CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!

Why are pedestrian deaths and injuries down?

(15 posts)
  • Started 11 years ago by Wilmington's Cow
  • Latest reply from Instography

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  1. Wilmington's Cow
    Member

    Musing over lunchtime. Cyclist deaths going up (despite what Broon says), pedestrians deaths and injuries on their way down. Are 'incident' rates down?

    If they are down then why, and can we learn anything for cycling? If they're not down could it be suggested that it's not that the 'roads' are getting safer, but that technology in cars, and shapes for pedestrian collisions, are benefiting disproportionately?

    One of the reasons I ask is that in general, from walking, cycling and driving around, I do genuinely think the standard of driving is going down.

    Posted 11 years ago #

  2. crowriver
    Member

    Do you have a linky?

    Posted 11 years ago #

  3. Morningsider
    Member

    While I'm not claiming causation - there has been a fairly dramatic fall in the number of trips made on foot over the last decade or so. The statistics are a little ropey due to small sample sizes in Scotland - but the downward trend is clear. It doesn't seem unreasonable to assume that a large reduction in trips by foot would be accompanied by a decline in pedestrian deaths and injuries.

    Details:

    http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/strategy-and-research/publications-and-consultations/j251205-161.htm

    Posted 11 years ago #

  4. Wilmington's Cow
    Member

    "Do you have a linky?"

    To? Didn't the last report on Scotland's roads show ped deaths and injuries going down? The same one that came out the day after he said we didn't need strict liability in Scotland because cycling was getting safer...

    The other stuff was all questions that I don't have the answers to, so obviously no links; plus a personal opinion that the standard of driving is going down (gut feel, rather than evidence driven...).

    @Morningsider, that has a ring of logic to it.

    Posted 11 years ago #

  5. EddieD
    Member

    Cyclists are finally saying "sod this, I'm important" and actually reporting incidents?

    Posted 11 years ago #

  6. wee folding bike
    Member

    Could be fewer peds although you would hope they took account of that.

    Could be that modern cars are less damaging to peds but cyclists are hit in a different way or at different speeds where the improvements in car design are less effective.

    Always be careful when typing "account" on an iPad. It's so easy to get it wrong.

    Posted 11 years ago #

  7. sallyhinch
    Member

    Cars are safer for pedestrians too now - designed to be more 'forgiving' if they hit someone.

    The slow spread of 20mph especially around schools must help too

    Posted 11 years ago #

  8. crowriver
    Member

    @Morningsider, interesting that. Wonder where the figures for the past 5 years may be hiding?

    Anyway, given that numbers of*all* journeys by all modes (except those by train) appear to be in decline, can anyone explain to me WHY ARE THE SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT BUILDING LOADS OF MOTORWAYS EVERYWHERE?

    Posted 11 years ago #

  9. SRD
    Moderator

    Pedestrian fatalities have increased, while injuries have decreased. Both fatalities and injuries up for cyclists.

    Stats here http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/news/road-casualties-statistics-2012

    Posted 11 years ago #

  10. Kim
    Member

    I have seen a not on the Government statistics, by their own statisticians, which put the 2012 dip in pedestrian fatalities down to the bad weather which we suffer that year.

    Posted 11 years ago #

  11. Arellcat
    Moderator

    The quoting of KSI as hard numbers year-on-year is meaningless because they are not normalised to levels of activity.

    A better methodology for a fatality-related KPI for a given travel mode is this:

    KPI = F / M ; where

    F = fatalities for a travel mode / fatalities across all travel modes

    M = mileage for a travel mode / mileage across all travel modes

    and the KPI is therefore a dimensionless factor that may be compared consistently between travel modes and between years.

    I once made a spreadsheet covering 1993 to 2007 drawing on information from DfT, and bike fatalities were roughly 4.0%-5.5% of total road fatalities, but bike mileage was consistently at about 0.4% of total road mileage from cars and buses. KPI about 12.

    Pedestrian mileage averaged 2% of the total, but fatalities were about 20-30% of the total. KPI about 11.

    Motorbike mileage was about 0.5% of the total, but fatalities about 20% of the total. KPI about 40.

    Car and bus mileage was 61% of total, and fatalities about 55% of total. KPI about 1.

    Posted 11 years ago #

  12. amir
    Member

    "I have seen a not on the Government statistics, by their own statisticians, which put the 2012 dip in pedestrian fatalities down to the bad weather which we suffer that year."

    Yep - best to look at patterns over time and be careful with small frequencies

    Posted 11 years ago #

  13. Kim
    Member

    "I have seen a not on the Government statistics"

    Ops that should read "I have seen a note on the Government statistics". Sorry should have spotted that earlier.

    Posted 11 years ago #

  14. EddieD
    Member

    This maybe pure paranoia - could the level of injuries have fallen due reporting errors - when I got left-hooked a few years back and was hospitalised, I was incensed to be told by my doctor that my case notes from the hospital had "fell off bike" as the cause.

    Posted 11 years ago #

  15. Instography
    Member

    The number of pedestrians killed or seriously injured has fallen pretty consistently from 1,647 in 1994 to 501 in 2012 so it's unlikely to be reporting errors.

    The data comes from STATS19 forms completed by the police so deaths are almost completely accurately reported. Serious injuries might be under-recorded (either not at all or recorded as less severe than they should be, for all sorts of mainly legitimate reasons). Slight injuries and injuries where there is only one person involved - a cyclist falling off their bike or a pedestrian tripping on the road - are most likely to be not recorded at all.

    Posted 11 years ago #

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