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Traffic modelling

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  1. chdot
    Admin

    This started on the White Paper thread.

    (This is CCE)

    Me -

    "
    OT

    "But the biggest skill in modeling is knowing when not to model"

    Interesting.

    How does that work for traffic?

    Apparently modelling in Edinburgh includes 'improving traffic flow to reduce air pollution'.

    Perhaps I should start a new thread...

    "

    Gembo -

    "

    Garbage In Garbage Out? Is my take? Many models carried out on things that can't be modelled.? Wasting everybody's time and energy. Whereas traffic can be modelled in certain ways as certain parameters will be highly predictable eg peak flow. E.g any bus out of Balerno in the morning is fine up to the so called X44 (just misses out a few stops twixt kingsnowe and Shandon) at 7.46. After that all buses take twice as long until 9.00am when times pick up until after 9.30 when the day trippers kick in.

    "

    Posted 10 years ago #
  2. chdot
    Admin

    "Whereas traffic can be modelled in certain ways as certain parameters will be highly predictable eg peak flow"

    Yes, but...

    The point of traffic modelling is (or should be these days - in Edinburgh) to discourage motor traffic and encourage ped/cycle.

    Apart from any real/perceived bias towards motor vehicles, the 'driver' seems to be more the fear of air polution legislation rather than creating conditions for more walking/cycling.

    I am not even convinced that slow/stationary cars cause 'more' pollution, especially with more vehicles that turn their engines off.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  3. wingpig
    Member

    Without seeing the data we're having to guess that the council's models involve such quantities of vehicles that popular key junctions will continue to require multiple lanes, to act as temporary reservoirs to prevent gridlock, hence the 'lack of space' excuses for segregated facilities on Leith Walk: the greater capacity of a given area of road for vehicles which are stationary rather run moving might explain why more (any) segregated space at junctions is less likely to be provided.

    Posted 10 years ago #
  4. crowriver
    Member

    I wonder if it would be useful to question the assumptions of the traffic models? Or perhaps some independent analysis of the models?

    Certainly it may be possible to request copies of the data and evidence used, assumptions made in predicting traffic flows, etc. There are statisticians, mathematicians etc. on this fotum and in Spokes who could analyse the datasets to spot any biases or inaccuracies.

    If CEC officials refuse to release the data, perhaps an FOI is in order?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  5. amir
    Member

    You would need validate both data and models. It's likely to require specific expertise in traffic modelling as opposed to more general expertise in statistical or mathematical modelling (at least without a degree of reading up).

    Posted 10 years ago #
  6. crowriver
    Member

    Meanwhile, in that there London (2010):

    "The latest version of Transport for London’s modelling guidance talks explicitly for the first time about including pedestrian and cyclist considerations when designing signalised road junctions.

    The newly-published third version of TfL modelling guidance includes new advice on modelling pedestrian and cycling traffic, as well as air quality. Transport for London (TfL) has published the third version of its traffic modelling guidelines intended to provide updated advice to support TfL and London boroughs in managing the road network to ensure smooth traffic flow across the capital."

    http://www.rudi.net/node/22276

    The guidance is here:

    http://www.tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/traffic-modelling-guidelines.pdf

    Does Edinburgh's traffic modelling take full account of pedestrians and cyclists? Or does it focus on air quality above all?

    Posted 10 years ago #
  7. crowriver
    Member

    From the TfL guidance:

    7 Cyclist Considerations
    7.1 Introduction
    The number of cyclists in London is growing, especially during peak periods, and on significant cycle commuter routes often exceed 10% of total vehicle flow*. A growth in cycling is integral to the Mayor’s vision for London so it is important to consider the role and impact of cyclists upon the network. The magnitude of impact is normally a function of the number of cyclists as a percentage of total traffic.
    The traffic modeller should consider carefully the effect of a proposed scheme on cycling (and any growth in cycle demand) before selecting the best software for the modelling exercise.

    7.2 Junction Design
    Schemes are advantageous to cycling if they help cyclists to maintain a steady speed and a direct course without interruption or obstruction from a position where they can be seen by drivers and pedestrians. For this reason the cyclist user experience can benefit from specialist provisions within a scheme. Cycle safety may be improved through the use of Advanced Stop Lines (ASLs), widened carriageways or dedicated cycle-lanes. In schemes where specialist provisions are proposed it is important to model the impact that these will have on all road users including public transport.
    ASL’s allow cyclists to position themselves at the front of queuing traffic where they are able remove themselves from conflict with general traffic. Where a scheme predicts a large number of cyclists an ASL can be assessed by traffic modelling. Consideration should be given to providing cycle feeder lanes to ASLs which allow easy access and safer cyclist progression within the carriageway.
    Further guidance on cycle design can be found in Chapter 4 of the London Cycling Design Standards*.

    7.3 Inclusion of Cyclists
    The volume of cyclists has a direct impact on the ability of traffic models to accurately represent their influence on network performance. As volume increases, their impact on general traffic behaviour generates issues that can require detailed assessment.
    Where the volume of cyclists exceeds approximately 20% of the traffic volume on any one approach they may have a disproportional effect on modelling results and their influence may need further attention. For this reason it is encouraged to ensure classified traffic surveys explicitly include cyclists.
    Micro-simulation traffic modelling software is often capable of modelling basic cyclist behaviour. Care should be taken to ensure any model accurately represents both cyclist speed and vehicle overtaking behaviour. Where an engineer uses deterministic traffic modelling software the modeller can only reflect the aggregate impact of cyclists by directly modifying parameters which influence junction performance.

    * - London Cycling Design Standards – A guide to the design of a better cycling environment, London Cycling Centre of Excellence, Transport for London, 2005.

    Posted 10 years ago #

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