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What will be the dominant bicycle type of the next decade?

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  1. Smudge
    Member

    I’ve been looking at the bicycles I see as I travel about and, excepting the desperately fashionable on fixies and faux fixies I’m seeing fewer and fewer mountain bikes, I’m also starting to see many more practical bikes (eg, fitted with full mudguards, lights, bell etc.).
    This led me to wonder… the eighties and nineties were the era of the mountain bike, as people realise a bicycle is useful/fun but a mountain bike is somewhat compromised away from the mountains, the 2000-2010’s (don’t know a snappy abbreviation!) seem to have become the era of the hybrid (or often the roadified/commuting prepared mountain bike).

    So will the next decade be the era of the tourer style bike? (my definition: a bike without suspension with drop bars and mudguards and at least one rack which will take panniers, middle sized road tyres and a wide range of gearing. Eg. Ridgeback Panorama or a kitted ‘cross bike doubtless open to debate though!)

    Or will there be a different craze/fashion…? Maybe folders as bikes become more popular and space more restricted?

    As exam papers used to say, “discuss” ;-)

    Posted 13 years ago #
  2. chdot
    Admin

    Interesting question.

    A simple answer is, perhaps, "none".

    The last few years has demonstrated diversity.

    Before "Mountain Bikes' there were perhaps two sorts - straight handlebars and dropped.

    The first sort could be described as utility and now are 're-emerging' as Dutch/Pashley! (with the added benefits of more than 3 (hub) gears).

    Dropped bars were (generally) either 'tourers' or 'racers'.

    Then 'adults' stopped riding bikes (unless they were 'poor' or cycling was their 'pastime').

    Due (partly) to the 'oil crisis' the 80's saw a bit of a revival - especially in America, where the 'ten speed racer' became normal.

    Unfortunately many weren't exactly great and actually put people off cycling!

    'Mountain Bikes" were a genuine revolution. A Californian accident initially used for going down mountains.

    One of the main things they did was almost heretical - demonstrate that for many people (and for potential more places to cycle) fat tires (sic) were better (or at least more appropriate) than the 'skinny is faster' racer tyre.

    It was almost by coincidence (because of the 'news boy' bikes they were tinkered from) that they also had straight bars.

    Comfortable tyres, an upright riding position, a 'go anywhere' practicality (plus all the hype) meant that they became popular with 'new' cyclists.

    The 'craze' also led to genuine technological advances - particularly with gears and brakes. Triple chainsets became normal -resulting in sensible, low, gears for climbing mountains or The Mound.

    The almost universal use of alloy rims plus cantilever brakes meant that the bikes stopped on a hillside, in the wet, in traffic...

    For most people bikes are mainly used in urban areas - often for going to real places (work etc.) several times a week.

    So increasingly people want reliability, robustness, comfort. At the same time some people also want lightness and speed.

    Same old conflicts and contradictions.

    For years the bicycle industry (particularly in the UK) has been trying to develop/sell 'the hybrid'.

    This is either the best of both worlds (racer, MTB) or an undesirable compromise.

    Some 'hybrids' are dressed-up versions of things our grandparents might have ridden others are refined versions of classic cyclocross bikes.

    I used to think that the demand for folders would diminish when bikes on trains became easier/free. But that is far from the case!

    I hope the future bike(s) will be the ones that suit the people who buy them and are not just 'the latest thing' or what bike shops choose to stock.

    Go with the latest trend if you want to, but don't feel you have to.

    Clearly we need to watch what Anth rides.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  3. LaidBack
    Member

    Cheap Dutch bike copies in lots of colours with whitewalled Big Apple type tyres.

    Think cheap shoes copying expensive brands...

    Actual efficiency or roadworthiness will remain secondary (as has been normal in the bulk market for years).
    Nothing radical will sell much because 'retro' is the security blanket for the 21st Century.

    Someone will then design a folding retro bike* with monoforks that has the appeal of a Vespa. A year later they will sell same model with built-in solar lights. Then electric assist. Factories in Papua New Guinea will be busy as the search for cheaper labour intensifies.

    The Dawes Galaxy (Papua New Guinea version) will be a best seller.

    *Go-cycle made mistake of looking too modern.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  4. chdot
    Admin

    "Actual efficiency or roadworthiness will remain secondary (as has been normal in the bulk market for years)."

    "Think cheap shoes copying expensive brands..."

    You're probably right.

    There have been various attempts over the years to improve the regulations for new bikes - and stop supermarkets (etc.) selling bikes in boxes.

    I'm sure most people on here will manage to avoid the worst. Plenty of people have thought about 'taking up cycling' but 'don't want to spend much in case I don't like it.'

    Sadly that (understandable) view becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy!

    Posted 13 years ago #
  5. cb
    Member

    It's quite unusual to see a cyclisyt with a muddy streak up their back these days. So compared with five or 10 years ago things have changed quite a lot.

    I think we'll see a lot more electric assisted bikes in the next 10 years (a lot more from a current user base of hardly any, mind) but I guess these won't be any particular 'style'.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  6. splitshift
    Member

    to look to the future,look to the past !
    Kids ! look at what they are doing to thier bikes right now,as they grow up and have money they will start to pay instead of modify. Seriously when I was young we went to anywhere we could and begged borrowed or stole frames,we fitted chopper rear wheels to both ends and fitted wide,grifter style bars,stripped of all padding ! We used our dads car jack to spread forks, and frames.One guy who was a welder even graffted on an extra set of forks to create a cruiser style !With our "scramblers" we would spend all day racing against each other or exploring the country park, before it was a park. I knew one guy who fitted two sets of brakes to his rear wheel, dual cables to two cantis ! It was for looks rather bthan braking efficiency........
    I am sure many people our age did similar things. Look to the kids, although they all seem to be on bmx hybrid thingys !

    Posted 13 years ago #
  7. chdot
    Admin

    "I think we'll see a lot more electric assisted bikes in the next 10 years"

    Yes, but.

    Sales seemed to have stalled, more than hoped/anticipated by some manufactures.

    There are still considerable cost of running/battery replacement issues.

    There are genuinely a lot of people - (much) older/infirm who would benefit from 'power assist' but plenty of others 'tempted' who would be better off just getting fit enough to ride a normal bike.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  8. chdot
    Admin

  9. TwoWheels
    Member

    Heh. Next time I get to Edinburgh, I look forward to meeting all you guys while riding our recumbents. Of course, LaidBack will be all rich and retired by then.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  10. LaidBack
    Member

    My daughter's two 'retired' pets. Sparkle likes her bike while Max stays on the floor. A nice broad Brooks saddle just doesn't compare.

    I will of course brush it before letting any cat-phobic people use!

    Posted 13 years ago #
  11. kaputnik
    Moderator

    I think lots and lots of people will try and "revolutionise" the bike over the next decade and I think what they're going to come up with is as follow;

    A pair of spoked, metal wheels with rubber tyres.
    A couple of tubing triangles for a frame with a seat poking out of the upright tube. Some pedals and a crank revolving round a bottom bracket and driving the rear wheel via a chain and gears or some description at the back. There will be brakes front and rear with levers to apply them up front, back (left) and front (right). These levers will be on some handlebars that will steer a fork holding the front wheel. There will be attachment points for lights, bells, mudguards, bottlecages and racks.

    So that's an Edwardian safety bike, right? Or a modern MTB. Or a road bike. Or a "hybrid", a "tourer"...

    Of course there will be the eccentric minorities on their folding or reclining contraptions :)

    Posted 13 years ago #
  12. chdot
    Admin

    "eccentric minorities"

    You talking about Shimano Biopace chainsets?

    Posted 13 years ago #
  13. Dave
    Member

    Belt drive and better internal hubs, plus wider availability of disc brakes would be what I'd watch out for.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  14. chdot
    Admin

    "Belt drive and better internal hubs, plus wider availability of disc brakes"

    Indeed. All three on the same bike(s) too.

    Cost/price will be any issue - though you can get discs on really cheap bikes. (Perhaps best described as 'cosmetic brakes'!)

    No doubt China is currently building a 'belt drive industrial city'.

    One effect of the Cycle to Work scheme is that people have been enticed into buying more expensive bikes. For some this has meant daily exposure to better bikes. Sometimes this is with the realisation that running/maintenance costs are higher.

    Hub gears generally have lower running costs. The same is true for current belt drive systems. Whether 'cheap copies' wear as well remains to be seen.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  15. LaidBack
    Member

    kaputnik Of course there will be the eccentric minorities on their folding or reclining contraptions :)

    Are you saying that Sparkle is eccentric because she isn't on an upright? There was one behind that she could have used... ;-) Even Max wanted to use the seat but the cat got there first... !

    A modern 'mass' bike...
    Hub gears
    Belt drive
    Hub brakes (as they need little work)
    Hub lighting or 'solar mudguards' (© LB Technologies 2010)

    Of course
    Velo Vision Magazine
    has previously discussed these things. (As has City Cycling - when are we getting back isuees Anth?)

    AAGGHH!
    Sinclair have jsut re-entered the HPV market.
    Sinclair assault on the reclining market

    That could be very bad news for recliners.
    The wheel size is 16"
    I rest my case....

    PS - The C5 'only' sold around 17,000 units in total(!) It currently remains the best selling electric vehicle of all time. Most 'niche bike makers could only dream of a figure like that so just shows you...

    Posted 13 years ago #
  16. cb
    Member

    Only 12,000 C5s sold according to the Wikipedia article.

    Sinclair obviously likes small wheels but they are increasing the size of the wheels on the A-bike to 8"!

    Never seen an A-bike in Edinburgh (or anywhere). I predict that they are not the future of cycling (although quite clever in their own sweet way)

    Posted 13 years ago #
  17. LaidBack
    Member

    Only 12,000 C5s sold according to the Wikipedia article.

    The 17,000 figure was from their site. 12,000 not bad but a waste of resources if never used.

    I've never seen an A-bike either.

    I predict 'Nothing unusual or costing more than £399.95' will be the future of cycling. Most 'trends' are created with a massive PR plug and clever marketing. The 'best design' never wins. (Of course bike mechanics have their own definition of best!)

    Moulton design is recognised as clever but still very uncommon. Chdot can tell us how many they have made (!)

    Posted 13 years ago #
  18. chdot
    Admin

    "Chdot can tell us how many they have made"

    Not that geeky.

    Series 1 & 2 a lot - radicalised/revived the adult end of the UK bike industry. Raleigh got jealous and produced the RSW turkey. Which led to 'garage forecourt folders' and another decline in cycling.

    The Mk3 (built by Raleigh) coincided with a really duff Sturmey Archer hub brake design which won't have helped improve Raleigh's lack of enthusiasm. So sold (uncertain) thousands.

    For the last 25 years Moultons have been hand built (apart from the Japanese Bridgestone variation) in the factory next to AM's house (Hall). The number may well be a trade secret, won't be massive.

    There are a lot of 60's ones still in regular use and available (mostly via ebay) at pretty cheap prices for full suspension bikes! The later ones were never cheap.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  19. chdot
    Admin

    "
    News

    What will be the dominant bicycle type of the next decade?

    Yet another interesting thread from CityCyclingEdinburgh.
    "

    http://www.edinburghbicycle.com/comms/srv.a4d?f_pg=news.htm&f_Cardinal=4

    Posted 13 years ago #
  20. Smudge
    Member

    eyethankyou.. :-D

    Posted 13 years ago #
  21. Dave
    Member

    In broad terms, it's probably fair to say that cycling in the UK currently takes its cue from either branch of sport cycling - road or MTB.

    Neither really compels as an answer to every-day cycling. So, as (if?) that grows in its own right, you'd expect to see diversification to cater to that market.

    I think we've already seen quite a lot of this, with the rise of the hybrid, but still manufacturers are surprisingly unwilling to make the kind of bikes that people need:

    For example, out of 36 "comfort" bikes listed on the EBC website just 11 have mudguards. It's unimaginable that anyone would buy a "comfort/utility" car which was a soft-top with no roof supplied.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  22. chdot
    Admin

    "For example, out of 36 "comfort" bikes listed on the EBC website just 11 have mudguards"

    It was an even smaller ratio last year which I also found really surprising from EBC.

    In general bike shops make money from 'add-ons', but if you sell bikes in large quantities must be more cost effective/profitable to get such things fitted in a far east factory.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  23. Arellcat
    Moderator

    Ok, I'm paraphrasing the decades, but to me:

    1950s - black sit up and beg, some roadsters
    1960s - Moulton mk1/mk2 (suspension)
    1970s - British tourer, or Raleigh Shopper/20/etc (solid build)
    1980s - BMX, some MTBs (lighter weight, new metals)
    1990s - MTBs (new brakes/gears)
    2000s - Hybrids, MTBs, folders (utility, disc brakes, some electrics)

    So my prediction for the 2010s is mainly utility:

    * an amalgamation of folding bike thinking using cheaper multi-speed hub gears, Kevlar brake and gear cables, and either 26" or 24" wheels; and
    * much greater market penetration of the electric bicycle: motor assist, with a wiring loom for regenerative braking, lights and navigation.
    * I also think we'll see hydraulic systems adopted by road groupsets for brakes, and by the MTB/offroaders for gears.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  24. chdot
    Admin

    What's your definition of roadster?

    Posted 13 years ago #
  25. Arellcat
    Moderator

    A tourer with swept-back handlebars and no mudguards.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  26. Cyclingmollie
    Member

    We had a couple of staff over from the Netherlands. They both commented on how odd it seemed that people in Edinburgh all seemed to ride mountain bikes. One spent weeks hunting for and eventually finding a "Dutch" bike. The other said she would never cycle among such aggressive drivers as those she saw here. Perhaps Edinburgh is an unusual case because of the amount of cobbles and hills but I think wide tyres and low gears are always going to be part of a good Edinburgh bike whatever happens elsewhere. Personally I found that a narrow tyred road bike prevented me from using some cobbled roads (Brighton Place was the best/worst example).

    Posted 13 years ago #
  27. chdot
    Admin

    "Brighton Place was the best/worst example"

    Haven't been there for a while but certainly was pretty bad.

    My worst is probably Drummond Place (esp Scotland Street to London Street).

    New thread anyone?

    Posted 13 years ago #
  28. LaidBack
    Member

    In general bike shops make money from 'add-ons', but if you sell bikes in large quantities must be more cost effective/profitable to get such things fitted in a far east factory.

    Or a Netherlands one too. My own experince of 'building' a far east 'retro' bike was that all items were on hand and fitted quickly. Items also matched nicely - aesthetics are important.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  29. Dave
    Member

    Hydraulic shifters would be amazing. You'd need two little pipes inside the housing (one for 'in', one for 'out' - unless there's a much cleverer idea).

    You'd never need to worry about them. The first time I had to touch the front brake on my recumbent was when the pads wore out after 2500 miles, and I haven't touched them since!

    Posted 13 years ago #
  30. Cyclingmollie
    Member

    chdot: "New thread anyone?" New thread started.

    Posted 13 years ago #

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