CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!

Do we need a GE2015 thread?

(619 posts)

No tags yet.


1…171819…21

  1. gembo
    Member

    @iwrats, indeed I have only ever over played a hand. I have heard that you can achieve success by under playing? Larkin for instance in your link was a distinct under player. Not cheery though.

    Murphy should go. Dug dale can run it. In 2016 the list system should help the other parties score more than one seat?

    @SRD you would have to know someone who was at the count at the moment to get breakdown from wards. I am told by someone I know who was at the count that Balerno was labour by 3 votes. I can't confirm that but if true, the local land owning dynasty who own and used to run the place voted labour.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  2. chdot
    Admin

    "

    EDINBURGH’S large non-Scottish population, above-average salary levels and nervous financial sector make the city an unlikely SNP stronghold.

    "

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-brings-seismic-shift-to-edinburgh-politics-1-3768235

    Posted 9 years ago #

  3. weezee
    Member

    "Nicola Sturgeon meets new team of SNP MPs..."
    We were passing over the rail bridge just before this event en route to Aberdour(would recommend soup at the castle) and I remember looking down and seeing a milling crowd with some in hi-viz and thinking "Ooh,is that a cycling thing going on?"

    Posted 9 years ago #

  4. Nelly
    Member

    I am still in a state of shock about a Tory majority.

    The country has played right into Cameron (or Boris, god help us) hands.

    Although happy with the overall result up here, it really didn't work out nationally.

    A long 5 years ahead with lots of austerity (unless you own proprty in London, are wealthy, or are a non dom tax dodger)!

    Posted 9 years ago #

  5. SRD
    Moderator

    ha! I won the office election sweepstakes. Missed the UK result by a mile, but got turnout and Scottish results.

    Given that a good number of the other entrants are pretty well-known figures on TV and radio as pundits, I'm chuffed.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  6. gembo
    Member

    This figure has been rounded up but is semi accurate and doing the rounds on Facebook Twitter etc

    For every 100,000 votes cast for the successful party MP, labour obtained 2 MPs, Tories obtained 3 MPs and SNP obtained 4 MPs.

    Partly because the approx 750,000 votes cast for labour in Scotland got them one MP. Partly that most labour votes in England were for successful labour MPs (they won few marginals and then from libdems like in Cambridge).

    Same stats are also going around looking at how many votes on average each winning MP received. Again the SNP MPs on average received the lowest number of votes - 25 000. I think this is because the SNP pattern was the same in 56 seats they received average of 50 per cent each time (that doesn't quite work with the figures and was more like 40 odd percent in Edinburgh and 60 percent in Glasgow?) In the past labour achieved roughly similar domination. (Obviously a bit lower) with a lower share of the vote but once you get up to 45 per cent you win a landslide, as John Curtice has pointed out. This is the advantage of FPTP and this is the first time any party but labour or Tory has benefited from this system. As has been discussed here and elsewhere PR would bring in UKIP. It would still give SNP a narrow majority of Scottish MPs (maybe31) which would have seemed remarkable a few years ago.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  7. chdot
    Admin

    Just in

    "

    Survation. (@Survation) is now following you on Twitter!

    "

    !!

    Posted 9 years ago #

  8. chdot
    Admin

    Well that worked for them.

    Just looked at their Twitter

    "

    @Survation: NEW POLL: Survation/MoS Headline Voting Intention: CON 40%; LAB 31%; UKIP 12%; LD 6%; SNP 5%; GREEN 3%; OTHER 2% http://t.co/abHPffI5mx

    "

    Apparently post election

    Don't suppose CON will be wanting to move away from FPTP...

    Posted 9 years ago #

  9. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Election 2015: Who are the 56 new SNP MPs?

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32579722

    Posted 9 years ago #

  10. gembo
    Member

    Sir John Curtice has set up an independent inquiry into why the polls were so wrong. The survation one the post election seems more accurate? Murphy still not gone?

    Posted 9 years ago #

  11. wee folding bike
    Member

    Rev Stu on Wings reckons the polls were fine, the interpretation was wrong.

    Jim thinks he should stay because there is only a year to the next election and they can't afford to have a leadership election now. Outwith Jim's feelings of self preservation he might have a point. Neither option is great.

    They could just let Kezia step up but that might not work so well either.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  12. gembo
    Member

    @weefolddin - what is revstu's point? You can't say you don't know in an exit poll (only lie that you did not vote Tory?) whereas the neck and neck polls had lots of don't knows?

    I think Jim Murphy has to go he is not elected to either parliament.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  13. chdot
    Admin

    "Outwith Jim's feelings of self preservation he might have a point."

    Yes but, the point you seem to point out is that his first concern was himself.

    If that's what you meant, I have to agree!

    It might be the case that there is no-one 'better', but I think the idea that after another 12 months it'll all be 'sorted' is fanciful.

    On balance I think I would like to see something like the Labour Party - 'social justice without needing to have full independence'.

    Could attract previous Lab & LD voters, no doubt some who voted SNP this time and probably some Tory voters.

    But the last person who could pull that off is Jim. I don't think anyone is likely to want to try starting a brand new party in Scotland.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  14. wee folding bike
    Member

    Rev Stu says that the poll numbers had long predicted a Tory win.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-polls-were-not-wrong/

    Jim claims that he had to be in a parliament at the time he got the leader job but doesn't have to stay in parliament. It's a bit pharisaical but he might have the rules on his side. Whether that will be enough remains to be seen. Iain Davidson didn't waste anytime getting the boot in.

    I'm 99% sure the main thing on Jim's mind is his self preservation society. I'm not sure who is up for the gig. It's unlikely to win friends and influence people at this point so whoever gets it will be the Scottish version of William Hague, Michael Howard or IDS in that they will pick up the blame for failing in an impossible task.

    Perhaps they could get someone like Malcolm Chisholm. He is well regarded by all sides but might not be bothered about the long term career implications of running aground in '16.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  15. gembo
    Member

    Hmm, standard error of measurement on plus or minus three per cent but adding three per cent to Tories and taking three per cent off labour is the most extreme version of SEM? Tho technically yes, still within it. Ashcroft seen as biased when in fact he was more accurate?

    Liked the shy Tory name. Quite mild for revstu's site, tho not coined by him. I prefer to call it lying bar stewards

    Posted 9 years ago #

  16. chdot
    Admin

    Meanwhile in England -

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/10/miliband-made-terrible-mistake-in-ditching-new-labour-says-mandelson

    "

    Labour 'back to 1980s' after election loss - Mandelson

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32680280

    Posted 9 years ago #

  17. Min
    Member

    Perhaps they could get someone like Malcolm Chisholm. He is well regarded by all sides but might not be bothered about the long term career implications of running aground in '16.

    He is retiring at the next Holyrood election so no point.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  18. wee folding bike
    Member

    I thought he might but wouldn't that make him the ideal person to take over in the short term as he has nothing to lose?

    Were I a career minded Labour MSP or the MP I wouldn't want the leader gig right now.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  19. Min
    Member

    Heh, maybe but JM doesn't exactly have anything to lose any more either! It would be a shame to see Malcolm Chisholm go out as the latest Labour failure since I don't think there is really anything anyone can do in the next year to turn the party fortunes around.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  20. gembo
    Member

    Might remove the thugs with the megaphones, which both sides would prefer. You're a liar Mr Murphy etc.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  21. LaidBack
    Member

    Ian Bell does another excellent essay in today's Sunday Herald.

    It didn't take long to turn a world upside down.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  22. gembo
    Member

    He has certainly been churning out the article.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  23. gembo
    Member

    Paul Chuckle also refusing to stand down from the Chuckle Party

    Posted 9 years ago #

  24. le_soigneur
    Member

    I read Ian Bell's article, I thought it was far too strident (and I say that from the same side of the divide as him).
    The resounding win for the Tories overall, and for the SNP in Scotland is just a peculiarity of the voting system.
    He would have been better off arguing for PR. Weird that GB introduced PR to most of its ex-colonies in treaties of independence but is the last to adopt it, itself!

    Posted 9 years ago #

  25. SRD
    Moderator

    "Weird that GB introduced PR to most of its ex-colonies in treaties of independence but is the last to adopt it, itself!"

    Which ones are you thinking of? I would argue that many of the problems of African states are directed linked to FPTP electoral systems generating 'winner-takes-all' politics.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  26. LaidBack
    Member

    For stridence and arrogance you can't beat posh Dave though!

    He's already been phoning round European leaders to collect his congratulations and check how they can fit in with the UK's referendum.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  27. le_soigneur
    Member

    Ireland (even NI before gerrymandering), Malta for lower houses. But also NZ, Australia, India, USA etc for other legislatures. Unfortunately the colonial attitude to Africa would have been that one-man-one-vote was too sophisticated and only whites should have been allowed vote.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  28. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Labour, with its one MP in Scotland, now has worse prospects than the Tories in Scotland, but a weak pulse can still be detected. What happens between now and next May’s Holyrood elections will determine whether it can live independently of a life-support machine. The Scottish Tories, though largely harmless, can still lead a twilight existence, comfortable in the knowledge that there is no other right-wing party to spoil the fun in their walled garden.

    Not so Scottish Labour. Their territory has been annexed by the SNP and the electorate has decided that, for the time being, social justice, fairness and equality sound better from the mouths of the SNP than from Labour.

    Jim Murphy, the stricken Scottish leader, must resign immediately. He holds neither a seat at Westminster nor at Holyrood and he has presided over the most humiliating defeat suffered by any political party since 1832.

    His attempts to blame his predecessor Johann Lamont, the woman he himself ambushed last year, are tawdry. His deputy, Kezia Dugdale, though raw and inexperienced, has nonetheless held her own at Holyrood and ought to be given the opportunity to lead.

    "

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/10/scottish-labour-jim-murphy-resign

    Posted 9 years ago #

  29. cb
    Member

    "Rev Stu says that the poll numbers had long predicted a Tory win"

    I wonder why he didn't make that point until after the election result.

    Posted 9 years ago #

  30. Firedog
    Member

    cb He's been fairly consistent in predicting a Labour loss. He thought Labour would lose back in 2012 and was also saying last year how David Cameron and George Osborne would be feeling 'very confident indeed of a second term in office' even when official polling said otherwise.

    Posted 9 years ago #

RSS feed for this topic

1…171819…21

Reply »

You must log in to post.


Video embedded using Easy Video Embed plugin