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Do we need a GE2015 thread?

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  1. SRD
    Moderator

    I'm seriously tempted to vote SNP, but have heard nothing from/about our candidate (he has also failed to respond to my #votebike communication.)

    Finally got a newsletter through today and it is very underwhelming. Very cryptic in reference to his career 'in Spain' and now 'with the third sector' . Only other thing they seem able to say is that he's been 'working with Jim Eadie'.

    No sense of what drives him, past political engagement, how he has engaged with local neighbourhood.

    Suppose that helps me narrow down to incumbent labour or Greens.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  2. gembo
    Member

    @bdellar

    I can give you a scenario as follows

    SAy there are 650 seats (ignore the Sinn Fein not coming to westminster just for roundness of number, I am sure they can be factored in but I have taken them out)

    Say instead of ten SNP at westminster there are 50, as someone's seem to suggest.

    Say Tories get 290 seats and labour get 251

    That leaves 59 seats for greens, lib dems, plaid Cymru, UKIP, DUP, UUP and SDLP (and Sinn fein)

    Queenie then invites party with largest number of seats to try to form a government.

    Tories hook up with DUP, UUP, lib dems, UKIP or whatever and form the govt.

    But say the SNP. Just got their more normal ten or so westminster sets and say labour got the other 40 then they have 291 and Queenie invites them to have a go with greens, lib dems, SDLP, plaid Cymru and SNP

    This is the sort of thing I mean by arithmetically possible.

    This is a long way from vote SNP get tory. That is a line of rhetoric but it is a possibility arithmetically?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  3. chdot
    Admin

    "But say the SNP. Just got their more normal ten or so"

    Right

    So it's about Labour Voters not doing what they are meant to.

    I dealt with that here.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  4. gembo
    Member

    Yes that is who Jimbo is trying to talk to, despite CHdot having dealt with it. :-) Jimbo doesn't see it like that.

    One endgame appears to be that Labour in Scotland need to get as big a doing as the Tories? I don't know if this is a black and white thing in Scottish society or not. Then CHdot is predicting a Tory revival? So maybe once the SNP are shown to have the same feet of clay as everyone else and split back into left and right divisions at some future date the Labour Party will revive in Scotland?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  5. chdot
    Admin

    "Yes that is who Jimbo is trying to talk to"

    Seems so, I thought you were agreeing with his line/tactic(?)

    "Labour in Scotland need to get as big a doing as the Tories"

    There are definately people who think like that (tribal?) - no idea if it's most people/voters.

    "CHdot is predicting a Tory revival"

    It's already happened - there's more than one Tory MSP - that's because of PR. Like it or not, some people want to vote Conservative. It's not that long since Labour was happy to call the SNP "Tartan Tories".

    That is much less true than it was even at the last WM election. There will now be people who no longer feel comfortable voting SNP. Some may 'revert' in 2016 - and more thereafter. In addition RuthD is attracting new/different sorts of people/voters. So those factors will (almost certainly) lead to more votes/seats - even without the SNP being 'found out' and/or not as 'radical' as some people imagine/hope - of course the evidence is already there, but they are getting the benefit of the doubt as a means to getting a 'better UK'.

    Of course that may be complete fantasy on the part of the SNP hierarchy, members and (intending) voters. The simple truth is that (Scottish) Labour isn't really offering a (credible) alternative/'narrative'.

    SLab is reacting in a similar way to the Tories shifting policies as a result of UKIP. Though that's not an entirely fair comparison - SLab is 'adopting' policies that it should already have 'owned'.

    In general SLab moved right and the SNP more 'left' - both are composite/coalition parties, so it's hardly surprising that 'ordinary' voters are 'switching' - for now, or maybe for ever.

    At UK level there has been a two-party system almost for ever. The Liberals had tried offering a 'middle-way' alternative but FPTP basically made success there impossible. The SDP-LibDem developments changed things - a bit. But the electoral system resulted in a lot of 'that lot has had it's turn so let's give the others a go'.

    Last time that 'failed' and the UK got a coalition. It was nearly a Lab/LD one. Whether the (relative) success of coalitions at Holyrood changed voters'/politicians' ways of thinking is not certain.

    It is possible that the LD's fate would have been VERY different without the tuition fees promise - or if they had got Cameron to agree (whether it was a good pledge/policy is beside the point). Now there is an election where the Tories talk about 're-electing us' - as though there has been a Tory Gov for 5 years - which there would have been IF they had won!

    The LDs whine that 'it would have been worse without us'. Probably true, but...

    In Scotland voters have another option - and know it. The IndyRef made people *think* and, seemingly, 'more interested in politics'.

    "split back into left and right divisions at some future date the Labour Party will revive in Scotland?"

    SNP splits have been predicted for ever. 'Must' happen one day, but SLab will be dead by then unless it learns from this election and does something different.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  6. gembo
    Member

    I am not agreeing with his line. I am disagreeing that it is all tosh or not a possibility as I feel it is a possibility. I am disagreeing with it being used so often and as if it is the only option. But I am saying that people should not dismiss such possibilities just because Jimbo brings them up. He can't always be wrong? Thus people should not dismiss one potential consequence of their voting preference. Caveat voter. Not voting labour may result in a loose SNP Labour coalition but then again it may result in a Tory led coalition?

    ChDot appears to me to be simultaneously predicting the revival of Tories and the death of labour. What have the Tories done differently? Have they rather endured until elections which are not FPTP, which is ironic. Next year will labour get any list MSPs? They haven't been in power for five or eight years westminster / Holyrood and yet they must still get a kicking.?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  7. bdellar
    Member

    Gembo, it's the incumbent that gets to try and form a government, NOT the largest party.

    If the Tories and their allies can form a majority, then it doesn't matter if the other MPs are Labour, SNP or Monster Raving Loony party.

    In your scenario, there are 301 SNP and Labour MPs. It very much matters how many of the rest go to Green or Plaid, since they would also vote against a Tory Queen's Speech. If they form a majority, then the Tories can't form a government.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  8. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @SRD

    I know the candidate in question, and told his people that his bio was shocking weeks ago. I've passed your words to them as anonymous feedback.

    I did try to write a parody bio that was worse than the real one beginning 'X has yet to be convicted of any serious crimes and strongly denies ever having been a member of the Armed Avengers of Saint George'.

    Would you like me to tell him to go and see you?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  9. chdot
    Admin

    "ChDot appears to me to be simultaneously predicting the revival of Tories and the death of labour."

    You seem to be trying to make that sound both binary and impossible!

    As I have explained, there has been a revival (because of Holyrood) and will probably be (in a voter/seat sense) a bit more. I can *imagine* (this is all speculation after all) 2 or 3 Tory MPs next time (not 20 or 30!)

    This will be partly due to the merits/attractions of the TParty - and also due to 'set backs' in/for SLab.

    My general point is that irrespective of the reasons for SLab's current 'difficulties', there will not be a bounce/return to 'normal' after the coming election because people/voters say 'we thought you needed a wake-up-call/lesson and now we promise to be Labour Voters in future'.

    Either SLab will re-invent itself (not easy) or there will emerge a new leftish of centrish party (not easy). Whether that is pro-Independence or pro-Trident (neither/both/other) remains to be seen.

    Whether any of that can happen before May 2016 is a different question - which I am not willing to speculate on before the election (and may not be interested enough to care about afterwards!)

    Posted 9 years ago #
  10. gembo
    Member

    @bdellar, brown was incumbent the last time, did he try? Suppose the lib dems went back and forth?

    I would stick with my totally hypothetical prediction that in my hypothetical scenario 1 the Tories would be the lead party in a coalition and in my second totally hypothetical scenario it would be labour. I am happy with your potential third hypothetical scenario of a conservative coalition. However, I still think I have given a hypothetical scenario where surge in SNP voting leads to a hypothetical coalition led by Tories going to a queens speech when without the SNP surge it would be labour led. All a long way from vote SNP get Tory but not impossible?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  11. chdot
    Admin

    "it's the incumbent that gets to try and form a government, NOT the largest party"

    That is true and so much simpler than all the words and flowcharts that have been used to counter Jim's misunderstanding/propaganda/lie.

    If only interviewers could be so concise!

    Posted 9 years ago #
  12. chdot
    Admin

    "brown was incumbent the last time, did he try?"

    YES

    Next question?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  13. bdellar
    Member

    Gembo, you have not provided a scenario at all. The largest party thing doesn't exist. The largest party has no special rights or anything like that, and doesn't have any extra right to form a government.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  14. chdot
    Admin

    'in my hypothetical scenario' (N+1)

    The Labour Voters were just messing with the pollsters, in addition the current tactical voting initiative works big time and SLab has as many MPs as before.

    Jim becomes Prime Minister.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  15. bdellar
    Member

    Last election, Brown, as the incumbent, tried to form a coalition. Even though Labour weren't the biggest party. But it would have been very complicated, and only had a slight majority. The Lib Dems went for the Tories instead.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  16. wee folding bike
    Member

    But the word on the street was that part of the LibDem price was ditching Mr Brown.

    Mr Murphy is even on record and saying that Mr Brown had the right and responsibility to attempt formation of a government.

    He would also have had to do a deal with Mr Salmond and this was the same Mr Brown who didn't even get on the phone and say congratulations after the 2011 election.

    They might have been happy to take a break and let the Tories pick up the damage on austerity. Mr Darling would have done much the same as Mr Osborne.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  17. Morningsider
    Member

    Anyone who wants chapter and verse on UK Government formation might want to peruse pages 13 to 15 of "The Cabinet Manual":

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf

    Posted 9 years ago #
  18. chdot
    Admin

    "

    But the SNP are expected to get at the very least 45 seats. They're currently polling at 49% of the total vote. The last party to be this popular was the Conservatives in 1955 when they reached 50.1%.

    "

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/ampp3d/brace-yourselves-sturgeon-surge-5478228

    Times change.

    I would be a bit surprised if the SNP do get as many as 45 seats - though it would be an entertainingly symbolic number!

    My 'projected revival' of the Tories doesn't extent to 49% - ever!

    Posted 9 years ago #
  19. gembo
    Member

    Bdellar as I said way upstream I wasn't going to be able to explain it to you as you have already decided. Maybe we need some computer modelling? Are you saying it is not arithmetically possible?

    So to return to my hypothetical non- scenario

    The first non scenario has the incumbent party able to form a coalition with labour second but not able to do so, the second scenario gives labour a vey slight edge over the incumbent party and this swings their lib dem buddies to swap allegiances and prevents the incumbent party from cobbling together a coalition. Now these lib dem's in my non scenario are very moral and refused to negotiate with labour unless they were the largest party. But in my non scenario it is the forty more seats labour pick up in SCOTLAND that allows them to attempt the coalition. Clearly, the other parties in the coalition are also a factor and we are even further away from vote SNP get Tory?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  20. bdellar
    Member

    Gembo, ah I see. You think the Lib Dems would ONLY work with the largest party. I don't agree (they held talks with Gordon Brown in 2010) but I see your argument now. Thanks.

    So it's not that "the largest party gets to form a government", but "the Lib Dems will only work with the largest party to help form a government".

    Posted 9 years ago #
  21. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    The Peat Worrier is always good value.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  22. bdellar
    Member

    If you want to see a great example of smaller parties NOT working with the largest party, you can't do much better than the Irish election in 1948:

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_general_election,_1948

    Posted 9 years ago #
  23. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Though I do wonder if the Splittists refusing to deal with the Empire Loyalists is wise. There is probably a Machiavelian deal to be done there.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  24. Baldcyclist
    Member

    Labour pledging to peel money off the special wallpaper today.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32279977

    Posted 9 years ago #
  25. kaputnik
    Moderator

    From the above link, Leader Ed Miliband will rule out a "shopping list of spending policies" and promise a Labour government would cut the deficit every year. The Conservatives would go on a "reckless spending spree", he will say.

    I'm now thoroughly confused. Is Ed promising to out-conservative the Conservatives? Spend less than them and cut the deficit more? It's a bit like the current pass-the-parcel rhetoric of the Tories claiming Labour will lead to economic chaos, to which Labour responds that the SNP will lead to economic chaos, to which the SNP respond that the Tories will lead to economic chaos.

    Or... the Conservative election campaign is fabulously clever (with Grant Shapps involved, it probably isn't) and has cleverly outmaneuvered the Two Eds Milliballs into a position where they have to pretend to be the Tories in order to appear to Joe Tabloid that they are economically competent?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  26. Morningsider
    Member

    Labour manifesto:

    http://www.labouremail.org.uk/files/uploads/bfd62952-9c4f-3394-3d41-cf94592816d2.pdf

    Cycling does get a couple of mentions, although that only applies to England - as it is a responsibility of the Sottish Government.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  27. Cyclingmollie
    Member

    I'm now thoroughly confused.

    Everything is going according to plan then.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  28. slowcoach
    Member

    Kaputnik - to add to the confusion the BBC article that Baldcyclist linked to doesn't now include the Tories promises of a "reckless spending spree". Maybe it was 'reckless promises of a spending spree' that was being attacked. ie Labour is saying they will spend more on services and where the extra taxes will come from. The Tories have now promised to boost spending on NHS but are just hoping to find some money somewhere.

    Morningsider, thanks for link to manifesto. Lots of mentions of climate change and need for action - maybe cycling will be included in that. (no mentions of cars, drivers or motorists)

    Posted 9 years ago #
  29. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Changed times, the kettle is now calling the pot black;

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/davidson-the-lib-dems-are-finishd-in-scotland-alistair-carmichael-will-be.1428930715

    The Liberal Democrats are "finished" in Scotland with Alistair Carmichael likely to be the "last man standing" after the General Election, according to the Scottish Conservative leader [who is not standing for election].

    Posted 9 years ago #
  30. PS
    Member

    Or... the Conservative election campaign is fabulously clever (with Grant Shapps involved, it probably isn't)

    I'm frequently astonished to hear Shapps and Osbourne being described as political tactical geniuses when all they seem to be doing is appealing to a proportion of the 30% rump of folk who would more than likely be voting Conservative anyway. I always thought that the way to win an election was to appeal to people who might be thinking of voting for someone else.

    Labour have kind of attempted that approach - saying that they will be fiscally prudent in an effort to appeal to folk who have favoured the Tories on account of Labour's record of being in charge when the deficit shot up, but this has been undermined somewhat by failing to hang onto a swathe of folk who might normally vote Labour(who are off to a combination of UKIP, SNP, Green and can't be ersed to vote).

    Posted 9 years ago #

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