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White Paper (THE #indyref thread)

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  • Started 10 years ago by Morningsider
  • Latest reply from chdot
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  1. gembo
    Member

    Jeezy peeps this is going round in circles

    A yes COULD allow us to do things differently, e.g like the last time we were independent and we sent men and warm rugs to panama and they were left to die and the whole economy was baled out by the English. Or it COULD be better but that would require the politicians to be different, to say we are raising taxes now, we are a tax raising government because that is the source of revenue.

    It is all coulds and maybes.

    What Mark Carney said last week was This is what an independent Scotland will be - a small player in the Bank of England, I.e. Devo Max.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  2. Charterhall
    Member

    Realistically, how can Scotland hope to go it alone ? A tiny population, no industry, its only significant natural resource ever dwindling, and a big risk that the major financial services companies will pull out in the event of a yes vote. What would that leave, an economy based on tourism and whisky, is that really viable ?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  3. wee folding bike
    Member

    I'm going out on a limb here and going to suggest that you got the Darian scheme story in school.

    Well I wouldn't think it was a great idea to base decisions on things which happened 300 years ago.

    I'd suspect you haven't read the treaty of 1706. If you do you will find that Scotland didn't have a national debt. England did. The treaty mentions something called equivalents which was money paid for England to Scotland to compensate us for taking on a share of the English national debt.

    Scotland wasn't bankrupt in 1706. That's part of the too wee, too poor, too stupid story.

    If you don't like coulds and maybes the stick with the UK because Mr Osborne has promised more and deeper cuts.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  4. wee folding bike
    Member

    Scotland isn't tiny. If you rank all countries in the UN by size we're bang in the middle. We make as much in hardware and whisky as we do from oil.

    Had Westminster been smarter then the oil needn't have been a dwindling resource. Norway invested theirs in a fund. Westminster spent it. There is lots more left and we have the option of being smarter with it this time round.

    If we were really such a drain on the Union why would Westminster be so keen to hold on to us?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  5. Instography
    Member

    Which of the likely contenders to be President of the newly independent Scotland has a reforming "socialist" bone in their body?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  6. gembo
    Member

    Folds the more detail you give the less convincing things get? That is why the white paper contains no detail. (I mean detailed economic analysis). unless independent Scotland raises taxation then Osborne cuts will be as deep North of the border.? Or maybe you think John Swinneyhas a master plan. If so, tht should be a vote winner he should tell us about it.

    Darien scheme hastened the act of union. I don't think tht is disputed? Apparently a quarter of all wealth in Scotland lost in the venture? What interests me most is the recriminations that went on five years later when a completely innocent man was hanged amidst extremely parochial shenanigans down in Leith.

    You are correct tht I have not read the 1706 treaty. I saw a programme on telly about the signing of it and the scots who signed it had to hide from the mob, so clearly not a popular move at the time.

    You are incorrect about my schoolboy analysis, I was very big on geography and this did not allow me to study history, to my regret. Again, my superficial knowledge of the Darien Scheme/ Venture/Disaster is also from a programme on BBC Scotland.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  7. wee folding bike
    Member

    You've read the white paper?

    Why would cuts be as deep here? Our deficit is lower. We wouldn't need to pay for all the same things as we do just now, which was one of the errors made by the treasury last month.

    Darien was followed by the Union because the investors were bribed to sign the treaty. Entertainingly they weren't paid in gold and even the English notes they got never marched what they were promised.

    I'm not sure what a guy being hanged 300 years ago has to do with this.

    I did geography too. It's all tundra.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  8. wee folding bike
    Member

    By the way, why do you like devolution?

    I like it because I see it as a step to something better. Unlike George Robertson.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  9. Morningsider
    Member

    Insto you wag - Scotland wouldn't have a President. The plan is for Betty and Co. to remain as head of state. I'm sure all that aristocratic in-breeding (plus a generous pickling in gin) has seen of any "socialist bones" and much else beside.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  10. wee folding bike
    Member

    Well the vote is only about reversing 1707. 1603 can wait till we can vote on it.

    Kid in school asked me a question about that. Who pays for Brenda? NZ, Canada and Austrailia have shares in Brenda but I don't know if they contribute to her upkeep.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  11. crowriver
    Member

    The Darien Scheme was an attempt by some Scots nobles to emulate the imperial success of the Company of England by forming a Company of Scotland to found a colony. The colony at Darien failed disastrously because it was in the wrong place (the area is still a lethal hellhole of tropical diseases) and because England was furious at the Scots' uppitiness and refused to aid the colonists when pleas were sent to the Crown.

    Then rather conveniently the Scots nobles were bailed out by England in return for their country and the dissolution of the Scots parliament. Unsurprisingly this was not popular, it was basically a treasonous act for financial gain. "We have catch'd Scotland and would keep her fast," chortled the Speaker of the English House of Commons in 1708.

    That base political instinct has not changed much since then.

    To assert that Scotland today is too wee and too poor to be independent is not a view supported by most economists. We do not need all the expensive things that proponents of the UK seem to think essential: the nukes, the spies, the fourth largest defence budget in the world.

    If Norway is the current model for the SNP, that seems reasonable to me as a starting point. Independence is not necessarily just about the SNP's vision though. To paraphrase, "another Scotland is possible".

    A no vote is not a vote for the status quo. Things will not be the same afterwards either. It's easy to forget what happened after the rigged yes vote in 1979 failed to bring about a Scottish parliament. I remember very well what the Conservatives under Thatcher wreaked in Scotland during the 1980s. The 'permanent austerity' ideology revealed by Osborne recently shows what is in store for us after a no vote.

    As for Carney's statement, he was candid, yes. He was also clear what lay in the domain of political decisions and what the role of a central bank would be. He chooses to forget that his home country of Canada has the Quebecois independence movement. If at some future point Quebec becomes independent, does anyone seriously suggest Quebec would not use the $Canadian as currency? Similarly it is ludicrous fear mongering to suggest, as Bitter Together are doing* that Scotland would be forced out of the pound zone upon independence**. At some future point Scotland might require its own currency: that may not be a bad thing at all. I don't see being out of the euro zone hampering Norway, Sweden or Denmark. As a transitional arrangement though, using the pound seems common sense, just as newly independent Ireland did in the 1920s.

    * - I was flyered by one of their activists to this effect at the entrance to Waverley station yesterday.
    ** - This position sees an independent Scotland as a 'new' entity, therefore our use of the pound, membership of EU, NATO, UN, etc. are all void. The alternative position (put forward by the SNP amongst others) is that Scotland's status would be that of a joint successor state of the no longer extant UK and would have a stake in all the assets and liabilities of the defunct former UK. The naysayers' independence scenario, if it came to pass, would of course also liberate Scotland from the huge UK state debt.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  12. wee folding bike
    Member

    Dissolving the treaty of 1706 seems like the obvious approach to me. I don't understand why it's assumed that the rUK is a continuing state. The Union was formed by a treaty between the English and Scottish governments. The UK government didn't exist. I understand that it appears to be a continuation of the English government pre 1707 in that it was in the same place and had a large majority of English members but it was a new and separate entity from those which existed before.

    However I suspect what would really happen is some horse trading.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  13. Instography
    Member

    OK. Which of the contenders to be First Minister in one of the few unicameral legislatures in an advanced democracy shows socialistic tendencies?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  14. neddie
    Member

    Scotland has tons of natural resources:

    Fresh water; Wood (forestry); Wind, Tides & Waves for renewable energy (with loads more untapped potential); Oil & Gas; Scenery (tourism); Fertile land; Clean air.

    And tons of other resources:

    Education & legal systems the envy of the world; Good & inclusive health care; Leader in banking/finance; good Transport network*; plentiful high tech industry (silicon, defence, software/gaming & biotech); university spin offs everywhere...

    The countries in the world with the highest standards of living are those with low population density (which we have) & a lot of natural resources (which we also have).

    In an independent Scotland, high in resources, coupled with reduced burden of removing unnecessary & expensive nuclear weapons & nuclear power, I fail to see how we can go wrong.

    The only problem would be if (the new Scottish) government became too heavy, and we ended up with vast numbers of bureaucrats/state employees - but we must not let that happen!

    * with the exception of cycling & the Borders

    Posted 10 years ago #
  15. wee folding bike
    Member

    Insto, Patrick Harvie.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  16. wee folding bike
    Member

    Ohhh, and it needn't stay unicameral if you don't like that.

    Wendy and Donald set it up to be toothless and a permanent Lab/Lib coalition. Of course the US of A might have taken the checks and balances too far.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  17. gembo
    Member

    Still nobody fitting the socialist description?

    Carney reported as saying Scotland would need to partly cede national sovereignty if fiscally governed by Bank of England.

    This seems ironic to me.

    12 Scots pounds to one English in 1707. Darien was, as Archie McPherson would have said, a disaster for Scotland

    Previous behaviour is the predictor of future behaviour but obviously going back 300 years makes such comparisons a bit daft of me.

    Realistically being a small player in a currency union would not pan out well is my view.

    the SNP do not convince me economically (nor of course in other ways)

    Posted 10 years ago #
  18. Instography
    Member

    Patrick Harvie is a likely candidate for First Minister? Seriously? How's that going to happen?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  19. Instography
    Member

    I do believe I made pretty much Mark Carney's point two months ago. Is there a prize?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  20. wee folding bike
    Member

    Why does ceding some sovereignty bother you? At the moment we have no say at all. Part of something vs all of nothing.

    Still struggling to see what the exchange rate from 300 yrs ago has to do with it.

    Does that mean that Westminster does convince you economically and in other ways? Really?

    Insto, people could vote for him. Or you. Or you know, we could vote for someone better than Charlie.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  21. wee folding bike
    Member

    Probably not as big a prize as Mr Carney got.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  22. gembo
    Member

    .@insto On the money as it were

    @folds ceding some sovereignty doesn't bother me but I am not voting for independence.

    I just said drawing conclusions from 300 years ago is daft of me but finding a context or framework is tricksy. I have had a look at Slovakia and Czech Republic but that doesn't quite work. Ireland also problematic. Iceland and Denmark?

    I SUPPOSE I am thinking what happens to the junior partner when countries separate?

    off to read JG Ballard's The Drowned world now, wch is nothing to do with this tho Scotland might last longer than england when the polar ice caps melt?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  23. Instography
    Member

    OK, I see, he's in politics and in theory enough people could vote for him. Sorry, my mistake. I was thinking of things that might actually happen.

    I'm not bothered in the least by ceding sovereignty, not to Westminster nor to the EU. Not to NATO or, to be honest, all that much to Fitch, Moody's or Standard and Poors. In one sense the notion of national sovereignty is an egotistical myth and in the same vein it's worth looking askance at what Alex Salmond says about sovereignty and independence from that kind of global, intertwined perspective. He's a man who knows how entwined economies and businesses are. I mean, if I could see the incompatibility of a sterling zone and independence I'm sure it hadn't escaped Alex. And yet he says these things. He talks about having control of all the fiscal and monetary levers knowing full well that even if Patrick Harvie were First Minister, he would have nothing of the sort. So we should ask what this pseudo-independence is all about. Is it more than egotism? And if it is and we're in a Sterling Zone, with the Queen, the EU, NATO and all the supranational organisations, governmental and corporate, what kind of independence is that? You'd think anyone committed to independence would be deeply concerned if a core proposal for independence presumed giving your x10 neighbour (from whom you've just ceded) control of your fiscal and monetary policy.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  24. wee folding bike
    Member

    I suspect it's a transient thing. You know, like Ireland did. For 50 years.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  25. wee folding bike
    Member

    I have no idea what you're talking about with the junior partner thing. We are in a union of equals. So I heard anyway.

    Still don't see why you like devolution and cling to the House of Lords.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  26. Instography
    Member

    I see, so this "Sterling zone" is a transition phase on the road to full independence? Is that independence in the Euro or a different currency? Doesn't say that in the White Paper. I take it you just make this stuff up. It's not actually anyone's prospectus for independence. Maybe "Ireland" is the scripted answer to one of the FAQs.

    I didn't say junior partner. I said x10 neighbour. That's different. It's a question of moral hazard.

    And I don't cling to the House of Lords. Something else you're just making up. Did you debate at school maybe? It probably works better live where things need to move on and your opponent can't take time to explain points that someone has just tried to caricature. As you know, I haven't mentioned the House of Lords. I'd just rather not have a unicameral legislature. There's nothing anti-independence or undemocratic about that. An elected second chamber would be a good thing. I'd regard it as an essential aspect of a properly functioning democracy so I'm deeply sceptical of the SNP's motivation for proposing a single chamber. Either it's a cynical attempt to avoid an equally cynical complaint about the cost of independence or for a certain type of politician, the limited accountability in a single chamber is actually an attractive proposition. If you have a sensible defence of it that amounts to more than "Norway" I'd love to hear it. And if you can explain why an independent Scotland would want to keep (Q582) and pay for (Q583) the monarchy and the honours system (Q584 - these questions are, laughably, in the section of the White Paper called 'Building a Modern Democracy') I'd love to hear that too.

    But you talk like I'm opposed to independence. In truth you have no idea what I think about it. All you know is that I'm sceptical of two things: the currency proposals and the legislature. One hobbles independence and the other ties democracy's ankles together. Those might seem like abstract objections but they can have profound consequences. All you can conclude is that I haven't swallowed the White Paper.

    On a personal level, independence doesn't worry me at all. I'm cynical enough to not much care either way because I don't think it will make much of a difference, especially if we have a currency union with England. I'm no unionist and hardly a fat cat to fear having my pips squeaked by some future Patrick Harvie. To the extent that it would make any personal difference to me, overall I'd probably benefit from the SNP's enthusiasm for subsidising the middle classes or the other parties' reluctance to change much. They'd all toe the austerity line to keep interest rates down because they are all, fundamentally, parties of business and since my mortgage is my only albatross, low interest rates suit me fine. Commercially, all things considered, I'd get to write my own pay check. So don't presume too much.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  27. Charterhall
    Member

    All this talk of Norway is irrelevant, they were in on the oil at the start, Scotland isn't. And even less relevant is what may or may not have happened 300 years ago.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  28. wee folding bike
    Member

    Insto,

    You do know what suspect means? I can see sterling being useful in the short term but things might diverge more in the future and that would be less of an advantage. We can't go straight into the euro nor can we be bounced into it.

    I don't see why we wouldn't look at Ireland on the currency question. If we are told that something can't be done the it seems reasonable to say that it has been done before so why can't it be done now?

    I wS t actually suggestion that you cling to the HoL. I find it odd that socialists choose a parliament with700 unelected members. I could understand an abstention but not a No. Similarly I don't understand why old style international socialists would vote No. They might runaway from anything with "nationalist" in it but No is a vote for British nationalism.

    I don't see why we would want to keep honours and you might have noticed there are no SNP members in the Lords. I suspect, did you notice that word, that keeping Brenda is a short term thing which would not spook the horses. Some people seem to like her. I've nothing against the person, only the office. Other parts of the empire kept her with no great effect. The nature of her power in Scotland is quite different from that in England.

    The white paper is somewhere to start. It's not the end. If people continually shout for answers then it's reasonable to give them the best you have at the time but if circumstances change then so does the answer.

    By subsidising the middle classes do you mean things like free prescriptions? As I remember the costs aren't that great because you save on admin. I'd always thought it was odd that you got everything free in the hospital but if you need a bottle or some pills elsewhere there was a charge. More importantly free prescriptions for all means everybody benefits from NHS Scotland and nobody feels they are paying in and getting nothing out. Even I had a blood test in July to check there was nothing serious wrong.

    I don't get to write my own pay cheque, I think we've had a 1% rise in the last 5 years but pension and GTC payments have gone up as well as the general inflation.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  29. wee folding bike
    Member

    Insto,

    You do know what suspect means? I can see sterling being useful in the short term but things might diverge more in the future and that would be less of an advantage. We can't go straight into the euro nor can we be bounced into it.

    I don't see why we wouldn't look at Ireland on the currency question. If we are told that something can't be done the it seems reasonable to say that it has been done before so why can't it be done now?

    I wasn't actually suggesting that you cling to the HoL. I find it odd that socialists choose a parliament with700 unelected members. I could understand an abstention but not a No. Similarly I don't understand why old style international socialists would vote No. They might runaway from anything with "nationalist" in it but No is a vote for British nationalism.

    I don't see why we would want to keep honours and you might have noticed there are no SNP members in the Lords. I suspect, did you notice that word, that keeping Brenda is a short term thing which would not spook the horses. Some people seem to like her. I've nothing against the person, only the office. Other parts of the empire kept her with no great effect. The nature of her power in Scotland is quite different from that in England.

    The white paper is somewhere to start. It's not the end. If people continually shout for answers then it's reasonable to give them the best you have at the time but if circumstances change then so does the answer.

    By subsidising the middle classes do you mean things like free prescriptions? As I remember the costs aren't that great because you save on admin. I'd always thought it was odd that you got everything free in the hospital but if you need a bottle or some pills elsewhere there was a charge. More importantly free prescriptions for all means everybody benefits from NHS Scotland and nobody feels they are paying in and getting nothing out. Even I had a blood test in July to check there was nothing serious wrong.

    I don't get to write my own pay cheque, I think we've had a 1% rise in the last 5 years but pension and GTC payments have gone up as well as the general inflation.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  30. wee folding bike
    Member

    Ooooops. Dang flaky wifi in the Citz.

    Posted 10 years ago #

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