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The next General Election

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  1. chdot
    Admin

    “

    Many Conservatives concerned that push to woo motorists will alienate voters concerned about climate

    “

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/31/backtrack-net-zero-lose-votes-tory-mps-sunak-climate-conservatives

    “

    So Sunak has gone for the bright lights of pyrotechnics. Anything to make himself look a little different from Labour. Time to ease back on the green agenda. Why worry about 2050 when the real crunch date is 2024? The next election. After all, who in their right mind would vote for a party that was bothered about saving the planet? Fair to say that maybe Rish! hadn’t thought this one through. Hadn’t read the polling data on the popularity of green politics. That comes from letting Lee Anderson and Jonathan Gullis decide party policy.

    “

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/31/rish-gaslights-the-uk-with-north-sea-plan-while-the-world-burns

    Posted 9 months ago #

  2. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling

    https://web.archive.org/web/20240331091842/https://www.thenational.scot/news/24222340.poll-see-every-scottish-seat-prediction-general-election/

    Posted 1 month ago #

  3. slowcoach
    Member

    A few points difference in the polls would give a very different result: "... we would expect Labour to win 28 Scottish seats to the SNP’s 19. The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats would win five each"
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats

    Posted 1 month ago #

  4. LaidBack
    Member

    YouGov poll probably not weighted for Scotland?

    The forecast collapse of the SNP and attacks on Humza Yousaf's leadership are standard fare for the millionaire owned London media.

    On Gaza the unionist side love to call HY a 'pretendy politician'. As if what passes for moral judgement from Sunak and Starmer is having any impact on the situation!
    That failure to take a stance on arms sales to the IDF will I think have an impact.

    Posted 1 month ago #

  5. SRD
    Moderator

    others know more about this than me, but isn't an MRP poll is supposed to be weighted by constituency? the yougov page suggests they've also looked at historic vote patterns in each constituency. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats

    "To address this, we have developed a new technique called ‘unwinding’. The unwinding algorithm looks at historical results and learns from them what the typical distribution of party vote shares tends to look like (for each party), and re-fits constituency-level shares in the posterior distribution to better reflect this variance. This has the effect of ‘unwinding’ the posterior distributions to better reflect the spread of constituency-level results at British general elections, and in turn reduces the proportionality of the swing."

    Survation explanation of MRP here: https://www.survation.com/what-is-mrp/

    Neith of those explain why the two models vary so hugely for Scottish predictions.

    Posted 1 month ago #

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