http://www.cyclingindustry.news/guest-comment-car-makers-in-the-cycling-biz-wake-up-bike-world
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
"The bike business is about to be disrupted on a grand scale"
(37 posts)-
Posted 7 years ago #
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"My 2011 Toyota is obsolete."
This is great to hear. I must upgrade!
Posted 7 years ago # -
I don't know if all consumer products have evolved since the 1950s as much as mobile phones. The shoes and clothes I wear, the chair and desk I work at, are technologically still very much the same as 50 years ago, although some material and styles have changed. My shoes are not "connected, talk to the [shoes] around them, call for help when [I bump my toes]".
Interesting article, and makes some good points. E-bikes will change the industry a lot. But then, perhaps he also underestimates some of the existing changes? Bikes that are "connected, talk to other bikes" - well, there is Strava, bike computers and various bike apps. The difference to cars is just that in cars the electronics is deeply integrated into the main function - a modern car engine, modern brakes and modern exhaust pipes etc. simply wouldn't work without being controlled by a computer system more complex than the Apollo programme. A bike engine (our legs) simply can't be connected / controlled by computers in the same way.
As long as we define bikes as human-powered vehicles, the power has to get from the legs into the wheel efficiently and that poses quite a few fundamental restrictions on the design. Chairs also still follow the same basic design as hundreds of years ago, and alternative designs (kneeling chairs, balls, standing desks) are useful for certain niches, but haven't taken over.
In a sense, what makes the bicycle so attractive as a transport solution is that it is so simple and doesn't require much technology, although GPS and bike computers / apps can be added easily.
Posted 7 years ago # -
This is why you can go into a music shop today and buy a Fender Telecaster that is near as dammit the same as the one they were making 60 years ago, and you have a darn sight more chance of seeing one on stage than someone wielding a 2016 incarnation of the Roland G-707.
Sometimes technology and simple things just don't sit well together because the tech tries to fill a need that isn't really there for most people.
Posted 7 years ago # -
"As long as we define bikes as human-powered vehicles, the power has to get from the legs into the wheel efficiently and that poses quite a few fundamental restrictions on the design."
Yes but a lot of the article was about the industry, and how a major part of it has been chasing low-wage production for about the 30 years at the expense (he suggests) of much innovative - except (to some extent) the carbon/highend racer market.
His focus is on the (potential) mass market, and his argument is that a 'gamechanger' will/might be electric bikes (been 'coming' for about 15 years).
IF any car companies get serious about this new market (so far bikes with 'car' names on have just been badge engineering) then they won't need to have anything to do with the traditional bike industry or its distribution channel.
Posted 7 years ago # -
I think quality wise the author has a point. Even for a cheap car you would expect it to last several years even if you put in the same miles as dearer models. I once bought a very cheap bike from Halfords and the gears were rubbish and it was only fit for the bin after less than 2 years unless I spent more on repairs than I paid for the bike!
Posted 7 years ago # -
But his model breaks down when we look at places where there is still a mass market for bikes as transport, i.e.. China, India, and in Europe Netherlands, Denmark, to a lesser extent Germany.
The basic bike that people ride in these countries hasn't changed much since the 1930s English roadster. Okay, there are enhancements like drum brakes, more efficient dynamo lighting. Some have electric assist, especially in Asia. But apart from specialist cargo bikes/trikes the mass transport bike has been pretty similar for nearly a century.
Mass take-up of electric bikes might drive innovation as he says. But then again it might not, or might do so incrementally. A quick search on 'Bosch bicycle' reveals some pretty conventional, if electric assisted, steeds.
Posted 7 years ago # -
"But his model breaks down when we look at places where there is still a mass market for bikes as transport"
No it doesn't he is talking about places with high car use (which may or may not still have 'mass cycling').
"A quick search on 'Bosch bicycle' reveals some pretty conventional, if electric assisted, steeds."
That's his point - any gamechanger (if it happens) won't be coming from the bicycle industry.
Posted 7 years ago # -
i like the idea of some auld boomer keeping pace with me up the queensferry road, on an electric assist bike
i could shout "judas !" and see if they clock the dylan reference
but this is all idle futurism
the gamechanger isn't e-bikes, its joined-up dedicated infrastructure
we're still decades away from that in the provinces
Posted 7 years ago # -
Bax - I regularly get overtaken by a silver fox on an ebike heading West on Glasgow Road...
Posted 7 years ago # -
is this the chap?
does he mutter "its time to raise the rents" as he passes?
Posted 7 years ago # -
"No it doesn't he is talking about places with high car use (which may or may not still have 'mass cycling')."
No he didn't. He talked about large cities and a growing world population, i.e.. there won't be any space for cars in the mega-cities of the developing economies. Kowloon walled city was his vision of the near future.
"That's his point - any gamechanger (if it happens) won't be coming from the bicycle industry."
The reason I searched for Bosch is because they were his example of a non-cycling company getting into cycling. The rest was just speculation, "what if x car companies..." Yeah but they haven't, as yet.
Posted 7 years ago # -
"the gamechanger isn't e-bikes, its joined-up dedicated infrastructure"
Mmm
"joined-up dedicated infrastructure" would be better than any significant increase in e-bikes, but one requires government the other would be a product of the 'free market'.
I'm not suggesting that there will be an 'e-bike revolution' - that's what the writer of the article thinks.
There's probably more chance of significantly more e-bikes than a mass move to e-cars any time soon.
Posted 7 years ago # -
He mentions Bosch as an example of a game changer. As the provider of the electric assist on the Urban Arrow I would say he's right.
He also mentions that others can and will compete. Shimano Steps motor is one - another crank assist system.
Bosch of course re-purposed a starter motor from truck industry into their e-bike range. When we sold our first UA, Bosch didn't have an e-bike division. Since then things have expanded greatly. One worry with too much tech though is wasteful upgrades.
The non e-bike industry aims to sell more expensive lighter components which don't last as long. (Eg 11 speed). 11 speed does offer a bigger almost 400% of increment without double or triple chain rings so not just fashion.Posted 7 years ago # -
one requires government the other would be a product of the 'free market'
ok, so infrastructure the catalyst for e-bikes the gamechanger
can't see it vice versa
but i'd buy that for a dollar
Posted 7 years ago # -
"so infrastructure the catalyst for e-bikes the gamechanger"
Very likely!
Just need car companies to press for segregated infrastructure for 'their' e-bikes'!
Posted 7 years ago # -
@bax "i like the idea of some auld boomer keeping pace with me up the queensferry road, on an electric assist bike"
That happens in Germany all the time, they are everywhere.
E-bikes are very popular with elderly people, and they are really ideal for active pensioners who find hills a bit hard on the lungs/heart/knees but otherwise enjoy being out.
Good infrastructure is the key. E-bikes are still bikes and cycling in motor traffic is still too unpleasant for many.
Posted 7 years ago # -
"the gamechanger isn't e-bikes, its joined-up dedicated infrastructure"
The gamechangers isn't any one thing. The trouble is in looking for a magic bullet. I'd say a joined up, dedicated infrastructure will have more impact, for sure, but there are still some legitimate reasons that even with that people won't take up cycling, and so an e-bike might be their final push into it.
I'm not about to start waffling about holistic approaches to synergies, but we do need to focus on interactions between all good ideas, and not say, 'well this idea is better and that is what's going to get everyone cycling'.
I have to say, the WalkCycleVote event I went to was very much along those lines, really encouraging people to work out how many different factors kept people from cycling, how it affected different demographics, and how to change lots of different things to achieve a tipping point.
(I'm a fan of e-bikes, I've come across HankChief's silver fox, and just laughed when he breezed alongside me. Loved seeing an older couple on Alpe d'HUez as well, he in club kit, she dressed much more relaxed, he on his carbon fibre lightweight machine, she cruising uphill on the battery).
Posted 7 years ago # -
My impression in Germany was that e-bikes are very popular and common now, but most people I talked to used normal bikes before and moved to e-bikes so that they could continue when they got older or had health problems.
I'm not sure if e-bikes really encourage many non-cyclists onto bikes unless they are already interested in trying out cycling and it's only a hill that stops them.
So I can't see e-bikes on their own as a game changer either, although they may contribute to making cycling accessible and interesting to more people.
Posted 7 years ago # -
"I'm not sure if e-bikes really encourage many non-cyclists onto bikes unless they are already interested in trying out cycling and it's only a hill that stops them."
From the experience of my own parents, neither of whom were cyclists in the past, yes, they do encourage it. My mum hires one on an annual holiday in the Lakes so she can go out with her granddaughter; my dad (who has been allergic to most forms of exercise for at least the last 30 years, but used to be an excellent swimmer and squasher) is cruising websites looking to buy one.
"So I can't see e-bikes on their own as a game changer either"
Yep, exactly my point. Far more complex than one gamechanger.
Posted 7 years ago # -
"So I can't see e-bikes on their own as a game changer either"
The idea behind the article (at least my interpretation) is that the actual 'game changer' would be the automotive industry getting involved with its engineering, design, manufacturing and marketing expertise.
Whether that happens remains to be seen.
Whether the actual products sell - and get used - very much remains to be seen.
History is no guide...
"
In December 1977, Volvo in Gothenburg wanted to produce minicars and investigated conditions and designs. In January 1978, it proposed plastic composite materials in many parts of the car. Other products were considered, the bicycle one of them. In October 1978, a grant of SEK 54,000 from the Swedish National Board for Technical Development financed a prototype plastic bicycle.
"
Posted 7 years ago # -
"In a sense, what makes the bicycle so attractive as a transport solution is that it is so simple and doesn't require much technology, although GPS and bike computers / apps can be added easily."
Apologies for this as it's an advert, but getting comments from bicycle riders!
Posted 7 years ago # -
Love it. You can see the Vauxhall social media crew were prepared for people saying it's a terrible idea, as they've got their mantra ready of, "It's not for the driver, it's to keep the passengers entertained".
And then they've ignored the perfectly reasonable query asking what safeguards they have on the system to stop drivers connecting to it.
Posted 7 years ago # -
I daresay it'll see as much use in single-occupancy cars, if not moreso...
Posted 7 years ago # -
I don't accept his premise that bicycles today are more durable than those of the 1950's, far from it.
If the motor industry is going to have teams of 50 super developers working on bikes then bike prices will have to rise by some multiple - I can't see a lot of "ordinary" people being willing to pay up (You know the usual - "I paid a lot for a bike, it cost a hundred pounds").
Even with an electric motor it will still be "just a bike" in terms of what they are prepared to pay, to many.
Posted 7 years ago # -
Blueth 'I don't accept his premise that bicycles today are more durable than those of the 1950's, far from it.'
I agree to a degree.
Race bikes 'consume' 11 speed chains and blocks. Carbon rims wear out. Electronic gears will fail eventually or suffer from lack of spares. Every year STI shifters get re-styled so if you damage one you can't get a matching single etc.
Practical bikes though can use drum brakes and have Nuvinci hubs and covered chains. Of course ideal bike would be a folding, lightweight electric assist option model with wheels that never went out of true. Built in lights of course and central locking. Some of these were incorporated here. I've seen a couple in Edinburgh.
http://gocycle.com/g3/Designed in London. £3k each
This though could be bought via finance (if you wanted one) - something that the automotive industry uses and encourages all the time. This is not a good thing of course. Lots of people don't own their car and sure parts of the bike industry would love to have people spend their lives buying and re-buying versions of the same slightly 'improved' bike in the same way as they 'buy/rent' cars.
Basically I think that most people don't spend car sized chunks of money unless they are going to replace a car with something that does same job.
This could be one of a diverse choice of new vehicles - some of which may be bicycles or possibly tricycles of some sort. All sorts of concept stuff is out there as any reader of the fabulous Velo Vision http://www.velovision.com will know. (Copies available at LB!)I put together a book of my favourite non-standard bike designs jut to show that bikes in 2016 can be different from 1916. Issuu link here.
https://issuu.com/davidgardiner0/docs/lb_cycling_horizons_3hr/1?e=0
Posted 7 years ago # -
Just saw an advert for Gtech eBikes during the Formula 1 qualifying programme on Ch4. I can't remember seeing a TV advert for a specific bicycle previously, but probably for general bicycle sales at the likes of Halfords. This was clearly inspired by car adverts albeit with an infomercial element.
Posted 7 years ago # -
Just saw a Nissan advert in which the car driver chases a mysterious dark figure on a bicycle through a city and out into the countryside where the cyclist (who managed to stay ahead the whole time) jumps off the bike and a cliff and then paraglides to the ground where the car driver somehow catches up with him, only to be amazed when the cyclist/paraglider removes his helmet and turns out to be the driver. Hmm.
Posted 7 years ago # -
Not forgetting a previous car company/bike designer collaboration-
Posted 7 years ago # -
@chdot I can see the point that the bike industry will be shaken up when car manufacturers get involved, but I feel this is very much linked to the question whether e-bikes transform transport.
Car companies (or any other big business with the resources to throw huge development teams at a design problem) will only get involved if it pays. They haven't got involved in bicycles in the past because they are too cheap and it would be difficult to recover the development costs.
And here I think we are back to the "problem" that a bike is a low-tech machine, and outside performance sports few people are willing to pay much money for minor improvements. It's not that the current designs are perfect, but they are good enough for the job, so there isn't much economic pressure. Cars are also highly regulated, all the environmental and safety laws already require huge research effort, whereas bikes are almost completely unregulated without legal pressure to be perfect.
E-bikes change it because people are willing to pay more, the technology is more complex, and existing companies like Bosch have an advantage as they know everything about electric motors.
But I can't really see these companies interested in the production of normal bicycles. I can imagine that we'll see a lot of innovation in bicycle parts as spinoff from e-bike development, perhaps finally a proper fully sealed maintenance-free drivetrain etc. but there is a good chance that smaller and medium-sized businesses will continue to play a huge role (for other components and also for assembly).
Personal story: One Bosch factory is half a kilometer behind my parents' house. A friend who studied electrical engineering had a summer job there and got hold of a whole box of various motors that hadn't passed their quality control, so we tried to build our own e-bikes by attaching sprockets to the motor and powering it with a huge car battery. It never really worked, but it was fun.
That factory now produces various wind turbine parts - another example where car parts manufacturers like Bosch moved in when the industry was big enough to sustain them, after all the small renewable energy tech startups in the 1980s. But Bosch isn't dominating the wind turbine market, there is still a range of companies of different sizes that contribute their bit somewhere.
Posted 7 years ago #
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