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" ‘Pessimistic’ passenger forecasts hit bid to reopen Scots rail lines"

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  1. chdot
    Admin

    "

    Hopes of reopening more railway lines across Scotland could be dashed by “utterly discredited” official passenger forecasting, campaigners fear.

    They said plans to restore tracks to places such as Levenmouth, St Andrews and Fraserburgh were threatened after projections for the Borders Railway proved to have significantly underestimated demand.

    A total of 184,000 passengers used Tweedbank station in its first six months – almost ten times the 19,000 estimate.

    "

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/pessimistic-passenger-forecasts-hit-bid-to-reopen-scots-rail-lines-1-4163256

    More passengers than expected so less chance of more lines(?)

    Posted 7 years ago #

  2. Frenchy
    Member

    Huh?

    ...no, seriously, huh?

    Posted 7 years ago #

  3. Morningsider
    Member

    I think they are trying to say that if the methodology used to predict passengers numbers on new lines was more accurate (i.e. produced the higher figures that happen in reality after a new line opens) then the business case for these lines would be far more convincing.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  4. chdot
    Admin

    "I think they are trying to say that ... "

    Yes, but you'd think by now they would revise their methodology!

    No chance of cash transfer from roads to rail and active travel of course...

    Posted 7 years ago #

  5. SRD
    Moderator

    They seem to be saying that the methodology is fine, just that the borders railway is exceptional (although you'd think they'd have built that into the modelling, no?)

    Posted 7 years ago #

  6. crowriver
    Member

    "places such as Levenmouth, St Andrews and Fraserburgh"

    St Andrews maybe. Can't see the huge demand for the other two.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  7. kaputnik
    Moderator

    They seem to be saying that the methodology is fine, just that the borders railway is exceptional

    I'm pretty sure they were way off the mark on the Airdrie-Bathgate and the Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine re-openings too.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  8. gembo
    Member

    Imagine if everyone caught the train and the congestion on the roads went down so much that the buses journey times fell and then everyone stopped using the trains and went on the buses. (Scratches head, wonky crystal ball prediction)

    Posted 7 years ago #

  9. Frenchy
    Member

    "St Andrews maybe. Can't see the huge demand for the other two."

    60 000+ people live in Bridge of Don, Ellon, Peterhead and Fraserburgh, and many of them will work in Aberdeen. Currently public transport from Fraserburgh to Aberdeen takes over two and a hours if you want to be in before 9am (and you need to change buses in Ellon). Driving takes about an hour. Seems a train service would be an obvious improvement to me.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  10. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Can't see the huge demand for the other two

    There was one of those data mashup maps I saw on Twitter of population density mapped against distance from a rail station. Fraserburgh, Peterhead and the environs were the brightest red spots in Scotland by some considerable way.

    Can't for the life of me find a link to it now.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  11. cb
    Member

    I've also heard it said (possibly by the local MP, MSP or councillor) that Levenmouth is the largest urban area in Scotland with no railway station.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  12. chdot
    Admin

    "data mashup map"

    Might be here (can't be bothered to scroll through 250 pages!)

    "

    Future public transport travel times, predicted by ASAM show that travel times for 2023 are forecast to generally fall (compared to 2010 baseline year times) in both the morning and evening peak hours. In particular journey times to Aberdeen are forecast to fall significantly from Ellon, Peterhead and Fraserburgh. In 2033, public transport journey times are forecast to return to a similar level to the 2010 baseline suggesting road congestion may negate any infrastructure improvements, specifically the Balmedie to Tipperty dualling, made within the Study Area.

    "

    http://www.nestrans.org.uk/db_docs/members/77322_Fraserburgh_and_Peterhead_to_Aberdeen_Strategic_Transport_Study-Baseline_Report_Final.pdf

    Posted 7 years ago #

  13. PS
    Member

    I'm pretty sure they were way off the mark on the Airdrie-Bathgate and the Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine re-openings too.

    They were. There have been complaints for years that the DfT's demand forecasts are based on questionable assumptions (low oil price, amongst other things, leading to ongoing growth in road traffic - something that the evidence over the past 15 years indicates has not been the case). Transport Scotland is probably using similar models.

    At some point a government is going to have to build infrastructure that reflects what it wants future transport to look like, rather than try to second guess what it might just be if nothing changes (events since Thursday confirm that the one thing you can be certain about in respect of economic forecasts is that they will be wrong).

    Posted 7 years ago #

  14. Frenchy
    Member

    "Might be here (can't be bothered to scroll through 250 pages!)"

    Doesn't appear to be, although the original data might be.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  15. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Might be here

    No it was a personal website of a GIS expert, with a click-and-zoom interactive map. I should be able to dig it out of tweets later. It's interesting anyway.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  16. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Found it;

    https://mikerspencer.cartodb.com/viz/c7cf448e-2727-11e6-8d2f-0ecd1babdde5/public_map#/more

    Posted 7 years ago #

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