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Carlton Reid (@carltonreid)
24/11/2014 15:28
DfT’s travel model to 2040 shows decline in all transport modes except driving. Obesity/congestion/pollution timebomb
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CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
Travel expectations for 2040!!
(23 posts)-
Posted 10 years ago #
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Self-fulfilling prophesy. Of course, on the current policies north and south of the border, we face carmaggedon.
Posted 10 years ago # -
It's only a model. All they do is take recent history and project it forward with some assumptions about some of the variables involved. To treat like some sort of divine certainty misses the point that most of the variables are amenable to intervention.
Posted 10 years ago # -
@Insto, the point though is that government bases its investment decisions on these models.
So, look forward to more trunk road schemes everyone!
Posted 10 years ago # -
Indeed but they don't have to.
Posted 10 years ago # -
"Indeed but they don't have to."
That's more or less my line on the 2030 thread.
But in spite of my (apparent) optimism there, I really don't know how to actually stop Westminster and Holyrood politicians just doing 'more of the same'.
In reality of course the problems are perhaps more related to the entrenched (attitudes of) their civil servants...
Posted 10 years ago # -
From the footnote to the parliamentary answer on the link:
The NTM Road Traffic Forecasts should not be viewed as what we think will actually happen in the future, or what we want the future to look like. They are based on our understanding of the way people make travel choices, the expected path of the key drivers at the time the forecast is made and assume no change in government policy beyond that already announced.Hopefully officials, policy makers, opinion-formers, punters et al look at those numbers and say "making no change to government policy would represent a pretty crappy future - time we did something about it", no doubt with the caveat "without upsetting the mythical Mondeoman (or whatever is today's car of choice-man)".
Posted 10 years ago # -
I wouldn't get overly excited about this, even if I lived in England. It's just a manifestation of modelling as confirmation that nothing can possibly change, which kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise. The profitability models of the big banks in early 2008 probably looked quite similar.
As I understand it the road infrastructure in the South East of England is pretty much saturated. Private motoring being the highest status transport mode it's surely only a matter of time before access to it is rationed by some economic mechanism.
Posted 10 years ago # -
Well, Keef "yomper" Broon is doing his bit to make the prophesy come true for Scotchlandia...
"It is the latest stage in the £500m M8 M73 and M74 motorway improvements project.
Transport Scotland said the work would cut journey times at peak times by around 20 minutes."http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39577881
£500 million for a 20 minute shorter drive to Glesca! Whooppee! Carmaggedon is 20 minutes nearer than before!
Posted 8 years ago # -
Transport Scotland said the work would cut journey times at peak times by around 20 minutes....
...for about a year until induced demand puts journey times back where they were. There will be more journeys but they will take the same time. Bet you.
Posted 8 years ago # -
In other news today:
"Humza Yousaf announces A82 summit after calls for urgent action in The National"
"TRANSPORT Minister Humza Yousaf has called a summit on the A82 just a day after The National highlighted a looming infrastructure crisis in Lochaber with new smelter expansion plans and retail development. He put the A82 on the top of his agenda by calling a meeting in June to bring together the various groups that have an interest in the operation of the trunk road which links the central belt with the North West and the Western Isles."
A summit, no less! Good to see the Indy supporting press is also pushing for more trunk road expansion and enhancement! Carmagegedon For All in an independent Scotland! Yippee!
Posted 8 years ago # -
Posted 8 years ago #
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Carmagegedon For All in an independent Scotland! Yippee!
Where do you think your preferred travel agenda will get a better hearing? iScotland or BrexitUK?
Posted 8 years ago # -
DfT’s travel model to 2040 shows…
Asusming the model's output for 2040 is correct, perhaps the DfT would care to compare with 2017 the Year+2 prediction its model made two years ago.
Posted 8 years ago # -
This seems to be the problem (my bold) -
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Aluminium Works / Lochaber Smelter The alumiunium wortks in Fort William is rail served. It currently receives bauxite by rail. Although the aluminium produced does not travel by rail at present it has for much of the works existence.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"Where do you think your preferred travel agenda will get a better hearing? iScotland or BrexitUK?"
By the looks of it, neither at the moment. More's the pity. :-(
Posted 8 years ago # -
Does the aluminium travel by sea instead? (We can try to be optimistic...)
I seem to recall that in recent days the rail line was closed due to a landslip? So is this all just a temporary "blip" or is there a structural issue needing Humza's "summit"?
Posted 8 years ago # -
Oh yeah, this. I know, I know, it doesn't actually mention roads, but I do find the use of the word "drive" to be unintentionally revealing: how else are the tourists getting to Killearn or Applecross I wonder? I suppose once they've ticked them off the list, a quick zoom up the A87 and across the Skye bridge so beloved of Minister Broon...
"King Arthur film views inspire magic Scottish tourism drive"
"Visit Britain said films and TV were powerful motivators for travel, with visitors seeking out places they have seen on screen."
Posted 8 years ago # -
The line to Fort William wasn't closed at any point. The line around Maryhill that the passenger trains go had a landslip and instead of arranging route conductors* as far as Dalmuir (sending trains via Springburn and Qn St LL) Abellio just flatly gave up and ran buses the whole way to Crianlarich.
This was one of those railway problems that fell under 'If there was a will there was a way'
* A route conductor tells the driver where to speed up and slow down on a line they don't normally drive
Posted 8 years ago # -
By the looks of it, neither at the moment. More's the pity. :-(
Well I disagree. Scotland has and I hope will have a fairer electoral system which means our representatives must listen to us a bit harder. Look at the Green MSPs there now. Also, perhaps we might be under EU clean air rules?
The problem right now is that people disagree with us and want motorways. We'll have to persuade them that's not a sustainable position, which I don't think will be possible in the Asian style society which seems to be the purpose and goal of those committed to leaving the single market, customs union and ECJ jurisdiction.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"The problem right now is that people disagree with us and want motorways."
Some do, and always will.
Most?
Most after given a whole range of facts/scenarios about how things could be done/money spent differently?
A real problem is that SG - and perhaps more importantly TS - thinks that 'people want (more) roads' AND isn't willing to offer different.
People want better roads - fewer potholes etc. Oh, but of course that's mostly LAs' problem...
Posted 8 years ago # -
https://iea.org.uk/blog/rail-versus-road
I suppose it depends on what type of traction is used, trains can be diesel or electric as can cars bus and in the future possibly trucks. In respect to climate change, or local pollution may not be a lot in it if compare bus to train/tram.
Posted 8 years ago # -
@Ed1, that is the most "financialised" analysis I've seen on transportation. Also, the assertion that road transportation "delivers a healthy profit to the exchequer" needs to be seriously challenged. It does not for example take account of externalities such as pollution, and the costs this exacts on society as a whole, let alone the healthcare spending necessary to deal with the effects of pollution.
The paradox of mobility:
https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/paradox.html
Posted 8 years ago #
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