if I'll vote' people might well have decided not to.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  2. chdot
    Admin

    "

    How did you intend to vote before the TV debate?

    Yes: 47.2%

    No: 34.6%

    Undecided: 17.8%

    How are you intending to vote now?

    Yes: 54.1%

    No: 40.2%

    Undecided: 5.1%

    Who do you think won?

    Alex Salmond: 37%

    Alistair Darling: 38.1%

    Tie: 24.3%

    "

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-en-readers-split-on-debate-1-3500421

    Which pretty much contradicts what I wrote above!!

    Posted 9 years ago #

  3. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Also, to reseat my loins after the black bunfight, I had to listen to this on a loop for a while;

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wP8A9rtg0iI

    Posted 9 years ago #

  4. crowriver
    Member

    This may be of interest.

    These are the results of that ICM snap poll trotted out by the media after last night's debate (which I didn't watch, I was on a train at the time). Despite the mainstream media spin that Darling 'won' the debate (ie. the No voters outnumbered Yes voters 53/47), amongst the 'don't knows' Salmond apparently 'won' by a huge margin.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-only-stat-that-matters/

    Posted 9 years ago #

  5. crowriver
    Member

    Oh, and for those worried about currency, here are plans A, B, C, D & E:

    Posted 9 years ago #

  6. crowriver
    Member


    Posted 9 years ago #

  7. chdot
    Admin

    "here are plans A, B, C, D & E"

    Indeed, which makes it surprising that Salmond/SNP/Yes can't find a form of words to close things down and avoid the stance/baiting by AD last night.

    Salmond saying that 'an unidentified Minister told the Guardian that there would be a currency union' is hardly helpful/reassuring. Asking AD if he was saying the G was wrong, was a waste of everyone's time.

    I know AS has got into 'trouble' for saying that Scotland would 'walk away from its share of the debt', but Westminster/No needs to explain how/why this wouldn't happen if they 'refused' to allow the currency union.

    If it's all about 'keeping the confidence of the Markets' there needs to be some serious conversations about why that is so important!

    One entertaining part of yesterday's knockabout was AD saying that an independent Scotland wouldn't have been able to bail out RBS and AS pointing out that the bit that failed was based in London and (apparently) employed more people than RBS does in Scotland(?)

    Posted 9 years ago #

  8. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @crowriver

    I hadn't read that poll. It is very interesting. I keep forgetting that all performances are aimed at undecideds. The undecideds that I canvass are often furious about the tone of some of the conservative parties' pronouncements, and last night won't have helped that one little bit.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  9. crowriver
    Member

    surprising that Salmond/SNP/Yes can't find a form of words to close things down and avoid the stance/baiting by AD last night.

    Presumably because it's a bad idea to walk into independence negotiations in October with a public admission hanging over your team that you are prepared to forego your preferred option of currency union for something else.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  10. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @chdot

    It alarms and depresses me that the transfer of public assets to private banks is now presented as a core function of any self-respecting state rather than a cause for outrage, ostracisation and criminal proceedings.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  11. chdot
    Admin

    "Presumably because it's a bad idea to walk into independence negotiations in October with a public admission hanging over your team that you are prepared to forego your preferred option of currency union for something else."

    That's 'logical' but it's not what the voters who might vote Yes are thinking about.

    Some want 'certainty' - which is impossible.

    Others want a bit of honesty like 'we are confident that we will be able to negotiate a cu - which would be in everyone's interest - but if the next Westminster Government won't agree there are plenty of other options (which are widely available)'.

    There is a lot of playing down of the 'negotiations' - which is understandable - but might be counterproductive. The negotiations (after a Yes) won't just happen in a sealed bunker for 18 months. There will be plenty of public discussion about details that are or are not acceptable.

    Of course it is unfortunate that there is no mechanism for 'approving' (or not) the outcome of the negotiations, but that's where we are.

    What about 'unexpected consequences' that both sides agree weren't intended??

    Posted 9 years ago #

  12. Morningsider
    Member

    EDIT - this post has been edited to use unweighted, figures, rather than the weighted figures I originally used, as recommended by Instography.

    crowriver - ICM (which undertook the research) provides its own analysis at:

    http://www.icmresearch.com/media-centre/polls/alex-salmond-vs-alastair-darling-independence-referendum-debate

    The Wings Over Scotland analysis of the figures is incorrect. Pre debate there were 180 Yes, 206 No and 49 don't know. Post debate there were 189 Yes, 224 No and 22 don't know. So No gathered 18 new supporters and yes 9. Don't knows reduced from 49 to 22.

    (These figures use the weighted sample - as unweighted figures aren't available) Pre debate 45% of don't knows expected Alasdair Darling to win the debate and 55% Alex Salmond. Post debate this changed to 26% Alasdair Darling and 74% Alex Salmond - taking account of the fact the number of don't knows had reduced substantially. Obviously, neither man was convincing enough to turn these don't knows into a supporter of either side.

    It is worth pointing out that ICM put a healthy disclaimer on these results and how they represent voting intentions.

    I think we all know there are other options for an independent Scotland's currency, it's just that the SNP insist that formal currency union is the only game in town.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  13. Instography
    Member

    ICM have been very careful to attach appropriate caveats to their 'snap' poll. The number of undecided people at the outset in their sample was only 49 so basing anything on it is heroic. Basing any conclusions on the ones who remained undecided after the debate (22 people) is dishonest.

    If I were advising on strategy I'd be inclined to point out that basing your campaign on your post-referendum negotiating position might be a mistake, especially if, as seems to be the case, that articulating a plan B might be an important factor in getting to have a post-referendum negotiation. The first priority is to win and then worry about the negotiations. Worry about September first and then worry about October.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  14. chdot
    Admin

    "the transfer of public assets to private banks is now presented as a core function of any self-respecting state"

    And (thereby) transfer of risk back to the punters - see also PFI schools and hospitals and rail franchises...

    Posted 9 years ago #

  15. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Ideally, when you negotiate your BATNA is not known to the other side. In this case both side's currency BATNAs will be evident. The other BATNAs won't be, which is why the Scottish Government is being coy. If that coyness is interpreted as equivocation by a sufficient number of undecideds then the negotiations won't take place. It is knife-edge stuff.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  16. Instography
    Member

    Morningsider's figures are the weighted respondents. Mine are unweighted. If you're talking about the numbers of people, I think you should use unweighted numbers since these are real people.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  17. Morningsider
    Member

    Should say that the reason that Insto and myself quote different figures is that I have used the weighted sample and Insto the raw figures.

    EDIT - happy to bow to Insto's expertise on the use of unweighted figures.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  18. chdot
    Admin

    "The first priority is to win and then worry about the negotiations. Worry about September first and then worry about October."

    True, but that is part of the problem.

    Ignoring the people who want 'certainties' (obviously they can't be voting No!), it has to be recognised (by the Yes side - or perhaps the SNP part of it) that there are plenty of people who might see the White Paper as a useful policy document/statement of (optimistic) intent but who also know that it won't be implemented in its entirety.

    Imagining otherwise is self-delusional and insulting to the very people (borderline Yes voters) who need to have some confidence in the process.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  19. dg145
    Member

    I'm already comfortably in the 'Yes' camp, for reasons unconnected with either Salmond or the SNP, so his relatively poor performance (imo) last night doesn't impact on me (other than reinforcing my views on the man).

    However, I was interested in the reaction of my instinctively 'No', but not overly committed, wife. If anything her 'No' instincts were very much hardened by last night's debate.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  20. chdot
    Admin

    "If anything her 'No' instincts were very much hardened by last night's debate."

    That seems reasonable!

    As I have been saying (from a Yes point of view) the crucial thing would be to convince the don't knows. From a No point of view, it doesn't matter as they are (seem) comfortably ahead.

    Of course some of this depends on the notion that 'television makes a difference'. (Ask Clegg and Nixon.)

    Posted 9 years ago #

  21. crowriver
    Member

    Basing any conclusions on the ones who remained undecided after the debate (22 people) is dishonest.

    Perhaps. How then to interpret the ITN and BBC News 'straw polls' of, respectively, five 'undecided' young folk in a studio in Glesca, and variable numbers of drinking 'undecided' folk* of varying ages in a bar in The Kingdom; and/or three young folk standing in a Glesca street? At least the Beeb did occasionally preface their 'poll' as being 'completely unscientific' - well Kirsty Wark did, can't recall if the teams on Ten O'Clock News/Scottish news bulletin (news from where you are)/Scotland 2014 did so...

    * - variable from seven to four as the night, and the booze, flowed on...

    Posted 9 years ago #

  22. dg145
    Member

    "the crucial thing would be to convince the don't knows"

    I've been sneakily undermining her 'No' instincts for a wee while now, trying to manoeuvre her into a 'Don't Know' in preparation for a full scale assault. Last night's debate didn't help! ;-)

    I can see one of us making a unilateral declaration of personal independence after September 16 ...

    Posted 9 years ago #

  23. crowriver
    Member

    18th September, surely?

    Posted 9 years ago #

  24. dg145
    Member

    Ach, why wait ...

    Posted 9 years ago #

  25. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    "that lowland working class scots have more in common with Mancunians than they do with Highlanders"

    Interesting point, @gembo. I'm no fan of Scottish exceptionalism, and would happily see the southern borders of Yorkshire and Lancashire form the border of 'iScotland'. History being what it is, the Tweed-Solway border will have to do.

    I'd love a keek at those DVDs - if it isn't an imposition perhaps we can RV at the next PY? I'll hand over the Johnny Haliday/Jean Rochefort classic 'L'homme du train' by way of surety. It speaks of slippers and handguns, gardeners and hairdressers.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  26. Instography
    Member

    How then to interpret the ITN and BBC News 'straw pools'

    I would interpret them, at best, as representing the views of those five 'undecided' young folk in a studio in Glesca, and variable numbers of drinking 'undecided' folk of varying ages in a bar in The Kingdom. Interesting as far as they have anything interesting and insightful to say but nothing more. Anecdotes. As far as telling us anything more about the population as a whole they are meaningless.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  27. crowriver
    Member

    "that lowland working class scots have more in common with Mancunians than they do with Highlanders"

    Maybe so, but it's a poor justification for remaining part of a failing post-imperial state run almost completely in the interest of the population of London and the south east of England.

    We have the chance to get out this rut, we should take it. Scottish independence may even inspire the north of England to demand more autonomy from the domination of the south east...

    Posted 9 years ago #

  28. chdot
    Admin

    "I can see one of us making a unilateral declaration of personal independence"

    Is that full "separation" or devomax?

    Posted 9 years ago #

  29. crowriver
    Member

    @Insto, right so interpreting views of 22 folk is "dishonest" but interpreting views of 5 to 7 folk merely "interesting". Okay, if you say so...

    Posted 9 years ago #

  30. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Adam Ramsay (@AdamRamsay)
    06/08/2014 12:20
    No plan b? Here are my plans a-r for Scottish currency. #indyref #ScotDecides

    http://pic.twitter.com/zwu7I2AqLB

    "

    Posted 9 years ago #

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