Crowriver, can you explain "If there's a No, the Tories will be in a much stronger position to win in 2015."?
The GB polls are still showing Labour enough ahead of the Tories to win in 2015, and only once in the last 8 elections has there been a big enough swing from the polls in the final 12 months to overturn that. Why do you think the likely No vote will help the Tories more than Labour?
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
White Paper (THE #indyref thread)
(2915 posts)- Started 11 years ago by Morningsider
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Posted 10 years ago #
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Yesterday's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. Or how about Sunday's ComRes poll for the Independent: CON 32%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 18%(+1).
Hardly "Labour enough ahead of the Tories to win in 2015", largest party possibly but not guaranteed: depends a great deal on how each constituency maps out, voter turnout, etc. (Tories more likely to vote).
A No would be a fillip for Cameron, and might see off the challenge from Boris/other stalking horses. Can't see it denting UKIP either.
Even if the seats tally with the projection there and nothing changes after a No, what are the odds of Lib Dems entering another coalition, this time with Labour? I reckon slim. Tories + UKIP (plus Ulster Unionists?) can still outvote Labour + Lib Dems.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Now that Nigel Carswell has gone done a defection from one right-wing anti-EU, anti-pretty-much-everyone-else-who-aren't-them party to another more extreme verion of the same, it's either looking worse for the Tories (lose seats to UKIP) or better (can do a coalition with UKIP), depending on which way you want to spin it.
That Labour are polling those sorts of figures when the coalition seems to be held pretty universally in contempt (even from its own side) really shows just how good a job Ed Milliballs is doing.
Posted 10 years ago # -
I had Jim Orr round this evening asking which way I planned to vote. For the duration of the conversation I stood there thinking 'your face is familiar, but I can't put a name to it'.
It was only later that I remembered his name, which was disappointing given that HankChief and I spent the morning with him last year talking about Gogar Station Road.
Posted 10 years ago # -
@slowcoach, I would have thought on the face of it a No vote in Scotland would help Labour in UK. The referendum is I believe going to be more like a Westminster election with Holyrood SNP voters switching back to labour. This would also be the situation in a UK election in 2015. IMO
However, I do have a query. If there was a yes vote how long would it take for Scottish labour MPs in Westminster to be made redundant? Could there be constitutional wrangling to the extent that Scotland is still voting in a Westminster election in 2015? Or would the Westminster election be the deadline for independence?
Posted 10 years ago # -
The Scottish Government position is that negotiations should be completed by May 2016 to allow the Scottish election that is due to take place then, be for the first independent government.
That would mean the 2015 Westminster elections would still be current UK wide. What would happen after independence is declared is unsure. If all Scottish seats cease to exist would Westminster have another election or just carry on? If labour had a majority based on Scottish seats then that would obviously change.
Posted 10 years ago # -
"Could there be constitutional wrangling to the extent that Scotland is still voting in a Westminster election in 2015? Or would the Westminster election be the deadline for independence?"
Um
Unless things have changed in some way -
2015 Westminster election wholly current system and constituencies.
Scottish MPs will be redundant on day of Independence - which AS claims will be 18 months after a Yes vote.
That date depends on the negotiations...
AS wants Independence to be sorted by the time of the 2016 Holyrood election.
Posted 10 years ago # -
"The referendum is I believe going to be more like a Westminster election with Holyrood SNP voters switching back to labour."
I assume you mean 'some people have been voting SNP for Holyrood and Lab for WM'(?)
If so - 'switching back' depends.
There is certainly a 'lend us your votes' pitch from SNP/Yes.
That will work for some Labour voters - but some won't switch back as they have finally/permanently(??) become disenchanted with UK/Scottish Lab.
How people in Scotland vote next year depends on a lot of things, but, primarily on Yes or No.
If No, how close.
Posted 10 years ago # -
"If No, how close"
Looking at Quebec data just now from 1995, which is interesting since both sides have heavily based their campaigns on that campaign. Polls didn't move much in the three weeks before the vote. At most, Yes campaign picked up +3 points with a couple of pollsters but nothing from others.
Worth adding that in Quebec, at that point, Yes was in the lead with most pollsters.
Posted 10 years ago # -
"which is interesting since both sides have heavily based their campaigns on that campaign. Polls didn't move much in the three weeks before the vote"
Which could happen here too.
But things are sufficiently different that I don't think that the Quebec experience can 'predict' what will happen in the Scottish Ref.
Posted 10 years ago # -
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@Survation: New Survation #indyref poll for Scottish Daily Mail
Yes - 42% (+4)
No - 48% (-3)
Undecided - 11% (-2) http://t.co/s5fDt8fmoM
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Survation (@Survation)
28/08/2014 22:33
New #indyref poll for Scottish Daily Mail excluding Undecided and refused: Yes 47%, No 53%http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-DM-2nd-Debate-Tables.pdf
"
Posted 10 years ago # -
When they say +4 you have to bear in mind that Survation has been polling Yes at 47% in three of its last four polls. The most recent was 43% but each of the previous three was 47%. To me that makes the last one odd and the current one = no change. Sorry.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Crowriver, the polls for Labour aren't great but much better than 2010 and even better than 2005: enough to give a majority of 30-40. See the chart on ElectoralCalculus and only for the '87 election was there enough shift from the polls a year out to the end result to give a Tory majority from where the polls are now.
And I don't see how the likely No vote could help Cameron much, if at all.Back to the White Paper: does it mention which time zone an Indy Scotland would have? the same as rest UK decides or what the Scottish Government wants?
Posted 10 years ago # -
It might be called Greenwich Mean Time. And it's certainly mean but it's as much our time zone as the rest of the UK's. We're keeping GMT.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Whilst we could continue to unofficially use GMT I think that would be a wasted opportunity. Its clear that Edinburgh is at least 15 minutes ahead of London at any given time. This should be reflected by a new EMT (GMT -00:15)
Posted 10 years ago # -
I think it's a bit like the EU, there are regular news stories about the UK pulling out of GMT, but perhaps an independent Scotland would like to retain GMT - maybe it's more likely to be kept in the event of a yes vote?
Should we vote yes to keep seeing the light??
Robert
Posted 10 years ago # -
Far from the rest of the UK providing additional light to Scotland, any objective analysis of the data, including the incidence of light-related illness, would show that allocation according the Sunhat Formula is just a reflection of Scotland's additional needs. Also, you can't just look at daylight in isolation. It's clear that in each of the last 300 years, if you include a geographical share of wind and rain, that Scotland has actually been subsidising the UK's total weather.
To listen to them you'd think being blown around in a gale or battered with rain was a curse rather than a blessing. Many hot countries would love to be in our position.
Posted 10 years ago # -
But with out the rest of the UK to help balance our weather Scotland would become a wetter, windier place almost overnight. You only have to look to the western islands to see the result of not being attached to a larger administration. Even the much vaunted Scandinavian counties have much higher instances of wind and cold weather.
Posted 10 years ago # -
It has been repeatedly and abundantly made clear by all of the conservative parties that both time and light will cease if Scotland votes Yes, so let's put this issue to bed.
Salmond must come up with another part of the electromagnetic spectrum to use (the much vaunted plan X-ray) and another means of ordering events in the three remaining spatial dimensions. In the meantime an actual event horizon will form between the Solway and the Tweed. Vote Yes only if you want to communicate with relatives in England by Hawking radiation.
Posted 10 years ago # -
IwratS - Vote Yes only if you want to communicate with relatives in England by Hawking radiation.
That's just part of the fear-mongering of the No campaign, patronisingly designed to appeal to the physics illiterate housewife.
In fact the singularity will provide an economic boost to the region, and will provide a source of power for many lifetimes.
Robert
Posted 10 years ago # -
"It has been repeatedly and abundantly made clear by all of the conservative parties that both time and light will cease if Scotland votes Yes"
That's just scaremongering nonsense.
Westminster wouldn't be that mean.
They might keep the Gulf Stream though.
Posted 10 years ago # -
@gembo, The referendum is I believe going to be more like a Westminster election with Holyrood SNP voters switching back to labour.
The problem is this is not an election, however much Labour are trying to turn it into one. For a start, your vote actually matters in the referendum, whereas it rarely does in a Westminster election.
Yes, I've met some Labour party loyalists/activists who believe a No vote is vital to keep their party in the running for Westminster. However a lot more people are much more open minded on the referendum, and do not see it in terms of party interests.
Posted 10 years ago # -
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@MoiraShemilt: Salmond may be the leader of the SNP, but he can no longer really speak for the huge, diverse and unruly Yes campaign
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Posted 10 years ago # -
Now things are getting serious!
Posted 10 years ago # -
Posted 10 years ago #
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@slowcoach, that forecast is out of date. Other 2015 election predictions are available:
http://electionsetc.com/2014/08/29/forecast-update-29-august-2014/
This one says hung parliament, with Tories 25 short of a majority. Minority Tory government anyone?
Posted 10 years ago # -
The prediction (of 61% chance of Labour majority) on Electoral Calculus was a month old based on polling average of almost 3% lead for Labour, but that's much the same lead as this week. I mentioned it as much for its historic data showing that in the run-up to Labour's win in 2005 the 2 main parties were in a similar position to this week's/month's polling average.
There are some convinced that there will be a big enough shift to prevent a Labour majority because the Tory Government managed it in 1992/1987, but it hasn't happened yet.Timezone debate: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28744490 - if we're seperate we wouldn't get a vote on rUK time zone, and we'd probably have to change ours if it changed theirs. Similar to sticking with the pound but not being able to decide the policy for it?
Posted 10 years ago # -
But it's my sunshine. My only sunshine.
Posted 10 years ago # -
@crowriver it would not be hard to find more open minded people than the loyalists or activists of labour or indeed any of the other main political parties. Indeed there are many open minded greens for example. I would just like to point out that being open minded does not make you right.
I moved well away from labour Before any crazy foreign wars. But when I went out on the doorsteps the first time I was asked who I was it all came flooding back. I can't help that I was dragged round doors as a small child when my mother was out campaigning for the fairly right of labour Norman Buchan (other interest - folk songs).
The referendum is most certainly not an election as you don't get to change your mind five years later.
Posted 10 years ago # -
In the interests of balance -
Posted 10 years ago #
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