Do we know how many "undecided" there are?
I have no idea, but in polling this tight, is the expectation that many in this camp plump for status quo?
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
White Paper (THE #indyref thread)
(2915 posts)- Started 10 years ago by Morningsider
- Latest reply from chdot
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Posted 9 years ago #
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I'm still one http://cityexile.wordpress.com/2014/09/16/absolutely-positively-the-last-post-on-the-independence-referendum-i-promise/
Posted 9 years ago # -
Depends who you look at. Surprised to see ICM still on 14% but some of those will be refusals and some won't vote. Among those who say they are certain to vote, they split pretty evenly when pressed to say which way they're leaning. The undecideds, don't actually seem to be decisive. Who can get their supporters out will decide it.
Posted 9 years ago # -
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The status quo is no longer on offer – the choice is between the gamble of separation or an unprecedented transfer of powers to Scotland within the UK. But this plan for more powers is only the start of the change we need in exactly where power lies.
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http://andrewburns.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/change-is-coming-yes-or-no.html
Posted 9 years ago # -
This is an(other) interesting blog on opinion polls and the referendum:
http://blogs.ft.com/off-message/2014/09/14/why-a-yes-vote-would-confound-pollsters/
@insto, "Who can get their supporters out will decide it."
I agree. It will come down to voter mobilisation and motivation.
Posted 9 years ago # -
Anecdote corner again.
I was out leafleting this evening for Green Yes round the new Lochend butterfly developments. Before going there, I dropped off my daughter at Rainbows: as we walked up Easter Road we crossed paths with a group of smartly dressed No campaigners with big 'No Thanks' badges on, going the opposite way: about a dozen I'd say.
It was an odd sensation. It's literally the first time I've seen in person any No campaigners in numbers around my area of the city (unless you count the Orange march on Saturday, that finished at the top of Abbeymount). We have young kids, and we are around a lot, we're not away from our locality that much. First time ever seeing No campaigners in a group.
Shortly afterwards I was heading towards the Crawford Bridge with my leaflets, and came across them again, at the corner of Bothwell Street. They were gathered in a circle, portioning out canvassing areas as far as I could hear. Curiously, what appeared to be a television crew was recording what they were doing. That's the second time this past week the broadcasters and the No campaign have been on Bothwell Street: I recall seeing footage on Newsnight a few days back of Douglas Alexander crossing the Crawford Bridge of all places.
Anyway I carried on and did my leafleting. Residents that I met all seemed positive and friendly, save for one woman who emerged from her flat after I posted a leaflet through her letterbox. She approached me and thrust the leaflet forward, saying with a west coast twang "I don't want this thanks." I took it from her, replying "Okay, thank you." Judging by the defiantly angry look on her face, I guessed she was a No, or maybe just someone who is fed up of folk dropping leaflets through her door.
On my way back after completing my round, I came across the remaining, smaller group of No canvassers, heading to the area from where I had just come.
When I got home I saw on the news that Ed Milliband was in Edinburgh today. So I'm guessing the canvassers were Labour folk, but very smartly dressed compared to the local Labour activists I kept bumping into during the Holyrood and Council elections a few years ago.
I suppose this is the campaign entering the final stretch, and both sides trying to get the vote out, or persuade the remaining undecideds.
Interesting times.
Posted 9 years ago # -
Jonathon Shafi @Jonathon_Shafi
Poll of polls: 51 NO, 49 YES. On an 85 percent turnout that means the necessary swing for YES is 36,465 votes. Every. Vote. Counts. #YesPosted 9 years ago # -
That Tom Devine, historian, had an interesting wee sky tv interview. I'm always struck at the skill when people avoid the argument they're being urged to get stuck with and take the conversation wider.
Posted 9 years ago # -
My most ardent SNP, yes voting friend who we have had to avoid the subject with for about a year sent in his postal vote and it was No.
Nine postal Nos in oxgangs last night. No postal yes which was interesting in itself.
Plenty of yes posters. One no poster in block of six where all other five were yes, claiming she has had abuse from her neighbours.
Colleague told me story of how she saw some people at night carrying a Big No banner which she thought was good as meant the No side were working late until it dawned on her that they had taken it down and were running off in what does appear to be a tactic from some Yes groups as it is true that Every Vote Counts
Posted 9 years ago # -
"My most ardent SNP, yes voting friend who we have had to avoid the subject with for about a year sent in his postal vote and it was No"
Questions:
1. Why?
2. How do you know given you have been avoiding the subject?Posted 9 years ago # -
I had hoped (possibly like Sally) that by writing up my scattered thoughts I'd suddenly be able to decide how to vote. It didn't really work, but it's here:
http://www.darkerside.org/2014/09/thoughts-independence/
My four big thoughts are:
1) Everyone's a winner already because of increased political engagement.
2) Can I accept us leaving the global stage for a little while, particularly with issues I feel we should be addressing (Isis, Gaza, global warming, starvations, etc)
3) There's no improvement without risk. In everything, we either gamble, or stagnate.
4) How much is a local government worth? I can speak to my MSP, chat on Twitter, and I know his views and opinions. I'm blind to my MP.Posted 9 years ago # -
Fellow pedalistas,
I have loved this thread. It is by far the best discussion of our affair that I know of. I'm off out and won't be back before our fate is sealed. In any case our Bella Caledonia will get what she deserves.
My final thought, for the francophones amongst us and for the anglophones.
Aye yours,
IWRATS
Posted 9 years ago # -
@darkerside
On point 2 - I have tended to see it as adding another voice to he international stage. And I like what I've seen so far of our international positioning
On point 4 - this has very much influenced me. My Mp has really become pretty irrelevant. And I value the contact with my MSPs, and their diversity. The idea of electing one guy for Westminster again next year feels mostly irrelevant.
Posted 9 years ago # -
"2) Can I accept us leaving the global stage for a little while, particularly with issues I feel we should be addressing (Isis, Gaza, global warming, starvations, etc)"
I like the way you put "for a little while".
Yes or No, there will be some 'regrouping' of the UK/Scotland.
If Yes a chance to reconsider 'foreign policy' which (for the UK state/establishment) seems to (often) involve unwise wars - not least one on 'terrorism' - often at the behest of American interests.
Whether that is 'fighting the good fight' or 'trying to obscure the fact the UK is no longer really a world power' is of course a matter of opinion.
I'm sure an independent Scotland would not try to exaggerate its importance - at least in a military sense.
There is clearly a difference between "defence" and being involved in overseas adventures on the pretext that it's to stop the trouble 'reaching Europe' or 'our streets'...
Bizarrely (to me at least) International Rescue Corps is based in Grangemouth.
Perhaps iScotland would do a bit more of that sort of thing - as well as taking more interest in protecting (defending?) fisheries and energy installations.
Certainly I'm not convinced that your list "Isis, Gaza, global warming, starvations, etc" is being dealt with well under the current version of BetterTogetherness.
Posted 9 years ago # -
A very 'static' view of post Yes!
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The UK will remain united, an "armed forces alliance" will mean there is still a "British" army, an independent Scotland will share embassies worldwide with the rest of the UK and the Faslane base won't necessarily close to create a nuclear-free Scotland, because a future Holyrood government could vote to retain Trident. For Jim McColl, one of Scotland's richest men, there is little risk in Scotland voting to leave the union next week. "Things could be running the just the same as they are now," he says.
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Posted 9 years ago # -
If you don't know, vote No, then we could have another go at leaving later if it doesn't work out. If Yes wins and that doesn't work out as well as Salmond/Sheridan/Soutar/??? hope, it won't be nearly so easy to change back.
We could have been doing so much more good re climate change, poverty, Gaza, transport policy, if we hadn't been spending so much time with this.Posted 9 years ago # -
"We could have been doing so much more good re climate change, poverty, Gaza, transport policy, if we hadn't been spending so much time with this"
Sadly that is true, but I don't think it would have happened instead.
Transport policy north and south of the border is hardly progressive and certainly not a reason that people voted SNP in recent elections.
It might be argued that the SNP is much more interested in CC than any of the Westminster parties, but they are hardly coherent or consistent.
However they have managed to persuade a lot of people that 'better is possible - outside the Union'. Even with the help of the Greens (and others) it might still end in No.
So, 'a couple of years of lost time'?
Well it hasn't all been about indyref. PoP has emerged and made an impact. Now there are a LOT more people politically engaged - and not just wanting the label of "an independent Scotland'.
Even with a No, things have changed - (promises of) more powers etc.
Could still be Yes!
Either way plenty of scope for expecting/demanding more/different/better.
Posted 9 years ago # -
Surely if you don't know you shouldn't vote?
I think the labour slogan you quote "if you don't know, vote no" is seriously condescending.
I used to be a labour member and recently ended up on one of their mailing lists again, but the mail out this morning, with that message led me to unsubscribe from all their mailings.
Posted 9 years ago # -
Good morning all.
Last day of the campaign. Last round of leafleting for me, then back to some attempt at real life before the vote. I am working the day of the referendum, on an early train so won't be able to vote in the morning, my preferred option. Instead I'll join what we have been promised will be queues of folk at the polling station in the early evening.
For me, as you will all know by now, the vote will be Yes.
A No vote would be such a regressive step in the development of Scotland's politics that I don't know how anyone can bring themselves to vote that way. As for getting another chance, I simply don't believe that will happen, not for another generation at least. Maybe not even in my lifetime.
It's decision time tomorrow. We only get this one opportunity to make lasting change. The crumbs offered as an alternative will change nothing. For those still undecided, think about whether you want change or not. If you want change, then vote Yes.
Posted 9 years ago # -
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@Edinburgh_CC: Check out our info sheet on how your #indyref vote will be kept secure and be accounted for tomorrow: http://t.co/5x3Em1u0uZ
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Posted 9 years ago # -
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Tens of thousands of activists from both sides of the Scottish independence referendum campaign will take to the streets on Thursday in the largest and most intensely coordinated get-out-the-vote operation the country has ever seen.
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/scottish-independence-activists-voters-referendum
Posted 9 years ago # -
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Scottish Labour and “Better Together” have clearly decided to go out all guns blazing with their pitiable last-ditch desperation slogan “If you don’t know, vote No”. Blair McDougall faithfully recited it on “Good Morning Scotland”, and the leaflet on the left-hand side of the image below was going through people’s doors last night.
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Posted 9 years ago # -
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Visitors to London’s New Year’s Eve fireworks celebrations are to be charged for the first time, Mayor Boris Johnson announced today.
The decision to issue tickets for the traditionally free event has sparked criticism, with City Hall opposition leaders calling it “a scandal”.But the mayor insisted the huge numbers attending had made the event “untenable” and ticketing was essential to slash crowd numbers.
Revellers will be charged £10 to attend, with only 100,000 tickets being made available to the public after around half a million attended last year.
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London catching up with Edinburgh ('s Hogmanay).
Posted 9 years ago # -
Remember to use a pen.
Posted 9 years ago # -
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EIGHT Edinburgh pubs have gained late licences to allow punters to watch the indyref results coming in.
Bars including the Phoenix on Broughton Street and Kilderkin, close to the Scottish Parliament on Canongate, have secured 4am licences. “We are expecting a lot of tired and thirsty customers,” one barman was reported as saying.
Just one bar, the Radical Road on Willowbrae Road, has secured a 5am licence as the Evening News previously revealed. The SNP Club, meanwhile, has also been successful is securing a later licence. There have been no similar applications in Glasgow, Dundee or Aberdeen.
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Posted 9 years ago # -
Dropping back up to my point 2; the "little while" partly relates to a hope that eventually the UN security council will become less like an old boys' club from the Cold War.
If it stays as is (with the current veto mechanism), then Scotland would never have the same global voice as the UK.
It's also a given (unless we become hugely generous) that we'd have a smaller aid budget to dish out, and a much reduced ability to help out other countries with manpower and equipment.
Posted 9 years ago # -
cb - brilliant! I love the idea of special branch officers hidden in the back of the vans that transport the ballot boxes to the count frantically rubbing out "yes" votes and crossing "no" instead.
I'll be on the look out for any Terry Thomas types carrying enormous erasers.
Posted 9 years ago # -
"and a much reduced ability to help out other countries with manpower and equipment"
But as you say -
"a hope that eventually the UN security council will become less like an old boys' club from the Cold War"
It would perhaps be good if the UN was able to expect/direct resources better - 'peacekeeping' and 'humanitarian'.
Posted 9 years ago # -
@chdot, that slogan seems to contradict Lord Reid of Balgowan, who just a couple of days ago said "If you don't know, don't vote." Utterly outrageous, and surely illegal to discourage folk from voting?
Anyway, someone mentioned Gaza:
"Palestinian bagpipers back Scottish independence"
http://news.yahoo.com/palestinian-bagpipers-back-scottish-independence-061124942.html
Posted 9 years ago # -
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Andrew Picken (@andrewpicken1)
17/09/2014 10:31
Strong rebuttal from Scottish Police Federation on #indyref "disorder""
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In response to increased press reports and comment implying increased crime and disorder as a consequence of the Independence Referendum Brian Docherty, Chairman of the Scottish Police Federation said;“The Police Service of Scotland and the men and women who work in it should not be used as a political football at any time and especially so in these last few hours of the referendum campaign.
As I have previously stated the referendum debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good natured.
"
http://www.spf.org.uk/2014/09/spf-media-release-independence-referendum-2
Posted 9 years ago #
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