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The next General Election (now over! 2024)

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  1. chdot
    Admin

    Many Conservatives concerned that push to woo motorists will alienate voters concerned about climate

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/31/backtrack-net-zero-lose-votes-tory-mps-sunak-climate-conservatives

    So Sunak has gone for the bright lights of pyrotechnics. Anything to make himself look a little different from Labour. Time to ease back on the green agenda. Why worry about 2050 when the real crunch date is 2024? The next election. After all, who in their right mind would vote for a party that was bothered about saving the planet? Fair to say that maybe Rish! hadn’t thought this one through. Hadn’t read the polling data on the popularity of green politics. That comes from letting Lee Anderson and Jonathan Gullis decide party policy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/31/rish-gaslights-the-uk-with-north-sea-plan-while-the-world-burns

    Posted 11 months ago #
  2. chdot
    Admin

  3. slowcoach
    Member

    A few points difference in the polls would give a very different result: "... we would expect Labour to win 28 Scottish seats to the SNP’s 19. The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats would win five each"
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats

    Posted 3 months ago #
  4. LaidBack
    Member

    YouGov poll probably not weighted for Scotland?

    The forecast collapse of the SNP and attacks on Humza Yousaf's leadership are standard fare for the millionaire owned London media.

    On Gaza the unionist side love to call HY a 'pretendy politician'. As if what passes for moral judgement from Sunak and Starmer is having any impact on the situation!
    That failure to take a stance on arms sales to the IDF will I think have an impact.

    Posted 3 months ago #
  5. SRD
    Moderator

    others know more about this than me, but isn't an MRP poll is supposed to be weighted by constituency? the yougov page suggests they've also looked at historic vote patterns in each constituency. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats

    "To address this, we have developed a new technique called ‘unwinding’. The unwinding algorithm looks at historical results and learns from them what the typical distribution of party vote shares tends to look like (for each party), and re-fits constituency-level shares in the posterior distribution to better reflect this variance. This has the effect of ‘unwinding’ the posterior distributions to better reflect the spread of constituency-level results at British general elections, and in turn reduces the proportionality of the swing."

    Survation explanation of MRP here: https://www.survation.com/what-is-mrp/

    Neith of those explain why the two models vary so hugely for Scottish predictions.

    Posted 3 months ago #
  6. chdot
    Admin

    July 4th (apparently)

    Posted 1 month ago #
  7. Morningsider
    Member

    Anyone needing a postal vote can apply online at:

    https://www.gov.uk/apply-postal-vote

    Posted 1 month ago #
  8. chdot
    Admin

    Posted 1 month ago #
  9. Rosie
    Member

    Putting this government and us the people out of our misery...

    Posted 1 month ago #
  10. gembo
    Member

    Summer elections favour the poor. They are back vot8ng for Labour again,

    Richard Hammond is presenting g the results show. Total Wipeout.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  11. chdot
    Admin

  12. chdot
    Admin

    “Summer elections favour the poor”

    Perhaps

    First week of Edinburgh schools holidays. All Scotland?

    “They are back vot8ng for Labour again”

    Some will be, some not.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  13. Baldcyclist
    Member

    SNP: Election! Election! Election!
    Tory's: Election!
    SNP: Aww, that's disrespectful to Scottish people! Bloody Westminster...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd11g7k3v5go?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0qcNQedrLcIC_wucfhAk0BE85Rfui6iWe8YJ0jFCrm-Q2B0yM1HFewkjg_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw

    TBF, I'm just glad to get rid of them whatever the date.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  14. ejstubbs
    Member

    All these complaints about the election clashing with holidays: have people never heard of postal votes? You don't even need to provide a reason for having one, you just need to say you want one, now and for the foreseeable future*.

    You can apply for a postal vote if you’re away on holiday or because your work schedule means you can't get to polling station. You can also choose to vote by post simply because it would be more convenient for you.

    Reference: https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/voter/apply-vote-post

    In England (AFAICS) you have to submit your application for a postal vote 15 days before the date of the election you first want to use it in. In Scotland it's only 11 days. Either way, we're not even in to June yet so there's plenty of time.

    I can't remember the last time I actually went to a polling station.

    * Correction, from 2026 a long-term postal vote for UK Parliamentary elections expires after three years. (Long-term postal votes applied for before 2023 will expire in 2026.) For Scottish Parliament and local elections you just need to refresh your signature every five years.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  15. neddie
    Member

    All these complaints about the election clashing with holidays: have people never heard of postal votes?

    It doesn't matter that some* people on holiday will be able to vote by post - postal voting is a barrier to many people (especially young and/or deprived) and the more barriers there are, the fewer people will vote.

    When fewer people vote in non-Tory areas like Scotland, that generally favours the Tories.

    *bully for you

    Posted 1 month ago #
  16. Frenchy
    Member

    All these complaints about the election clashing with holidays: have people never heard of postal votes?

    There are also concerns about managing and organising the actual election (staffing polling places and counts, for example).

    Posted 1 month ago #
  17. Baldcyclist
    Member

    "When fewer people vote"

    I suspect that when people are as unhappy as they are now, turnout will be very high regardless of the date.

    Seems to be the Tory view, is that early will be less bad because of the +ve economic data on inflation (even though no Govt really has any control over whether inflation goes up or down). They still expect to lose.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  18. ejstubbs
    Member

    postal voting is a barrier to many people

    How? Not trying to be picky or sarky, I'm genuinely interested to know how receiving a letter, filling in a form and posting it off is more of a barrier than, say, ensuring you have acceptable photo ID or - for people with mobility issues - physically getting to a polling station.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  19. neddie
    Member

    photo ID is another barrier to voting, set up by the Tories, to discourage younger and less affluent voters.

    Younger people aren't interested in organising something like voting days or weeks in advance. They just want to turn up to the polling station on the day and do the job in 5 mins. Sure, postal voting is good for people with mobility issues, but it shouldn't be made mandatory for people that have already booked their holidays. That with most of Scotland going on holiday in the first 2 weeks of July to avoid the English school holidays and associated higher costs

    Your welcome

    Posted 1 month ago #
  20. the canuck
    Member

    I was part of a discussion with some Germans about ID for voting, and they couldn't understand the fuss. But of course, ID is compulsory for everyone there, so it's not something a person has to make any effort to obtain--unlike here.

    I seriously doubt Sunak's team gave any thought at all to the Scottish holidays. I will lay odds that most people involved in the decision were men with no kids or with wives who do all the family admin. School dates are nowhere on their radar.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  21. Morningsider
    Member

    I applied online for a postal vote yesterday. Took less than five minutes. You need your national insurance number and a means of photographing your signature. Alternatively, you can fill in a form and post it.

    It's the folk that will have to process a totally unexpected mountain of postal vote applications that I feel sorry for.

    @ the canuck: Britons have a unique distrust of ID cards. I suspect due to an association in our minds with the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany and other unsavoury countries. The upshot being, we need to carry other forms of ID to access services. It makes no sense - unless you grew up reading Commando comics and watching Were Eagles Dare.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  22. SRD
    Moderator

    replying to various points:

    Scottish holidays surely not on their radar?

    Canada doesn't have ID either; probably higher % of residents with drivers license.

    Are there many constituencies in Scotland where low turnout would be enough to change a constituency from SNP or Labour (or even Lib Dem) to Tory? or help Tories keep a seat?

    serious question. I wouldn't have thought there were many that were that marginal.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  23. slowcoach
    Member

    Marginal seats: in YouGov’s MRP projection in March, for Scotland they forecast the Tories to win 5 seats, all with majorities of 3 to 11%, and to be less than 10% behind the winner in another 5 seats. So a few where Tories might benefit from small changes in votes.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  24. ejstubbs
    Member

    @neddie: Younger people aren't interested in organising something like voting days or weeks in advance. They just want to turn up to the polling station on the day and do the job in 5 mins.

    And you know this...how, exactly? Or are you just stereotyping all "younger" people (age range undefined) as feckless slaves to instant gratification?

    No-one is making postal voting 'mandatory' (your word) for people who have booked holidays already; in case you hand't noticed, we don't have mandatory voting in the UK. So people with holidays already booked have two options: apply for a postal vote, or not bother voting. The former option being one which people complaining about the timing of the election seem to either ignore, or be ignorant of.

    (And a postal vote is free, so it's not adding any cost to the likely planet-destroying flyaway holidays that many of these people will have booked.)

    I'm with Morningsider on this: pity the poor souls likely to be inundated with postal voting applications. And with that in mind I can actually foresee a potential barrier to voting if the volume of applications means that they won't be able to process them all in a timely manner, and some people end up not getting their postal voting forms before they go on their holidays.

    Out of curiosity, I did a quick check on Wikipedia and it does seem that the latest 'summer' election in the 20th and 21st centuries prior to this one was the one called by Harold Wilson for June 18th 1970 - the one he lost to Edward Heath. Elections in July/August were quite common back in the 19th century, though summer holidays were probably less of an issue in the days before universal suffrage and statutory annual leave entitlements. And apparently up until WWI elections lasted several weeks.

    So it does look as if the timing of this upcoming election is somewhat clumsy, though whether the date was chosen deliberately as form of "jerrymandering" (as Rees-Mogg incorrectly referred to the introduction of photo ID) I doubt, simply because it would suggest a degree of sophisticated insight and planning which seems to be beyond the capabilities of the current government.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  25. cb
    Member

    I think this will be the first time since 1997 that I won't be able to vote in person.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  26. SRD
    Moderator

    @slowcoach yup. those are pretty close, all things considered!

    Posted 1 month ago #
  27. chdot
    Admin

    Slowcoach & SRD

    I think such marginals are now even more unpredictable due to the presence of Reform in all seats (apart from NI).

    I suspect Reform will do less well in Scotland than some parts of England, but enough to make predictions difficult!

    Won’t win any seats, but likely to make Tories lose a few more.

    Posted 1 month ago #
  28. neddie
    Member

    The current Westminster Government have plenty of "sophisticated insight and planning" when it comes to lying, stealing, cheating and gerrymandering (to include putting up barriers to voting).

    Let's face it, that's the only way a right-wing "government for billionaires" can stay in power - it's all built on a stack of lies, and equally likely to tumble like a house of cards if the lies and deception aren't maintained

    Posted 1 month ago #
  29. chdot
    Admin

  30. LaidBack
    Member

    Fascinating (for me) piece in National on Labour's guidelines on how it campaigns in the different countries of the UK.

    "The Union flag or Saltire will not be used here. Instead they have opted for a colour pallette featuring 'Labour Red', 'Gradient Purple', 'Scotland Brand Gradient', 'White' and 'Accessible Black'.
    Their five missions are also colour-coded: 'Growth Pink', 'Green Energy Green', 'NHS Blue', 'Policing Yellow' and 'Opportunity Purple'.

    Posted 1 month ago #

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