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CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
White Paper (THE #indyref thread)
(2915 posts)- Started 11 years ago by Morningsider
- Latest reply from chdot
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Posted 10 years ago #
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In a speech ahead of the march, Grand Chaplain Henry Williamson said: “Brothers and sisters, in a world of instability, a world of insecurity, a world of nuclear proliferation, of radical Islam, people look to the UK as a land of hope, a land of peace, of success and unity and an example if what they so desperately long for - unity not stupidity, unity not division, unity not separation, unity not them and us.”
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http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-15-000-on-orange-march-1-3540764
Posted 10 years ago # -
The Orange Order can get tae, as far as I'm concerned.
Lovely day today though. Celebrated Pat Stanton's 70th birthday with a home win at Easter Road in the sunshine.
It's not just my politics that are green. ;-)
Posted 10 years ago # -
So, Survation's poll was by "phone using systematic random sample of landlines & mobs ordered to reflect age, gender, LA income, employment status"
Maybe they use the words differently from me but in the common usage (amongst people who do surveys) that simply isn't possible in a telephone survey.
Posted 10 years ago # -
I think it it's quite scary how one (rogue) poll can cause such a massive reaction. Surely the politicians on both sides should know by now how unreliable they are. I don't think these polls serve democracy very well.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Meanwhile in the (whole of the) UK -
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Labour stretches lead over Tories to eight points in latest poll
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Whether that means (maybe) Yessers (especially 'Labour voters') will go No remains to be seen (On Friday).
If this is correct it might be a restless night!
Go to bed early and set the alarm for 5??
Posted 10 years ago # -
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@MartynMcL: Opinium #indyref poll for the Observer is due at 8pm and Panelbase for the Sunday Times should be out at 9.30pm. There's a few others, too
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Curious and curiouser -
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ICM returns today to using the internet for its polling, this time for the Sunday Telegraph. Much of the interviewing for this latest poll in fact happened on the same days as that for the company’s poll in Saturday’s Guardian. However, this poll is a smaller exercise than those the company has been undertaking regularly during the course of the last twelve months for Scotsman Newspapers, and indeed has a smaller sample size (705) than is common in any poll. That smaller sample size means that it is more vulnerable to the possibility that its results deviate from the true picture as a result of chance.
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http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps
Posted 10 years ago # -
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@OpiniumResearch: Opinium/Observer #indyref poll: YES 47%, NO 53% http://t.co/zql8He3yAv http://t.co/Nh9PM6KCqb
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Posted 10 years ago # -
Scotsman @TheScotsman
Senior bankers have dismissed claims that independence could trigger a great depression as “preposterous” #indyref
http://bit.ly/1uAF8OsPosted 10 years ago # -
James Mackenzie @mrjamesmack
Enjoying Curtice's polling commentary. The man who assured Scotsman readers in 1999 that Green votes in the Lothians couldn't elect Robin.Posted 10 years ago # -
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@MSmithsonPB: ICM online #IndyRef poll has had no impact on betting. A £100 winning bet on Betfair produces
YES £400 profit
NO £24 profit"
Posted 10 years ago # -
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@BBCJamesCook: Latest pollsPanelbase Yes 49% No 51%
ICM Yes 54% No 46%
Survation Yes 46% No 54%
Opinium Yes 47% No 53%#indyref
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Posted 10 years ago # -
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Amy Brewer (@thuggo17)
13/09/2014 14:00
Hope the Orange Order are going to come back for all the litter they left on the Meadows... http://pic.twitter.com/tUqw2b5hoC"
Previously -
http://m.newsletter.co.uk/news/regional/sign-up-to-litter-campaign-order-urges-supporters-1-5044720
Posted 10 years ago # -
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@DanielDWilliam: survey of #indyref pollsters shows 49% certain their poll is right, 51% certain their poll is wrong & 10% yet to make up their mind.
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Posted 10 years ago # -
Amazing day yesterday, cyclists. Many of the voters I canvassed reported that the latest interventions by the corporations and the Labour party have pushed them into a Yes vote. As one antique dealer noted 'I was undecided until yesterday. I will not be bullied. I am voting Yes.'
My local linen-suited Labour party activists made their way up Walter Scott Avenue in a formation suggesting soldiers walking through an enemy village - I'm not absolutely certain that the second last one was walking backwards but the peoples' party were very ill at ease.
These are remarkable times.
Posted 10 years ago # -
IWRATS
Labour in Scotland is now stuffed either way. Their core vote has now been split, and many including me will struggle to vote red again.
FWIW, Walter Scott also home to a number of Edinburghs bolivian marching powder purveyors, so the linen suited ones perhaps right to be scared !
Dinner party last night, I was the only Yes, wife back to undecided (she will be back to yes before thursday) and four No voters.
We decided early on not to debate the indyref - probably a good thing in retrospect as I really value my friends and - being a democracy, everyone is entitled to their opinions etc.
Think there is a Yes rally in the Meadows at 2pm today.
Posted 10 years ago # -
My local linen-suited Labour party activists made their way up Walter Scott Avenue in a formation suggesting soldiers walking through an enemy village - I'm not absolutely certain that the second last one was walking backwards but the peoples' party were very ill at ease.
& yet somehow the vote is not going to be anything much more than a 50/50 split.Posted 10 years ago # -
The financial times is least spinning site for info, obviously they are pro business capitalism but their analysis is helpful to all
So to put for example the latest claim by IWRATS through the FT Filter
salmond saYs bullying won't work or alternatively
Business warnings fail to sway Yes voters
I can apply it to myself too as we are all spinning
From streets of Balerno - SNP hijack second stall at farmers market masquerading as green belt protestors upstaged by arrival of Ali D
Oops I will now operate the FT Filter
Chaotic No campaign halts narrowing of polls (see also IWRATS linen suited posse - better together numbers on the streets of south west Edinburgh certainly peaking in the last week - that is me trying to be more FT than spinning)
Posted 10 years ago # -
John Curtice says -
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Debates about risk in referendums are often thought to favour those arguing the case for maintaining the status quo. However today’s poll would appear to confirm a message that was also evident in YouGov’s poll for The Sunday Times last weekend, viz. that the one thing that few voters in Scotland are not seeking is to do is to maintain the status quo. Asked to choose between independence, more devolution and the status quo, only 16% back keeping things as they are. Thirty-five per cent support increased devolution and 42% independence. No less than 61% of No supporters now say they want increased devolution. Given the apparent widespread mood for change, the No side may need to continue to talk about the new opportunities afforded by their own proposals for more devolution as well as emphasise the alleged risks of independence – though in the absence of an agreed plan for more devolution that may be hard for it to do.
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http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/panelbase-yes-edge-just-little
In other words, if DevoSomethingabitmore had been on the ballot paper it would have won.
The fact that it isn't is mostly down to Westminster politicians - it's possible that opposition from 'SNP hardliners' would have meant that AS wouldn't have agreed to a third question.
So we are where we are. It seems the actual vote will be close. Whichever way it goes there will be disappointments, maybe some anger and resentment, but really the 'campaign' has revived an interest in 'politics' and shown that a lot of people don't really like the 'status quo' - not just in Scotland.
The whole process has changed things - even if there is a No vote by a bigger margin than the polls seem to suggest.
Maybe the UK (whether remaining as a single entity or not) will be become less Londoncentric. Some vested interests will have been highlighted.
People are concerned (understandably and rightly) about the Pound in their pocket and bank accounts - and the 'certainty' of its 'stability' - and the possibilities of having more to spend on goods and services and/or more taken in taxes.
Perhaps now there will be a greater understanding of the forces that shape such things and people's ability to resist or influence changes.
Posted 10 years ago # -
CHDot, correct. I hope that a No vote does not stop all the new people getting involved giving up activism. Even if No win 55/45 that is not a mandate for staus quo. If Devo max was on the ballot that would have won. No doubt. But there would then have been another push for independence.
Worryingly if Yes win by one vote then Alex salmond sees that as a mandate. I will now apply the FT filter
Possible that referendum result falls within standard error of measurement, either way
Posted 10 years ago # -
"Think there is a Yes rally in the Meadows at 2pm today."
Hope no litter is left!
Posted 10 years ago # -
"But there would then have been another push for independence."
To some extent that would have depended on how much DevoSomething would have won by.
"Even if No win 55/45 that is not a mandate for staus quo."
Yep, and -
If it's that 'close' the call for independence will remain live and be very much part of the imminent General Election.
Posted 10 years ago # -
@Nelly
The cocaine barons were on the other side of the Inch. I've knocked every door on the Walter Scott and whilst there are some quite crazy people there are no drug kingpins or indeed anyone remotely threatening. Perhaps my favourite resident was the charming legless metaphysician.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Indeed a Yes vote has no alternatives whereas a No vote has Devo max and further SNP campaigning for independence, influencing Westminster election but more influencing Holyrood the following year,
Posted 10 years ago # -
Charming leg less metaphysician I am hoping was inebriated rather than paraplegic?
Posted 10 years ago # -
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There can be no doubt that this referendum has changed Scotland. But it has not just changed Scotland; it will change Britain, because the thirst for democratic and economic change that has been heard from the people of Scotland will lead to change throughout Britain after 18 September."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/14/scotland-has-shown-change-whole-country
Posted 10 years ago # -
Some lovely details in the sidebars here
http://www.buzzfeed.com/tomphillips/the-siege-of-balamory#3wqff3u
Posted 10 years ago # -
"Indeed a Yes vote has no alternatives whereas a No vote has ... "
Almost sounds like you think people should vote Yes!!
Posted 10 years ago # -
@gembo
Double amputee I'm afraid. Insisted on showing me his stumps, and if he can live with them I can look at them. This has been, I'm sure you'll agree, a time of remarkable and unforgetable experiences.
A lady actually showed me the door yesterday. Physically showed me the door.
Posted 10 years ago #
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