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All aboard the Transport bandwagon

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  1. SRD
    Moderator

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sterling-is-in-crisis-and-theres-no-sugar-coating-the-reason-why-wb97dzllw

    Interesting piece here in the Times about the impact of Brexit on the economy, with this as well:

    "All aboard the transport bandwagon
    For the first time since the Second World War, car ownership has declined for two consecutive years. This could be a blip — supply-chain issues have meant you would struggle to get a new Merc even if you wanted one. But some company bosses are drawing deeper conclusions.

    As we report today, after studying the car-buying data, Ikea is moving away from opening new out-of-town behemoth stores to building smaller ones in city centres. Customers will get to these shops by public transport and order for home delivery.

    This change is little short of seismic for Ikea. It has built an empire on mass car ownership, much as Facebook did with smartphones. But the canny Swedes worry about missing out on an urban, green generation of younger customers — people who don’t see the point in learning to drive, let alone owning a car big enough for a Billy bookcase.

    Private equity investors are also betting on the no-car trend. Train and bus companies have been on the receiving end of a flurry of takeover approaches. Stagecoach and FirstGroup in the UK have been bid for, and Britain’s Basalt Infrastructure has bought Nobina in the Nordics.

    This may seem odd, given that Covid lockdowns so recently brought the transport sector to its knees. But private equity — particularly long-term infrastructure funds — sees a bright future. You can see why: local councils, fretting about pollution and congestion, are pushing cars out of cities and state investment in buses is resurgent.

    Rail may not offer exciting returns now that companies work under contract for the Department for Transport. But the new system ends the boom-bust cycle of the old franchises and offers a safe, annuity-style income for years to come. That is appealing to funds seeking dependable returns.

    The whole sector is set for a wholesale increase in its lowly stock market rating. Schroders, the biggest investor in FirstGroup, gets this and is opposing the takeover bid. It’s right to. Long-suffering shareholders must not sell out cheaply to the private equity tycoons."

    Posted 2 years ago #
  2. chdot
    Admin

    Well there’s a lot in there, some of it more ‘inevitably’ true than other bits.

    It’s almost certainly true that younger/lower income people will own/use cars less.

    Whether rail companies become ‘a good long term investment’ will depend entirely on Gov policies and subsidies.

    Of course different in Scotland…

    But underlying it all, the Times article is mostly concentrating on large urban areas/cities.

    Edinburgh is large enough to be included but still acts with ‘but motorists’

    In a UK context I don’t how unusual it is in having significant areas of housing with people wanting to travel in for work and other reasons

    ‘Edinburgh’ is resisting congestion charging and workplace parking taxes for very dubious political reasons.

    Equally it’s hard to tell how much public transport ‘isn’t good enough’ and how much it’s not properly prioritised/promoted as ‘normal’.

    Of course building houses where no bus companies are likely to provide services doesn’t help.

    Reneging on things like the Winchburgh station doesn’t help either.

    Bandwagon? Continuing disconnects and disasters.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  3. chdot
    Admin

    In addition, Edinburgh and surrounding areas would almost certainly benefit from having a ‘Greater Edinburgh’ entity - at least for transport and planning.

    Could start by giving SESTran more powers and resources.

    But

    This is the world/UK/Scotland/Lothians & Fife where resources and consequently power are concentrated in the hands of a few - Musk, Putin etc.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  4. LaidBack
    Member

    Ikea is moving away from opening new out-of-town behemoth stores to building smaller ones in city centres. Customers will get to these shops by public transport and order for home delivery.

    Cargo bikes might be the thing. Volvo won't be pleased. Their pushing their new XC40 EV hard.

    Very interesting. Thanks @SRD

    Posted 2 years ago #

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