Oh man, am. Going to have to stay up?
I know - I was ready for an early night. But, now...
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
General Election 8th June
(493 posts)-
Posted 8 years ago #
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Oh I do hope that exit poll is correct.
Posted 8 years ago # -
Fingers (and everything else) crossed.
Europe will be amused!
Posted 8 years ago # -
Posted 8 years ago #
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LIKELY TO CHANGE MASSIVELY OVER THE NIGHT
"
Result forecast as of 22:00 BST
We are forecasting 11 Conservative gains. Six of those are in Scotland, four in Wales and one in East England.
Projected: Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 99% chance of a Conservative victory
Projected: Alyn & Deeside 97% chance of a Conservative victory
Projected: Angus 90% chance of a Conservative victory
Projected: Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 99% chance of a Conservative victory
Projected: Clacton 99% chance of a Conservative victory
Projected: Clwyd South 97% chance of a Conservative victory
Projected: Delyn 98% chance of a Conservative victory
Projected: Dumfries & Galloway 99% chance of a Conservative victory
Projected: Moray 99% chance of a Conservative victory
Projected: Perth & Perthshire North 99% chance of a Conservative victory
Projected: Wrexham 99% chance of a Conservative victory
Forecast Labour gainsWe are forecasting 14 Labour gains. Five of those are in North-West England, three in London and one each in Scotland, East England, the East Midlands, the West Midlands, South-East England, Yorkshire and the Humber.
Projected: Bedford 97% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Bolton West 99% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Brighton Kemptown 99% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Bury North 99% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Croydon Central 99% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Derby North 99% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Edinburgh North & Leith 81% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Enfield Southgate 93% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Finchley & Golders Green 91% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Keighley 80% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: South Ribble 83% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Warrington South 90% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Weaver Vale 99% chance of a Labour victory
Projected: Worcester 81% chance of a Labour victory
Forecast Lib Dem gains
Banner showing Tim Farron
We are forecasting four Lib Dem gains. All of these are in Scotland.
Projected: Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 81% chance of a Liberal Democrat victory
Projected: Dunbartonshire East 99% chance of a Liberal Democrat victory
Projected: Edinburgh West 99% chance of a Liberal Democrat victory
Projected: Ross, Skye & Lochaber 90% chance of a Liberal Democrat victoryThe race in a large number of seats is so tight that the result is currently too close to call. There are 76 seats that our predictions show as being too close to call.
Seats forecast too close to call: Conservative held in 2015
Battersea, the Conservatives have a 40% chance of victory, Labour has a 60% chance of victory
Bristol North West, the Conservatives have a 49% chance of victory, Labour has a 51% chance of victory
Broxtowe, the Conservatives have a 36% chance of victory, Labour has a 64% chance of victory
Calder Valley, the Conservatives have a 40% chance of victory, Labour has a 60% chance of victory
Cannock Chase, the Conservatives have a 72% chance of victory, Labour has a 28% chance of victory
Chingford & Woodford Green, the Conservatives have a 79% chance of victory, Labour has a 21% chance of victory
Chipping Barnet, the Conservatives have a 41% chance of victory, Labour has a 59% chance of victory
Colne Valley, the Conservatives have a 48% chance of victory, Labour has a 52% chance of victory
Corby, the Conservatives have a 63% chance of victory, Labour has a 37% chance of victory
Dudley South, the Conservatives have a 79% chance of victory, Labour has a 21% chance of victory
Elmet & Rothwell, the Conservatives have a 41% chance of victory, Labour has a 59% chance of victory
Harrow East, the Conservatives have a 40% chance of victory, Labour has a 60% chance of victory
Hendon, the Conservatives have a 25% chance of victory, Labour has a 75% chance of victory
High Peak, the Conservatives have a 48% chance of victory, Labour has a 52% chance of victory
Kingston & Surbiton, the Conservatives have a 76% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 24% chance of victory
Lincoln, the Conservatives have a 55% chance of victory, Labour has a 45% chance of victory
Loughborough, the Conservatives have a 57% chance of victory, Labour has a 43% chance of victory
Milton Keynes North, the Conservatives have a 57% chance of victory, Labour has a 43% chance of victory
Milton Keynes South, the Conservatives have a 46% chance of victory, Labour has a 54% chance of victory
Morecambe & Lunesdale, the Conservatives have a 69% chance of victory, Labour has a 31% chance of victory
Morley & Outwood, the Conservatives have a 46% chance of victory, Labour has a 54% chance of victory
Norwich North, the Conservatives have a 69% chance of victory, Labour has a 31% chance of victory
Nuneaton, the Conservatives have a 69% chance of victory, Labour has a 31% chance of victory
Peterborough, the Conservatives have a 64% chance of victory, Labour has a 36% chance of victory
Plymouth Moor View, the Conservatives have a 52% chance of victory, Labour has a 48% chance of victory
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, the Conservatives have a 47% chance of victory, Labour has a 53% chance of victory
Pudsey, the Conservatives have a 40% chance of victory, Labour has a 60% chance of victory
Reading East, the Conservatives have a 34% chance of victory, Labour has a 66% chance of victory
Reading West, the Conservatives have a 36% chance of victory, Labour has a 64% chance of victory
Richmond Park, the Conservatives have a 77% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 23% chance of victory
Rossendale & Darwen, the Conservatives have a 77% chance of victory, Labour has a 23% chance of victory
Shipley, the Conservatives have a 71% chance of victory, Labour has a 29% chance of victory
Shrewsbury & Atcham, the Conservatives have a 71% chance of victory, Labour has a 29% chance of victory
Southampton Itchen, the Conservatives have a 72% chance of victory, Labour has a 28% chance of victory
Stafford, the Conservatives have a 75% chance of victory, Labour has a 25% chance of victory
Stevenage, the Conservatives have a 70% chance of victory, Labour has a 30% chance of victory
Stockton South, the Conservatives have a 46% chance of victory, Labour has a 54% chance of victory
Stroud, the Conservatives have a 34% chance of victory, Labour has a 66% chance of victory
Swindon South, the Conservatives have a 79% chance of victory, Labour has a 21% chance of victory
Telford, the Conservatives have a 50% chance of victory, Labour has a 50% chance of victory
Thurrock, the Conservatives have a 48% chance of victory, Labour has a 52% chance of victory
Twickenham, the Conservatives have a 67% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 33% chance of victory
Warwick & Leamington, the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 69% chance of victory
Watford, the Conservatives have a 75% chance of victory, Labour has a 25% chance of victory
Waveney, the Conservatives have a 66% chance of victory, Labour has a 34% chance of victory
Seats forecast too close to call: Labour held in 2015
Barrow & Furness, the Conservatives have a 39% chance of victory, Labour has a 61% chance of victory
Bridgend, the Conservatives have a 23% chance of victory, Labour has a 77% chance of victory
Dewsbury, the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 69% chance of victory
Halifax, the Conservatives have a 45% chance of victory, Labour has a 55% chance of victory
Newcastle-Under-Lyme, the Conservatives have a 40% chance of victory, Labour has a 60% chance of victory
Newport East, the Conservatives have a 53% chance of victory, Labour has a 47% chance of victory
Newport West, the Conservatives have a 47% chance of victory, Labour has a 53% chance of victory
Ynys Mon, the Conservatives have a 13% chance of victory, Labour has a 55% chance of victory, Plaid Cymru has a 32% chance of victory
Seats forecast too close to call: Liberal Democrat held in 2015
Leeds North West, Labour has a 56% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 44% chance of victory
Sheffield Hallam, Labour has a 33% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 67% chance of victory
Southport, the Conservatives have a 10% chance of victory, Labour has a 14% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 76% chance of victory
Seats forecast too close to call: SNP held in 2015
Aberdeen South, the Conservatives have a 63% chance of victory, Labour has a 11% chance of victory, the SNP has a 26% chance of victory
Airdrie & Shotts, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 77% chance of victory
Argyll & Bute, the Conservatives have a 4% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 36% chance of victory, the SNP has a 60% chance of victory
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, the Conservatives have a 35% chance of victory, Labour has a 1% chance of victory, the SNP has a 64% chance of victory
Banff & Buchan, the Conservatives have a 25% chance of victory, the SNP has a 75% chance of victory
East Lothian, the Conservatives have a 24% chance of victory, Labour has a 55% chance of victory, the SNP has a 20% chance of victory
Edinburgh East, Labour has a 49% chance of victory, the SNP has a 51% chance of victory
Edinburgh South West, the Conservatives have a 37% chance of victory, Labour has a 27% chance of victory, the SNP has a 36% chance of victory
Fife North East, the Conservatives have a 7% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 73% chance of victory, the SNP has a 20% chance of victory
Glasgow Central, Labour has a 59% chance of victory, the SNP has a 41% chance of victory
Gordon, the Liberal Democrats have a 51% chance of victory, the SNP has a 49% chance of victory
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey, the Liberal Democrats have a 48% chance of victory, the SNP has a 52% chance of victory
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Labour has a 25% chance of victory, the SNP has a 75% chance of victory
Lanark & Hamilton East, the Conservatives have a 5% chance of victory, Labour has a 16% chance of victory, the SNP has a 79% chance of victory
Ochil & Perthshire South, the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory
Paisley & Renfrewshire North, Labour has a 21% chance of victory, the SNP has a 79% chance of victory
Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Labour has a 54% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory
Renfrewshire East, the Conservatives have a 32% chance of victory, Labour has a 58% chance of victory, the SNP has a 10% chance of victory
Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Labour has a 41% chance of victory, the SNP has a 59% chance of victory
Stirling, the Conservatives have a 56% chance of victory, Labour has a 3% chance of victory, the SNP has a 41% chance of victory"
Posted 8 years ago # -
Interesting night!
Posted 8 years ago # -
Just woken up (in some senses!)
Posted 8 years ago # -
Did not see that coming. Was supposed to be end of corbyn not end of May. Corbyn being praised by arch blairite John McTernan. Corbyn got the young to vote for him but only increased a
By a few seats.DUP do not like Corbyn of course.
Next election here we come
Posted 8 years ago # -
Wow, exit polls pretty close to truth. Strong and Stable my ****.
Good news in UK as a whole, but shame Scotland had to pay the price.NE Fife settled by 2 votes SNP over Lib Dem - that is pretty amazing...
Posted 8 years ago # -
SNP still dominant but their near annihilation of Scottish labour let the Tories back in. Up north.
Two votes is well within the standard error of measurement.
Not sure what has happened to the west in coatbridge and rutherglen? Tories voting labour to beat SNP? Lib dem voting labour?
Tories highest share of vote in Uk (and Scotland) since 1983?
My daughter who has been voting since 16 sees Corbyn as the man ( same as me) but her cronies all see SNP as establishment?
Corbyn though has not translated votes into seats, says John curt ice. Sadly. Zack goldsmith back with majority of 45.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"Did not see that coming."
Well I did (sort of) -
"FIRM PREDICTION
Lots of surprises."
Whatever the view of the details, I really think the electorate won.
There remain various Scotland v the rest differences/divides.
Good case for further devolution/more (UK) federalism, maybe more desire for a 'fairer' electoral system.
Posted 8 years ago # -
Good news in UK as a whole, but shame Scotland had to pay the price.
Not sure what price you reckon we've paid? A few extra tories is hardly electing Trump. Would it be good to keep the panda joke, yes, but it's hardly the end of the world.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"Corbyn being praised by arch blairite John McTernan." (Radio4 Today)
Think "praised" is pushing it.
McT seemed most embarrassed to talk about someone who almost certainly did more for LP than anyone else could have at this election.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"Not sure what price you reckon we've paid?"
Well if those seats had remained SNP or gone Lab, Westminster arithmetic would have been very different.
Posted 8 years ago # -
Well if those seats had remained SNP or gone Lab, Westminster arithmetic would have been very different.
True but people voting for a party which they support, however, distasteful isn't a price and certainly not one the whole country is paying.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"I am confident(ish) that it will be Murray or Eadie."
REALLY didn't expect massive majority for Murray -
Posted 8 years ago # -
Angus Robertson gone.
Mhairi Black re-elected.Deluded May has now weakened the economy with her reckless gamble. Expect she will/should go but can count on DUP support.
Media will turn against her massively I expect.Posted 8 years ago # -
Tories getting into bed with the flute players of the DUP has some interesting Brexit dynamics given the unique European situation in Northern Ireland/Republic border.
Perhaps not as clear cut a coalition as some expect.
Surprised at some Tory gains up here, but in some ways it's a return to the norm (Tory seats in the Highlands and borders).
Indyref2 is dead - once in a generation quote proved correct.
Ian Murray returned with a bigger majority! Shows how well he has done locally, sticks in my throat that he is part of the Labour party after his backstabbing of Corbyn.
Posted 8 years ago # -
REALLY didn't expect massive majority for Murray
Wow.
Stephanie Smith's leaflets claimed that only the Conservatives could beat the SNP in Edinburgh South...
Posted 8 years ago # -
REALLY didn't expect massive majority for Murray
He was up against a paper Tory candidate and a shy SNP candidate who had already been beaten by Murray's watery sidekick in 2016. No contest.
Posted 8 years ago # -
I told you nothing good could come of this election, but I hadn't quite let my imagination run to Ms May as prime minister negotiating the UK's exit from the EU while in hock to the DUP.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"my imagination run to Ms May as prime minister negotiating the UK's exit"
More likely her own exit.
Posted 8 years ago # -
@chdot
Yes, I expect the Shadows will be gathering around her, but what then? David Davis would be the most palatable option.
Posted 8 years ago # -
But Tories are livid with David Davis - apparently he was the main proponent of the snap election.
The Tories have lost ground in Remain constituencies so the chances are that there are fewer "decent" Tories (if there is such a thing) and a higher concentration of swivel eyed loons in the parliamentary party...
Boris seemed unusually chipper this morning...
Posted 8 years ago # -
@paddyirish
I've no idea what's likely - they are as foreign to me as the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten party, but at least Davis is intelligent and has some principles (many of which I don't like but he has them).
I don't suppose there's a John Major figure lurking somewhere amongst the sack of rapidly swiveling greased rats?
Posted 8 years ago # -
Zak's back...
Posted 8 years ago # -
"Zak's back... "
With another 49 votes the Libdems could have had two more seats.
Posted 8 years ago # -
Tory vote wasn't that far behind SNP in Edinburgh South.
I wonder how many votes for Murray were 'despite Corbyn'. I'd wager a hell of a lot.Posted 8 years ago # -
I think any Tory planning a political future will prop up May until the Brexit negotiations are done. When it all falls to bits, then they will pounce. Why go for it now when you can let a lame duck take all the blame.
I suspect the DUP will come to rue this day - see how well coalition worked out for that nice Mr Clegg and his pals.
Posted 8 years ago #
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