UKIP => yes to independence? « CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum

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UKIP => yes to independence?

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Started 11 years ago by Darkerside
Latest reply from kaputnik

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Darkerside
Member

I find it slightly odd that the first place I come to for well-reasoned political commentary is a cycling forum...

A week ago I was solidly in the ‘better together’ camp on independence. However, having seen the swings to the far right in England, Wales, and (to a far more alarming extent) France, I'm not so sure any more.

SNP seem to soak up a lot of votes that would otherwise go to UKIP, BNP, FN, etc. Does that gain in political security outweigh the (in my opinion) economic troubles that would also come about as a result of splitting from the UK?

I’m aware that I’m trivialising the argument down to two very simplistic points. If anything, at least last night has made me start looking again at how to vote later this year.

Anyone else fancy sharing their thoughts?

Posted 11 years ago #
chdot
Admin

"I find it slightly odd that the first place I come to for well-reasoned political commentary is a cycling forum"

This is CCE...

Not sure if a new thread is necessary.

You may care to post this on the existing thread...

Or not...

Posted 11 years ago #
sallyhinch
Member

Disappointed that Scotland is still sending a UKIP MEP to Brussels though. I had hoped the Greens would do better.

Posted 11 years ago #
I were right about that saddle
Member

@Darkerside

If you can read French, the FN's manifesto is worth casting an eye over;

http://www.frontnational.com/pdf/Programme.pdf

There are some very right wing ideas, but some that are more like the demands of Occupy Wall Street. Notably, they propose a Glass-Steagal like separation of retail and investment banks. That is a policy that everyone in favour of democracy and liberal society should back. I very much hope that iScotland will adopt the policy.

The FN, unlike UKIP, are a mature party with a very well thought through programme. Some of it is abhorent, some of it not, some of it right wing, some of it not at all.

Posted 11 years ago #
Morningsider
Member

It's an interesting question. People in Scotland already have a nationalist party to vote for (although a pro-EU one). People in England only have UKIP as a nationalist alternative (I'm not saying UKIP and the SNP have much in common - except nationalism). How many people voted for UKIP as an alternative to the established parties and how many are genuinely anti-EU? Perhaps the result from Scotland gives us an idea, as despite having the SNP to vote for, over 10% of Scottish voters still voted for UKIP. Would this be replicated down south if there was an English equivalent of the SNP, who knows - but I think it is reasonable to assume that not every English UKIP voter is driven by anti-EU feeling and that anti-EU (immigrant?)fervour is not as widespread as some would have us believe.

If the tories get in at the next general election and there is an EU referendum then my gut feeling is we would stay in the EU, as the jobs argument (backed up by big business cash, much from "the city") would likely swing things round to the pro-EU view.

I suppose how to vote in September depends on your attitude to risk - vote yes and possibly face the risks of independence. Vote no and face the risks of a possible EU referendum. Interesting times!

Posted 11 years ago #
Dave
Member

Good topic. I'm definitely in the undecided camp now.

It would stick in my craw to vote for independence as the SNP in general have blown it as far as I'm concerned. Still, obviously it's infinitely preferable to UKIP.

One of my concerns is that the Tories will swerve to the right from here on in, and I'm not a fan of closet (or not so closet) racism, before we get onto any of the other policies in question - to say nothing of leaving the EU.

I can only see indy as a massive economic misstep but it can't be denied that we'd be better enfranchised and shed a lot of loonies.

Difficult.

Posted 11 years ago #
Darkerside
Member

@Iwrats — I tried, but my very rusty GCSE French wasn't up to the task! I can also comment that their margins are too narrow.

Morningside has managed to capture my thoughts better than I did. If you assume that there will be a long-term swell in nationalist voting due to austerity etc, would you rather be with a country that leans towards SNP, or a union that goes with UKIP?

Posted 11 years ago #
Darkerside
Member

The instant conservative right-swing also worried me. Of the big three down south, only the LDs really stuck to their principles despite clear indications that it would cost them votes. Whether being steadfast but without any influence because noone voted for you is better than twisting in search of support is debatable...

The answer to "people didn't vote for us" is surely "we should work harder to persuade people that we are right", rather than "we should change to match the prevailing opinions".

Posted 11 years ago #
I were right about that saddle
Member

@Darkerside

I can't quite bring myself to translate the FN's manifesto!

If there was ever a choice between UKIP and the SNP, I'd go SNP. UKIP are a totally unproven one-man band with many dubious hangers-on, the SNP a mature party of government, if a bit authoritarian for my tastes.

The learning for me is how the media traduce and puff up their chosen groups. The BBC really needs to take stock of its political reporting.

Posted 11 years ago #
SRD
Moderator

This is a good read: http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/local-election-results-2014-aav.html

Posted 11 years ago #
SRD
Moderator

"If there was ever a choice between UKIP and the SNP, I'd go SNP. UKIP are a totally unproven one-man band with many dubious hangers-on, the SNP a mature party of government, if a bit authoritarian for my tastes."

I would add 'with some good people inside".

Posted 11 years ago #
PS
Member

One of my concerns is that the Tories will swerve to the right from here on in

The real bind the Tories are in is that they do not have enough "natural" voters to win an election, so they have to widen their appeal somehow.

After UKIP's performance in the euros, the old school tories will put the pressure on to swing to the right, but there is a huge risk for the party that that will just lose them the middle ground, where the vast majority of votes are to be found. A swing to the right might well make the tories even less likely to win the next election (and possibly alienate even more of the electorate from ever even thinking about voting Conservative again)...

There are myriad reasons for people voting UKIP; I suspect "a plague on all your houses" is right up there with "I'm anti-immigration".

Posted 11 years ago #
SRD
Moderator

" I suspect "a plague on all your houses" is right up there with "I'm anti-immigration"."

I just don't understand why anyone thinks that UKIP is any different.

Posted 11 years ago #
Stickman
Member

"I just don't understand why anyone thinks that UKIP is any different."

Most don't, but they see the effect that it has on the established parties. Much of the UKIP vote will be a reaction to being specifically told not to vote for them.

Posted 11 years ago #
DaveC
Member

SRD typed "If there was ever a choice between UKIP and the SNP...",

Thank goodness there is more of a choice! When I lived in Bury St Edmunds, one year we had town council elections. There were two choices avaiable to vote for. Tory or the 'Abolish the town Council' party. I was struck first, by the lack of any other main stream parties.

When people say things like 'if there were only two choices..' Be thankful there are other choices. If there were only two, you'd have more to worry about than just two boxes to choice from!

Strangely enough, the 'Abolish The Town Council' party had also not done their homework, as they discovered after they were elected, they didn't have the power to abolish the town council and that only an act of the Home Office Minister (or so the rumour went), could abolish the town council. They were left to 'govern' the council and be pilloried for their lack of any sort of action, a bit like the UKIP part in Europe I believe.

Posted 11 years ago #
PS
Member

I just don't understand why anyone thinks that UKIP is any different.

I'm not sure much thought is put into it, to be honest.

Democracy's a tricky thing. It's difficult to formulate a response to this which can't be boiled down to "some people are too stupid to be allowed to vote". It's also there in the media bias claims ("I'm smart enough to form my own opinions and see through the BBC/Fox News/TheScotsman/TheHerald's bias, but most people aren't so it's not on").

Posted 11 years ago #
DaveC
Member

"some people are too stupid to be allowed to vote".

The problem I have with this is who decided who is too stupid? We'd be back to suffrage.

Posted 11 years ago #
SRD
Moderator

"some people are too stupid to be allowed to vote".

A freirian response would be that our society and in particular our educatinal system has failed people. This is a bit debate in my professional circles - should a country like Eritrea worry about elections and constitutions or focus on feeding and educating people first?

One answer is that it is not about people being 'stupid' or 'ill-informed' but about their feeling excluded - often by functional illiteracy from the whole process.

Obviously some people do chose parties that i find abhorrent, but, for instance, how do we explain the low turnout in Muirhouse? lowest in West edin.

I'm pretty convinced that there are ways of getting people involved in policy decisions - even quite abstruse ones. less convinced that 'voter education' does much good.

Posted 11 years ago #
wee folding bike
Member

The N in SNP doesn't actually stand for nationalist. Even the msm get that wrong sometimes

Posted 11 years ago #
gibbo
Member

SNP seem to soak up a lot of votes that would otherwise go to UKIP, BNP, FN, etc.

IS that true?

I'd be interested in seeing a breakdown of the UKIP votes in Scotland and who those voters voted for last time.

In England, UKIP have taken a lot of votes away from Labour (anti-immigration working class people), not just the Tories.

My guess for Sotland would be:

Labour <-> SNP (i.e. people going both ways.)
Lib Dems -> Labour and SNP
BNP -> UKIP
Labour -> UKIP
Socialists -> Labour

The only parallels between UKIP and the SNP is the desire for self-governance.

Aside from that, they're on very different sections of the political spectrum, very different views on immigration (and, of course, very different views on the EU).

Posted 11 years ago #
amir
Member

As always, I am completely disappointed about how badly the main parties present their cases about important issues (such as Europe, climate change ...). They just seem to avoid tackling the issues head on (perhaps due to within-party conflicts). The media don't help either.

Posted 11 years ago #
wingpig
Member

'Democracy's a tricky thing. It's difficult to formulate a response to this which can't be boiled down to "some people are too stupid to be allowed to vote".'

'One answer is that it is not about people being 'stupid' or 'ill-informed' but about their feeling excluded - often by functional illiteracy from the whole process.'

I wonder if there's any way to increase engagement without further complicating the whole process. The "what exactly does my vote count for?" thing is still overshadowed by the party system, where you can only choose for whom you vote, not for what they actually end up doing when empowered. Would it be more truly proportional for the parliamentary voting of a particular regional representative to be allocated weighting according to the proportion of the electorate which atually voted for them, including a 'blank' component to represent the non-voters? As well as voting for people/parties, would including a check-box section on a voting slip to allow voters to specify which policies of the person/party they agree with allow for election of people without necessarily allowing them to have free reign to implement whatever disagreeable whim takes their party's fancy? Where an extremist party has a couple of nuggets of well-actually-maybe-that-would-make-sense amongst their inflammatory yapping it would allow people voting for them to specify that they're only voting for them on the "disagree with the mainstream parties on certain points" points without accidentally also agreeing to the "load all [members of grouping based on spurious/outdated perception of 'differentness'] into a boat whilst they sleep and push them into the sea then set it on fire" stuff.

I wonder how many non-voters were people who really wanted to vote but physically couldn't, possibly due to unanticipated removal from the vicinity of their polling station, possibly due to either having to work all the hours of voting, possibly through altruism/compunction/financial need, who could be said to very much deserve representation of their needs.

Posted 11 years ago #
I were right about that saddle
Member

"A freirian response would be that our society and in particular our educational system has failed people."

I'll need to look up Freir, but oh yes, we have failed ourselves. Messianic thinking abounds. Basic analytical thought appears to be heretical.

Posted 11 years ago #
acsimpson
Member

I have a feeling that SNP may suck up some of the people likely to otherwise vote UKIP. Those who have the mindset that we must become independent as England/EU. Currently they see England as being the entity which requires most of their negative energy but post independence surely there is a risk they would change and focus that energy on the EU.

I'm sure someone here said that post independence SNP are likely to see their support fragment and I would suspect UKIP like most other parties to gain from this.

Posted 11 years ago #
SRD
Moderator

Apologies for the wikipedia links. the point about connections between individual circumstances and politics/social context is what I was thinking about.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paulo_Freire

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_pedagogy

"Freire heavily endorses students’ ability to think critically about their education situation; this way of thinking allows them to "recognize connections between their individual problems and experiences and the social contexts in which they are embedded."[6] "

Posted 11 years ago #
wee folding bike
Member

ac,

Hmmmm, UKIP and SNP policies are fairly diametrically opposed on pretty much everything.

Posted 11 years ago #
acsimpson
Member

WFB, They may well be diametrically opposed. But in a world of soundbites a percentage of voters won't look past the headline of what a party stand for I don't find it too hard to imagine that a number of voters would be willing to swap from one to the other in the future.

Independence from England and Independence from the EU.

Posted 11 years ago #
wee folding bike
Member

ac,

On the EU thing I agree. One of my aunties is very Yes but isn't a big fan of the EU. She does read to the bottom of the page though.

Posted 11 years ago #
chdot
Admin

Wots all the fuss about?

Only 3.49% of the Scottish electorate voted for UKIP.

Posted 11 years ago #
chdot
Admin

@Darkerside said -

"The instant conservative right-swing also worried me. Of the big three down south, only the LDs really stuck to their principles despite clear indications that it would cost them votes. Whether being steadfast but without any influence because noone voted for you is better than twisting in search of support is debatable...

The answer to "people didn't vote for us" is surely "we should work harder to persuade people that we are right", rather than "we should change to match the prevailing opinions"."

I'm no fan of Nick but I think it's pathetic the way that (some of) the people in 'his' party are 'demanding' he resigns for sticking to principles that are/have become unpopular.

It's easy to disagree with such policies/principles and the (fact of) involvement in the Coalition, but I had hoped that elected politicians in that party believed in principles!

Seems clear they (individually) just 'want to be elected'!

And of course elected in such numbers that they have an overall majority.

Dream on.

If the LDs disappear (as will the BNP presumably?) might be because of lack of principles - and because they have reached a point of no point.

In England they might do better to try to be seen as 'left of the Labour Party', but up here (partly because of the existence of the SNP) they have just become 'unpopular without much purpose'.

After a No vote they ought to spring to life as (UK wide) the advocate of 'federalism', but I doubt if they will have the energy or credibility.

Posted 11 years ago #

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