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White Paper (THE #indyref thread)

(2915 posts)
  • Started 11 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from chdot
  • This topic is closed

  1. Instography
    Member

    @Instography will have mahogany and brass kittens if anyone suggests using poster spots as surrogate for voting outcome.

    I'd only have kittens if you suggested that I were using different and partisan standards to value attach higher value to No than Yes posters.

    This stuff about the Queen and the White Paper is interesting. FMQs is painful to watch but it's a cross I have to bear. On Thursday, as AS was being asked again and again about the currency he held the White Paper aloft, cited page 110 and seemed to me to be suggesting that a Yes vote would make the White Paper's preference for a currency union (and presumably other policies in it, including the Queen) an expression of the sovereign will of the Scottish people. He seems to think that the White Paper is the independence manifesto and that a Yes vote gives him a mandate to implement it.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  2. chdot
    Admin

    "He seems to think that the White Paper is the independence manifesto and that a Yes vote gives him a mandate to implement it."

    I'm afraid that might be true in his mind (and presumably others in the current Scottish Government) - and may well be counterproductive among potential Yes voters.

    Clearly there are plenty of people who can see through the 'Yes = SNP' propaganda - otherwise very few 'traditional Labour voters' would be contemplating Yes.

    If there is a Yes, non-SNP Yessers will need to assert and insert into the process (somehow).

    If there is a Yes, it might be good for AS to glory and gracefully step back.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  3. Morningsider
    Member

    I can see three reasons why yes supporters that want something different from what is in the white paper might be disappointed following a yes vote.

    1. The referendum is only happening because the SNP won two Scottish Parliament elections and maintained iron discipline over six parliamentary years (no mean feat). These wins were, to quite an extent, due to Alex Salmond's personality and vision. The SNP and Alex Salmond will feel that any win is their win and they will set the terms of any negotiations, based on the white paper.

    2. Even if there is a team Scotland approach to negotiations, who do you think the team manager will be? One A Salmond, I would suspect.

    3. The main non-SNP members of any Team Scotland will not be representatives of the Greens, SSP or other more radical elements. They will be Scottish establishment figures - principally business, legal and political grandees. The UK will be represented by top political and legal types and Scotland will need negotiators of similar stature.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  4. bdellar
    Member

    Of course some of us Yes voters might be disappointed. All politics involves struggle and campaigning. We will campaign for the change we want.

    I'm not voting Yes because it solves anything. I'm voting Yes because I reckon it increases our chances of solving things.

    Like with the monarchy. I don't see any chance of the UK becoming a republic. But I see a good chance of an Indy Scotland becoming a republic.

    In the meantime, I'm happy to campaign alongside folk who I disagree with over the monarchy.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  5. Instography
    Member

    I'm just not sure I understand how these chances are increased or what the mechanism would be to have them realised or when that might happen.

    Take the monarchy - probably the easiest thing around here to get agreement on. Scotland as a constitutional monarchy with the Queen as the head of state is written into the White Paper and the draft constitution. The constitutional convention will draw up a permanent constitution and I'd assume the monarchy would make it through that process and be established as the head of state.

    Constitutions are generally difficult to change. With a unicameral legislature, I'd hope that changes to the constitution would require a substantial majority in a referendum. Of course, that's a bit of a double-edged sword for me - I can't say I'm confident about the process by which that constitution would be finalised so it being difficult to change is a bit of a problem.

    I'd accept that having the monarchy's position written down is an improvement and that what is written can be unwritten but I don't think I've heard anything that has made the chances of getting rid of the monarchy seem "good".

    Posted 10 years ago #
  6. bdellar
    Member

    Good is maybe too strong a word. But I see a better chance of Scotland becoming a republic than the UK becoming one.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  7. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @morningsider

    You may well be correct in thinking that the SNP would dominate post-Yes talks. In the spirit of always asking any question of both No and Yes, we may ask who will be the team to determine our political set-up post-No. Here are twenty two of them;

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/08/karren-brady-stuart-rose-new-peers

    If any of them displease the Scottish people, the Scottish people are invited to hud their collective wheesht. The new peers are said, without apparent irony, to be working for a 'fairer society'. I think this is an outrageous state of affairs.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  8. gembo
    Member

    Mr salmond seems to be a vote loser now. Strange state of affairs. I mean amongst the undecideds.

    Canvassing today on an arterial route out of Edinburgh, with predictable strong No majority. Just had not been covered yet within the constituency. We found a small number of switchers. From yes to No. Reason for this switch - the debate. Of course if the next debate allows Mr salmond to show his true potential they might switch back?

    Apparently Jim sillars who has been quoted as saying the SNP has no currency plan, has had a death threat put through his door? Is that true?

    Also survation poll showing gap widening?

    Agree Scotland more likely to become a republic than Uk. But don't see either as likely. Difference between no chance and very remote possibility is not something that would persuade me.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  9. chdot
    Admin

  10. chdot
    Admin

    "Mr salmond seems to be a vote loser now. Strange state of affairs. I mean amongst the undecideds."

    Can't say I'm surprised. As I said above -

    "I'm afraid that might be true in his mind (and presumably others in the current Scottish Government) - and may well be counterproductive among potential Yes voters.

    Clearly there are plenty of people who can see through the 'Yes = SNP' propaganda - otherwise very few 'traditional Labour voters' would be contemplating Yes."

    So an unfortunate amount of extra work to be done by the Yes side if there is to be any hope of a Yes vote.

    If Scotland votes No, presumably there will be a substantial number of people expecting there to be VERY clear answers to the 'what more powers are you going to devolve' question. If these don't happen, then maybe clamour for another independence vote in five years?

    Unless the people of Scotland really are just happy to accept whatever Westminster decides.

    Leave the EU? OK.

    More Austerity? Why not.

    Renew Trident (near Glasgow)? Yes please.

    First past the post for Holyrood? Good idea.

    Abolish Holyrood? Even better.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  11. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Defend The Union (@KinrossEnglish)
    09/08/2014 22:46
    Only a crazy fool would choose Salmon's socialist dictatorship over sound democratic Conservative government & solid British values #indyref

    Defend The Union (@KinrossEnglish)
    31/07/2014 21:00
    Bicycles are for poor people & Chris Hoy.Do your bit for British industry and buy the all-new Sinclair C5. #LetsMakeBicyclesHistory #Indyref

    "

    Posted 10 years ago #
  12. gembo
    Member

    The two previous referenda were for devolution. Think this is how this one is shaping up. Though has to be done through voting no. Does look like the majority of Scotland is willing to go for Devo max and not further. Some labour voters might vote yes and some SNP voters might vote no. Another referendum in five years might be too soon. Quebec last had a separatist referendum in 1995. There is no appetite for it now and the PQ lost power possibly because the notion of another referendum was being raised (many other factors and they were a minority govt).

    Posted 10 years ago #
  13. chdot
    Admin

    "Does look like the majority of Scotland is willing to go for Devo max"

    And probably has been for several years.

    Just weren't allowed to vote for it...

    Will they get it soon??

    Posted 10 years ago #
  14. Instography
    Member

    My understanding is that including devo max was seen as a way for the SNP to create a referendum that they could only win. And it wouldn't have put the question of independence to bed. Devo Max would have won and the prospect of an independence referendum in five years would have sat in the background.

    Within the pro-independence community there were two ways of looking at Devo Max - second best or near enough to make no difference. This post at Peatworrier's blog pretty much covers it nicely, especially in the comments.

    And, the 'close enough' side seem to have turned out right. What the SNP want seems to be a form of devo max dressed up as independence. Their formulation of Devo Max was for Scotland to be responsible for everything, with Westminster only handling foreign policy, financial regulation, monetary policy and the currency. What they propose as independence is Scotland controlling everything but in a currency union (which means Westminster regulating financial services, dealing with monetary policy and the currency) and shared foreign office and diplomatic services. So, a Devo Max option would have been a second, softer more easily won bite at the same cherry.

    Another referendum? Depending on what the intention behind the Edinburgh Agreement was you can read the "decisive expression of the views of people in Scotland and a result that everyone will respect" as intending the referendum result to represent the "settled will", as Dewar called it or the "sovereign will" of the Scottish people, as we now seem to call it. Whatever the result, it's a done deal. No barriers to independence if it's Yes, but no Neverendum if it's No. If nothing else, another referendum would require another Section 30 order, which seems unlikely after this two-year marathon.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  15. firedfromthecircus
    Member

    There are some in the independence movement who want a more radical independence than the SNP want. While the SNP were/are the best vehicle to get the referendum, that does not mean that they are the de facto party of government should we win independence.
    While the SNP tout a fairer Scotland many would like an even fairer one than the SNP offer, including ditching the monarchy.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  16. chdot
    Admin

    "but no Neverendum if it's No. If nothing else, another referendum would require another Section 30 order, which seems unlikely after this two-year marathon"

    A lot will depend on the degree of devolution actually delivered by the next Westminster Parliament (whoever gets elected next year) - and how much that settles wills.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  17. chdot
    Admin

    "
    Scottish independence: Next Darling and Salmond debate 'before end of August'

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28722263

    I think round two should be Harvie v Davidson.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  18. gembo
    Member

    @insto, that all sounds reasonable. Pity the campaigners can get overheated. There are also very occasionally some very rabid punters out there where the full bannockburn invective gets trotted out with foaming mouth.

    This has led to a fair few people just keeping quiet either to avoid the boredom of their vociferous pal ramming Indy chat down their throats or as they feel a climate of fear or at least a pressure not to say anything. Quite often when you are out knocking on doors people are relieved and then they want to chat for ages.

    I am mindful of the late surge of 2011 but also note that was still within the safety net of devolution. I do not seem to be getting anywhere with asking the yes campaigners to consider their role in our country post referendum producing a No. Vote. Too early for that. Win or bust etc. But some people have put so much of themselves into this that I fear for their attitude after 18 sept. All their energy can only be for one option. Shame. I would hope we could all still contribute to building a better Scotland and UK post sept 18th

    Posted 10 years ago #
  19. chdot
    Admin

    "But some people have put so much of themselves into this that I fear for their attitude after 18 sept."

    Yes, but maybe not as many as you imagine.

    "

    If Scotland votes No next month, don't knock on Pat Kane's door.

    Unlike Scottlsh Green leader Patrick Harvle, who said he would sigh if Yes lost, Kane would take defeat very badly.

    "It will be a heart blow and a head blow, he says, sitting in Glasgow's CitizenM hotel.

    "I would need to reconstruct a large part of myself."

    "

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/referendum-news/if-there-is-a-no-vote-scotland-will-be-a-depressed-place-for-quite-a-while-.24967605

    Posted 10 years ago #
  20. Instography
    Member

    "While the SNP were/are the best vehicle to get the referendum, that does not mean that they are the de facto party of government should we win independence."

    If not then who is?

    I know there's a desire to separate independence from the SNP and Alex Salmond but given that the SNP have successfully marginalised everyone else in the Yes campaign and reasserted through the debates, in the minds of the voters, that independence is all about Alex Salmond and the SNP (a tactical error I think Yes campaigners are already regretting and the even the SNP will come to regret, if they're not privately kicking themselves), who is the independence party of government that's going to implement this radical agenda?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  21. gembo
    Member

    @insto, that is my reading.

    Pat Kane, what is he on? His love of big words and obscure references has left him isolated. If he was ever really in an actual grouping? I am not sure he even got on that well with his brother in their duo Hue and Cry? Of major significance to me is that he seems to be suggesting his ex-wife Joan macAlpine the SNP MSP who was pals with tommy Sheridan pushed sending their children to private school. I nearly felt some sympathy for pat there. Of course there are politicians in Labour Party who have also done this. Notably Dianne abbot. The comprehensive ideal is supported but when it comes to their own children then they don't see it that way. This is the point where they should resign from public life and make comedy news programmes at a time when everyone should be in bed with Michael portillo and Andrew Neill.

    I understand that a. Darling went to loretto but sent his children to state schools?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  22. chdot
    Admin

    "
    who is the independence party of government that's going to implement this radical agenda?

    "

    Good question, to which there is no "answer".

    The question and my 'answer' assumes a Yes.

    The composition of the 2016 Scottish Government depends on a lot.

    Mostly on how the 'negotiations' went and how much the SNP, its supporters and the wider electorate view the results.

    A landslide 'reward' or 'punishment'? OR the beginning of a split where current SNP people - perhaps even MSPs - join/help create other parties?

    The existing (Scottish) Tories will probably thrive. Labour? After their Better Together defeat (this answer is about Yes) they will implode and either re-invigorate or disappear. No point in speculating on green/left creations/alliances/factions now.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  23. chdot
    Admin

    "I understand that a. Darling went to loretto but sent his children to state schools?"

    Yes, I think his wife had something to say about that.

    Catchment school (secondary at least - can't remember which primary.)

    Posted 10 years ago #
  24. sallyhinch
    Member

    Genuine question - why would you vote SNP once independence has been achieved? Voters don't normally reward whole governments (although they do individual representatives, e.g. for constituency services). So what policies do the SNP have that make them distinctive from Labour, old or new? I've heard them referred to the Tartan Tories - but beyond Scottish Independence I'd be hard pressed to name a single policy of theirs that distinguishes them from the opposition. Which may say more about me than about them, of course.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  25. chdot
    Admin

    "why would you vote SNP once independence has been achieved"

    Various (possible) answers.

    Loyalty. People used to vote Labour that way and some will for the SNP.

    Credibility. Like their policies or not they (mostly John Swinney) have demonstrated dogged managerialism.

    Lack of alternative. Unless you are a 'natural' Conservative or Green, it's unclear what the alternatives will be.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  26. Instography
    Member

    The SNP has benefited from three things - being independent of the influence of UK national parties, which is seen as having a malign influence on the extent to which UK national parties can speak and act exclusively in the interests of Scotland. The are seen as providing competent, populist and in some respects progressive management of the devolved administration and they are not Labour, which many 'natural' supporters see as having betrayed them.

    After independence the SNP could appeal to people on the same basis. It's not like independence will come at a stroke overnight (or even within 18 months) so there will still be plenty of ways in which they can present themselves as competent managers and negotiators in the national interest while blaming Westminster for anything that isn't going so well. The timetable for the next Scottish Parliament elections, if those elections go ahead, probably doesn't leave long enough for the other parties to finish licking their wounds and blaming each other to organise an effective campaign against them. I think they'd walk into the next Government with almost no opposition.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  27. firedfromthecircus
    Member

    I think in an independent Scotland the proportional voting rules would see no single party with a clear majority. That would see either a coalition of some kind (probably left leaning) or a minority government that would be needing support from other parties to get policys through.
    There are many people (myself and Jim Sillars included) who are current members and voters of the SNP who would not remain so after independence. I suspect that there may also be people whose previous SNP vote would morph into a Tory vote post independence. The thing about the SNP is that there are a broad range of political colours within the party right now who are all chasing the same goal. Once that goal is achieved then the ties that bind us would be no more. I personally hope that a leftist rainbow coalition would form the first independent government of Scotland.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  28. Instography
    Member

    So do you think the voting rules for an independent Scottish Parliament would change to make a 2011-style overall majority impossible? I don't see how you could do that.

    Who would you and Jim Sillars vote for instead?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  29. firedfromthecircus
    Member

    The rules wouldn't have to change. We could retain the current constituency member and the additional list members to make up the parliament. Remember when that system was put in place and they said that no party would ever get a majority. That the SNP did in the last election was truly momentous, and also a commentary on the current state of the parties. The Labour party were/are a headless chicken and the Liberal vote had been bled away by Cleggs desperate attempt to get some power down south. In the event of independence it is unlikely that the SNP could repeat that feat, unless the electorate decided to reward them for winning the referendum. I don't see it.

    Jim Sillars has said he would vote for a socialist Labour party. Whether that is a new party or an invigorated Labour party returning to its roots is yet to be decided. Remember that once the Scottish Labour party no longer has to toe the London party line they could realise how far they have strayed from their principles and start to rectify that mistake.

    I expect I will be voting Green.

    One of the many positives that we can look forward to in the event of a yes vote is a thorough refresh of party politics. I would hope that the two party system at Westminster would be swept aside by a range of parties that actually have clear water between their policys, as they will not all be chasing the 'Middle England' vote.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  30. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Oh no, not that, my husband and I said in horrible unison, anything but that. But the deal is done and there is no escape. For the next month we will be living next door to a Scottish Nationalist.

    "

    Some people get paid to write stuff like that.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jennyhjul/100281894/what-to-do-when-scottish-nationalists-move-in-next-door

    Posted 10 years ago #

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