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Cyclist Casualties 2013

(26 posts)
  • Started 9 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from Instography

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  1. Morningsider
    Member

    Transport Scotland has just published its Reported Road Casualties 2013 publication, see:

    http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/system/files/documents/statistics/RRCS_final13.pdf

    2013 was a terrible year for cyclist casualties, particularly fatalities. 13 cyclists died on Scotland's roads (figures for previous years were - 2009 - 5, 2010 and 2011 - 7 and 2012 - 9). 2013 was the worst year for cyclist fatalities since 2003 (14).

    There was no real reduction in serious or minor cyclist injuries - there has been no clear reduction in cyclist injuries over the past 10 years, although this year's figures are actually worse than those for 2003.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  2. Min
    Member

    I have lost count but this year does seem to be pretty bad.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  3. minus six
    Member

    Its grim reading, yet the exec summary does all it possibly can to paint a rosy picture for the media's headline selection.

    What it should say is that road deaths are up right across the board, except for pedestrians, and could that possibly be because no one dares to walk the public highway any more?

    We live in barbaric times

    Posted 9 years ago #
  4. Morningsider
    Member

    bax - don't read the Transport Scotland press release then, it'll make your blood boil.

    http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/news/ten-cent-fall-casualties-scotland%E2%80%99s-roads

    It uses the term casualties, which combines fatalities, serious and minor injuries, to show a 3% fall in total cyclist "casulaties". While this is factually accurate - it hides a huge leap in cyclist fatalities and fails to mention that "minor" cyclist injuries are known to be seriously under-reported.

    It also fails to mention that the total cyclist casualty figures are actually 10% higher in 2013 than in 2003.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  5. Instography
    Member

    It would be nice, at least, if they could stop calling them 'accidents'.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  6. amir
    Member

    "We live in barbaric times "

    +1

    Posted 9 years ago #
  7. Ed1
    Member

    In respect to cyclist deaths because dealing in small numbers may just be randomness, bumpiness ( would get smoothed by larger numbers) like if flipping one coin compared to flipping a 1000 etc.)

    In theory could try moving the year changing the period if changed the years by every day possible to see to see if would smooth out this peak. Changing the accounting period, to give smoothest the least changes per period.

    This may be a trend an increase in deaths or partly a trend. Even if this is a trend an increase may be more people are cycling or may be more people are taking up cycling. In theory even if the total number of cyclists cycle miles was falling, but the number of new people taking up cyclists was rising, could end up with higher deaths with lowering rates that would be not be related to increasing dangerous conditions of the road them selves or other road uses, in theory those could hold constant and deaths could increase.

    With out more information not sure can draw a lot about the relative dangers increasing from this. I have just glanced at it, but would wonder if increase rate of cycling or new cyclist increased would wonder about cycling rates etc as the Netherlands has more cycling deaths than Scotland but is still much safer. Cycle deaths per miles useful comparison would expect cycle deaths to increase with increasing cycling just at a lower rate than the increase.

    Unless cycling rate constant not sure if year on year, and because small numbers bumpiness.

    The "devils advocate" view in part sometimes bad new is just bad news may be.

    Of course irrespective of the realties of the report can be quoted to press for increase cycle funds or lanes etc so may be just academic to question to much.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  8. Morningsider
    Member

    Ed1 - the available statistics (from Scottish Transport Statistics and Scottish Household Survey (SHS) travel diary) show that the number of cycle trips taken annually by Scottish residents has not really increased over the past 10 years. However, the total distance cycled has increased over the last few years. It would seem to show that current cyclists are cycling more. Obviously, there are areas (principally Edinburgh) where there are more cyclists.

    Annual cyclist fatalities have been on an upward trend since 2009, long enough not just to be a blip I would argue. The increase in cycling (or new cyclists) is far smaller than the increase in fatalities.

    This is significant given that all other modes of transport have seen major reductions in fatalities and injuries over the last 10 years, while the number of vehicles and distances travelled have increased.

    I know the cycling statistics are limited due to SHS sample sizes. However, I am convinced that something is going on here that is more significant than fluctuations in annual statistics.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  9. Ed1
    Member

    Well I suppose could that cars and buses have experience technological changes that have improved active and passive safety etc. So would expect rates to drop quicker than cyclists.

    Although active safety may reduce accidents for all road users such as anti lock breaks stability control, passive safety air bags safety cages cars designed to crumple only benefit the occupant in the large part.

    May be some of these safety aids have an adverse effect on other road users as they miss align incentives between driver safety and other road users.

    For example if you can survive a head on crash then may drive faster than would even if the person or car or bike you hit still has the same risk to death.

    People may drive faster or more careless when their own risk was more aligned to others may be.

    May be greater car numbers has caused the death rate to rise more for cyclists as the increase car safety has meant a lower change in car rate deaths even with more cars I don’t know.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  10. Roibeard
    Member

    The risk transfer of safety features is well established - for example the mandatory wearing of seat belts coincided with an increase in pedestrian casualties even as the occupant casualty rates dropped. [Citation required, but since it's CCE, expect one along in a moment!]

    Robert

    Posted 9 years ago #
  11. Morningsider
    Member

    Ed1 - yes, there are some good technical reasons why fatalities for car occupants have decreased - principally improved car design. Also, the Government (UK, Scottish - all political shades) have invested massively in improving the safety of the trunk road network (dualling, barriers, speed cameras) and local authorities have improved local road safety (traffic calming, 20mph).

    I suppose the point I'm making is that such investment in cyclist (and pedestrian) safety would also see a reduction in casualties. If the authorities were serious about encouraging cycling then this would be a priority - rather than hare-brained schemes such dualling the A96 at a cost of £3,000,000,000.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  12. chdot
    Admin

  13. minus six
    Member

    There's 115 mentions of the word speed in the document.

    Much talk therein of speed limits, but rarely mentioning illegal speeding.

    Page 59 is a useful example.

    Cycling casualties are detailed for roads with various speed limits, yet you would imagine from the boundaries of the information presented that somehow there is something inherent in the road infrastructure that prevents road users from being able to breach the associated speed limit - there's certainly no indication whatsoever that any motorist might be capable of routinely doing so.

    The road itself is blithely described as "faster" rather than the traffic using it.

    From p68 onward, "excessive speed" is mentioned twice and "exceeding speed limit" is mentioned five times. There's no emphasis placed on this as constituting serious criminal activity; the flowery description of "injudicious action" obscures the criminal severity if it.

    p72 eventually describes "exceeding speed limit" as contributing to 15% of road fatalities.

    Dunno who adjudicates on the accuracy of those statistics (presumably not the same team that seek to obscure the fatalities increase in the exec summary), but to me that sounds like a very low figure, indeed.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  14. sallyhinch
    Member

    According to my records there have been seven deaths this year, so slightly less grim than 2013. I may have missed some reports though

    Feb 18 George Fairley B800 Kirkliston to South Queensferry http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-26242085

    Mar 20 Sheila Hyslop, Albert Road Dumfries http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/popular-member-dumfries-musical-theatre-3260735

    April 16 Grant Gourlay. A926 Angus http://www.eveningtelegraph.co.uk/news/local/cyclist-killed-in-angus-horror-smash-1.322019?fdafndafnda

    June 6 Heather Ross, Bridge Street St Andrews http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/fife/tributes-to-scientist-who-died-in-st-andrews-cycling-tragedy-1.412700

    Sept 6 Anna Roots, A836 Bettyhill http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-29118934

    Sept 7 Neil Jaffrey North Anderson Drive, Aberdeen http://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/local/family-pays-tribute-to-cyclist-killed-in-aberdeen-crash-1.566708

    Sept 12 Sally Preece, A85, near Killin http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-29202534

    Posted 9 years ago #
  15. sallyhinch
    Member

    Just realised, that's more women than men this year. Presumably just a statistical fluke though

    Posted 9 years ago #
  16. Instography
    Member

    Lots of A and B roads. Small towns. Yet the campaigning seems to focus on cities.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  17. Morningsider
    Member

    bax - the UK Statistics Authority are responsible for the accuracy of most official statistics:

    http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/

    Posted 9 years ago #
  18. minus six
    Member

    "Fall in deaths and injuries on Scottish roads"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29721072

    there was a 3% fall in cyclist casualties

    Commenting on the figures Ch Supt Iain Murray, head of road policing, said: "Today's figures are encouraging"

    Posted 9 years ago #
  19. Ed1
    Member

    In respect to road safety may be big changes from technology will be relatively soon, the self driving cars etc but also monitoring of driving.

    From what I understand young drivers can have a device fitted in their cars that monitors their driving to reduce insurance premiums. Although possibly not very libertarian, not that we worry about authoritarian government in others ways in respect to security, road traffic kills and injury more than murder, domestic terrorism (may be because “intrusions”) etc, if all cars were monitored may be bad driving would be much reduced as people could get a ticket or at least pay more insurance as a result of inconsequential bad driving.

    May be patterns of driving could show someone likely to crash in to cyclist or pedestrian before they crash.

    Can’t see that being a vote winner currently but in time, libertarian arguments were also used when CCTV, or smoking bans, or internet monitoring first became considered. People rarely concern themselves with such things now.

    After a period of vehicle monitoring, people would forget used to be able to drive how liked, I would guess.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  20. stiltskin
    Member

    I always think these sort of figures are interesting when it comes to the question about is cycling 'safe' compared to other forms of transport. The pedestrian/cyclist/ car figures for fatalities is 38/13/89 ie 3 times as many on foot die & nearly 7 times as many car users. Now you can play about with statistics all day, but from my perspective, even in Edinburgh, you see far more cars and pedestrians than you do cyclists. Outside Edinburgh the proportions are even greater. Being honest, I have no idea what figure I'd put on it but overall, the casualty rate for cycling seems much higher proportionally compared to the other two modes of transport. Perhaps it might be interesting to do a count one say, but I'd be hugely surprised if I only saw three times as many people on foot compared to on a bike. Hence I conclude that , yes, cycling is more dangerous and it just isn't widespread misconception that this is so. Sadly.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  21. sallyhinch
    Member

    @Instography - what makes you say that? Obviously POP demonstrates in Edinburgh because that's where the parliament is, but has made a point of talking about rural roads and the manifesto covers rural speed limits as well as 20mph limits in town. Obviously GoBike and Spokes are going to campaign in cities because that's where they are based but there are smaller campaigns in the Highlands (and Dumfries too). There are practical difficulties with organising rural cycle campaigns (although the CTC have showcased some effective distributed county-based campaigns down south) and it's hard for them to have the same impact as a big city campaign but we're trying...

    (edited to add: Scotland could definitely do with more regional campaigns outside the big two though. Compared with England there seem to be very few local cycle campaigns although that may be changing)

    Posted 9 years ago #
  22. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @stiltskin

    Never forget that cyclists' mortality is lower than non-cyclists' mortality, all other things being equal.

    It is dangerous not to cycle, but strokes and suicide aren't splashed on Page 1 as 'Failure to Cycle Accidents'.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  23. Ed1
    Member

    Lots of A and B roads. Small towns. Yet the campaigning seems to focus on cities. “

    May also be that cycling in cities can have greater utilitarian advantages, cycling can be quicker or easier than the using a car or public transport on more occasions than in rural areas possibly.

    In rural areas even allowing for lower density there may be fewer advantages in respect to transport solution. I like to cycle from a mile outside Balerno , where I live to the city centre, Leith and Morningside. It is over 10 miles to Leith, I have a car but choose to cycle, can’t really see this type of journey ever being particular popular by bike. Yet around the town the bike is quicker and easier than alternative transport solutions.
    A lot of journeys are short ones that a bike compares well too.

    One day I noticed a large truck behind me on a rural single carriage way road I use, I wondered how this would impact my carbon, how many trucks would I need to slow down from 50mph to 10mph before I was actually have a greater carbon footprint than taking my car. The extra carbon created by slowing down trucks (that then use more energy to get back to speed) traffic on some roads could result in larger carbon foot print than using the most efficient vehicle I suppose. Although more of academic exercise as I ride my bike because I like to.

    There is greater opportunity in the cities for reduced vehicle use.
    City cycling also has more advantages in respect to externalizes local pollution etc, rather than climate change, local air pollutions in cites kills more people and has a bigger detraction in quality of life. Although carbon may the same effect on climate change where ever produced in the city you also have more local issues breathing etc.

    There is the concept of “effective speed” that may make rural bike more useful that would first appear. Effective speed considers the time taken to work to pay for the vehicle then lowers the speed by taking total miles travelled by the divided by the cost which can makes bike look more attractive. Although as many people on effectively fixed incomes work 40 hours a week etc could not change to 38 etc, then not quite sure if this effective speed will feature particularly highly in decision making, just the opportunity cost of other use of the money,(money has declining marginal utility, as does time, but provided basic needs meet money utility may decline more quickly than time money is less fixed than time with economic growth effective speeds can shift over actual speed, why more people may utility cycle in develping counrties) also many people drive cars that cost more than the minimum utility cost so a utility argument would only be valid to the utility part of cost possibly.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  24. firedfromthecircus
    Member

    I understand where and why the discussion of statistics is required, but I have to say right now it is leaving me cold.

    The bear fact is in 2013 THIRTEEN people in Scotland went out for a bike ride and did not come back.

    THIRTEEN brothers, sisters, mums and dads.

    FFS. This really is barbaric!

    Posted 9 years ago #
  25. Ed1
    Member

    1. “THIRTEEN brothers, sisters, mums and dads.”

    I see what you mean, it’s the emotive arguments rather statistics that will make people concerned. Like when someone dies of smoking, the best anti smoking material will personalise bob smoke 30 a day and had 2 kids pictures of bob the distress it caused etc.

    The same with cycling 13 is just a number, could be 130 people don’t context the numbers. You could say 13 people got killed on bike or 130 and would get the same reaction from someone. Yet if said bob and went on to explain bobs life etc then more impact. So yes the personalizing etc actual people not numbers important to remember etc.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  26. Instography
    Member

    "@Instography - what makes you say that?"

    It just seemed obvious. Wasn't meant to be a criticism of any campaigning that is done. Just an observation of what seems like a mismatch between the concentration and focus of campaigning, which seems to be around cities (and around the middle class areas of cities, naturally, since that's where the cyclists tend to live) and where people are being killed.

    It's a function of where activists live - in London, in Edinburgh but less so, it seems, in Birmingham and Glasgow. And less so still in small towns and villages connected to larger towns by A and B roads that force cyclists to join cars and lorries moving at 60mph rather an average of 10mph.

    And of course, the funding, or lack of, is a reflection of all those people not dying at once either in big train crashes (like Ladbroke Grove) or in tragedies like the Herald of Free Enterprise or the Marchioness where causes can be identified as system and process failures, linked to excessive pursuit of profit or corporate laxity or indifference, that are relatively easily, if expensively, rectified. They don't fit into aspects of individual behaviour that are already populated by outsiders and attract opprobrium unlike, say, ecstasy or legal highs or handguns or air rifles which hardly ever (sometimes never) kill anyone yet attract legislation and enforcement (for all its inadequacies).

    Cyclists each die individually, in individual "accidents", hit by individual vehicles at a particular place, each with their own specific causes. Nothing connects these people. And no one (other than some sad or angry activists) wants to connect them. Just as hardly anyone wants to connect all the people who die because they don't cycle (or otherwise engage in enough physical activity). To connect would be to admit to a problem than politicians certainly don't really want to deal with. Who would connect them and still do nothing? As long as they can be kept as private tragedies they lie beyond the scope of public policy.

    And yet the mismatch matters more because it highlights how disjointed and incoherent the various local campaigns are and helps to explain why, in spite of local successes (for what they are) cycling seems relatively easy for politicians to ignore.

    Posted 9 years ago #

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