I thought I'd drag this thread, kicking and screaming, back into the light of day. I'm still very confused and waiting for an exercise physiologist to explain what's happening.
On yesterday's long ride, my average heart rate rose in the first few hours, was steady for the next 12 hours or so, and then began to decline. This decline wasn't unexpected, as I didn't eat all that much in small hours of the morning, and was kind of expecting that to happen. Pleasingly, after all the training I've been doing, it happened later into the ride than it used to.
However the trend of my heart rate curve exactly matches the trend of the temperature cure. Average heart rate rose as the day warmed up, then fell in the cool of the night. It's clear that my heart will be working harder when the weather is hot, but it wasn't that hot yesterday.
Would you expect ambient temperature to have a noticeable effect on heart rate during steady exercise? I know about 'cardiac drift' if you're working really hard, but I wasn't...