First Minister just announced she will put it to Parliament to request an independence referendum scheduled between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
Do we need an Indyref2 thread?
(189 posts)-
Posted 7 years ago #
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"Do we need an Indyref2 thread?"
Would seem so.
In the traditions of CCE, this thread will of course be well mannered and aware that some people found the previous one informative/useful as it 'had things/info I couldn't find anywhere else'!
Posted 7 years ago # -
Ineteresting. I agree the question has changed post Brexit from a binary one to including a number of factors and that it is worth investigating.
From a personal POV, I have changed from a soft Yes to a hard Yes and think that many others on both sides will be similarly further entrenched.
Any change in outcome will probably depend on ~30% of the electorate who are open to conversion and they will probably form two major groups.
1) Independence supporters who voted for Brexit
2) Unionist supporters who voted remain.The ultimate decision will be down to these folks choosing their least bad option.
A 2nd defeat would be the end of the Independence movement.
Posted 7 years ago # -
I suspect that there is a group that just craves stability.
In any case, there will be good work for therapists after 3 referendums (yes I looked up the plural - not that I really care), especially as in each case they are on fundamental issues and the vote has been or is likely to be close in percentage terms.
Posted 7 years ago # -
From a personal POV, I have changed from a soft Yes to a hard Yes and think that many others on both sides will be similarly further entrenched.
I'm going from a yes to a no.
I don't know whether I'm just a weirdo outlier, or if there'll be a meaningful level of side-switching.
Posted 7 years ago # -
I think there'll be some switching 'yes' to 'no' after having seen the mess Brexit has created, before it has even started.
Posted 7 years ago # -
There will be many people who vote differently to the way they did in IR1.
Already there are people who will definitely vote the same as before, and (presumably) many undecided because they don't (and can't) know what "Brexit means" or if Scotland will be (or want to be in the EU).
It's clear that some people who normal vote SNP (and some Greens) voted for Brexit, so there is no simple binary for many people.
To some extent a lot more depends on TM than NS.
It's possible that the Westminster Gov will do something to make IR2 irrelevant to anyone who doesn't want 'Indy at any cost'.
I actually think it's more likely that 'Europe' - with the help of politicians on the island of Ireland - will make it possible for Scotland to stay in the EU (or, somehow, rejoin shortly after Brexit - with our without it being Independent).
Interesting times, and/or two more years of tedium.
Posted 7 years ago # -
I can't help feel this would have been better waiting to see how Brexit actually pans out; in the likely case of it being a complete calamity then surely the case would be much easiser made. Right now I'm not convinced there is any apetite for another round of referendum fights, I know I cba.
Posted 7 years ago # -
Scotland remaining in the EU would be problematic with an England outside the single market and customs union. A hard border would be a real possibility (see current debate about Ireland/Northern Ireland). Scotland could try and joint EFTA but stay outside the customs union (like Norway) to keep an open(ish) border.
I'm sure this is why the FM was silent on what any future independent Scotland's relationship with the EU could look like.
Posted 7 years ago # -
Ireland intersting as republic not really wanting the north but can't say that, so if went to referendum they would likely vote to stay apart (though polls might not have this right). With the opposite true for many in the North - they might vote to join to stay in EU (despite being former Nay Sayers)
So in our context and linking to the Irish situation we could well end up with a federation of former UK states (not called England) wishing to stay in EU
I am keen on EU and wish to remain therein, NIcky S - Who loves ya baby?
Posted 7 years ago # -
Confident yes before, committed yes now ... and will certainly be more active this time round.
I'm sure those that knew they were always 'yes' or 'no' last time round will be even more entrenched.
The waverers will be an even more important battleground this time, and they tend to stay as waverers until very late on.
Posted 7 years ago # -
"Scotland remaining in the EU would be problematic with an England outside the single market and customs union."
Yes, but such 'practical realities' may or not be the decider - in the way that 'currency' and 'borders' probably swayed people last time.
"The waverers will be an even more important battleground this time, and they tend to stay as waverers until very late on."
Which is why it might be wise for 'hard campaigners' to hold back for 18 months or more!
Referendum fatigue already...
Posted 7 years ago # -
not sure how many waverers there were last time? THe final result was largely the same as the initial polls IIRC.
Switchers because of hard brexit is the group Nicky S will be going after. You have to liove her for upstaging T MAy's announcement timed for tomorrow?
As alluded to up thread 0ne million scots voted to leave EU (maybe they were all tories? Including of course the Red Tory Scum like me though I voted to stay in EU along with the 2 million other scots or thereabouts)
Posted 7 years ago # -
"not sure how many waverers there were last time? THe final result was largely the same as the initial polls IIRC"
Depends what date you count as "initial".
Posted 7 years ago # -
THe final result was largely the same as the initial polls IIRC.
Fairly flat at ~35% support up till early 2014, then steadily increases:Posted 7 years ago # -
@CHdot, wery true, was some time after 1979 I think
Posted 7 years ago # -
I used to think that the 'point' of politicians was to arrange compromises.
I don't think NS is that keen to have another IndyRef and TM knows this.
Expect TM and her poodle press will now go into her 'enemies of Britain and fellow Europeans' mode to try and isolate the Scottish electorate.
Business and education here though has been supportive of SG suggested 'work rounds' to let Scotland get the best of both worlds. This could even improve Scotland's growth rate and save us being such a 'drain on the rest of the UK' (allegedly). It would avoid re-running arguments and let us concentrate on gradual re-alignments whilst letting the rUK get on with what matters to them.
Brexit is going to occupy the whole civil service down south. Sorting more 'up here' is surely the point of being in a union and having Holyrood?
Of course one big problem is the (floated) destructive idea of the UK walking out of the EU and declining to pay any settlement costs. Countries going back on agreements might make any future negotiations difficult for any associated parts of that country (eg Scotland).
Posted 7 years ago # -
Given the demographics of the Yes/No vote from last time (disproportionately the yes vote was younger), there may not be a need to change many voters minds.
Posted 7 years ago # -
Posted 7 years ago #
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I can see why Oor Nicola has announced this now. However I think the proposed timing of the poll is off. Better to wait until after Brexit is done and dusted, I would think.
I was a definite Yes in 2014, but now I'm a bit torn. Will probably vote Yes but need to consider all the pros and cons before making a final decision.
Posted 7 years ago # -
TM might set indyref 2 date after brexit?
Posted 7 years ago # -
Will citizens of other EU countries be allowed to vote in indyref2, as they were in 2014?
Posted 7 years ago # -
That is up to the Scottish Parliament when they legislate on it, or at least it was last time around.
Posted 7 years ago # -
I'll vote yes, it's been in my bones for all my adult life.
Do I agree now is the right time? Actually I really don't.
I had hoped after the last referendum that instead of carrying on blaming Westminster for everything that after getting new powers we'd embark on 10 years of positive persuasion, by increasing tax rates and putting that money to improving our public services and creating a fairer society, and then having the 'look what we've done' arguement.
Instead we suffered another 2 years of 'rate capping' (there's not really a better term for it), fear to be bold with the new powers, and some more of the usual Westminster bashing.
Disappointed to say the least! I'll still vote yes mind, and twice on a Sunday...
Will be interesting to see what arguments are made this time, presumably more open on currency given we'd need to adopt € to be part of EU.
The 'we'll still have a free trade deal with the rUK because it would be economic suicide to do otherwise' argument doesn't really hold true now that we know that's the UK's plan re Europe, can't imagine they'd fight for a deal with an independent Scotland now...Posted 7 years ago # -
We wouldn't need to adopt the € just make a commitment to do so.
We don't qualify for € membership and even if we did, should it seem like a bad idea, we could just do like Sweden and not join the ERM II.
Posted 7 years ago # -
I can see why they've chosen to have another ref as it's basically the only time ever that there won't be a "status quo" option on the ballot paper.
You'll either have to vote for the uncertainty of a swinging hard Brexit or for the uncertainty of indy.
In our household last time round there was a split vote, the "it could be risky, do nothing" option was attractive. Now removed from the ballot, does open it up a bit.
Posted 7 years ago # -
According to KD, the SNP have raised £100K for this in 24 hours.
THey should stick it in a high interest account until TM says Yes.?
Euro lottery winners and bus company owners digging deep to fund campaign?
back in a minute with my favourite quote from A Man For All Seasons (paraphrasing JC)
So JC says
Mark 8:36King James Version (KJV)
36 For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?
Which Robert Bolt, playing I think Thomas Moore (says to John Hurt playing Richard Rich who has just been very duplicitous to get the Welsh Secretary job)
“For Wales? Why Richard, it profit a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. . . but for Wales!”
Posted 7 years ago # -
@baldcyclist
This:
"I had hoped after the last referendum that instead of carrying on blaming Westminster for everything that after getting new powers we'd embark on 10 years of positive persuasion, by increasing tax rates and putting that money to improving our public services and creating a fairer society, and then having the 'look what we've done' argument.
Instead we suffered another 2 years of 'rate capping' (there's not really a better term for it), fear to be bold with the new powers, and some more of the usual Westminster bashing."
You've very nicely articulated my thoughts on this. I had hoped that given their almost absolute power in Scotland following the last election, that the SNP would use this wisely to take steps towards the "fairer" society they purport to believe in. Instead it's been more business as usual.
Posted 7 years ago # -
@gembo, keep up with the postmodern neo-surrealism. It fair brightens my day, so it does.
@geordie, "it's been more business as usual."
Indeed, which is why I'm torn. I desperately don't want Scotland to go down with the sinking ship Brexitania, but on the other hand I don't want to hand the SNP even more power.
It's going to be an interesting 18 months to 2 years...
Posted 7 years ago # -
John Swinney's Scottish Attainment Challenge and Pupil Equity Fund are both ways of trying to break the link between deprivation and attainment in education. THis is a step towards a fairer society. Both initiatives are of course similar to earlier versions in England.
John Swinney can be quite funny as well as mostly serious. I like him.
Posted 7 years ago #
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