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White Paper (THE #indyref thread)

(2915 posts)
  • Started 10 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from chdot
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  1. gembo
    Member

    Just back from Scotmid - two panniers and two poly b ags on the handlebars plus another poly bag with all my pannier gear Quite a shopping expedition.

    Was approached by policeman who said thank you for pushing the no vote. He is not allowed to be political.

    Just in The interest of fairness I give you his view, he has done a lot of work recently with Scottish govt and he says they are not ready.

    Also thanked by local business that is not able to speak out today en route to clovie

    Later on delivering poster was told by banker of intimidation at board room level and relocation if Yes.

    Moira in Scotmid still undecided

    Pleasant chat with fellow tricross owner as I
    Was cutting a poly bag out of my jockey wheel in currie. Did not get political, stayed with carbon fork discussion.

    Random interactions of the day. - not trying to prove anything, just relaying what people have been saying to me.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  2. crowriver
    Member

    @gembo, "not trying to prove anything, just relaying what people have been saying to me."

    Hmmm. These 'anecdotes' aim to give a folksy view, 'grassroots', 'authentic' even. (Sorry I know you don't like quotation marks but there's some stuff about your anecdotes I'm not keen on too).

    Pity you have to spoil them with wee smears chucked in: insinuating the Yes supporter was being 'xenophobic' and describing her as 'ranting'; the brave No supporters who are 'not allowed to be political'; 'not able to speak out'; or suffering 'intimidation at board room level'.

    "Not trying to prove anything" indeed. At the very least, a selective embroidering of actual conversations to gain political traction with those still reading; At worst.....?

    Anyway. I've had a lot of conversations about the referendum with folk of all political persuasions: I don't recognise the picture you're painting of plucky No supporters afraid of upsetting the oppressive Yes campaigners, and browbeaten into silence until a fellow No supporter appears. Many No supporters are quite vocal about things. Some (a minority, granted) even assume their colleagues, friends and acquaintances will share their views, and get quite put out when it's politely pointed out they're mistaken in that assumption.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  3. stiltskin
    Member

    I imagine that in the event of a Yes vote, there will be lots of people going around waving Saltires and generally celebrating in public: maybe it's just me, but I don't think that it would be a good idea to attach a union flag to the back of my bike & cycle through town if the result turns out to be No.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  4. chdot
    Admin

    "don't think that it would be a good idea to attach a union flag to the back of my bike & cycle through town if the result turns out to be No"

    Depends which part of town.

    According to a trailer for a new Andrew Marr programme, 'the New Town is likely to vote Yes and the Old Town No'.

    Oh No, I got that the wrong way round.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  5. gembo
    Member

    @crowriver, I know you have a different take on the world from me. I am not saying I am right and you are wrong. I am saying you are biased and so am I.

    I think the media need to present a story of a two horse race when the. Opinion polls have consistently shown an unbridgeable gap. I have often seen people breathe sighs of relief when they have grasped that I am canvassing for a No. I have been told by people on the streets that they feel hassled by the yes campaign, I have encountered xenophobic people, much worse than the woman today who only said English when she meant to say Westminster but perhaps actually did mean English. I feel the passion is higher on the nationalist side and as such some ayes can get very riled very quickly.

    I am sure there are counter arguments to balance all of these opinions out. However, these are the things that I have observed. At times you seem to want to argue that this version of reality is not one that is out there. I get a bit lost with your single quotation marks and double quotation marks but you do seem to be insinuating selectivity or possibly embroidery or even something worse than embroidery in my reports from the front line (hardly Gaza of course).

    Much apathy in Clovenstone. Lot of people in the 6-7-8 flat tenements not registered. Most take a leaflet. One man handed me back the leaflet and was getting back to Skype with his son in New Zealand. One woman told me she could not read or write so I filled in the form to register her to be allowed to vote. She did not say which way she was voting. Lots of people not yet out of bed? some folk in but not answering the doors. Most dogs were quite small.

    At work quite a few people are surprised that I am a No. Not sure what that says. Not sure where you work but I do not assume anything about how someone might vote regardless of how they seem. I am only aware of one person at work who everyone knows not to mention the referendum around. We also have one pal who you just don't go there with. I draw no conclusion from the fact that they are both Yes.

    When I am out canvassing I am generally just trying to establish numbers on either side. With the undecideds I don't try to convince them with rhetoric etc, just give them a leaflet. A lot of people are very bored by all of this.

    One of the other things I like to try to extract is a laugh. Some people are quite dour.

    The Persians tell the tale of the Laughing Stone, I may have. Mentioned this before? The laughing Stone is in tibet and if the traveller sees it, he or she begins to laugh uncontrollably and continues laughing until they die. The Persians say the Tibetans are immune because they have no humour.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  6. Nelly
    Member

    Wife got her polling card yesterday. Only a month to go until (most of) the arguments cease.

    Straw poll out festivalling last night - of 7 of us there, I am the only Yes!

    Posted 9 years ago #

  7. chdot
    Admin

    "
    SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: ALEX Salmond is losing the battle to convince voters that his currency plans are credible – yet people are still moving to a Yes vote, a new poll reveals today.

    ...

    Despite Darling’s success in taking on Salmond on the currency, the No campaign has been criticised for failing to 
offer a positive vision of Scotland within the United Kingdom. Better Together has also been attacked for failing to appeal to the hearts of voters, to whom questions of national identity, patriotism and their gut feelings come into play on 18 September.

    The poll also suggested that Better Together’s assurances that a No vote would secure more powers for the Scottish Parliament is failing to make much ground with the public.

    "

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/yes-vote-advancing-despite-currency-fears-poll-1-3511982

    So people don't trust/believe politicians!

    Posted 9 years ago #

  8. gembo
    Member

    Bbc is for forecasting a hail shower at a point in time next week. Can't say more as Nats are finding out from websites where No lot are going and turning up in their cavalcade of single driver vehicles. To provide proclaimers soundtrack. Now I like the proclaimers but the 500 miles song is starting to grate.

    Anyway this hail is going to cause havoc with the hairdo of a big lanky galoot from the west

    Posted 9 years ago #

  9. chdot
    Admin

    WARNING: PR/marketing 'story'

    "

    BRANDS strongly identified with Scotland could face a “buy English” backlash south of the Border in the event of a Yes vote, it has been claimed. Businesses have said English consumers may reach for alternative home-grown produce as they assert their own national identity in the wake of a break up of the United Kingdom.

    Acc­ording to Andrew Nelstrop, managing director of the English Whisky Company, based at the St George’s distillery in Norfolk, the knock-on benefits for the nascent English whisky sector were obvious.

    "

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scots-brands-could-face-buy-english-backlash-1-3511976

    That'll be the end of Tunnock's Teacake exports.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  10. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Attempts to persuade traditional Labour supporters to vote Yes in the independence referendum have been described as “cynical” by Alistair Darling.

    The leader of the Better Together campaign said independence would lead to “austerity plus for decades to come”.

    "

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/independence-labour-vote-pitch-cynical-says-darling-1-3511771

    "Cynical"? -what about pretending that your crystal ball is working again!

    So, the next Westminster government will give us austerity (I think the three main parties have promised that), an independent Scotland would have "austerity plus" - that sounds better...

    Posted 9 years ago #

  11. Instography
    Member

    There's a few interesting analyses of the impact of border effects - the extent to which trade is lowered by the existence of borders. Some US / Canada analysis and within-EU. The EU is more interesting because the analysis still finds that trade is still lower than you might expect even where borders are more permeable.

    Of course, it's all estimated and modelled because you can't take away borders just to see what happens and none of it deals with the creation of a border where one didn't previously exist or just changes in politics with no change in what you see on the ground.

    That English whisky is horrible even though the Welsh, Japanese and Indian makers manage fine, so it would be a shame if more of it were inflicted on the world.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  12. gembo
    Member

    There is some nice spirit getting made in Southwold at the Adnams brewery. It is as yet three years old. Laughably they want same cash as a 12 year old malt so they can fuhgedabbowtit

    The welsh stuff is nice though also pricey.

    I have grappled for many years with the fact that I prefer Irish whiskey to scotch and maybe bushmills malt is my favourite malt.

    This is my confession.

    Largely on the Havana club seven year old. Hangovers less fierce. Had a couple in the black rose tavern on Friday which is a hard rock fish and chip shop par excellence that sells booze and then puts bands on. There was a woman who looked very posh, pearls, blue shirt with white collar tucking into a battered cod with gusto whilst being surrounded by goths,emos and white snake fans. We were sitting with the band as there is not a lot of room. Also quite sticky on all surfaces due to the grease from the chippy.The band were good. Looked like they cycled/walked their kit in. We then went to a student theatre thing. Total festival.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  13. chdot
    Admin

    You can't believe everything you read in the papers #101 -

    "

    Poll: Yes need just 2% swing and NHS is key to win female vote

    A new poll shows the Yes campaign requires just a 2% swing to win the referendum, and that a focus on the NHS could...

    "

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/poll-nhs-is-the-key-in-bid-to-win-female-vote-for-yes.25067884

    Fortunately (for Gembo) no-one reads the SH.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  14. gembo
    Member

    Good one, yes just need 2% swing to still be a minimum of ten per cent behind, ah wait but of course maybe includes true fact that all undecideds are of course really to be counted as yes's too in increasingly desperate SNP manipulation of data? I noted one headline might have been Sunday post that Nicola sturgeon is poised to take over following a No vote. I did not read it though.

    Oh please. The polls are consistent over time. People might be lying to the pollsters, the same way as Sunday herald is lying to its reader.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  15. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Yet, despite the differences, Fox says the SSP are ready to work alongside the SNP because they share the same goal of a Yes vote.

    However, after that it might get rocky again.

    Fox believes the SNP White Paper is a "contribution" to a post-Yes Scotland but "shouldn't necessarily be seen as the final word on it".

    And to ensure independence isn't just what the SNP want, he is insisting that the SSP would be in the core negotiating team with London.

    "

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/the-middle-classes-in-scotland-are-complacent-they-pay-lip-service-to-pover.25053495

    Posted 9 years ago #

  16. crowriver
    Member

    From The Observer:

    "Alex Salmond puts focus on NHS as poll shows pro-independence gain
    No campaign leads by 55% to 45% excluding undecideds    "

    "Scotland's leading historian makes up his mind: it's Yes to independence
    The marriage with England was based on convenience, not love, says prizewinning author Sir Tom Devine. Now it is time to split    "

    'In an exclusive interview, Devine said that at the outset of the campaign he had been a firm no supporter, though he had favoured a "devo-max" arrangement with extra powers devolved to Holyrood. He had been persuaded by what he believes has been a flowering of the Scottish economy in a more confident political and cultural landscape. "This has been quite a long journey for me and I've only come to a yes conclusion over the last fortnight," he said.'

    Posted 9 years ago #

  17. Morningsider
    Member

    The concerns raised about the NHS in these media reports are based on defective understanding of how the system works, for two reasons:

    1. Health is effectively entirely devolved - decisions on the future of NHS Scotland lie with the Scottish Government, including the involvement of the private sector and the level of funding.
    2. Any privatisation of NHS England will not have an impact on the Scottish Government's budget. Does the UK Government intend to allow private providers to run NHS services - almost certainly a resounding yes. However, these services will still be paid for by the taxpayer - so no Barnett formula implications. Remember - parts of NHS England are already provided (in large part) by the private sector (cleaning, catering etc) and this has had no impact on the Scottish budget.

    The UK Government would have to effectively abolish NHS England (replacing it with a social insurance or private sector system) for there to be major implications for the Scottish budget.

    Also, I'm sure you all are all too smart to have fallen for the bilge about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership meaning we have to open the NHS to private sector competition. Details on why this is not the case from the European Commission:

    http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/index.cfm?id=1115

    I'm all for robust debate - but this is verging on misinformation about a very important (and emotive) subject about which most people will have fairly limited knowledge.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  18. chdot
    Admin

    @M

    You make it sound so easy!

    I'm sure you're right, but if it's that simple, why is the SNP 'trying it on' and (to some extent) getting away with it?

    (That's almost a rhetorical question.)

    Posted 9 years ago #

  19. gembo
    Member

    Because Alex salmond is a consummate bluffer

    Posted 9 years ago #

  20. crowriver
    Member

    verging on misinformation about a very important (and emotive) subject about which most people will have fairly limited knowledge.

    Funny you say that. Do you mean, like the 'debate' on currency, EU membership, financial services, interest rates and so on that 'No Thanks' have foregrounded to date?

    Let's face it, the majority of the Scottish public have 'fairly limited knowledge' of how government works, how the Barnett formula works, how various government services are managed, how currency markets, state debt, international treaties and so on function.

    So to use that as a basis for dismissing an argument as "based on defective understanding of how the system works" or "verging on misinformation" is rather a moot point, given that many, many arguments around the referendum campaign are based on similar 'principles'.

    Let's take your points though:

    "1. Health is effectively entirely devolved"

    Yes, but as has been pointed out repeatedly here, if the Scottish block grant is cut, it will be increasingly difficult to fund the NHS at current levels without cutting other public services drastically.

    "2. Any privatisation of NHS England will not have an impact on the Scottish Government's budget. "

    It rather depends how that privatisation is done, does it not? How the private contracts are paid for; what charges are levied at the point of use; and so on.

    "The UK Government would have to effectively abolish NHS England (replacing it with a social insurance or private sector system) for there to be major implications for the Scottish budget."

    Now that *is* misinformation. All that is required for 'major implications' for the Scottish budget is for that budget to be cut. It's really as simple as that. Cuts could come in many different ways: through the current 'austerity' deficit reduction programme; through abolishing Barnett in favour of a "needs based" budget allocation; changes to the way in which services in England are funded in areas which are devolved to Scotland (so called 'Barnett consequentials'); or simply a cut in the NHS budget in England.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  21. Instography
    Member

    Individual polls are useful only if we can be confident that they're a reasonable reflection of what's happening among the population as a whole. I think I showed above, comparing individual companies to the Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys that polls from Panelbase are perhaps the least useful of all. Compared with SSAS, they seem to overstate support for Yes by about 8 points, pretty much as they did last year (7).

    There's been very little change in the average of the polls since March. It's been 44% Yes in each of June, July and (so far in) August.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  22. gembo
    Member

    @morningsider, if you have the inclination to address any of crowriver's points, remember he is never wrong. :-)

    Posted 9 years ago #

  23. Instography
    Member

    Crowriver just seems to be saying that the Scottish block grant can be cut if the Westminster parliament decides to change the funding basis. If that happens, the NHS in Scotland can be cut, even if privatisation in England and Wales doesn't lead directly to cuts in Scotland. That is, of course, true and is, in effect, just a way of saying that Scotland should be independent because Scotland isn't independent.

    The bit I don't understand is why, if needs based allocation were possible, you wouldn't support that. I guess it depends on who's doing the assessing. But it does appear that Barnett has become a bit of a sacred cow.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  24. gembo
    Member

    @morningsider, if you have the inclination to address any of crowriver's points, remember he is never wrong. :-)

    Posted 9 years ago #

  25. chdot
    Admin

    "But it does appear that Barnett has become a bit of a sacred cow."

    You mean untouchable - by Westminster?

    Posted 9 years ago #

  26. Morningsider
    Member

    crowriver - I don't represent anyone except myself. I am happy to agree, or disagree with aspects of each campaign and have done so throughout this thread. Although I think they have both been pretty woeful.

    Are you really saying that people shouldn't challenge what they see as factual inaccuracies or misrepresentations because other arguments were based on factual inaccuracies or misrepresentations? I'm not a campaign group - I just comment where I feel I have something to add.

    Anyway - I'm perfectly well aware that a cut to the Scottish block grant could have an impact on NHS Scotland's budget as it is the largest single budget under Scottish Government control. Ultimately, that is a matter for the Scottish Government - which sets the budget for NHS Scotland. That isn't what is at issue here though - here's a quote from an article in the yes supporting Sunday Herald:

    "The Yes campaign has warned that privatisation and budget squeezes in the NHS south of the Border could see knock-on effects, possibly including cuts or even privatisation in the NHS in Scotland." (1).

    However, a Women for Independence spokesperson (2) highlights that 70% of NHS England contracts were awarded to private firms last year - which has had precisely zero impact on NHS Scotland's budget or structure.

    This shows that private companies are already extensively used in NHS England, with no implications for Scotland. The way the UK Government has altered the set up of NHS England is to allow public sector commissioning of health services that can be provided by either public or private sector companies. The taxpayer will still foot the bill - so no Barnett implications for Scotland.

    I'm perfectly happy for a new needs-based funding allocation formula to replace Barnett - difficult to see how you can argue with that (assuming the criteria are fair).

    I'm happy to be proved wrong about this though, if you have any examples of NHS England privatisation that have had an impact on NHS Scotland's budget or structure then I would be keen to know about them.

    (1) http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/poll-nhs-is-the-key-in-bid-to-win-female-vote-for-yes.25067884
    (2) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/17/scottish-independence-poll-yes-gains-ground

    Posted 9 years ago #

  27. Instography
    Member

    I've never understood why Barnett has become such a sacred cow.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  28. crowriver
    Member

    "SCOTLAND’S oil and gas revenues could be up to six times higher than those forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)" (Sunday Times)

    Posted 9 years ago #

  29. gembo
    Member

    Interesting is moving on to speculation about oil revenues a tacit acceptance that morningsider's analysis of NHS is the right one?

    Posted 9 years ago #

  30. gembo
    Member

    Interesting is moving on to speculation about oil revenues a tacit acceptance that morningsider's analysis of NHS is the right one?

    Posted 9 years ago #

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