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White Paper (THE #indyref thread)

(2915 posts)
  • Started 10 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from chdot
  • This topic is closed

  1. crowriver
    Member

    @Morningsider

    "I don't represent anyone except myself."

    Ditto. I never accused you of anything else, did I?

    "Are you really saying that people shouldn't challenge what they see as factual inaccuracies or misrepresentations because other arguments were based on factual inaccuracies or misrepresentations?"

    That's not what I said. In summary, I said using people's "fairly limited knowledge" of a topic as a basis to argue that a position is "verging on misinformation" is a moot point given the overall 'debate'.

    "I'm not a campaign group - I just comment where I feel I have something to add."

    Ditto. I never accused you of anything else, did I?

    "I'm perfectly well aware that a cut to the Scottish block grant could have an impact on NHS Scotland's budget as it is the largest single budget under Scottish Government control. Ultimately, that is a matter for the Scottish Government - which sets the budget for NHS Scotland."

    It does not set the budget, it divides up the block grant into budget allocations. Yes there is flexibility within those spending limits, but as you say if the block grant is reduced this will force 'difficult choices' (Blairspeak alert) to be made on public spending commitments.

    "here's a quote from an article in the yes supporting Sunday Herald"

    Okay, but your original response was in relation to the Observer article link I posted (the second link you footnote in you second response on this topic), which did not claim any direct link between *current* NHS privatisation and consequential cuts.

    In any case, even in the SH quote it would appear to be looking at what's coming up in the future, not what is happening now. This is alluded to in the Observer too, looking at what will happen over the next decade given the continuing 'austerity' regime, demographic changes, etc.

    "This shows that private companies are already extensively used in NHS England, with no implications for Scotland. The way the UK Government has altered the set up of NHS England is to allow public sector commissioning of health services that can be provided by either public or private sector companies. The taxpayer will still foot the bill - so no Barnett implications for Scotland."

    It's not as simple as that - see below. Also, if patient charges to visit GPs are introduced it will have an impact. Just one example of what think-tanks are floating, which may or may not be picked up in Whitehall.

    "I'm perfectly happy for a new needs-based funding allocation formula to replace Barnett - difficult to see how you can argue with that (assuming the criteria are fair)."

    Well there's the nub: the criteria. What does "fair" mean in this context? The implication of that statement is that you're happy for Scotland to be treated administratively like a region of England, rather than a (supposedly) equal partner in a union. Is that "fair"? If devolution means anything, shouldn't the Scottish Parliament and Government be deciding what Scotland's needs are?

    Let's not be naive about Barnett: if it goes, Scotland wlll no longer receive a straight percentage share of the UK budget for devolved areas. Instead ministers in Whitehall will decide what Scotland needs. How will they determine what Scotland needs in each devolved area? According to their own policies and priorities? Or according to the Scottish Parliament and Government's policies and priorities? Which do you think is more likely?

    "I'm happy to be proved wrong about this though, if you have any examples of NHS England privatisation that have had an impact on NHS Scotland's budget or structure then I would be keen to know about them."

    I understand the UK government has trailed the Health and Social Care Act and its privatisation agenda as delivering savings to the public purse of up to £1 billion per year through to 2019/20. That is, public expenditure will be cut by this amount: the consequential cuts to the Scottish block grant would be in the order of £600 million over the next 6 years.

    You don't have to take my word for it though: Labour’s Shadow Health Secretary Andy Burnham said “privatisation is being forced through at pace and scale”. He also warned “people are facing charges for services or treatments that are free to others elsewhere.” He's also claimed that the coalition has “put the NHS up for sale” and stated “if we allow the continued advance of the market into the NHS it will eventually destroy everything that’s precious about it.”

    Posted 9 years ago #
  2. crowriver
    Member

    "I've never understood why Barnett has become such a sacred cow."

    @Instography, because it allocates a budget to Scotland based on population share, rather than allocating on the basis of "need" as determined by Whitehall.

    If anyone seriously thinks a needs-based syxtem run by Whitehall is a good idea, just look at how the regions of England see their needs funded compared to how London's needs are funded.

    Make no mistake, a needs-based system of funding for Scotland would see funding cut substantially. After all, London's "needs" are so much greater than everywhere else's.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  3. Instography
    Member

    It's a wee bit odd that the only oil and gas report on the N-56 website doesn't seem to contain that claim. Maybe a new one that isn't on their website yet. Could you post the reference?

    It doesn't seem to fit with their document The Facts, where they seem to be expecting oil revenues to fall.

    "The oil and gas sector is discussed in further detail in Chapter 13, which shows that while production has been falling by around 5% per year, there are still significant reserves and the sector is likely to continue to make a significant contribution to the Scottish economy well into the 2040s. In the longer term it will be necessary to fill the gap between onshore tax revenues and public spending, either by cutting public spending or stimulating additional economic growth (and therefore tax revenues). This will need to be addressed whether Scotland becomes independent or whether it remains in the UK."

    Maybe something significant has changed since The Facts was published. Officially confused.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  4. crowriver
    Member

    @Insto, you can find the new oil report here: http://n-56.org/

    Posted 9 years ago #
  5. Instography
    Member

    @crowriver
    In principle, do you think resources should be allocated according to needs? I mean, is it just that you don't trust Westminster or that you don't feel Wales' needs should be reconsidered? The Welsh seem keen on a needs-based system.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  6. Instography
    Member

    "you can find the new oil report here: http://n-56.org/"

    Yeah, that's where I was looking and found Oil and Gas Part 1, which doesn't seem to contain any claims about revenues being substantially higher than OBR forecasts. It does say that, "By 2060 production from the Scottish Continental Shelf is likely to be relatively insignificant."

    Is there another report I'm missing?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  7. crowriver
    Member

    @Insto, I don't know, I can't read all the Sunday Times article due to the paywall, so I've no idea where they got the oil revenues figures from. The oil reserves estimates are from that report, however.

    2060? If I live that long I'll be well over 100 years of age. Can I/we be bothered to stay alive to test these predictions against reality? Will science have perfected unlimited fusion energy for all by then? Who knows?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  8. Instography
    Member

    Me neither so I'm just going to ignore that Sunday Times thing until I can track down the report. It would be interesting to see how they come up with that figure since the OBR's track record is abysmal but in the opposite direction - the actual revenues have been substantially less than their forecasts. (Although to be fair, I think OBR's record is better than the Scottish Government's).

    I'm assuming the "apolitical" (i.e. Reform Scotland) think tank's calculations are using both heroic output and price assumptions to come up with something that much higher than OBR's forecast.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  9. chdot
    Admin

    Well this guy was just on R4 Today talking about the six times -

    "

    At least as much value remains to be produced but we must act now to ensure that the remaining potential of Scotland’s offshore oil and gas reserves is fully realised.

    Graeme Blackett

    George Street

    Edinburgh

    "

    http://www.scotsman.com/mobile/news/opinion/letters/oil-sector-reform-1-3502825

    Basic argument seemed to be need for tax incentives to ensure maximum amount of known reserves recovered.

    He was countered by someone saying that 6x ''wasn't possible' and sticking to the view that OBR had generally been (over)optimistic to date and SG wasn't predicting significant (extra) future revenue either.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  10. Instography
    Member

    Yes, he wrote the report. He runs Biggar Economics and is on the Advisory Board of Reform Scotland. I think they were strong Devo Max advocates.

    So, is he saying that if you squeezed every drop out, mainly by shovelling 'incentives' into companies' pockets, it would be x6?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  11. chdot
    Admin

    "So, is he saying that if you squeezed every drop out, mainly by shovelling 'inentives' into companies' pockets, it would be x6?"

    That seemed to be it - but no explanation of how his org/report could account for such a significant deviation from 'conventional wisdom'.

    I think there are also assumptions about future oil prices. The other guy (didn't note name - 'former senior Scottish civil servant') pointed out 'unknown - due to shale oil and geo-politics'.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  12. chdot
    Admin

  13. steveo
    Member

    Shale Gas seems to be the spanner in the works for the North Sea. Up until the (very) cheap gas came on-stream there would have been little need to provide incentives for the North Sea. The recession didn't help much either but that only set the oil price back a decade.

    If the oil price resumes its march from 2006-07 then there will be plenty of incentive to get all the oil out the North Sea, it'll still be cheaper and easier to refine than some of the other marginal sources, Canadian Oil Sands, Brazil deep water, the deep water plays in the GOM to name a few. And regardless of what happens post referendum the political climate will still be much more stable than most of the worlds big oil supplies. Good quality crude + stable working climate = good profits.

    Oil companies want to extract every penny from a barrel so will quite happily tell any one who will listen that they're moving out of a region. Even if a big player does move out a smaller one will quite happily move and accept a lower percentage return than say Exxon or Shell.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  14. slowcoach
    Member

    Insto- Part 2 of the report is on the N-56 website today.
    I particularly liked "The OBR was set up in 2010 and so has not existed for long enough to assess its
    long term forecasting accuracy." N-56 was setup in 2014.
    Described by A Salmond as "a leading business organisation", it lists 2 people in its organisation on its website.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  15. crowriver
    Member

    @slowcoach, in fairness the author of the report set up Biggar Economics in 2002, so he has 8 years on the OBR.

    @Instography

    "In principle, do you think resources should be allocated according to needs? I mean, is it just that you don't trust Westminster or that you don't feel Wales' needs should be reconsidered? The Welsh seem keen on a needs-based system."

    Principles? This is about gaining financial advantage. Wales is arguing for its preferred needs based funding mechanism because such a system would be assumed to fund Wales more generously in future. Scotland argues for the population based Barnett formula because it might lose funding under a needs based system.

    Being part of England historically has not very good for Wales and the Welsh in many ways, but Wales has fought for, and won, considerable powers in recent years. Wales can perfectly well argue for what could be seen as a fairer system in Wales' interests. I wonder though if Westminster will allow it? If the system Wales proposes were adopted UK-wide including the English regions, London and the South East as the wealthiest areas would likely lose a lot of money. Scotland would also lose out. Certainly Milliban doesn't seem keen on the funding system proposed by the Assembly's recent report on Barnett.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  16. Instography
    Member

    "Principles? This is about gaining financial advantage."

    I see. You won't be too surprised if people take the same view of pretty much anything redistributive or self-interested: if they do what's best for themselves and to hell with talk of needs and principles.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  17. Morningsider
    Member

    Here's what the OBR has to say on forecasts and projections on oil and gas receipts and how they have worked their figures out:

    http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.org.uk/SPFCletter.pdf

    Only a few pages long.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  18. crowriver
    Member

    @Instography

    "You won't be too surprised..."

    I just want to correct the impression that you seem to have that my *personal* standpoint is equivalent to the Scottish or Welsh government's positions on Barnett. These latter are entirely about gaining financial advantage, and the differing concepts of "fairness" are applied by each government in pursuit of its goals: ie. acquiring more or retaining existing funding.

    I answered your query on my "principle" with a description of the realpolitik involved because it is frankly irrelevant whether I, personally think Barnett or some as yet to be defined needs based funding system is fairer, more proper or whatever. Also the issue of whether I trust Westminster is moot: it does not affect the respective political positions I described.

    What is difficult to refute is that if Barnett is abolished, Scotland will lose funding. A needs based system may or may not lead to greater funding for Wales, it depends upon what the system is, the criteria applied, etc. as you have already surmised. Other "needs" may outrank Wales'. It is also far from clear whether the Welsh assembly's preferred funding mechanism will ever see the light of day except as a recommendation in their own (self-interested) report.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  19. Instography
    Member

    Not at all. I would expect your personal standpoint to be consistent with your political beliefs, expressed here. Those have always seemed to me to promote issues of environmentalism, social justice, redistribution etc. which involve asking people to set aside, at least to some extent, purely personal interests in favour of a greater social good. I found the idea that Governments should simply pursue their own financial advantage quite surprising since beyond the Barnett issue it leads to some unfortunate outcomes.

    There is, of course, the problem of defining 'need' but in principle allocating resources according to need seems inherently better. If changing the Barnett formula means that Scotland loses then so be it but provided the needs assessment is reasonable, losing out in the assessment suggests that Scotland is receiving money that it doesn't need.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  20. crowriver
    Member

    @Instography, if you want to know my position in relation to the redistribution of resources between various nations, provinces and regions within the UK, it is quite simple. Scotland ought to dissolve its union with England and thus we won't have to concern ourselves with whether Wales, Northern Ireland, London or Manchester have "needs" for government funding which outweigh one another's in the UK framework of inter-departmental transfers. Except that is as an exercise in analysing our close neighbours and how they do things.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  21. crowriver
    Member

    There is, of course, the problem of defining 'need'

    In UK politics, as in many places, it largely comes down to local boosterism.

    For example London "needs" the Olympics, Crossrail, Eurostar, HS2, the M25, etc.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  22. chdot
    Admin

  23. Instography
    Member

    It sounds a little sad and isolationist when you say it like that. But even if we remove ourselves from having to consider the needs of our near neighbours, we'll still have the problems of assessing needs internally, between local authorities and services.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  24. crowriver
    Member

    Prof David P. Redlawsk of Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, said: “We are emotional beings. Emotions drive much of what we do and if we think about politics, it really is about emotions.

    “Research I’ve done shows that people who try to pay too much attention to the facts actually often to a worse job in making a decision than those who go with a sense of a gut feeling.”

    So, 'undecideds' are just bad decision makers who pay too much attention to facts?

    We already knew the Nos are a bunch of fearties.

    ;-)

    P.S.:- That last emoticon was intended to evoke a sense of cheeky irony, in case anyone decides to take offense (hopefully not).

    Posted 9 years ago #
  25. crowriver
    Member

    @Instography,

    "It sounds a little sad and isolationist when you say it like that."

    Not at all. This is what freedom of agency entails. Not to have to wait on grace and favour extra handouts from the centralised post-imperial bureaucracy in Whitehall. The Uk government collects revenues from the people and territory of Scotland and then gives some of it back, currently according to a population based formula, and resdistribute the rest as it sees fit. No longer being part of these UK state mechanisms does not imply that Scotland withdraws into itself, cutting off relations with neighbours and countries far and wide: far from it. Surely you're not suggesting that the UK state apparatus is some happy, benificent utopia where resources are shared equitably, rather than fought over tooth and nail in departmental negotiations with HM Treasury?

    "even if we remove ourselves from having to consider the needs of our near neighbours"

    I'm not advocating that we don't consider anything. We can consider away, we just won't have to decide, administer, carve up, make deals, cajole, bully, blackmail and bluster to maintain the "allowance" Westminster grants us so generously from our own taxes.

    "we'll still have the problems of assessing needs internally, between local authorities and services."

    Indeed, and it can be done better than the current set-up. Being in control of our own revenues and taxes would help.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  26. gembo
    Member

    As with the previous discussions around Barnett, NHS etc, local authorities already receive the majority of their finances as a grant from Scottish govt. The rest they generate in council tax.

    Post hypothetical independence I am not aware in the white paper of a new system of workers' communes being set up to administer government money at the local level?

    So this will be another thing that will be the same?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  27. crowriver
    Member

    @gembo, I'm assuming you were being sarcastic, but taking your comments at face value I'm not aware of any parties in Scotland who are proposing "workers communes" to run local government. Is that a bit like soviets? Maybe Colin Fox and the SSP, or their former comrade Tommy Sheridan and Solidarity are proposing these things. Oh I suppose the SWP will be doing so too. There, that's three, you can vote for them!

    As to the SNP position, I suppose you can't bring yourself to read it but on page 368 of 'Scotland's Future' it says:

    "Independence will also provide the platform to embed the role of Scottish local authorities in a written constitution. The Scottish Government will embed the position of local government in the constitutional platform and argue for Scotland’s written constitution, post-independence, to recognise the status and rights of elected local government. Such constitutional recognition is normal in developed democracies such as Germany, Denmark and Sweden, and this should also be the case in a modern, independent Scotland.
    A constitutional provision such as this would enable Scotland to fully implement an important aspect of the European Charter of Local Self-Government. That Charter commits states to applying basic rules guaranteeing political, administrative and financial independence of local authorities. In particular it provides that: “The principle of local self-government shall be recognised in domestic legislation, and, where practicable, in the constitution”387.
    Given the lack of a written constitution, the UK – or a devolved Scotland within the UK – would find it impossible to provide this degree of constitutional recognition to local government."

    If you're really keen to know more, paragraphs 635-642 (pp. 576-578) cover Scottish Local Authorities. Rather than me attempting to summarise all that, maybe have a read and see what you think?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  28. gembo
    Member

    'Struth, how have we survived as highest rated UK city without this charter?

    Seriously, thank you for pinpointing the paras. To read as I find the magic paper that will come to pass by magic to be a little soporific

    Posted 9 years ago #
  29. chdot
    Admin

    For Gembo. -

    "

    Scotland has done well as part of the UK economy. Our energy costs are shared by households across the UK. Wind farms are only part of the solution. The oil price is volatile and in 50 years’ time may contribute very little to the economy.

    I have lived in Canada where the diverse provinces didn’t always agree but they are stronger together as one Nation. The British Isles are better and stronger together as one nation and that is why I am voting NO.

    "

    http://www.bettertogether.net/blog/entry/why-im-saying-no-thanks-mary-willington

    Posted 9 years ago #
  30. gembo
    Member

    Thanks CHdot, she looks like a very nice person and has clearly read the OBR report on volatile oil revenue. However, she does not look scared of spiders.

    Why for me?

    In my skewed version of reality I meet people like her every day. Surely you meant for crowriver as he lives in a different reality than mine?

    Posted 9 years ago #

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