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Do we need a GE2015 thread?

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  1. LaidBack
    Member

    PS - Your right of course.... The original post did come from someone with a Yes icon on their Facebook profile! But it's good to find out what other people think.

    With these stats it could be said that the SNP 'over achieved'. Whatever the reason the electorate decided that electing more Scottish Labour MPs (or other parties) wouldn't be in their interests at this stage.

    I imagine though that the SNP and Labour will find themselves agreeing about many things in Westminster.
    Such as not replacing the European Human Right Act with a British Bill of Rights.
    Scotland should be able to keep the EHRA here (Some Unionists will say that is not fair on their right to have UK law uniform - despite the fact it never has been ). Labour and Liberal MPs will agree with SNP. So we will have a 58 out of 59 defending the right to keep the act here.

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/a-few-weeks-to-save-the-human-rights-act/

    Posted 8 years ago #

  2. chdot
    Admin

    From link

    "

    We still don’t have all the details of what this would involve, but we do know it would stop the European Court of Human Rights from making binding judgments on UK cases. It is also believed the Tories will try to stop human rights from applying to all but “the most serious” cases brought before the British courts.

    "

    Except that *it seems* that some of the existing devo legislation means that Holyrood would have to agree.

    Would Dave dare to have an 'England only' version?

    Posted 8 years ago #

  3. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Let's not forget the immense confusion also caused by simultaneous council/parliamentary elections, especially when long pieces of paper are involved.

    I believe a commission found Douglas Alexander at fault for that, in Scotland anyway, and he's currently not in a position to make such erroneous decisions again.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  4. gembo
    Member

    Yesterday I had a head wind heading east into Edinburgh, quite cold. But I can cope as down hill and if it blows that way all day I get helped back up the hill. But the wind changed direction and blew gently and more warmly from the west. I found this very odd as having had several weeks of this head wind in both morning and evening commute I wrote to Nicola Sturgeon to ask her to sort the wind direction . I asked if it could just blow from the east as a preference but if she felt it was easier giving prevailing direction I could accept solely from the west. Given her powers I did not see this as an unreasonable request.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  5. chdot
    Admin

    "

    But, like Lord Forsyth, the Unionist in me cannot but be concerned at the outcome. To have the SNP achieving 50% of the popular vote in Scotland, and 56 out of 59 seats, represents an unprecedented nationalist surge. The newly appointed Secretary of State for Scotland, David Mundell, will need to have all his wits about him in order to try and handle this difficult situation. And he will have to do it without a single backbench ally from a Scottish constituency.

    Lord Forsyth has backed Labour’s pre-election proposal for a constitutional convention. In this he echoes similar views expressed by another eminent Scottish Tory, Sir Malcolm Rifkind. The piecemeal delivery of additional powers to Scotland has not provided any long term stability to the UK constitution, and surely it is time to look at the issue in a more rounded way.

    And that includes looking at providing fairness to England, as well as to the devolved nations. The appointment of Greg Clark as Secretary of State at the Department of Communities and Local Government is the clearest signal yet that David Cameron is serious about decentralisation. Mr Clark is an enthusiast for administrative devolution within England, I would expect to see many more powers being passed down to city regions, and possibly even historic counties.

    "

    http://www.thinkscotland.org/thinkpolitics/articles.html?read_full=12822

    Posted 8 years ago #

  6. kaputnik
    Moderator

    David Mundell, will need to have all his wits about him in order to try and handle this difficult situation. And he will have to do it without a single backbench ally from a Scottish constituency.

    Who needs backbench allies when you can have an unelected deputy minister with "introducing the poll tax" on his CV?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32738638

    In other news, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32742516
    Unite boss McCluskey blames Tory win on Scottish Labour

    Clearly Len hasn't yet done the maths on how many seats Ed won and how many seats he could have potentially won (and didn't) in Scotland and worked it out for hismelf that Labour didn't lose the election in Scotland, it was the Conservatives that won it in England and Wales . Jim Murphy could have pulled off the unbelievable, won 56 seats (or 59!) in Scotland and still Cameron would have got into No. 10.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  7. chdot
    Admin

    "Clearly Len hasn't yet done the maths on how many seats Ed won and how many seats he could have potentially won (and didn't)"

    There's a lot of that going on.

    "it was the Conservatives that won it in England and Wales"

    - with suggestions that the scare stories about being 'wagged by the SNP tail' had some effect.

    Looks like Labour lost large amounts of its 'core vote' to both Tory and UKIP.

    In Scotland it went mostly to the SNP - allowing lazy/ignorant commentators to equate the SNP with UKIP!

    Posted 8 years ago #

  8. chdot
    Admin

    Meanwhile 'back at home' (no it's not Jim)

    "

    In fact, one sentiment we can all share across this chamber is that pride in our democratic process where people don’t just stand up for their beliefs but make the case for them in town halls, on doorsteps, in cafés and workplaces.

    And then the people decide.

    And they decided to send a team of SNP MPs to Westminster. I wish each and everyone one of them well.

    The First Minister referenced human rights protections. Can I assure her that these benches will do everything we can to oppose any attempt the Tories make to scrap the Human Rights Act.

    "

    http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/blog/entry/kezias-response-to-nicola-sturgeons-general-election-statement

    Posted 8 years ago #

  9. kaputnik
    Moderator

    In Scotland it went mostly to the SNP

    I wonder how much of the Tory and LibDem vote went to Labour in an ultimately fruitless attempt at tactical voting; clearly LD vote collapsed and had to go somewhere (unless they abstained?!). Some may/will have gone to SNP, but the Tory vote more or less held overall, but was down quite a bit in some seats where you might expect them to do well - Edinburgh West being an example, where I assume there was tactical voting to try prop up Mike Crockhart.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  10. chdot
    Admin

    "

    DAVID Cameron was in Edinburgh today to meet First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and pledge to press ahead with new powers for Holyrood in the Queen’s Speech.

    Ms Sturgeon was set to tell the Prime Minister that after last week’s election of 56 SNP MPs, there was widespread demand in Scotland for “substantial” extra control to be transferred, going beyond the measures proposed by the cross-party Smith Commission.

    But Mr Cameron insisted the package based on the Smith proposals would mean “an unprecedented rise in the 
powers of the Scottish Parliament” and make Holyrood “one of the most powerful devolved parliaments in the world”.

    The UK government said the visit, eight days after the election, underlined his commitment to “renewing and refreshing the United Kingdom” and the importance he placed on the “respect agenda”.

    "

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/nicola-sturgeon-to-push-pm-on-new-powers-1-3773943

    Posted 8 years ago #

  11. chdot
    Admin

    All smiles

    "

    BBC Scotland News (@BBCScotlandNews)
    15/05/2015 10:39
    Scene inside Bute House: new Scot Sec David Mundell sits next to Mr Cameron. Dep FM John Swinney next to Ms Sturgeon.

    http://pic.twitter.com/Wec1sfel8o

    "

    Posted 8 years ago #

  12. gembo
    Member

    Nicola Sturgeon has written back to me to say that wind direction is not a devolved matter but she is going to include it in her negotiations.

    Labour increased their vote in England (by a small percentage point). Could be that this was done by attracting disaffected liberals whilst they lost core vote to UKIP? Similarly, Tories may have attracted votes from other parties whilst losing to UKIP? Who can tell?

    Posted 8 years ago #

  13. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    So, here we are. The electoral dust has settled and the most senior politician in Scotland is David Mundell, the gent who previously described the post of Secretary of State for Scotland as 'above my pay grade'. He will be ably assisted by Andrew Dunlop, who will become a lifetime member of parliament by appointment of the MP for Witney. Here is Mr (soon to be Lord) Dunlop's CV, which I think repays a brief inspection;

    Experience
    Special Adviser
    Prime Minister's Office
    February 2012 – Present (3 years 4 months)London, United Kingdom
    Councillor
    Horsham District Council
    2011 – 2013 (2 years)
    Executive Chairman
    Interel Consulting UK
    January 2011 – December 2011 (1 year)
    Managing Director
    Interel Consulting UK
    February 2008 – January 2011 (3 years)London, United Kingdom
    Managing Director
    Politics International
    September 1991 – February 2008 (16 years 6 months)
    Special Adviser
    Prime Minister's Office
    1988 – 1990 (2 years)London, United Kingdom
    Special Adviser
    UK Ministry of Defence
    1986 – 1988 (2 years)London, United Kingdom
    Head of the Political Unit
    Conservative Research Department
    1984 – 1986 (2 years)London, United Kingdom
    Head of Research
    Scottish Conservative Party
    1982 – 1984 (2 years)Edinburgh, United Kingdom
    Graduate Trainee
    Midland Bank International
    1981 – 1982 (1 year)London, United Kingdom & Bristol
    Organizations
    Atlantis Swimming Club
    Chairman
    Sussex Seahawks Swim Team
    Chairman
    Amateur Swimming Association, South East Region
    Management Board

    Now I'm a chippy splittist, but does anyone else detect a calculated insult in this appointment? If this isn't 'elect as many incomprehensible teenage girls and Marxist fishwives as you like but we'll always be in charge' made flesh then I don't know what is.

    From South East Region Management Board to Her Majesty's Government.....what a lengthy and what a short trajectory.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  14. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Head of Research
    Scottish Conservative Party
    1982 – 1984 (2 years)Edinburgh, United Kingdom

    "

    That'll do!

    Posted 8 years ago #

  15. gembo
    Member

    Thatcher adviser end of.

    Oh wait proponent of poll tax.

    Born Helensburgh.

    Michael Forsyth starts to sound better option?

    Wonder who they could have picked without causing fury?

    Posted 8 years ago #

  16. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @gembo

    Kim Jong Salmond?

    Posted 8 years ago #

  17. chdot
    Admin

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/ian-murray-on-life-as-scotland-s-only-labour-mp-1-3774847

    Posted 8 years ago #

  18. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Douglas Fraser (@BBCDouglasF)
    16/05/2015 14:15
    Labour's @JimForScotland standing down as @scottishlabour leader in a month: hasn't explained his reasons clearly: @kdugdalemsp to stand in

    "

    "

    He said he had decided to stand down ahead of the national executive voting by 17-14 in favour of him staying in the job.

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32760196

    Posted 8 years ago #

  19. weezee
    Member

    This chimed with me. Would be interested to hear opinions here.
    https://stevetopple.wordpress.com/2015/05/13/so-listen-to-me-well-labour-party-because-if-you-get-this-wrong-again-you-will-be-done-for-once-and-for-all/

    Posted 8 years ago #

  20. gembo
    Member

    The article and comments after it are thought provoking (prompting me to consider the long view as really still just a Lot of opinion but little established facts.)

    in 2015 Even if labour won all the seats in Scotland the Tories would still have a majority. Labour marginally increased their vote in rest of Uk but obviously collapsed in Scotland where the SNP appealed to traditionally labour voters. But except with the obvious pressure on the union Scotland could be considered irrelevant? I mean to the wider picture of how the Labour Party gets elected. This is the main thrust of the person called Annette's advice (though she is a green voter in central Scotland).

    Bear with me whilst I assemble my potted history.Labour won a general election for the first time after World War Two when the UK population voted for change. In power briefly then long period of Tory rule (Scotland still voting for Tories in large numbers at this time). Labour do not win again until 1960s when Wilson is able tap into a modernity vibe. Again didn't last long. Unions still have some clout so early seventies era of changing governments and indeed the LibLab pact. Which did not have the same devastating effect on the libs as their recent coalition. (Scotland votes for devolution but not in sufficient numbers). 1979 Thatcher. Scotland starts to react in an equal and opposite direction. People in England in 1979 like thatcher at first but she is quickly not that popular until the Falkland war. This cements her leadership and fifteen years later Labour in rest of Uk go with Tony Blair. The scots still quite like old labour. Labour in power for their longest ever spell but do not redistribute (bit like SNP administration in Scotland since 2007). So looks like labour in rest of UK will ignore Annette and go back to Blair? Scotland won't like that but we have SNP projecting themselves as Old labour (though they seem more like new labour? In their policies, my opinion.).

    Tories might have trouble from within like in 1992? Cameron clearly feels he has a mandate on 36per cent but Nicola scooped 50per cent. Interesting times. Late night ramblings.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  21. chdot
    Admin

    Sorry, can't compete with Gembo's historical treatise.

    I obviously skimmed too much and missed the 'central Scotland Green voter' bit.

    This is what I was writing in parallel with Mr G.

    Didn't read all, but think this is the core bit -

    "

    So listen to me well, Labour Party, because if you get this wrong again you will be done for, once and for all: Don’t try to appeal to Tory voters. Tory-leaning voters might vote Labour as a one-off protest vote, but by pandering to them you alienate the people who are your natural clientele. For a few years that might work out, but eventually the Tory-leaning voters will return to the Tory fold and your own supporters will decide you’re just not worth it anymore. If they have any sense, they’ll move on to the Greens, and if not, there’s always UKIP. If they feel seriously conflicted, they might just stay at home and not vote at all. In Scotland, they have serious alternative now. In any case, you’re unlikely to gain back their trust as long as you present yourself as a paler copy of the Tories. Nicola Sturgeon did give you the heads-up in the leadership debate. She said that of course there is a difference between Tories and Labour, but the problem is that the difference is not big enough. It is nowhere near big enough.

    "

    I assume because of "In Scotland, they have serious alternative now" the piece is predominantly about 'UK Labour'.

    So, 5 years to sort something out and/or hope the voters get bored with/disappointed by the Tories.

    In Scotland things are a bit more complicated.

    The whole left/right thing is harder to define - not least because there is a whole extra party (and it's no longer a small one).

    There is the extra extra complication that there is a significant election in less than 12 months.

    After 5 years the voters hadn't 'forgiven' the LibDems for reneging on the 'tuition fees pledge' (apparently). Wot chance of 'forgetting about' Better Together?

    The best electoral prospect for Labour is for the SNP/Tories (delete as applicable) to mess up/get boring. That's unlikely to happen too comprehensively in the next 12 months.

    The best way forward for Labour (particularly in Scotland) is to keep a low public profile - except at Holyrood where they need to be an effective opposition. Behind the scenes work on the next manifesto, and include policies the party believes in - not just ones it imagines people will vote for.

    There are no 'Labour voters to be won back'.

    I don't think they understand that.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  22. gembo
    Member

    The woman Annette wrote the letter which was on labourhame as a response to an article by Richard baker ex-MSP which was I think a piece about separation being a bad idea in times of trouble.

    She joins the comments at the bottom of the piece if you scroll down far enough and at one point she says - if you do not believe that every country should be able to govern itself you must be an imperialist.

    So as with many things there is much drift within the original letter and indeed comments afterwards. The original piece was intended to be about how labour could be re-elected (as I read it). Jist - by being more like old labour. In England Milly Ed portrayed as dangerous leftie, in Scotland he is soft Islington red Tory scum (according to the rent a mob).

    Labour very used to being a party of opposition. Slightly wrong footed by being in opposition to themselves in Scotland. I presume they can pick up a few more seats than one at Holyrood with the lists? Lib dems aiming for more than one too and indeed Tories, greens hoping for something and foxy. so SNP will retain and increase their majority but there will hopefully be some opposition external to the SNP? SNP also have to decide whether to push for another referendum despite the clear result of that. I imagine they will. It is their Raison d'être.

    Radio 4 did an interesting piece from a pub in rutherglen on Saturday morning with ex-MP Tom Greatorex. Sample small but nice case study. At one point someone at the bar fluffed their lines by ordering a large lager. Nerves at being on the radio? So a couple of ex-labour who voted SNP. One who remained loyal to labour. One who was a bus driver who voted UKIP because lot of passengers were benefit scrounges from abroad. (Seriously). Then a heart warming vignette where a customer asked Tom Greatorex with genuine care and sympathy - what are you doing now son? Tom G said alas he was busy making his staff redundant and then he would be looking for a job.

    Back on the comments after Annette's article I was struck by a commenter saying I'm not guilty about voting SNP. This was odd as I couldn't see anyone suggesting he should feel guilty. We live in a democracy and people can vote for who they like (though none of the above would pick up a fair few votes if an option I am sure, perhaps more so in England?).

    Not sure how many of the now unemployed Labour and a lib Dem MPs were hard working local politicians like Greatorex, Murray, Lazarovicz etc and how many were more remote Westminster coves like A Darling, D Alexanders etc.??The idea that you could still vote labour or lib dem for a hard working local labour / lib demMP certainly fell on deaf ears. The idea that Scottish labour MPs were distant from grass roots clearly accepted as fact?

    There would seem to be something in parts of the Scottish psyche that can be cussed, not just scots of course, you see this determination in Yorkshire etc. (see also the Celtic myth of difference also mentioned by Annette maybe again in comments but not borne out by DNA). Contrast this with the Scottish enlightenment where the quality of thinking combined with our own ideas of imperialist expansion and we founded various institutions in London eg Bank of England, royal society etc. set up periodicals published in Edinburgh but intended to have UK circulation (black woods, Edinburgh review), ran the British empire etc.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  23. chdot
    Admin

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/if-i-were-prime-minister-i-would-hasten-the-process-of-devolution-to-the-major-city-regions-10080650.html

    Posted 8 years ago #

  24. chdot
    Admin

    "

    And the apparent desire by most of the UK leadership candidates to return to a New Labour, Blairite agenda is worrying. Mr Miliband worked hard to move the party away from the toxic legacy of the Blair-Brown bickering and the Iraq war and focus on Labour’s true values – 
tackling inequality, fighting poverty and promoting a strong society.

    Going back to the era when Peter Mandelson said he was “intensely relaxed about people becoming filthy rich” seems a bad idea.

    And a return to New Labour would certainly do nothing to help the party in Scotland. Here, Labour is fighting for survival against a party which has effectively supplanted it as the 
primary political presence.

    "

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/opinion/ian-swanson-blairite-path-a-death-wish-for-labour-1-3777966

    Posted 8 years ago #

  25. chdot
    Admin

    "

    The SNP will chair two House of Commons select committees at Westminster, it has been announced.

    Nationalist MPs will take control of the UK Parliament's energy and climate change select committee and Scottish affairs select committee.

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32843295

    Posted 8 years ago #

  26. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Remeber that 3rd-hand memo that somehow made it's way into the press from the Scotland Office and "proved" that Nicola Sturgeon wanted Cameron to remain as Prime Minister? Turns out "Honest Al" Carmichael himself, late Scottish Secretary, was behind it.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32849065

    Shame it only (and for him very conveniently) came our after he narrowly held his seat.

    The Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Haywood... ...also said there was no evidence of any political motivation or "dirty tricks."

    Forgive me Sir Humphrey, but what other possible motivation could there have been but a political one?!

    Posted 8 years ago #

  27. wee folding bike
    Member

    And, as luck would have it, the announcement came out on the Friday of a holiday weekend.

    Whodathunkit?

    Posted 8 years ago #

  28. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @kaputnik

    The problem was caused by a 'loss in translation'. Between doric and lallands presumably.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  29. kaputnik
    Moderator

    And "Honest Al", being from Islay, could understand neither!

    Posted 8 years ago #

  30. chdot
    Admin

    "

    “It is inconceivable that a parliamentary committee could issue a penalty in a case of this gravity of less than 10 days’ suspension. Therefore a byelection will inevitably be triggered.”

    "

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/23/alistair-carmichael-liberal-democrats-byelection-threat-leak-snp-sturgeon?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Posted 8 years ago #

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