CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!

White Paper (THE #indyref thread)

(2915 posts)
  • Started 11 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from chdot
  • This topic is closed

1…737475…98

  1. Instography
    Member

    Nelly, you should read the report of the Strathclyde Commission. There's a strand of Tory thought that sees more devolution, greater fiscal autonomy, as essential for a Tory revival. The theory goes that it's only because of over-weaning subsidy that the crypto-Marxists in Holyrood get to buy the support of the poor and middle-class luvvies.

    I exagerate but not much. See how Alex Massie blogged on the Strathclyde Commission. Or how Prof Adam Tomkins, an advisor to the Strathclyde Commission, views it.

    Just for the record, I'm not advocating for them but it's useful to know how they think.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  2. chdot
    Admin

    "I can easily see the SNP telling the Yes movement that they can stand down and let the real politicians take over. What would they do about it?"

    Call me naive

    I find it hard to believe you really believe that.

    IF there is a Yes it will be clear to the active Yessers (including SNP people) that 'they' won it and won't just roll over and let the "real politicians" (and their civil servants) run the negotiations.

    Salmond (and others) are clearly talking about 'a negotiating team of all the talents' (or some such semi-meaningless phrase).

    He is talking about a Convention to write the Constitution etc.

    He may just be just another power mad politician, but I'm inclined to believe that he thinks "Scotland" is more important than him.

    Not sure that Cameron/Darling actually have as much belief in Britain (or is it the UK or even England) to stand aside.

    OK AS only said it 'if the brahan seer was in the audience'!!

    But even so.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  3. chdot
    Admin

    "There's a strand of Tory thought that sees more devolution, greater fiscal autonomy, as essential for a Tory revival."

    I think that any Tory that thinks will think that.

    I've said lots of times on here that they would do well in an independent Scotland.

    Ruth Davidson will be keen to be on AS's negotiating "Team Scotland".

    Posted 10 years ago #

  4. Instography
    Member

    Actually, I do believe it. The SNP hasn't come this far, campaigned for 80 years, endured 7 years of iron discipline in Government, to win and hand over the reins to a rainbow coalition of Trots and Greens. Which party would? The job of political parties is to win Government and the job of politicians is to win leadership. Individually and collectively, they're pretty much willing to do anything to achieve those.

    "some such semi-meaningless phrase". You said it.

    "He is talking about a Convention to write the Constitution etc" Here's one we prepared earlier. And they'll have a mandate for that too.

    In the White Paper and the draft consitution they're miles ahead of their foes and their (for now) allies. They're preparing the machinery of Government for the transition. I'm sure the negotiating team is picked (and I'll bet Alastair's not it in but McLeish might be) and the constitutional convention has a nice neat framework to work in. Like them or not, these guys are good.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  5. chdot
    Admin

    "win and hand over the reins to a rainbow coalition of Trots and Greens"

    Er, I think you are missing some points.

    I'm not in any sense suggesting that AS/SNP are about to go 'WE got you independence and are now going to leave the field' (Bannockburn/Eton/level/other) and let 'you' run the country.

    AS/SNP will try to get 'the best deal for Scotland' - and one that increases the chance of a another SNPGov in 2016.

    I suspect not a lot will happen/be agreed before next May when the next UKGov will be elected - with or withouts 'lots' of SNP MPs.

    I suspect the 18 month negotiating time/limit will stretch.

    Even if not, the 2016 Holyrood election will be most interesting.

    Maybe the SNP will remain resolutely united.

    Maybe the electorate will like the 'settlement' and 'reward' the SNP.

    Maybe not.

    No they won't elect a "rainbow coalition of Trots and Greens".

    Maybe enough to block a further SNP majority.

    Or maybe none as both the Tories and Labour will have re-imagined themselves.

    Maybe AS won't even be a candidate.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  6. crowriver
    Member

    I'm inclined to agree with Instography, except that on the constitution I think the SNP will see sense and be inclusive in that process. It's in their interests, I would suggest.

    Worth remembering that much prior consitutional change, ie. the two referenda on devolution, the framework for parliamentary powers for Holyrood, and so on, were firmly driven by Labour. So tight was their control indeed that the SNP refused to play along with much of it: a compromise too far for them.

    Will we see that same partisanship following a Yes vote? I hope not. Other voices than the SNP need to be heard after Yes. It's not just their Scotland, it's ours too. I think most in the SNP will recognise this, despite the natural inclination of politicians to hold onto power.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  7. calmac
    Member

    @insto, I think that's overly cycnical, and it suggests to me that you're not very familiar with the attitudes of SNP activists.

    All the activists I know - and it's a lot - are really enjoying working with the "rainbow coalition of Trots and Greens". I and other SNP members put out a leaflet for Green Yes on Sunday, which includes a section on how to join the Scottish Green Party.

    The activists are very idealistic. They genuinely believe in in the Yes movement and take pride in its breadth. If the SNP's leadership were p*ssing off the wider movement, the SNP activists would loudly support their new compadres.

    Also, again speaking about the activists I know, they don't have much loyalty to the the SNP as a party. Over the last 3 years there have been regular discussions about what we'll do after indy, and about a quarter of the members I know have said they'll join the greens or the trots. A few would join Labour if it stopped being so stupid and grew up. I suspect in practice they'd work to get an SNP government for the first term, to get the institutions of government bedded in, but after that I can't see how the SNP could remain the biggest party.

    At the 2011 election party - in which people were walking around in a giddy daze, asking everyone if they'd got elected to someone - there was aloads of talk that this was just the presursor to the main event - the referendum. Because the SNP emphatically does not exist to form governments. It exists to win independence, and everything else is designed to achieve that.

    In practice I don't see any way they could trust someone like Darling to negotiate for independence. But

    Oh, and the vast bulk of transition and negotiations are administrative things that are small potatoes and will be handled by the civil service. It's only on the big issues like currency, Trident, armed forces etc that wider voices will be needed.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  8. Instography
    Member

    The great thing about being cynical is that you're very rarely disappointed. It's really hard to be too cynical, especially where politicians are concerned.

    It may be true that the over-riding aim of the SNP is to win independence but having won it (assuming they overturn the odds and actually do it) they'll want to hang on to the Government. Just to make sure it all goes well. Isn't it just standard practice for leaderships of all kinds of movements to want to hang on to authority once they've won it? In the interests of the people and all that, of course.

    "The activists are very idealistic." But I suspect the leadership not so much.

    Anyway, we're a long way off watching that one play out, although I'll agree that it would easily be the much more interesting outcome.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  9. crowriver
    Member

    An interesting article for the canvassers and opinion pollsters out there.

    "Reading the public mood – why #indyref mass canvassing is no match for opinion polls"

    Deals with RIC mass canvassing, but the same applies to No Thanks door chapping I would imagine.

    Oh couldn't resist this photo from the article:

    Posted 10 years ago #

  10. Firedog
    Member

    Salmond was weak on the jobs post Trident, but apart from that was a clear winner.

    I think Salmond could have made a stronger point about jobs. I think Darling said loss of Trident could cost 8,000 jobs? Salmond should have made one of two points:
    (1) Using information from an FOI request that only around 500 people's jobs actually depend on Trident work.
    (2) For something that costs £4 billion or so a year, there are surely better job-creation programmes?

    Posted 10 years ago #

  11. chdot
    Admin

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scottish-independence-salmond-challenges-cameron-1-3520836

    Predictable, but not 'wise'.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  12. crowriver
    Member

    A tad hubristic of Salmond, like a boxer issuing challenges.

    Surely we could instead look forward to other voices debating? I understand there is to be an all female head-to-head 'twixt Sturgeon and Lamont. Again, unhelpfully SNP vs. Labour, but it is at least quines in suits instead of fellas.

    Lots of grassroots public discussions going on too: can't the media pick up on these or are they all just too freakin' lazy?

    Posted 10 years ago #

  13. chdot
    Admin

    "Surely we could instead look forward to other voices debating?"

    I was hoping for Patrick v Ruth.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  14. Instography
    Member

    Maybe hubris but still searching for that special something that can create at least a 7 point swing.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  15. chdot
    Admin

    "still searching for that special something"

    Well I suppose he is a gambler.

    But it's not really for him to gamble...

    Posted 10 years ago #

  16. chdot
    Admin

    "at least a 7 point swing"

    I wonder what the next polls will bring and when.

    The link above to the piece on polling v doorstepping basically says properly conducted polls are more reliable than 'amateur enthusiasts'. And 'the debates' won't really sway many people.

    Fair enough, but if all that is true and the polls (and presumably the actual vote) stay where they seem to be - all a lot of effort for not a lot!

    Posted 10 years ago #

  17. crowriver
    Member

    I saw a recent poll (maybe the ICM 'snap poll' or maybe another one) which put Yes at 43, No at 47, stripping out undecideds. Which would mean a 3 point swing is what Yes needs, would it not?

    Posted 10 years ago #

  18. Instography
    Member

    If it was the ICM poll yesterday then it doesn't mean anything. Not any kind of proper population sample. Last proper ICM poll had Yes on 44% with the DK stripped out. Same as the average of all polls. That's a 12 point gap so 7 gets you 51%.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  19. chdot
    Admin

    Tonight's BT TV 'ad'

    [+] Embed the video | Video DownloadGet the Video Player

    Posted 10 years ago #

  20. Instography
    Member

    If you don't know someone that that ad is targeted at then it might be worth wondering if your circle of friends and acquaintances has become too narrow.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  21. crowriver
    Member

    Clearly not targeted at "people like us", ie. the politically aware. Designed to prey upon the fears and anxieties of folk who "don't know much about politics". It's rather patronising to women, but it might resonate with some folk. I can think of some people I have met that this is targeted at, but I'm pretty sure they're leaning towards No anyway. Will it reach the undecideds? Not sure about that.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  22. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    I'm finding this 'new' 'initiative' quite amusing;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28944255

    Some dude was on radio 4 this morning to punt the dreadful uncertainty of life post-Yes. The presenter actually challenged him a bit on the possibility of England dragging Scotland out of the EU post-No and the dude just answered that business deals with uncertainty all the time and it wasn't a problem....and got away with it. There seems to be Uncertainty that business can cope with and McUncertainty that they can't cope with.

    My street is now festooned with Yes posters. I'm going to have to up my game and put my Yes flag up this weekend.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  23. chdot
    Admin

    "Uncertainty that business can cope with and McUncertainty that they can't cope with"

    Seems people in Scotland need to be protected from all sorts of uncertainty - by one side or the other..

    Ms. Lamont seemed absolutely certain that Labour will win next year (and therefore everything will be alright) on TV last night.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28943041

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04g487x

    Posted 10 years ago #

  24. crowriver
    Member

    "Labour will win next year (and therefore everything will be alright)"

    Yeah Darling seemed to be alluding to something similar. This is the complacency of the Labour party's message: don't worry, we'll be back in next year, we'll sort everything out, just trust us.

    B0llocks to that, frankly. If there's a No, the Tories will be in a much stronger position to win in 2015.

    The chair of the McBeeb debate punctured Lamont's complacency quite effectively with his comment after she waxed lyrical about poverty. To paraphrase slightly:

    "If as you say, you have spent your entire political career fighting poverty, and yet there are still a million people in poverty, doesn't that make your entire political career a failure?"

    How I laughed at that sharp wit. Lamont looked completely scunnered: not the brightest penny.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  25. Instography
    Member

    Ouch.

    Posted 10 years ago #

  26. chdot
    Admin

    "

    A referendum broadcast by Yes Scotland.

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04fm0th/referendum-campaign-broadcast-27082014

    Posted 10 years ago #

  27. chdot
    Admin

    Posted 10 years ago #

  28. chdot
    Admin

    "

    THE SNP’s plans to cut corporation tax could turn an independent Scotland into a tax haven for multinational companies like Google and Microsoft, Labour’s finance spokesman Iain Gray has claimed.

    He said Scotland would lose out on jobs and investment as companies used the country to channel money and avoid tax.

    But Finance Secretary John Swinney pledged that multinationals would pay their fair share in the event of a Yes vote.

    "

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-labour-tax-haven-fears-1-3523234

    I'm not convinced that the SNP plan to have lower CT than rUK is a 'good thing' - especially if there is any possibility of 'trade barriers', but IG's notion that an independent Scotland would just become a venue for brass plates seems odd!

    Posted 10 years ago #

  29. crowriver
    Member

    @chdot, the big day has come early for postal voters!

    Posted 10 years ago #

  30. crowriver
    Member

    In other news...

    Scottish independence: no campaign's new ad convinces some to vote yes
    Better Together's short film to appeal to undecided female voters instead pushes some to support independence

    'Sandra Grieve, former convener of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, told the Guardian that the advert had finally convinced her to vote yes.

    "It was the straw that broke the camel's back. I was a very clear no," said Grieve, who was a member of the Scottish Constitutional Convention which developed the framework for devolution, "but I've been increasingly uncomfortable with what I experience as a condescending smugness from Better Together."

    "When I watched it I felt like I'd been transported back to the 1950s. I found it really shocking that we would portray a woman in 2014 who didn't know the name of Scotland's first minister and left all her political thinking for her husband to do." '

    Posted 10 years ago #

RSS feed for this topic

1…737475…98

Topic Closed

This topic has been closed to new replies.


Video embedded using Easy Video Embed plugin