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Holyrood2016 (via Paris)

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  1. chdot
    Admin

    Don't all groan at once!

    The GE2015 thread is still running and has been even calmer and less partisan than the IndyRef one.

    Various people (include Shirley Williams) have commented that the recent campaign barely mentioned Climate Change (etc.) - that largely included the Greens too.

    With PR it's likely that the Greens will get more than the current two seats - reasonable possibility of one per list - if of course they have some policies that attract a few extras voters.

    BUT, of course, 'the environment' isn't the preserve of the Greens.

    The CCE version of 'the environment' is safe cycle routes with the chance to spot wildlife. That's not party political.

    PoP has shown that politicians from all parties are 'interested' in cycling - or at least see that 'there are votes in it' - in Edinburgh anyway.

    The SNP OUGHT to be the 'cycling party' with its greener/fairer/nicer slogans - the policies didn't quite follow.

    Current polls suggest that the SNP will continue to do well and continue to 'run' Scotland. A year is a long time in politics.

    This next 12 months will undoubtedly see the SNP (and its policies and practices of governance) under scrutiny. It ought to change (things like) its transport policies. Likewise other parties - particularly (Scottish) Labour and the LDs will be looking for policies that might win votes.

    So plenty of things to consider and lobby on (if that is the sort of thing you do.)

    But Paris.

    Yes, the latest venue for 'world leaders' to fly to and discuss the future of everyone/thing - without compromising 'the economy' of course.

    CCE is fortunate to have all sorts of people who actually know about The Environment - and things like energy, resources, social policy throughout the world.

    I'm sure this thread will be useful (once the post GE2015 'hangover' recedes.)

    Posted 8 years ago #

  2. chdot
    Admin

    "

    UK Opinion Bee (@OpinionBee)
    10/05/2015 00:45
    YouGov/Times - Scottish Parl Constituency: SNP lead by 24. SNP 49, LAB 25, CON 15, LD 7.

    http://opinionbee.uk/poll/2168

    UK Opinion Bee (@OpinionBee)
    10/05/2015 00:47
    YouGov/Times - Scottish Parl Regional: SNP lead by 19. SNP 43, LAB 24, CON 16, LD 6, GRN 7, UKIP 2.

    http://opinionbee.uk/poll/2169

    "

    Posted 8 years ago #

  3. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Labour, with its one MP in Scotland, now has worse prospects than the Tories in Scotland, but a weak pulse can still be detected. What happens between now and next May’s Holyrood elections will determine whether it can live independently of a life-support machine. The Scottish Tories, though largely harmless, can still lead a twilight existence, comfortable in the knowledge that there is no other right-wing party to spoil the fun in their walled garden.

    Not so Scottish Labour. Their territory has been annexed by the SNP and the electorate has decided that, for the time being, social justice, fairness and equality sound better from the mouths of the SNP than from Labour.

    Jim Murphy, the stricken Scottish leader, must resign immediately. He holds neither a seat at Westminster nor at Holyrood and he has presided over the most humiliating defeat suffered by any political party since 1832.

    His attempts to blame his predecessor Johann Lamont, the woman he himself ambushed last year, are tawdry. His deputy, Kezia Dugdale, though raw and inexperienced, has nonetheless held her own at Holyrood and ought to be given the opportunity to lead.

    "

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/10/scottish-labour-jim-murphy-resign

    Posted 8 years ago #

  4. chdot
    Admin

    "Now that the next thing on the electoral horizon is SP2016 it's time to start reminding the current government's major party about simple and relatively cost-effective ways of reducing emissions/pollutions/healthcare expenditure, especially given how much they've been chumming up with the Greens recently."

    http://www.citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=14793&replies=11#post-188209

    Posted 8 years ago #

  5. wingpig
    Member

    Hmnh. Whilst it's possible that the Greens' and SNP's combined Yesses were (outside of the wish to secede) as uncomfortable and temporary an alliance as UKTogetherOKBetter, things like the implied lending of anti-Tory-but-kick-Labour votes, moratoria on fracking, protections of health services and group hugs at leaders' debates suggest that there's far less ideological animosity between them than between red and blue flavour Westminster.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  6. chdot
    Admin

    "

    A senior Labour MSP has warned the party is heading for "disappearance" in Scotland unless Jim Murphy resigns as leader.

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32703365

    Posted 8 years ago #

  7. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Douglas Fraser (@BBCDouglasF)
    16/05/2015 14:15
    Labour's @JimForScotland standing down as @scottishlabour leader in a month: hasn't explained his reasons clearly: @kdugdalemsp to stand in

    "

    "

    He said he had decided to stand down ahead of the national executive voting by 17-14 in favour of him staying in the job.

    ....

    Murphy said he wanted to have a successor as leader in place by the summer, and confirmed he would not be standing for a seat at the Scottish Parliament in next year's election.

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32760196

    Posted 8 years ago #

  8. gembo
    Member

    Curiously first reported on BBC as Murphy announcing he was staying on. I think they got the result and went with the headline before he spoke? Murray was loyal on radio four this morning but such a narrow win is not an endorsement and Murphy has worked that out. Dugdale can do no wrong? The force is with her and her luck is strong.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  9. chdot
    Admin

    "Dugdale can do no wrong?"

    Now there's a question!

    If the LP in S has any sense it will just elect her - with minimum fuss.

    'Immediate' target is next year's election. No-one can make a significant difference to whatever the result will be. Whoever is in charge, and whatever they do over the coming year, it will not be possible to say that the result (good or bad) was because X did Y.

    Kezia is already attempting to hold the SNP Gov to account and could continue to do so at least as well if she was leader.

    Obviously there are others at Holyrood who have already shown an interest in being leader, but, things have moved on.

    Whoever becomes leader won't have to worry about colleagues at Westminster!

    Posted 8 years ago #

  10. chdot
    Admin

    This might appeal to Gembo -

    "

    On a rather bigger stage of history, about this time in May 1940, Neville Chamberlain drew Lord Halifax and Winston Churchill aside and said :”the King has asked me for a name…I thought I might suggest Lord Halifax?”

    Churchill was trapped. he couldn’t say “No”…and he couldn’t say “Yes”. So he said nothing. He looked out of the window in silence until Halifax cracked and ruled himself out of the running.

    Now…I know it’s only wee Scotland…and the entire future of civilisation is not actually at stake….But Kezia, when Jim says today, “Kez…I know I can count on your support” and he smiles that weird, crooked smile…remember, he knows that at that moment he is entirely in your power…he is entirely dependent on your say so for his political survival…and he hates you for it. He will never forgive you. Powerless in everything else, he will destroy you along with the Party…

    Believe me. I’m a dramatist. I know how this scene works.

    If I were you, I’d look out of the window.

    "

    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2015/05/16/some-advice-for-kezia/

    Posted 8 years ago #

  11. gembo
    Member

    Nice. I want to see willie Rennie as only bloke leading Scottish political party. Apart from Foxy and Patrick Harvie of course.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  12. chdot
    Admin

    "

    No matter how satisfying the election of 56 SNP MPs, few voters would relish the prospect of an SNP dominated Scottish Parliament with no opposition. But there are many other sources from which new parties might emerge to fill the hollowed out space where Labour used to be – Women for Independence, the Scottish left project, the Greens and the SSP to name a few. Time is ticking away.

    "

    (Lesley Riddoch)

    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2015/05/16/end-games

    In spite of the current problems of the Labour Party, I don't see much likelihood of a new party emerging - at least not with sufficient momentum to gain seats in 11 months.

    This is my back of a digital envelope expectation -

    SNP (69) 67

    Lab (37) 28

    Tory (15) 22

    Ld (5) 5

    Gr (2) 7

    Oth (1) 0

    Tot (129) 129

    Of course that makes so many assumptions it's bound to be wrong!

    The electoral system means that however popular the SNP remains in a year's time, they won't get a Westminster style wipeout. Recent polls indicate that the Greens will do much better with the List than the current 2 seats - but they will have to be more visible over the next year. It will be interesting to see how they balance 'local' issues (social justice etc.) and global (Climate Change, resources etc.)

    I do expect more (and I hope better) mentions of 'cycling' in manifestos.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  13. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Interesting, I know the maths of Holyrood PR aren't particularly simple, so I tried to run through it myself based on previous SP and last GE voting proportions to see what happens. Labour comes out pretty similar but I get the LD losing even more seats and don't get the Tories getting quite such a boost.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  14. Tulyar
    Member

    I think that a sounding of the "Who would you really have voted for instead of the SNP" poll might be rather revealing, as I suspect that many voted tactically to ensure Labour did not get in/SNP won.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  15. chdot
    Admin

    "I suspect that many voted tactically to ensure Labour did not get in/SNP won."

    Yes, but people also voted to increase the chance of SNP not getting in.

    Only worked in South Ed!

    Posted 8 years ago #

  16. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @Tulyar

    Indeed. On the ballot paper when I voted earlier this month there were the person I thought would be best as my MP, the party I thought best suited to represent me and the person I voted for - all in three different boxes.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  17. chdot
    Admin

    "I get the LD losing even more seats"

    I was being charitable 'imagining' that LD voters would be loyal/think the party had suffered enough!

    "and don't get the Tories getting quite such a boost"

    You might well be right, but, this is one election where I think 'Tory minded people' will vote Tory. Even those unimpressed with whatever David&George get up to, they can 'support' them or think that Ruth is less extreme.

    I also expect Ruth to get more 'good press' for opposing Nicola than Kezia will - if only because she will have other concerns than Holyrood soundbites...

    Posted 8 years ago #

  18. kaputnik
    Moderator

    I suspect that many voted tactically to ensure Labour did not get in/SNP won.

    Is it a tactical vote if it's in the spirit of "SNP in" rather than "Labour Out"? Surely that's a more strategic vote.

    There was an interesting article in the Sunday Herald looking into the Ian Murray win in Edinburgh South. SNP had managed to magic-up 13,300 new votes (nearly as many as Ian Murray won with in 2010) and still not win, so where had they come from? As noted before, with large numbers of students in the area, there's a high voter turnover so things can jump from year to year - but this seat has been either safely Labour or before that Safely Tory for decades, with the SNP never getting a look in.

    The turnout was up 6,000 votes, so even if all those went to the SNP (which probably isn't the case), most likely they had to come from Labour or the Lib Dems, and quite probably more from the former - which would mean Labour potentially lost ~half its expected core vote.

    The Tories were down on expectations by about 1,500-3,000 votes, which they reckoned had tactically voted for Labour against the SNP. Many traditionally "Tory" seats in Scotland have gone Labour over the years as the latter drifted to the centre so it's probably not too much of an ideological leap.

    The poor Lib Dems were almost wiped out, going from 14,800 to 1,800 votes - a big stack of which were also thought to be tactically voting against the SNP.

    So the upshot of it all was the strange notion that Scotland's only Labour MP probably hadn't been voted in by core Labour voters, rather people who either liked the guy as an MP and were voting for him and not his party or who took umbridge with Neil Hay's murky past on Twitter, or just wanted "anyone but the essennpee". It's quite possible if the SNP had another, more local candidate (Neil Hay was a returned Spanish expat) who hadn't had a trolling sockpuppet Twitter account they would have cleaned up.

    Edinburgh West was similar (but different) with a big drop in the Tory vote probably trying to prop up the incumbent Mike Crockhart and the LD vote holding up.

    Anyway, it's all hugely complex with people going from Labour to SNP and being backfilled by Tory and LD voters. If the latter groups of voters continue to do this in an anti-SNP vote, the latter parties have something to worry about if they can't hold on to their own vote. Then again, when it comes to Holyrood this might not happen, and the second vote adds an additional dynamic to it all.

    I also expect Ruth to get more 'good press' for opposing Nicola than Kezia will

    Ruth has one of the easier jobs in Scottish Politics. She has to make the right noises against the SNP, doesn't have the responsibilities of power or being the defacto opposition, a fairly loyal vote to maintain and just make sure she doesn't alienate / lose and a press that are fairly neutral-to-warm towards her. I don't think she's seen as part of the Westminster Tory lot and she also doesn't have her own party knocking lumps out of eachother and potentially plotting against her like Kezia does.

    Posted 8 years ago #

  19. chdot
    Admin

    "

    The SNP’s win was nothing to do with a political pendulum swinging from left to right or back again; it is not like voters switching from Labour to the Conservatives or vice versa when they feel a new approach is necessary. Labour and the SNP are quite close on the broad thrust of their policies on the day-to-day issues. People have just decided the SNP do a better job. The Nationalists have effectively taken over Labour’s territory and it is going to be very difficult to win it back again.

    "

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/opinion/ian-swanson-blairite-path-a-death-wish-for-labour-1-3777966

    Posted 8 years ago #

  20. chdot
    Admin

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/kezia-dugdale-to-run-for-scottish-labour-leader-1-3780495

    Posted 8 years ago #

  21. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Mr Biagi said he was pleased to have played a part in bringing the Green Investment Bank to Edinburgh, as well as campaigning for increased cycling facilities, action against party flats and more affordable housing in the city centre.

    "

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/msp-marco-biagi-announces-plan-to-quit-scottish-parliament-1-3781456

    Posted 8 years ago #

  22. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Dr Richard Dixon, ECSC chair, said: “2015 is an important year for climate change, with the world’s nations supposed to agree new global targets in Paris at the end of the year. Around the world local people are creating their own solutions to climate change by investing in local renewable energy schemes.

    "

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/solar-panels-to-be-fitted-to-25-council-buildings-1-3782412

    Posted 8 years ago #

  23. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Given the wide range of potential climate change scenarios and significant uncertainty, our view is that at present a business case for investment can not be made. Rather, this work has identified our most vulnerable zones which require a detailed assessment. In addition, it has shown the importance of gathering more information to improve our understanding of the potential impacts and identify the appropriate timing and form of adaptation measures.

    "

    Water Resource Plan 2015 (Summary Report)

    http://www.scottishwater.co.uk/assets/about%20us/files/key%20publications/wrp2015.pdf

    Posted 8 years ago #

  24. chdot
    Admin

    "

    THE Scottish Government faces "international disrepute" if it continues to miss its own tough targets for reducing carbon emissions, according to damning internal report.

    "

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/scottish-politics/scottish-government-risks-international-disrepute-over-failure-to-meet-se.127533037

    Posted 8 years ago #

  25. chdot
    Admin

    "

    The academics are led by the UK’s former chief scientist Professor Sir David King. He told BBC News: “We have already discovered enough fossil fuels to wreck the climate many times over. There’s only one thing that’s going to stop us burning it – and that’s if renewables become cheaper than fossil fuels.

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32967386

    Posted 8 years ago #

  26. chdot
    Admin

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/slowdown-in-climate-change-never-happened-says-major-review-10298328.html

    Posted 8 years ago #

  27. chdot
    Admin

    "

    She said: “Labour has to win again in Scotland - not in 2020, but in 2016 in the Scottish Parliament elections.

    "

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/yvette-cooper-says-labour-must-win-back-scotland-1-3794160

    Posted 8 years ago #

  28. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Scotsman (@TheScotsman)
    06/06/2015 11:41
    Kenny MacAskill has announced he will stand down as an MSP at next year’s Holyrood election.

    http://bit.ly/1JycOon http://pic.twitter.com/5pwbT4bHla

    "

    Posted 8 years ago #

  29. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Scottish Greens call for bolder action on climate targets

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-33034930

    Posted 8 years ago #

  30. chdot
    Admin

    http://www.iol.co.za/business/international/climate-change-action-on-obama-merkel-s-g7-agendas-1.1868636

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/06/paris-climate-summit-deal-west-finance-fabius

    Posted 8 years ago #

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