Just wondering if the weekend drugs (perhaps alcopops) are kicking in in this thread.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
White Paper (THE #indyref thread)
(2915 posts)- Started 11 years ago by Morningsider
- Latest reply from chdot
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Posted 10 years ago #
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Nelly I like a Havana club seven year old and once had a havana club fifteen year old in diggers it was sublime. When I drank in the IB, circa 1988, there was an old guy used to try to sell you mince under the table. Gandalf also present on a Monday. Tommy burns suppers advertised. Changed days. Proper drink tho not alcopops
Posted 10 years ago # -
chdot, that gets my Yes vote (among other things on this thread)
Posted 10 years ago # -
Right, I'm off for some rum and Jamaica ginger beer - not alcopop, but very nice - and more breaking bad.
Gembo, sadly I am a bit more prosaic when it comes to rum - bog standard OVD my fave, but this evening a spiced Bacardi.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Nelly try an appletons from Jamaica, get it in tescos. Golden rum. Same price as ovd Scotmid has cockspur from Barbados which is lighter but dearer. Neither give me a hangover. Malt whisky more complex but also give hangover
Newsprint terminal, guardian struggling too. Tenner a month on line
Posted 10 years ago # -
A message from Wales, Please don't go.
http://bettertogether.net/blog/entry/better-together-gwell-gydan-gilyddPosted 10 years ago # -
"A message from Wales"
True.
A message from a Welsh AM
True
A message from a Conservative AM
True
BUT that's not mentioned!!
"
I campaigned for devolution in 1979 even though I was too young to vote. I’m a proud Welsh woman; some may ask why I’m not flying the flag for independence in Wales let alone Scotland?
"
Presumably she doesn't want to - and it's not party policy. Was devolution party policy in Wales then? Or wasn't she in the party?
"
Thing is, none of this makes me any less a proud Brit. Being British makes me no less Welsh.
"
Fine, that's her. Not sure how many people in Scotland would call themselves "proud Brit".
Wales never had as much devolution as Scotland. In Scotland there has been a clear wish for MoreDevo (of some sort).
The third option was kept off the indieref ballot paper. It's quite likely that the majority of people in Scotland would vote for a version of DevoXtra.
Obviously the SNP wanted to avoid that - but the other parties? They stuck with a version of 'status quo' that is constantly evolving - devolving even.
At present (according to various opinion polls) the number of people who want something other than that is growing. Some of those presumably would prefer DevoBetter, but none of the 'No' parties is able to promise anything and they are not willing/able to even come up with any agreed version of DevoABitBetter.
Of course there are people who have always wanted Scotland to be an Independent country under any circumstances (I'm sure some don't think the White Paper version is enough!)
Now some people are at least thinking about voting for the uncertainty of independence over the uncertainty of MoreOfTheSameOnlyDifferent.
Would a PostNo UK stay in the EU? Would there be more devolution for Scotland (and/or Wales)? What would replace the Barnett Formula? Is it worth hoping that Labour will win the next Westminster election and be willing/able to do ? ? (That's a question for habitual Labour voters.)
After a No vote would Scotland be BETTER, together?
Posted 10 years ago # -
I have to largely agree with Morningsider's assertion that this thread is a joy and that facts aren't going to be decisive in the debate.
In 'real' life I build financial models. So when I first started thinking seriously about this question (after a chat with the newly hatched Yes Scotland at the Meadows Festival 2011 or 2012...not sure, but Gandalf was there) I naturally first wondered if the situation could usefully be modeled. But the biggest skill in modeling is knowing when not to model and I quickly concluded that the necessary data would never be available and that the assumptions for future behaviours would be so influential that the results would essentially be guesswork. For me the decision is emotional, and given the type of person I am, even that conclusion was both disorienting and liberating.
I had a good argument last night with a pro-UK Scottish/Kiwi friend while you were all doing intravenous rum. She reckoned that growing up in a small country crushes the spirit. I countered that the country of her birth is isolated rather than small. She countered that her country gets bullied (the French sent terrorists to sink the Rainbow Warrior and then 'punished' them by imprisonment in a villa on a pacific island) and can do nothing about it. I pointed out that my country has British horror weapons parked twenty miles from its biggest city and we can do nothing about it. Emotional stuff.
Incidentally, my original question to Yes Scotland has never been answered to my satisfaction, and it is one of fact. The question is; How many new countries will there be after Scottish independence? I can see arguments for n = 1, 2 and 3.
1) iScotland is new, the UK continues unabated.
2) iScotland is new, the rUK of E,W&NI is new.
3) iScotland is new. Having nullified the 1707 acts of union the United Kingdom of Scotland and England ceases to exist. It is this kingdom that Northern Ireland is in union with after the 1801 union and the 1916 to 48 process of disunion. So Northern Ireland is left, at least for a moment as iNorthern Ireland, as its union partner has ceased to exist. The Kingdom of England (including its Principality Wales) would be back in existence.This a good, but dryish read;
https://treaties.un.org/doc/Treaties/1996/11/19961106%2005-51%20AM/Ch_XXIII_02p.pdf
Posted 10 years ago # -
OT
"But the biggest skill in modeling is knowing when not to model"
Interesting.
How does that work for traffic?
Apparently modelling in Edinburgh includes 'improving traffic flow to reduce air pollution'.
Perhaps I should start a new thread...
Posted 10 years ago # -
Garbage In Garbage Out? Is my take? Many models carried out on things that can't be modelled.? Wasting everybody's time and energy. Whereas traffic can be modelled in certain ways as certain parameters will be highly predictable eg peak flow. E.g any bus out of Balerno in the morning is fine up to the so called X44 (just misses out a few stops twixt kingsnowe and Shandon) at 7.46. After that all buses take twice as long until 9.00am when times pick up until after 9.30 when the day trippers kick in.
What I find surprising this morning is that pintail had that welsh paen to the UK posted for three hours before rebuttal. That must be a record?
Posted 10 years ago # -
@Gembo, pulling together your musings on the IB and comedians: that bar was (although no longer I think) the 'home' of the HWEUCSC, and I occasionally travelled with them to Celtic games in the 90's. On one such occasion I found myself propped up at the bar alongside the, then, honorary CSC Club President - Ardal O'Hanlon.
I suspect most of that bus will be voting 'Yes' ...
Posted 10 years ago # -
@dg145
On the money there wrt IB. I confirm the supporters club adopted the bar from 1980s onwards at least. Ardal from wealthy Dublin family iirc. International Bar in Dublin good pub, bar upstairs, music venue downstairs. Was painted red which IB in Edinburgh has never gone in for.
Posted 10 years ago # -
"Was painted red which IB in Edinburgh has never gone in for."
But do you remember the period when it was called something different?
Posted 10 years ago # -
Pre1987?
Posted 10 years ago # -
Probably early 80s.
Posted 10 years ago # -
New "Traffic modelling" thread.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Chdot asks "After a No vote would Scotland be BETTER, together?"
The immediate dividend of a No vote will be the lifting of the cloud of uncertainty that has been hanging over Scotland ever since the referendum was called. Many investments in Scotland and in Scottish companies will be waiting for this clarity.
Longer term, nobody in Westminster will want to see the independence question to rear its ugly head again, it will be in everyone's interests to learn the lessons of this sorry tale to ensure that it doesn't. That will give Scotland considerable leverage.Posted 10 years ago # -
@pintail I see our chums at better together are saying that there were some sweary Yes men giving them some stick down at leith today. Accusing the orcadian labourite of being a Tory and that she shouldn't be in leith. According to their perceptions anyhow.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Pin,
Has investment in Scotland decreased since the last election?
Posted 10 years ago # -
"The immediate dividend of a No vote will be the lifting of the cloud of uncertainty"
No doubt (for some people).
That cloud might look different after the Euro election...
Posted 10 years ago # -
Wfb, very few companies, if any, are going to risk the bad publicity of admitting that they haven't made an investment in Scotland because of the referendum. But one unavoidably transparent decision was that of Lloyds Bank to float TSB as an English company, this despite its Scottish origin. They stated that they just couldn't risk floating it as Scottish.
Posted 10 years ago # -
@gembo yes there are an awful lot of sweary Yes men about. Like the one captured on BBC news last week shouting in the street at Miliband that he should be ashamed of himself for coming to Scotland to promote the UK. All part of the environment of intimidation being sustained by the Nats.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Pin, let's try that again. You said many investments. Danny Alexander wasn't able to tell us about them, neither was Alistair Darling.
What has happened to investment in Scotland since the last election and what has happened in the UK over the same time?
Can you name a major shareholder in Lloyds?
Have you been able to link the man commenting on Mr Milliband with a Yes or could it just be someone who thinks that Labour should have turned up to vote on the Bedroom Tax? Was Yes Scotland to blame for the rude sign behind Mr Farage too or do these things happen else where for different reasons?
Posted 10 years ago # -
The man in the west is heckling ed in Motherwell not Glasgow, he is not swearing but he is very direct. He is inviting ed to go to Motherwell cross to see how the people are living down there and he says c'mon down as we are all better together. In case people can't follow his heckle, I thought very clear but quite broad.
Not sure if ed understood the words but the tone to those not used to it would say, just keep walking, just keep walking.
In the comments under the youtube someone called vicious wolf discusses tactics and suggests the lone heckler does come across as abusive and a bigger group further away would be better. Tam the bam from Motherwell is part of a group, someone is filming it and several pals applaud him at the end.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Wfb interesting that you should allude to the Govt shareholding in Lloyds, they only have that as the result of having to rescue HBOS. Two points, 1. HBOS was HQ'd in Edinburgh - would an independent Scotland have been able to achieve that bale out (along with RBS of course), 2. the failure of HBOS and RBS was down to inadequate risk management, whenever anyone flagged the risks of their respective positions those at the top dismissed them. Just like Salmond and the Yes campaign are dismissing the risks of independence. If only Andy Hornby and Fred Goodwin had listened to the whistleblowers, if only those supporting Yes would listen to the people they dismiss as scaremongerers.
Posted 10 years ago # -
"If only Andy Hornby and Fred Goodwin had listened to the whistleblowers, if only those supporting Yes would listen to the people they dismiss as scaremongerers."
Indeed to both (not that they are comparable).
If Scotland had already been independent, perhaps those banks would have been run differently and, conceivably (though unlikely - 'then'), better regulated.
Perhaps those banks would have moved to London and rUK would have had to do the 'rescue' on its own.
Perhaps Scotland would have had the same experience as Iceland - unpleasant, but it seems to have survived.
If sure that IF there is a Yes vote some of the 'scare stories' will come true. Some things will be worse than the 'optimists' imagine (even if they are bothering to think about it).
I'm also sure that if there is a No vote there won't be some 'frozen in time' version of the 'status quo' - nor any prospect of 'things can only get better'!
These (and many other things) will have to be considered by people in Scotland when (if) they vote.
By definition (assuming the polls continue on the current trajectory) about half the population won't get their choice. Whichever 'side' wins, I don't expect a mass exodus of people (or businesses).
But then perhaps half didn't get the preferred 'DevoSomething' on the ballot paper.
IF there is a Yes, it is very likely that the 'separation talks' will be fraught and take more than 18 months. The parallel talks to stay in, or join various international organisations might be difficult too.
Some people will have second thoughts - whatever the results.
To suggest that the future will be amazing/perfect/just fine/disastrous is misleading (whoever is doing it).
There are 'unknowns' about 'independence' and also unknowns about 'staying together' - next UK Government, in or out of Europe, the world economy, climate change etc. etc.
The only (probable) certainty is that there is a referendum in September that will change things.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Speaking of political 'intimidation', it must be a bit dicey being pro-independence round where WFB bides.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Scary stuff. Depends which bit you stay in. Coatbridge for instance swings the other way. Whereas lark hall big devotees of grand master flash and melly Mel? Lark hall truly fails to live up to the name. Predictive text splitting the actual place name larkhall.
Posted 10 years ago # -
And speaking of intimidation, I see that the Sunday Herald commissioned Alasdair Gray to design its front page this morning, the man who describes the English in Scotland as either settlers or colonists. But rest assured it tells us, our reporting will still be impartial. That's as believable as Salmond's white paper itself.
Posted 10 years ago #
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