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White Paper (THE #indyref thread)

(2915 posts)
  • Started 10 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from chdot
  • This topic is closed

  1. chdot
    Admin

    "I admire your optimism."

    Thanks.

    It's not really optimism, it's outlining POSSIBLE scenarios, that assume a post Yes transition will go smoothly (most unlikely!)

    OR

    In the event of a No (statistically probable) that there is isn't a complete collapse of the enthusiasm/political awaken that really has been happening.

    Assuming 40+ % vote Yes and a fair chunk of Nos would have voted for DevoMaxish, that's an awful lot of people not happy with the 'status quo'.

    It will be deemed that Better Together has won.

    Fine.

    Better together with the people of England and Wales (and Northern Ireland)?

    OK.

    And they are all happy with HoC/HoL/First Past the Post/Whitehall/'The City'/nuclear weapons/foreign wars/centralised rule/control/austerity/etc?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  2. dg145
    Member

    No, I don't think the English working class are a dead loss - and until recently formed my 'No' stance around that premise. However, as chdot points to above, maybe Scottish independence may be the catalyst for the English regions to rediscover their own identities in a new political environment.

    What is increasingly clear to me is that the 'working class' in the current UK IS a dead loss if the UK carries on it's current path.

    Time to try something different ... what we have is not working for too many people.

    As to socialists in the Scottish Parliament ... we're still too wedded to the current political models - which doesn't generally promote socialism.

    I'm optimistic about what we may see in a new Scotland. I know what we'll get in a continuing UK. I'm willing to take the chance on something else.

    "Work as if you live in the early days of a better nation"

    Posted 9 years ago #
  3. chdot
    Admin

    Oh, and there's an election in 9 months.

    Don't really think anyone will have an overall majority.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  4. chdot
    Admin

    "This strand of independence writes off the electorate of England"

    One lesson of the indyref is that non-party groups can form and make a difference.

    Obviously I accept that a referendum is not like a general election, but one strand of action was getting the electorate registered.

    It may turn out that they still don't vote.

    South of the border - in the rest of the united countries there are disaffected people who don't register, don't vote, vote for 'fringe' parties that seem to be addressing some of their issues.

    That's what passes for democracy.

    It helps (if you want to do well in professional politics) if you went to private school and then became a student politician, special advisor etc.

    Maybe bits of that could be changed...

    Posted 9 years ago #
  5. crowriver
    Member

    @Instography, hey dude you've gone all existential angst and pessimism on us. Relax, it's only politics. We're not deciding if someone (or a group of folk) will live or die. We're deciding how we want to be governed, the constitutional set up. That's all.

    Much to be optimistic about (subject to various caveats, as ever).

    As for socialists in the Scottish Parly, there are two Green MSPs. The Green party is pretty much the home of the left in parliamentary politics in Scotland these days, though the party includes a spectrum of views. Greens are not wedded to coal, steel and heavy industry like the old left were. There are new ideas around, but with a familiar ring, different ways to redistribute wealth, create a more equal society, and trying not to completely wreck the planet while building the future.

    Regarding the 1970s, during that time I lived as a small child, in an Edinburgh council estate, and then, in a small mill town in East Lancashire. Looking back, I think it's true that things changed in the 1970s, mainly the impact of consumerism and the growing obsession with owning property. I imagine this started even earlier in the south of England. (Hanif Quereshi's 'Buddha of Suburbia' is a good semi-autobiographical account of this time: read the book or watch the TV series).

    Thatcher coming to power was part of a process that had been going on for some time, that government accelerated trends in society, and pushed the polarisation of different economic and political interests. With Thatcher we saw a Tory party much more ruthless in the domestic sphere than previous post-war governments, more ideologically driven (by a belief in Monetarism and deregulation), on top of the old class interests. One of their first acts was to abolish capital controls: this let wealthy individuals and companies salt their investments away off-shore tax free, and consequently investment in industry dried up. That, and spiralling interest rates (designed to tackle inflation, see Monetarism) destroyed much manufacturing in the UK.

    There was also a slightly desperate harking back to imperial grandeur, banging the war drum, hoisting the union jack, sending amongst others, a young Keith Brown into battle against Argentine conscripts in the Falklands. By that time the Labour and Liberal parties had split and the short lived SDP project vainly attempted to take the centre ground of politics: "breaking the mould" they called it. This divided opposition, plus a trade union movement reeling from industrial collapse in the early 1980s, was what allowed the Tories to stay in power for so long. That dominance, and the social and economic changes driven through by successive Tory governments, was the real mould breaking: it recast New Labour in its own image, and set the economic and ideological conditions (the "legacy" we would call it these days) of what the Blair government would inherit.

    So one can say that the left was in decline, and conservatism on the rise in the 1970s. However the ideology and policies of the Thatcher government created many of the problems we now face: deregulated mega banks who swallowed up smaller competitors through mergers and acquisitions; loss of manufacturing industry; loss of social housing stock; rampant property price inflation; corporate tax avoidance; massive consumer debt; etc.

    In fairness New Labour did try to reform some of this around the margins, reversing some of the most iniquitous, totemic aspects of ideological Tory policies: including the quasi-colonial governance of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. They did not fundamentally change the economic policies though. The "third way" was effectively Thatcherism with a small 't', a friendlier handshake and a softer tone of voice.

    Phew, didn't quite mean to go on quite so long. None of this will come as a surprise to many of you who lived through that time. I do think though if we want to understand why we are here and now politically we need to look at what brought us to this point. To some extent, devolution in the late 1990s has allowed Scotland to tread a different political path from mainstream UK politics: the rise of the SNP, and the presence of smaller parties (especially in the early years of Holyrood) is testament to that, whether 'we' voted for them or not.

    If we look at that relatively short history of devolution we can see that there are new, or at least different possibilities that could open up following a Yes vote. Some folk find that prospect unnerving. Personally I'm much more worried about what might happen to politics after a No vote.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  6. wingpig
    Member

    "2060? If I live that long I'll be well over 100 years of age."

    "Regarding the 1970s, during that time I lived as a small child..."

    How old do you have to be before you stop being a small child?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  7. crowriver
    Member

    @wingpig, what I should have written was "nearly" 100 years of age, not "well over". Somehow the magic number 100 popped into my head...

    Posted 9 years ago #
  8. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Cut public spending in Scotland if it stays in UK, poll told

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-28859522

    Posted 9 years ago #
  9. Instography
    Member

    That was a good wee read Crow although having been born in 1963 I lived through it. Probably a little older if you weren't a small child until the 70s. I didn't think I was more pessimistic than usual.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  10. gembo
    Member

    @crowriver, the role of militant tendency within the labour movement / party needs a bit part in your summary, in my opinion.

    I am always blaming thatcher on here and getting pelters for it.

    That don't stop me, though she was a bit of a mouthpiece for oil companies etc.

    What is the green view on oil?

    As you hint at
    No one is being bombed in our wee country and the constitutional stooshie has taken up a great deal of energy and time. After sept 18th there won't be any change in broadest terms the constitution is merely a superstructure on top of the capitalist base. There is no dismantling of this base in the white paper. Any desire to see such a reconstruction of society has no chance in reality. The likelihood may be 0.000001 per cent higher in a tartanocracy.

    In the mike Myers vehicle So I married an axe murderer )don't be put off by the title, very funny if you just fast forward through the plot and dig the cameos from Alan arkin etc) Myers as his Scottish dad names the Pentamvirate as the rulers of the world - the pope, the queen, the Gettys, the Rothschilds and colonel Saunders.

    Now this misses out the Saudi sheikhs who control the world economy and maybe a few Russian oligarchs also with a lot of oil and gas and the Chinese politburo. Septamvirate it is then (add three and take away the colonel as he was punching above his weight in the Pentamvirate).

    Posted 9 years ago #
  11. crowriver
    Member

    @chdot, here's the link to the research statement from Cardiff/Edinburgh universities.

    The researchers seem genuinely shocked by their findings.

    Commenting on the research, Professor Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University said:

    "Given the consistent No lead in all recent opinion polls, there has been surprisingly little scrutiny of what the pro-union parties are promising after a No victory.

    Scotland has been promised that it can maintain its current advantageous position in terms of per capita public spending, and that there will be no change in the status of Scottish MPs at Westminster.

    But English voters clearly do not support this.

    There is strong English support for reducing levels of public spending in Scotland to the UK average – a development that would lead to savage cuts in public services north of the border. There is also overwhelming English support for limiting the role of Scottish MPs at Westminster.

    The question for Scottish voters is whether they can rely on pledges about the consequences of a No vote, when such pledges do not seem to be supported in the largest and most politically important part of the union? The truth of the matter is that the English appear in no mood to be particularly accommodating however the Scots choose to vote in their independence referendum."

    Professor Charlie Jeffery of the University of Edinburgh said:

    "It is striking how tough people in England are on Scotland whatever the referendum outcome. There appears to be little appetite for the Scottish Government’s vision of independence amid continuing partnership with the rest of the UK on the pound, Europe and NATO. If anything the message appears to be: ‘vote Yes by all means, but if you do, you’re on your own'.

    But if Scots vote No, there’s something similar at play. Here the message is: ‘by all means have more devolution, but you can’t then have the role at Westminster you do now, and don’t expect any funding to flow northwards from England’.

    Interestingly UKIP supporters are among the toughest of the lot. They appear to have little time for defending the UK so clearly proclaimed in their party’s title. They are the least opposed to Scottish independence, the most likely to disagree it would reduce the UK’s standing in the world, and the most likely to think England and Scotland will still drift apart if the Scots vote No.

    As their party matures, UKIP supporters look less and less like supporters of the UK’s independence and more and more like England’s national party."

    Posted 9 years ago #
  12. gembo
    Member

    @crowriver

    Something for everyone in that report? I liked the headline myself that 59% of the people surveyed don't want the UK to split up. 53 % of the respondents do not want independent Scotland to keep the pound etc.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  13. crowriver
    Member

    @Instography, just to clarify, I was a small child in 1970. By 1980 I was a teenager. Yeah, you got some years on me, but not many.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  14. SRD
    Moderator

    Had some no campaign people canvassing yesterday. I told them that I was undecided but following it carefully. The canvasser's tone suggested that the latter part of my response was not one he had heard much....

    Posted 9 years ago #
  15. Instography
    Member

    I'd like to see that Cardiff study's questionnaire. No point commenting until you've seen what people were asked to answer. As I keep telling the keen young researchers in the office - the biggest problem with questions is that people answer them. The 'investigators' then assume that people had a clue what they were saying.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  16. gembo
    Member

    @insto, the English respondents in the Cardiff/Edinburgh study certainly held some mutually contradictory views.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  17. SRD
    Moderator

    So true. Been kicking myself all day - writing up some results and everything we asked was wrong or we forgot to ask crucial things. Bah.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  18. Instography
    Member

    I can always have a few researchers to look at questionnaires for you. They need the practice.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  19. crowriver
    Member

    @Instography, if you follow that link above that I posted, the survey questionnaire summary is at the foot of the page, with tabulated results. That's why I linked to it.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  20. SRD
    Moderator

    Thanks insto. Should have been okay - had experienced student working in it. Just rushed too much. Kicking myself now.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  21. Instography
    Member

    Those two questions? That's what they call "the authoritative survey of English opinion on constitutional issues"? Surely not.

    If so, it means it's been on some kind of YouGov omnibus survey sandwiched between what questions we don't know. Soap powder? Pet food? Another set of political questions? Who knows. The worst kind of questionnaire design because you don't get to design it at all. And the omnibus is the worst kind of 'click don't think' survey.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  22. crowriver
    Member

    @Insto, apparently "The research is part of the Economic and Social Research Council's Future of the UK and Scotland work to inform the debate about constitutional change."

    Here's some more background on what is apprently an annual survey.

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/07/charlie-jeffery-england/

    Posted 9 years ago #
  23. Instography
    Member

    Jings. I should start talking things up a bit. Lights under bushels and all that. I've just done the authoritative survey of Scottish adults' opinions on banning cars around schools. Sadly I haven't got round to writing it up yet so I think I'll just authoritatively hand it out to anyone who can use it. 72% agree that you should.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  24. PS
    Member

    There is strong English support for reducing levels of public spending in Scotland to the UK average – a development that would lead to savage cuts in public services north of the border. There is also overwhelming English support for limiting the role of Scottish MPs at Westminster.

    This shouldn't be a problem though, given the Scottish Government's ability to vary tax rates and the Scottish people's well-recognised willingness to pay more tax in order to facilitate redistribution of wealth and to pay for public services...

    Posted 9 years ago #
  25. chdot
    Admin

    "72% agree that you should"

    Is this a CCE scoop?

    Well worth a decent write-up.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  26. chdot
    Admin

  27. chdot
    Admin

  28. Instography
    Member

    I'll email all the stuff to SRD tomorrow. There's limited likelihood of me getting round to it any time soon.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  29. crowriver
    Member

    @Insto,

    "I've just done the authoritative survey of Scottish adults' opinions on banning cars around schools. Sadly I haven't got round to writing it up yet so I think I'll just authoritatively hand it out to anyone who can use it. "

    I'd like to see that data.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  30. chdot
    Admin

    With reference to previous posts about 'leaving England to its fate' -

    "
    “We’re beyond left-right, authoritarian-libertarian—those arguments are for university [common rooms],” says Aker. “Our people want to know how we’re going to make their lives easier, simpler and how they can just get on and feel more comfortable. That’s it. It’s a blue-collar platform, but for people that want to aspire to achieve absolutely anything.

    "

    http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opinions/exclusive-what-will-ukips-election-2015-manifesto-look-like

    Of course UKIP will find it hard to get many MPs due to FPTP.

    In the event of a No will they target Holyrood?

    Ooh that sounds like a 'scare story'!

    However much people in England and Scotland are 'the same' there are two (slightly different) political systems which are still developing. Independence would make that even clearer.

    Whether that is an important consideration for referendum voters remains to be seen.

    Posted 9 years ago #

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