CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!

Is Weather forecast quality getting much worse?

(14 posts)
  • Started 7 years ago by paddyirish
  • Latest reply from paddyirish

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  1. paddyirish
    Member

    Never trusted the BBC but felt that the Met office Forecast used to be reasonably accurate, but in the last 12 months or so, I've found it was way out. Yesterday was forecast to be <5% chance of rain, so left washing out overnight, to find it hardly let up all day. Again this morning <5% chance and got two soakings on the ride in.

    What does everyone else use and is there something more accurate out there?

    Posted 7 years ago #
  2. wingpig
    Member

    I sometimes use MetCheck if I want more detail about the expected rainfall than the BBC's four-level rainblob indicator supplies. It suggested that the rain around Falkirk yesterday would only be light, but it turned out to be much heavier much earlier and everyone ran into the café at the Kelpies.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  3. crowriver
    Member

    Aye yesterday was a bit out. Forecast kept changing too! Light rain in afternoon was earlier and heavier than predicted, then heavy rain much much later than originally predicted, by which time forecast had been revised to dry but overcast.

    It's really just educated guesswork, isn't it? If you want to know what the weather's doing, look out of the window...

    Posted 7 years ago #
  4. chrisfl
    Member

    I tend to use http://forcast.io It's key feature is using the metoffice rain radar system to produce a forcast for the next hour. This is usually spot on.

    I also look at metoffice and yr.no the Norwegian Met.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  5. neddie
    Member

    I blame all the cyclists causing congestion and hence global warming.

    </EEN mentality>

    Posted 7 years ago #
  6. cc
    Member

    I check wunderground.com, the met office and yr.no.

    As a bonus, if you click "Change Station" on wunderground.com you get a wee map of temperatures round the city, as measured by various personal weather stations.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  7. sallyhinch
    Member

    None of the weather apps (including raintoday) seem to recognise really fine light rain as rain. Unfortunately in my experience that's the stuff that gets you wettest of all

    Posted 7 years ago #
  8. wingpig
    Member

    "...really fine light rain..."

    It's possibly not considered rain when you're inside a cloud at ground level. There was some of that a few weeks back when I'd been planning to cycle to Livingston after work (through a projected rainfall estimate of 0.10-0.19mm), but got so damp after two streets that I turned round and parked in Waverley.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  9. jdanielp
    Member

    I use the BBC phone app and website, which I find to be generally quite accurate, and also have a free app called Rain Alarm which provides alerts of rain in the vicinity (distance, intensity and area) which sometimes manages to warn me about rain that the BBC has failed to acknowledge.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  10. neddie
    Member

    Today's forecast:

    It will rain.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  11. paddyirish
    Member

    @edd1e_h - like it

    Like in Taranaki region in New Zealand. West coast, dominated by a spectacular 8000ft volcano. Forecasting was easy.

    "If you can see the mountain, it's going to rain, if you can't see the mountain, it's raining"

    Posted 7 years ago #
  12. Rosie
    Member

    @ paddyirish

    The famous poem about New Zealand's West Coast:-

    t rained and rained and rained and rained,
    The average fall was well maintained,
    And when the tracks were simply bogs
    It started raining cats and dogs.

    After a drought of half an hour
    we had a most refreshing shower,
    then the most curious thing of all:
    a gentle rain began to fall.

    Next day was also fairly dry
    save for the deluge from the sky
    which wet the party to the skin:
    and after that, the rain set in.

    Posted 7 years ago #
  13. minus six
    Member

    i've been using yr.no since 2006

    its a wee bit more pessimistic with precipitation forecasts than the bbc are

    yr.no wind forecast is very accurate, which helps with FRB decisions

    http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/Edinburgh/hour_by_hour.html

    also mobile site, which has a 7 day view, click on a single day to expand

    https://www.yr.no/en/graph/daily/2-2650225/United%20Kingdom/Scotland/Edinburgh/Edinburgh

    Posted 7 years ago #
  14. paddyirish
    Member

    @Rosie

    Know that one well, and not that exaggerated - a lot of the west coast gets 8m of rain a year. As comparison Edinburgh gets about 0.6m and Glasgow just over 1.

    Posted 7 years ago #

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