"I think any Tory planning a political future will prop up May until the Brexit negotiations are done."
Nope.
Too uncertain on too many levels.
Who can now have any confidence that she'd negotiate a good Brexit deal?
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
General Election 8th June
(493 posts)-
Posted 8 years ago #
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Back to a hard border with the risk of civil war then?
Posted 8 years ago # -
"Back to a hard border with the risk of civil war then?"
Or a version of Brexit (U.K. inc N.I.) where there's no need for a hard border(?)
Posted 8 years ago # -
I suspect there'll be a lot of Tory MPs very nervous about doing anything that leads to another GE soon. There's a lot of info out there now for anti-Conservative tactical voters.
Posted 8 years ago # -
IWRATS - DUP Manifesto wanted a "frictionless border" and maintenance of the Irish common travel area, plus continued access to EU goodies.
In effect, they want the opposite of most Tories - but they would do anything to prevent JC and Labour from forming a UK Government.
More details (including a charming section on Orangeism): http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/politics/docs/dup/dup_2017-05-31_ge-man.pdf
Posted 8 years ago # -
Despite Stepram's assertions it seems that both the SNP and Tories were indeed lying in Edinburgh West about their abilities to beat each other.
I don't know a huge deal about NI politics but I don't expect DUP have as much to loose as Lib Dem by going into bed with the Tories. If Arlene Foster can keep her job while people all around her are making money by heating empty barns then she must have a very thick teflon skin.
P.S. crowriver, sorry for peddling the poor spelling.
Posted 8 years ago # -
@Morningsider
They can want whatever they like, but the external borders of the EU must have, as a minimum, VAT inspection and controls on the EU side.
Posted 8 years ago # -
IWRATS - yes, that's what is so bonkers about this arrangement. They know their demands can never be met, but their hatred of Irish Nationalism and JC's alleged support for it so they chose to support the Tories anyway.
Posted 8 years ago # -
Laura K says -
"
She stays, for today. After a few hours of wild uncertainty, Theresa May will head to Buckingham Palace to seek permission from the Queen to form a government. She has the understanding and assurance from the DUP to be able to form a government, it seems.
"
Posted 8 years ago # -
Some days you wish you could listen in on a conversation. I wonder how that one will go, obviously the queen won't refuse but I wonder how much "advice" she'll offer.
Posted 8 years ago # -
@IWRATS
and I would assume internal borders on the UK side. Otherwise any EU citizen could waltz over the soft border and end up in the UK without checks.
Dundalk/Newry to be the new Calais?Posted 8 years ago # -
Possibly -
"Well Mrs. May, you don't seem to as popular as you imagined. I will grant your wish to be
QueenPM, but don't ask me again."Posted 8 years ago # -
R4 -
'TMay didn't win 18 of the 21 marginals she visited'
Posted 8 years ago # -
@CHDot - that would be the Theresa effect, see also the phallus on the Cerne Abbas Giant
Posted 8 years ago # -
More on that pan-Unionist alliance:
Posted 8 years ago # -
@George_Osborne
Here's our second edition @EveningStandard: Orange is the new Blue. More editions to follow
Posted 8 years ago # -
May to forge 'government of certainty' with DUP backing
Theresa May has said she will form a government with the support of the Democratic Unionists that can provide "certainty" for the future. Speaking after visiting Buckingham Palace, she said only her party could form a "legitimate" administration after winning the most seats and votes. She said she would work with "friends and allies" in the DUP to take forward Brexit, saying "let's get to work".
Posted 8 years ago # -
The irony, that essentially Scotland put the Tories back into power...
That insistence on #indyref2 must seem double bitter today.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"she said only her party could form a "legitimate" administration after winning the most seats and votes. She said she would work with "friends and allies" in the DUP to take forward Brexit, saying "let's get to work"."
Sadly deluded and absurdly naive.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"The irony, that essentially Scotland put the Tories back into power"
Pretty much, but the further irony being that both Lab and Con obsessed about IndyRef2 more than the SNP and obviously caught a 'no more elections/referendums please' mood, with the result there is likely to be another GE fairly soon!
Posted 8 years ago # -
A trenchant analysis from Jonathan Powell (Blair's long term advisor) on the danger of an alliance with DUP. Can't remember precise words but gist was that it will now be impossible for the UK government to act as an honest broker in trying to resolve the hiatus in Stormont and to further the peace process in NI; Britain is now in hock to a narrowly sectarian minority.
Posted 8 years ago # -
@ih Britain is now in hock to a narrowly sectarian minority.
Narrow and sectarian, no doubt, but the majority party by both vote share and seats in Northern Ireland.
It could be considered as a minority of UK voters, but then Plaid Cymru are more of a minority...
However TM did indeed display her disregard for both the council elections and NI Assembly, by creating a climate (a GE) that prevented the formation of governing coalitions.
Having quibbled over the use of "minority", I'm not any more hopeful in terms of how this will shape the future of NI (and indeed RoI).
Robert
Posted 8 years ago # -
The Tories in Scotland are currently an amalgam of two single issue parties - save the union and hard brexit. That's how they campaigned. I not clear to me whether they can build on that to become a relevant political force again or, if plans for another independence referendum evaporate and once brexit is brexit, they will slide back into irrelevance.
If Scotland does become independent then I suspect that the new centre-right party that they would become will be a strong force in the new politics.
Posted 8 years ago # -
It gets interesting when you look at some of the detail. The LDs won Edinburgh West not becasue their share of the vote went up much but becasue the SNP vote dropped by 10%. While the Tories went up by 10%. Make of that what you will. I had assumed that the LDs would win because of Unionist tactical voting.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"I had assumed that the LDs would win because of Unionist tactical voting."
I think there are a lot of reasons for voting in a different way from a previous election. One factor is candidate over party.
I hope some work is done to establish the extent to which people voted this time when they didn't previously.
Also to establish the apparent disconnect between 'lots of young people voted this time' and the fear of recent weeks that 'lots of young people are being disenfranchised due to changes in the registration system'.
It's mostly unremarked but - especially in the light of yesterday's election in Scotland - I find it remarkable that Edinburgh has no Conservative MPs.
Posted 8 years ago # -
@Roibeard I think the point Powell was making was that the DUP are a minority in NI. I've just totted up their vote and they got 38.27% of the votes cast. Now of course they got more seats and had the largest vote share, but DUP voters are still a minority so (I agree with him) that, especially in the fragile position in NI, to ally with a minority with pretty entrenched views will not benefit the peace process. I sincerely hope not, but this deal may be at the price of severe deterioration in NI.
Posted 8 years ago # -
@crowriver, at first glance I assumed your link was today's headline from a site such as the Daily Mash.
Sadly it's a few days old and not an attempt at humour.
Posted 8 years ago # -
The west edinburgh win by LDs is good example of the now common-place phenomenon of tories not needing to vote SNP anymore to keep out Labour.
Posted 8 years ago # -
@chdot I'm with you - no tories in Edinburgh + east / midlothian labour wins (and fairly close result in Edinburgh North?), absolutely fascinating.
my take is that tory surge is mainly tartan tories returning to their traditional home in response to sturgeon et al taking party to the left of salmond's SNP; it's almost universally a rural vote (outside of aberdeen?) but SNP vote in Edinburgh wasn' tartan tories?
Posted 8 years ago #
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