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Not the Budget

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  1. chdot
    Admin

    Unless you are a right wing ideologue, the analysis here might make sense.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/23/kwasi-kwartengs-mini-budget-offer--britain-crises

    People on a low income with high housing costs are likely to have a worse winter than they were expecting.

    Whether “The Market” allows low cost borrowing for the Government remains to be sense.

    Note: stamp duty cuts don’t apply in Scotland.

    Posted 2 months ago #
  2. chdot
    Admin

  3. Baldcyclist
    Member

    Also won't apply in Scotland:
    Removing 45p bracket
    lowering income tax threshold to 19p.

    The NI threshhold raise hasn't been undone, but the increase has, so there's a slight 'win' there for everybody. Opposition partier were against the original change, will be interesting to see if they are against the reversal

    But this is overly skewed to the rich who are laughing.

    Not long now until they are gone.

    Posted 2 months ago #
  4. chdot
    Admin

    Who, the rich generally or Truss & funders??

    Posted 2 months ago #
  5. Morningsider
    Member

    Truss is actually the Tories Jeremy Corbyn - an unelectable ideological zealot, surrounded by some fairly shady characters. Just our luck that circumstances mean she becomes Prime Minister without having to go through an election first.

    Posted 2 months ago #
  6. chdot
    Admin

    Her ‘friends’ in the media, and on the opposition benches, are unlikely to be pointing out that JC wouldn’t have dared to propose borrowing so much money.

    Borrowing to give to the rich ought to trouble everybody.

    Seems to be cutting down the magic money forest with no prospect of regeneration in most people’s lifetime.

    Posted 2 months ago #
  7. chdot
    Admin

    Nothing like a bit of confidence…

    Pound hits 37-year low against dollar on huge UK tax cut ‘gamble’.

    https://www.ft.com/content/e4a95eac-71bc-4da9-b029-200764179d0c

    Posted 2 months ago #
  8. chdot
    Admin

    Gilts in freefall and sterling dives as Chancellor spooks investors after revealing borrowing surge and sweeping tax cuts

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11242741/amp/Gilts-freefall-sterling-dives-Chancellor-spooks-investors.html

    Posted 2 months ago #
  9. chdot
    Admin

    Investors moved out of UK government debt after the speech, sending yields sharply higher, with two-year government borrowing costing it almost 4%

    https://www.standard.co.uk/business/ftse-100-live-23-september-kwasi-kwarteng-minibudget-gfk-consumer-confidence-uk-economy-b1027593.html

    Posted 2 months ago #
  10. chdot
    Admin

    In a high-risk strategy designed to revive Britain’s stagnant economy, the new chancellor announced more than £400bn of extra borrowing over the coming years to fund the biggest giveaway since Tony Barber’s ill-fated 1972 budget

    Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said: “Today, the chancellor announced the biggest package of tax cuts in 50 years without even a semblance of an effort to make the public finance numbers add up. Instead, the plan seems to be to borrow large sums at increasingly expensive rates, put government debt on an unsustainable rising path and hope that we get better growth.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/23/kwarteng-accused-of-reckless-mini-budget-for-the-rich-as-pound-crashes

    Posted 2 months ago #
  11. crowriver
    Member

    "Jeremy Corbyn - an unelectable ideological zealot, surrounded by some fairly shady characters."

    Who increased Labour's vote to the biggest ever since Blair's landslide in 1997? Deprived the Tories of their majority? Whose policies in any other western European country wold be seen as mild social democratic reforms?

    But hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good old Centrist smear job.

    Posted 2 months ago #
  12. Morningsider
    Member

    @crowriver - sorry, that was poorly worded. I was trying to highlight the similarity in their personal approach to politics (although from very different traditions) rather than anything policy related.

    Posted 2 months ago #
  13. LaidBack
    Member

    According to the Charted Institute of Taxation, people earning more than £55,000 in Scotland now face paying more than £2000 extra in taxes than they would living south of the Border.

    Those earning up to the median annual pay in Scotland - £25,616, according to Scottish Parliament research – will pay between £22 and £124 more per year than their English counterparts.

    This being the latest item to get traction in BBC here. Paying more tax is now 'bad' and especially so in Scotland is the theme. As Kwarteng has demolished the pound our business has to pay more yet again along with endless courier admin and EU duty charges. I hear Kwarteng has connections to a hedge fund that has made a lot from this. Anyone got link?

    Posted 2 months ago #
  14. chdot
    Admin

    You mean this sort of thing?

    https://twitter.com/lowkey0nline/status/1573693248706592769

    Posted 2 months ago #
  15. LaidBack
    Member

    @chdot - yes but had seen one that said he still has connection with firm. That wouldn't be possible though as parliamentary standards would not allow it? (!)

    Edit: Apparently he has declared £10k interest in Odey Hedge Fund.
    I hadn't seen his bizarre behaviour at funeral as didn't watch it at time.
    https://twitter.com/Sangita123000/status/1573920824289120261

    Posted 2 months ago #
  16. chdot
    Admin

    Seen the video??

    Posted 2 months ago #
  17. chdot
    Admin

    Seen the video??

    Posted 2 months ago #
  18. chdot
    Admin


    Biden was articulating a different theory of economic growth – one we helped originate and call “middle-out” economics. Decades of evidence and policy experience now make it clear that, in actuality, growth is generated by those in the broad middle of the income distribution, from the 10th to the 90th deciles.

    They do the bulk of the working, saving, consuming and innovating in the economy, and if their finances are healthy, the economy will grow and be healthy too. Put another way, a robust economy of thriving middle-income families is not a consequence of economic growth, it is its cause.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/25/forget-trickle-down-what-the-uk-needs-is-middle-out-economics

    Posted 2 months ago #
  19. chdot
    Admin

    Chancellor says he and Liz Truss want to do what previous Tory governments deemed unthinkable

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/25/kwarteng-uk-economy-must-expect-more-tax-cuts-and-deregulation

    Posted 2 months ago #
  20. chdot
    Admin

    “Stagflation and eventually the need to go and beg for an IMF bailout … Truss and her cabinet are clueless,” he tweeted.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/25/city-braces-for-more-volatility-mini-budget-rocks-pound-parity-dollar-bond-tax

    Posted 2 months ago #
  21. chdot
    Admin

    4m ago
    08.29
    Government borrowing costs surge over 4% as bond prices plunge
    UK government bonds are selling off sharply in early trading – again, adding to the losses on Friday immediately after the mini-budget.

    The yield, or interest rate, on UK two-year, five-year and ten-year gilts have all surged dramatically.

    Yields (which rise when prices fall) measure the interest rate on the bond – so this shows that the UK’s cost of borrowing has jumped, just as it needs to borrow an extra £72bn this year to cover Kwasi Kwarteng’s plans.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/sep/26/sterling-record-low-tax-cuts-investors-kwarteng-truss-ftse-stock-markets-business-live?page=with:block-63314de38f0891514fe7c58c#block-63314de38f0891514fe7c58c

    Posted 2 months ago #
  22. Baldcyclist
    Member

    From article "£ hits all time low against $".

    The Euro also hit all time low the same day. In fact everything has been tanking against the $ since May last year, if you look at the DXY chart (www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/) it has been parabolic since May last year. The recent drops, are but a blip.

    This is because we are in the middle of a global economic event and the money runs the to the $ as a safe haven, global markets have crashed, inflation soaring worldwide, $ rising. All that stuff has alraedy happened, the lagging indicators, recession, unemployment, and property collapse are just beggining now worldwide.

    Rate of change metrics for commodities, and fuel have already started to flip so inflation will start to come down in next months. Wont be long till Central banks flip as consumers feel pain and they will turn on the money taps again.

    The next financial bull market will start as the recessisons still linger at the end of next year bringing about the next cycle, and Govts arround the world will take full credit for 'fixing things'.
    PS. the budget was still pants.

    Posted 2 months ago #
  23. chdot
    Admin

    Bridgewater founder: 'excessive borrowing not sustainable'

    Ray Dalio, a billionaire veteran investor and founder of Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, has explained why gilts and sterling have sold off, and expressed concern about the government’s understanding of the situation. He agrees with the IMF that the tax cuts were a mistake, and says that “excessive borrowing” is unsustainable.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/sep/28/sterling-slumps-imf-urges-uk-reconsider-tax-cuts-stinging-attack-business-live?page=with:block-633405648f084e56bac571ed#block-633405648f084e56bac571ed

    Posted 2 months ago #
  24. chdot
    Admin

    Written 5 years ago

    Brexit has thrown everything up in the air – and for organised crime, chaos is a business opportunity “It’s got worse.

    We’re not in that kind of wild, speculative period of financial capitalism of the 90s and the 00s, but the 1% continues to detach itself ever further from the rest of the world. If you look at things like the London property market, even with Brexit, this is still one of the favoured destinations for people from dictatorships or classic organised crime figures. That money is still going through London, and it’s going through London property above all else, but also some of the financial mechanisms. And McMafia culture is visible at the very highest instances of state now, whether you’re looking at the Kremlin or the White House.”

    https://amp.theguardian.com/theguardian/2017/dec/30/misha-glenny-organised-crime-uncertainty-brexit-opportunity-mcmafia

    Posted 2 months ago #
  25. LaidBack
    Member

    Our money transfer app was suspended as pound fell. We couldn't pay out in Euros as no-one would take risk.

    That's quite an achievement.

    Of course rich people don't keep much money in pounds here. That's just for ordinary people caught up in a spiral of higher interest rates and prices.

    BoE is actually trying to mitigate governemnt policy. That's been a theme up here for years.

    At least Labour & SNP agree that the wealthy should be taxed more. The IMF also agree (and maybe some Tories too?).
    If rich people leave Scotland or rUK so be it. Rich people will do what they like anyway.

    Everyone is now stressed to **** by politicians that the majority in Scotland didn't vote for.

    Posted 2 months ago #
  26. Baldcyclist
    Member

    Today feels like a good day to nibble away at some risk assets.

    What's happened over the last few days here, and in the US as well with the Fed poking it's self in the eye feels like we are begining to see some more capitulation.

    As mentioned DXY doesn't have much higher to go before reversal, $ will start to fall soon.

    The 'amusing' thing about 'the budget' is if they hadn't touched the higher rate (which is seen more about fairness than actual revenue) nobody would have batted an eye lid.

    Posted 2 months ago #
  27. SRD
    Moderator

    "nobody would have batted an eye lid."

    not sure who 'nobody' is, but uncosted giveaways raise eyebrows every time. they've removed a series of income streams and given no sense at all how they will fill the gap.

    Posted 2 months ago #
  28. Baldcyclist
    Member

    "but uncosted giveaways raise eyebrows"

    £100Bn in energy giveaways? Markets didn't flinch. Markets did flinch (a lot) at the Covid givaways, but public seemed happy.

    The recent cuts were more about reversing recent rises. Remember the outcry about increasing NI?

    It's only the unfairness of the higher rate changes that have people backs up. Govt might have said how the £40Bn was being paid for, borrowing, service cuts, that bit is fair.

    Truss told everyone what she was going to do in office, I don't know why there is surprise.

    Might get a GE out of it though> :)

    Again all the opposition have really objected to is the higher rate being unfair.

    Posted 2 months ago #
  29. chdot
    Admin

    “and given no sense at all how they will fill the gap”

    That’s so not true!

    GROWTH!!

    Of course they are not letting on until November how it’s ‘going’ to work.

    However, any discussion about how ‘growth might not be a good idea in a finite world is now next to impossible.

    Anyone doubting how difficult growth will be in a ‘real world’ should listen to some of this -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001cdr7/episodes/player

    The tragic irony of the current shambles is that Truss and co *believe* in “The Market” to an extent that is neither healthy nor rational.

    And seem unable to be able to foresee what it will do…

    Unless of course it’s all part of a plan.

    There is some evidence it might be m… -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001c65m

    Posted 2 months ago #
  30. Yodhrin
    Member

    Yes I'm sure you're right Baldcyclist, all these hedge fund managers and asset stripping bankers are purely motivated by a sense of unfairness at the thought of the government giving them a massive tax cut, that's the only reason they're running a mile from uk bonds and heavily shorting sterling.

    Posted 2 months ago #

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