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White Paper (THE #indyref thread)

(2915 posts)
  • Started 10 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from chdot
  • This topic is closed

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  1. gembo
    Member

    Financial times had an article yesterday on US reaction. Alan Greenspan Not favourable to a Yes seems unlikely to cause shift in yes voters but if there are any undecided reading? he sees no chance of a currency union or Bank of England underwriting separate Scotland.

    Various other talking heads from US also giving Analysis or if you prefer opinion on impact on EU, Russia and all sorts.

    Side bar article on Alex salmond (note it is only 75 per cent about Alex salmond) Gambler who plays the patriot game.

    I also liked Denise Minah on R4 this morning thoughtful analysis. Her No opinion/analysis to be balanced by Neal ascherson later. In my head that is a bit the wrong way round but why not I have always liked Denise whereas Neal seems quite right wing to me?????

    Posted 9 years ago #

  2. gibbo
    Member

    The problem - or, rather, one of the many problems - with this "vow" is that it's coming from 3 MPs.

    The problem being that there is around 650 MPs in parliament, so 3 is not a majority.

    What they're promising is that they can (and want to) deliver the votes of the majority of MPs.

    Yet I put myself in the shoes of an MP in middle England, whose constituents will be asking why Scotland is getting all these goodies, and why they - the English - should be treated as 2nd class citizens.

    And I don't see how, if I believed in putting my constituents first, I could support this act.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  3. gibbo
    Member

    Another problem with this "Vow" is the people who are making it...

    Cameron is on record saying the Barnett formula should be replaced. Boris Johnson, his likely replacement next summer, has described Barnett as, "a system of amazing political antiquity by which the English taxpayer sends about £20 billion every year to Scotland as a kind of present."

    Miliband has said he'll look into funding for Wales. If Wales gets more money, who is it coming from? Margaret Curran is anti-Barnett, and the Welsh first minister has said he expects scrapping Barnett would be in Labour's manifesto for next year's election.

    And Clegg's promises are, IMO, worthless. (Tuition fees.)

    So no matter what they "vow" - and I notice they're not saying anything about Barnett - I don't trust them with Scotland's future.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  4. chdot
    Admin

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11098573/Pranksters-set-up-fake-Scottish-border-passport-controls.html

    Posted 9 years ago #

  5. PS
    Member

    And I don't see how, if I believed in putting my constituents first, I could support this act.

    It's worth considering that in the context of negotiations after a Yes vote. It all points to the rUK driving a hard bargain because their negotiators will have a duty to get the best deal for the rUK.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  6. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @PS

    Absolutely. Both the rUK and iScotland will try to do the best for their citizens. I don't find that prospect too frightening though.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  7. chdot
    Admin

    "

    We all want the same thing: a better Scotland. And much of what has pushed us into this position is agreed by most voters: a frustration with Westminster and how politics operates. A desire for change.

    Newspaper leader columns in advance of elections and referendums are traditionally places where readers will be told the view of the paper. Several newspapers have pinned their colours firmly to one side or the other.

    However, the Evening News believes that our readers are perfectly capable of making up their own mind. Our role, as it has been throughout, is to focus on what a Yes or No vote would mean for Edinburgh and the Lothians. And to present the views of as wide a range of people as possible without any bias.

    We don’t always get it right. But you can be assured that we try to achieve balance in our coverage at all times.

    "

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/opinion/comment-whatever-the-result-we-must-stand-united-1-3542952

    Posted 9 years ago #

  8. chdot
    Admin

    "

    "People have the right to protest if they believe strongly about an issue, however protesters outside the BBC offices in Glasgow this weekend have demanded that journalists be sacked, for allegedly being biased in favour of the union. Journalists in Edinburgh and Aberdeen were abused over the weekend when simply turning up to report on events organised by both sides. Others were on the receiving end of a range of abuse and intolerance on social media, some of which has been logged and maybe reported to the police.

    "We have also experienced a number of Labour MPs, accusing the corporation's most experienced and talented journalists of political bias against the Better Together campaign. This highlights the fact that people on both sides are accusing the BBC of bias.

    "

    http://www.nuj.org.uk/news/nuj-calls-for-end-to-threats-and-intimidation-of-journalists

    Posted 9 years ago #

  9. chdot
    Admin

    "

    I have only ever been a member of one political party in Scotland – the Labour Party.

    ...

    Yet voting Yes does not mean working-class solidarity has to end – if anything it will embolden and strengthen the working-class both north and south of the border. The working-class have not had a representative party in government for over 30 years. Our working-classes and Trade Unions arefrustrated with New Labour, as it continues to subscribe to a neo-liberalism even Thatcher would be proud of.

    "

    http://politicaldeviants.net/?p=171

    Posted 9 years ago #

  10. chdot
    Admin

    "

    The SNP are "perpetrating a lie" about protecting the NHS with independence because Holyrood already has the power to keep the health service in public hands, former prime minister Gordon Brown has said.

    Mr Brown said the nationalists should make way for a Labour government in Scotland if they continue to insist they are "powerless" to protect the NHS without a Yes vote in the independence referendum.

    "

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2757208/Campaigners-enter-final-straight.html

    Posted 9 years ago #

  11. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Both sides in the Scottish independence referendum debate have seized on a pledge by the three main Westminster parties to devolve more powers.

    The pledge, signed by David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg, also promises equitable sharing of resources and preserving the Barnett funding formula.

    The "Yes" campaign described it as an "insult" to voters and asked why it had taken so long to offer.

    "Better Together" said it was "a vision around which Scotland can unite".

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29219212

    Posted 9 years ago #

  12. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    This is rather well put;

    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/09/13/the-purging-of-scottish-madness/

    and little understood within the financial services companies themselves.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  13. chdot
    Admin

    From link

    "

    Well I’ll tell you one thing – a mass scandal in systemic insider trading that scoops billions every day off the pension funds of the world, in which almost every major bank is complicit. Michael Lewis’s book Flashboys just lays it out, clear as crystal. Nobody cares though.

    ...

    No jobs will be lost.

    That is the leak. Look this in the eye. And think of this – good GOD. An independent Scotland would be a Scotland retaining it’s massive job-base in financial services, but freed of the danger of the toxic madness of modern banking in one day.

    In one day.

    That, in and of itself, regardless of anything else that has been said, is reason enough to vote Yes, alone.

    Think about it.

    Really do.

    Then vote.

    "

    Posted 9 years ago #

  14. Instography
    Member

    Always good to have a recruitment consultant's take on global finance.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  15. Morningsider
    Member

    IWRATS - very interesting article. What might it mean for Scotland if these was a formal currency union, the casino banks did "move south" and there was another financial crash?

    A genuine question - I've no idea of the answer.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  16. cb
    Member

    http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/ewan-morrison-yes-why-i-joined-yes-and-why-i-changed-to-no/

    Posted 9 years ago #

  17. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @Morningsider

    I have no idea. Realpolitik trumps law and regulation in the case of mass banking collapse. Lloyds didn't want to buy HBoS and the purchase would normally never have passed the Monopolies and Mergers Commission let alone the then FSA, but hey-ho through it went.

    In any case we'll find out soon enough. There has been no meaningful reform of the sector that I know of.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  18. crowriver
    Member

    @cb, a response to that link you posted:

    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/09/16/an-open-letter-to-ewan-morrison-from-a-mate/

    Posted 9 years ago #

  19. crowriver
    Member

    The wheels have come off the 'vow' bandwagon, it seems. That took, what, a couple of hours? Five minutes?

    If you thought we were going to finally get more powers and a protected budget after the 'vow' published today: think again. English MPs will never allow it.

    "David Cameron faces Tory 'bloodbath' over 'unfair' cash for Scotland
    Tory backbenchers vow to block 'on the hoof' promise to sustain higher Scottish funding"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11098825/David-Cameron-faces-Tory-bloodbath-over-unfair-cash-for-Scotland.html

    Posted 9 years ago #

  20. Instography
    Member

    The article confuses two things: the location of financial services employment and the relationship between an independent Scotland within the global financial system.

    If Scotland were in a currency union, with the Bank of England as lender of last resort then a financial crisis would be underwritten by a the Bank of England and the rUK government. Scotland would have a role in funding liquidity for the troubled banks. But Scotland would also enjoy the borrowing capacity and financial standing of Sterling.

    Outside a currency union, repudiating any UK debt, the Scottish Government would be released from any support for redomiciled insitutions. If the National Institute for Economic and Social Research is broadly correct it would gain that freedom at significant cost. (http://niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/Plan%20B_Final.pdf). So you take you choice.

    But the article is fundamentally illogical. If the banks redomicile and the jobs don't move (although it seems inevitable that at least some of them will) then if the next crash is as inevitable as our CV-polisher says it is then the effects will continue to be felt wherever the banks' jobs are located. The cuts that Kaputnik referred to earlier will also inevitably happen again. Here.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  21. Morningsider
    Member

    IWRATS - thanks. Given this uncertainty - I'm beginning to think this guy is being overly optimistic. If there is a formal currency union then Scotland might have to stump up serious cash towards any future UK bank bail out. Based on evidence of how the recent crisis in the Eurozone panned out.

    If there is no formal currency union and Scotland uses the pound informally, then any new round of quantitative easing could seriously destabilise the Scottish economy.

    Also, I think it would be better to tackle the root of the problem rather than palm it off on England. I have no wish to dump on the good people of that country.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  22. Min
    Member

    That was an interesting article CB. I also enjoyed the reply from the Yes guy, countering with the fact that the campaign has produced artwork. And indeed, songs. Stick that up ye Better Together.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  23. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @Morningsider

    The relationship between the banks and the states that host them undoubtedly transcends the question of Scottish independence.

    I don't think banks should have a state lender of last resort unless they are state owned. Private banks without such a lender tend to be very well run.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  24. Instography
    Member

    Having been a member of SWP in the mid- to late-80s, I don't recognise it as the happy-clappy debate-free zone Morrison describes. There were regular, vigorous, almost physical, debates over popular topics like Northern Ireland. And we produced books, although no artwork or songs. I can't say if that invalidates his experience of Yes groups, although I felt he overplayed the idea of them being like Scientologists.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  25. chdot
    Admin

    So many unknowns and contradictory offers/opinions.

    Just as well I've already voted.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  26. chdot
    Admin

    "

    SIR Sean Connery will not appear in Scotland to back the Yes campaign because of his tax exile status, the star’s brother has revealed.

    Speculation has been mounting about whether Connery, a passionate supporter of Scottish independence, would make a last-minute intervention.

    But his younger brother, Neil, speaking at his home in Edinburgh, appeared to dash any hopes among Yes supporters of the former Bond legend jetting in from the Bahamas.

    "

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-sean-connery-is-a-no-show-1-3543174

    Ho ho!

    Posted 9 years ago #

  27. chdot
    Admin

    Not indyref as such, but about the future of 'normal' banking -

    "

    Major U.S. banks are set to engage in an advertising dogfight — designed to sway consumers' choice of their default Apple Pay card — as they look to take advantage of the simple one-touch mobile payment flow found on Apple's next-generation iPhones to boost profits.

    "

    http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/09/16/apple-pay-sparks-inter-bank-battle-to-be-consumers-default-choice

    Posted 9 years ago #

  28. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Almost no one saw it coming. The surge in Scottish separatism over the past three weeks violates an elemental law of referendums: that there is a swing to the status quo during the last phase of the campaign.

    "

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100286510/why-the-swing-to-salmond-because-voters-are-attracted-by-optimism

    Posted 9 years ago #

  29. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @chdot

    I think Apple and Google will eat the retail banks shortly. @SRD will probably know more than any of us about African mobile phone based payment systems.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  30. chdot
    Admin

    "I think Apple and Google will eat the retail banks shortly"

    Maybe PayPal too (ambiguous response...)

    So we will be left with money lenders for mortgages and small business and - perhaps - the computerised/derivativised casino banks(?)

    Posted 9 years ago #

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