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Holyrood2016

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  1. Rosie
    Member

    Ruth Davidson loves being seen riding tanks and buffalos. Why not a tandem?

    Posted 7 years ago #
  2. chdot
    Admin

    "Why not a tandem?"

    Indeed.

    Can be arranged.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  3. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Kevin Williamson (@williamsonkev)
    06/05/2016, 09:14
    Biggest story isn't Tories. They'll have ZERO access to power in Holyrood over next 5 years. Main story is Greens holding balance of power.

    "

    Posted 7 years ago #
  4. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Fay Young (@fay_young)
    06/05/2016, 08:49
    Gutted we have lost @SarahBoyack,huge loss for Edinburgh/ Scotland - she deserves award for lasting legacy on environment & social policy

    "

    Posted 7 years ago #
  5. Rosie
    Member

    "Main story is Greens holding balance of power."
    True, and see what concessions they can wring out of them.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  6. chdot
    Admin

    MSPs @POPScotland 2016 @MilesBriggs3 @AlisonJohnstone @andywightman @patrickharvie @D_G_Johnson @kezdugdale @willie_rennie @agcolehamilto @DerekMackaySNP

    Posted 7 years ago #
  7. newtoit
    Member

    So, I have an SNP MSP still. Anyone know what Ash Denham's views on Active Travel are like??

    Posted 7 years ago #
  8. LaidBack
    Member

    Ruth Davidson loves being seen riding tanks and buffalos. Why not a tandem?

    No. No. No.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  9. PS
    Member

    Looks like I get to badger Ruth Davidson with emails about needing increased cycling provision in the Edinburgh Central.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  10. Rosie
    Member

    @PS - Can you give her a day off to recover?

    Posted 7 years ago #
  11. PS
    Member

    Sure, although can any psychologists out there comment on the efficacy of influencing individuals when they are in a state of sleepless euphoria?

    Posted 7 years ago #
  12. Rosie
    Member

    @PS - True enough, she'll agree to anything at the moment.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  13. jonty
    Member

    I think "Tories being locked out of power" is a bit optimistic and assumes they're essentially polar opposites. Not really the case - at some points in the 2007-2011 session, you'd have been forgiven for thinking the SNP and Tories were in coalition together.

    Thinking pessimistically, the SNP will just seek support from the Tories on the stuff Greens & Labour disagree with them on (eg. tax - their income & council tax policies are actually quite similar) and do the reverse for the stuff the Tories won't support them on.

    Thinking more positively, there will be probably be some quid pro quo coming back the Greens' way at some point - it'll be interesting to see what they prioritise. Hopefully they can push the SNP into more radical positions by sheer rhetorical force too - they'll be looking to reinvent themselves a bit for fear of losing any more support in the list votes.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  14. kaputnik
    Moderator

    The Greens now have enough MSPs to form a formal party group and should also have more representation at the all important committees - The Lib Dems currently have 4 slots on 5 members but the Greens currently only have single a seat at the Economy, Energy and Tourism table so are not represented in Infrastructre and Capital Investment, Local Government and Regeneration or Rural Affairs, Climate Change and Environment where they should be able to lend a more radical voice.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  15. acsimpson
    Member

    Very pleased to see the greens holding the balance of power compared to an SNP majority. Also pleased to see Alex Cole-H winning Edinburgh Western although it's a shame we couldn't have both him and Toni G as both are pro active travel.

    If we're lucky Toni will stand for the council elections next year. He would be a great asset to have in the SNP council group.

    I don't think I've ever been so undecided in an election. Although Alex was my preferred candidate he seemed likely to win the list seat if Toni took Edinburgh Western. In the end I decided to play safe and vote for Alex. I was similarly torn on the list vote as I still disagree with the Greens Stance on Independence. I put the cross in the box and then considered spoiling my paper but didn't. I hope they wont take my vote to be part of a mandate for another divisive referendum within the next 5 years.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  16. Rosie
    Member

    I'd have voted Green if it wasn't for their indy stance. I do prefer the present set up to an SNP majority & there are a couple of good greenies - Johnston, Wightman. I'm hoping that they realise banging on about independence and waving referendums about is counterproductive and they'll drop it.

    So are we to expect Hosie persuading us obdurate Noes about the brave dream of independence in the summer?

    Posted 7 years ago #
  17. kaputnik
    Moderator

    If the SNP want another referendum, I don't see it happening in the next term. I think there's been enough of a warning shot across the bows that although their support has held up (and in percentage terms has crept up since 2011), they've still a long way to go to build up the sort of pro-independence majority that they require. I don't think they'd go for it again unless they seriously think they've got the weight of numbers behind them to give them a fairly comfortable win. They need a further decent leap in support to get anywhere near that and in my opinion can only come through being more conciliatory and also demonstrating they can govern effectively and prove beyond a reasonable doubt that they do it much better than Westminster.

    I don't see the Greens doing anything to force through a referendum vote, regardless of whether they would campaign for a Yes vote in one or not. They're in a reasonable position and built up a good power base, but they were there before in 1999 and didn't or couldn't follow through. So they need to concentrate on holding on to what they have gained and consider how they can build on that through demonstrating they have something different to offer and aren't just an occasional, reactionary protest vote. You can guarantee that Andy Whightman won't be giving the SNP a quite ride on local taxation and land reform in fact he will probably be a far more vocal and effective critic than most of the apparent opposition parties will.

    Doing the sums on constituency votes, it was about 48:52% Yes:No aligned parties and on the list votes it's 50.1:49.9% Yes:No aligned. So there's no clear signals or mandate either way there...

    Labour appears to be caught in a hard place between a vocally pro-Independence centrist-left-of-centre party and a vocally anti-Referendum right-of-centre party. They can only recover by winning back voters from either the SNP or the Tories; the Lib Dems really have very little weight of vote left to be raided. They are also in a difficult position of having used their list votes to get the remains of the old guard re-elected and are somewhat lacking in new faces and ideas in the chamber so can't even play the "new brooms, new Labour" card that easily. I certainly don't envy anyone with Kez's job (be that her, or a successor).

    Posted 7 years ago #
  18. gibbo
    Member

    "Very pleased to see the greens holding the balance of power compared to an SNP majority."

    I agree. It's got to be a good thing.

    "Also pleased to see Alex Cole-H winning Edinburgh Western although"

    Speaking as someone who works in marketing (and lives in D Mains), his leaflets were head and shoulders above the other candidates'.

    I would have voted for him if it hadn't been for his party standing by Carmichael.

    "it's a shame we couldn't have both him and Toni G as both are pro active travel.

    If we're lucky Toni will stand for the council elections next year. He would be a great asset to have in the SNP council group."

    I hope he does stand. It's a pity his party doesn't share his support for active travel. It's the "1.9% of the budget" that caused me to walk away from the SNP.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  19. stiltskin
    Member

    I wonder if the Greens gained or lost through their Indy stance. I have always voted Green when I could but not this time because of their support for Independence, OTOH I can see they might pick up voted from people who are not SNP supporters but are Yes voters. It's a shame from my point of view because I want Green issues to be given a boost. I just wish they hadn't tied themselves so firmly to constitutional affairs.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  20. chdot
    Admin

    Up to date -

    http://www.parliament.scot/msps/current-msps.aspx

    Posted 7 years ago #
  21. Rosie
    Member

    Greens pick up votes from the left who once would have supported Labour & can't stomach the SNP's Tory-liteness.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  22. kaputnik
    Moderator

    I spreadsheeted and computated the numbers for across the Edinburgh constituency votes and made following observations by tweet;

    - The Tories got 19.9% of Edinburgh constituency votes and haven't been this wildly popular since they got 19.9% in 2007 under Annabel Goldie

    - this is also the first time in SP where the Tory vote across Edinburgh has been lower than across Scotland as a whole

    - indeed in any national election since 1983, the Tory vote in Edinburgh has always been a good few % points above national vote

    - For SNPers scratching their heads, this is actually the highest % of constituency votes they've ever had in an SP election in Edinburgh

    - What Tories got right is getting their increase focussed where they can realistically win, not just across the board

    - Libs did well in Western at expense of Labour. Tories in Central of Lib/Lab. Labour in Southern from Libs. SNP vote still up in all 3.

    So I'll stick by my earlier observation that there's been an entrenchment of an anti-SNP vote around Labour to the South, Lib Dems to the West and Tories in the Centre. Given the strength of SNP vote in general this only works as a strategy where you have a candidate who can beg/borrow/steal a big enough mass of votes from their non-SNP opponents to get past the 30-40% that the SNP might be picking up; the SNP lost Central with 33% of vote, Western with 34% and Southern with 33%.

    Of course tactical voting sounds simple in practice but only works if there's a hive-mind at play so that lots of other people do the same. If there's a split choice with no clear indication which way to get your desired intended outcome, it's a difficult call to make.

    Lib Dems always had a natural home in West of Edinburgh and the Michelle Thompson scandal won't have helped the SNP there. Labour have a long-standing association with the various constituencies in south of Edinburgh and Ian Murray obviously indicated which way to go. I'd be scratching my head at Sarah Boyack not doing so well up against Ruth Davidson but then I recall the geography of Edinburgh North, there's a big enough pool of potential Tory voters there to be poached with what seems like not too much required persuasion.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  23. HankChief
    Member

    his appointment hinged on a pack of cards.

    Tories never expected to get 4 MSPS - Jeremy Balfour as No.4, who got 4th by a cut of a pack of cards.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  24. wingpig
    Member

    How many people who voted No at the indyref were still trying to vote No yesterday, even though the indyref was eighteen months and a UK general election ago? All my bits of voting-paper definitely said "Scottish Parliamentry Elections 2016" or something to that effect.

    When I got to my voting-station I thought that they'd installed four new bike racks by the door at the bit where voting was pre-2014, but it turned out they'd just moved the racks from where they used to be (near to where the voting-bit is now), so I used a drainpipe instead.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  25. kaputnik
    Moderator

    @Wingpig if the BBC are to be believed plenty of people were voting in the EU Referendum... Let's hope if they're right that UKIP's performance (or lack of) is something of an omen.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  26. HankChief
    Member

    One interesting thing about LibDems taking Edin Western is the lack of #BothvotesLibDem or the presence of tactical voting.

    Alex Cole-Hamilton got 16,645 votes in Ed Western, whereas LibDems got 18,479 across all of the Lothians.

    The Tories got the last Lothian seat with 18,744 votes (scaled down due to previous seats won), so had Alex not got EdW he wouldn't have got a list seat.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  27. gembo
    Member

    in constituency vote labour 0.6% ahead of tories. But this translated into only 3 seats (Dumbarton I am guessing nlike East Lothian becasue the candidate was a good local person?)

    Looks like some SNP votes did not go SNP twice. About 100,000 (I assume no one voted somebody else constituency, SNP region?. Nice chap who sits next to me at work voted SNP then green (he says he was tactically trying to stop Kim Yung Il, though Sarah Boyack would have been my preference to stop Ruth D).

    I think SNP Conservative must be a reality too. but small numbers

    Posted 7 years ago #
  28. Rob
    Member

    "Anyone know what Ash Denham's views on Active Travel are like?"

    I asked her about Roseburn->Leith and what it could mean for extending safe cycling routes in Edinburgh East - "In principal I am very supportive of getting more people cycling and for the cycle routes to be made safe, so that cyclist really feel and are safe when using them". She did promise to look into it if elected.

    "I was similarly torn on the list vote as I still disagree with the Greens Stance on Independence.
    ...
    I hope they wont take my vote to be part of a mandate for another divisive referendum within the next 5 years."

    Ditto. In the end I decided that voting based on a referendum we already had was a bad plan. At some point we have to move on.

    Maybe if we all tweet them "I almost didn't vote for you due to the independence noise your leader is making. In the end, I did because I like bikes."

    Posted 7 years ago #
  29. PS
    Member

    I don't think I've ever voted for the same party in the constituency and the regional votes. I like to share the love. And really don't see eye to eye with any of the parties.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  30. "I just wish they hadn't tied themselves so firmly to constitutional affairs."

    "I'd have voted Green if it wasn't for their indy stance. I'm hoping that they realise banging on about independence and waving referendums about is counterproductive and they'll drop it."

    Whilst the SGP are firmly pro indy, their SP16 campaign was probably less "tied to constitutional matters" than any other party.

    Its the SNP's raison d'etre - so fair enough
    the tories made great play of how they were now the only true unionist party
    SLAB made great play of how the tories were wrong and how they would deny the Scottish electorate another referendum - even if the vast majority wanted one!

    the SGP's main focus was on taxation, land reform, transport, energy and the environment!IIRC, the manifest made no mention whatsoever of independence or another referendum. It did mention plenty about transferring power to local government (away from holyrood)

    So, not only no "banging on" but hardly a mention!

    Posted 7 years ago #

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