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IT’S TRUE!
CCE is 15years old!
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RULES No personal insults. No swearing.
That SNP chap previously tried for selection for Edinburgh North/Leith for Holyrood 2016.
It would have been nice if his pitch for Edinburgh West at least acknowledged the constituency before launching into his "battling for Scotlandyland againstthe Tories" spiel.
"SNP allowed a couple of duff candidates to sneak through..."
Only a couple? Lots of rubbish Labour MPs were replaced by equally bad SNP ones as far as I can see.
In response to my tweet to him last night he did at least acknowledge the traffic/pollution issues in Corstorphine.
It would be quite hard not to as that was what I tweeted him about.
Only a couple?
I was only commenting on things that would affect their fitness to stand/work as an MP, whether or not they are a bit of a rocket is another thing!
Fortunately in Edinburgh East we got Tommy Sheppard who is a thoroughly good and principled egg.
It would be quite hard not to as that was what I tweeted him about.
I dunno, some politicians seem to excel in this matter.
"Lots of rubbish Labour MPs were replaced by equally bad SNP ones as far as I can see."
There were certainly quite a few startled looking rabbit-in-headlight type MPs who clearly never thought they would be elected. Some of them turned out to be a bit dodgy, one or two very dodgy.
Hopefully the "Stronger for/Standing up for Scotland" party has learned its lesson about candidate vetting prior to selection...
Ah, gotcha.
To be fair, there are some new SNP MPs who appear to be superb. Stewart McDonald in Glasgow for one - wish all parties had more like him.
Tommy Sheppard in Edinburgh East seems to be doing a decent job.
To be fair, the previous incumbent Sheila Gilmore did a decent job too.
The only other MP I've had dealings with in the recent past was Mark Lazarowicz, who was a very good local MP. I was sad to see him defeated, regardless of party.
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Working out what that actually means in terms of MPs' bums on seats isn't an exact science, but if we assume a uniform swing – that each constituency's votes change in line with national polls – that suggests Labour could be at risk of losing 50 or more seats, the Conservatives could pick up plenty, and the Liberal Democrats could be looking to more than double their current seat count.
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https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/heres-why-the-general-election-will-actually-be-really
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EXC: Tonight Tories on 48% in the first YouGov poll taken since Theresa May called election - highest since May 2008
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https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854802665116717056
Right
So that's unifying the country and providing leadership with the support of less than 50% of the electorate?
Something wrong somewhere.
From https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/heres-why-the-general-election-will-actually-be-really
"MPs from all parties on Wednesday backed her call for an early general election – 8 June it is."
As The Honourable Member for Red Morningside was quick to try and make capital of on Twitter, the SNP did not, they abstained on the vote.
The SNP managed to grab an astonishing 50% of Scotland's vote in 2015's general election, and recent polling suggests this has not slipped much – falling to 47% or so.
What has changed is the polling positions of the other parties: The Liberal Democrats have slipped slightly, Labour has fallen a lot, and the Conservatives are resurgent. This gives the opportunity for the Tories to threaten as many as 10 seats in Scotland, most of them held by the SNP. Seats such as Moray or West Aberdeenshire in the northeast of Scotland – the least pro-Remain region of the nation – may be particularly vulnerable to Conservative attack, but the party also threatens constituencies around both Edinburgh and Glasgow (if not in Glasgow itself).
This analysis doesn't really make sense in a First Past the Post scenario where the SNP can command 40-50% of the vote quite reliably in a lot of seats, with three "major" parties contesting the remainder of the vote. It takes a heck of a lot of tactical voting to achieve it, usually aligned to a high profile local candidate or a past constituency loyalty to a certain party.
Angus Roberston has 49.5% in Moray, Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems are largely split equally on about 20% each. Even if the SNP slipped 5% or 10% total, it would take an unusual event to allocate all of that swing to any 1 party sufficient to see him lose his seat. Given his high profile and standing and general respect as a good politician, I'd imagine he's feeling fairly safe. The Tories would need to be able to pick up nearly every single changing Labour and Liberal Democrat vote to make headway there.
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine had the SNP on about 42% last time, with Tories on 29% and Lib Dems on 21% and Labour trailing in single digits. It was the Lib Dems who gave the SNP most of their swing last time round so maybe they have more to gain than the Tories, but maybe they don't if Brexit is kept in mind. The Tory Candidate in 2015 was Eton-educated aristocrat Alexander Burnett who is now a list MSP for the region and who to all intents and purposes is only in politics to pick up his cheque and further his own business interests.
Anyway, I do imagine the SNP might lose a few marginal seats where "anyone but the SNP" tactical voting can manage to organise itself around a suitable party and candidate (I give you Edinburgh South(ern) and Edinburgh West(ern) as examples). I don't imagine the Tories will do half as well as some in the media might imagine (or wish), their last GE experience in Scotland was their worst on record and Ruth Davidson's "resurgence" has seen their share of the vote rocket to somewhere less than John Major got in 1992.
You cannot seem to find anything published by Labour or the Conservatives that does not go on at great length about the SNP and the prospect of Independence. So long as both of these parties choose to align themselves so closely to a single, unmovable and inflexible position on a single issue then they will always be fighting eachother for a share of that vote. If the SNP can continue to reliably "count on" the pro-independence vote at Westminster General Elections (without the dynamics of proportional representation and a big campaign by the Greens that you get at Holyrood) and if they can keep that percentage of the electorate around the 40-50% mark where it seems to be stuck, then they are going to be pretty difficult bums to shift from seats.
Analysis suggesting that, based on the last GE, even 100% perfect tactical voting to beat the Tories wouldn't have made that big a difference.
Edinburgh West could be interesting Michelle Thomson the independent incumbent seems to have been a lot better since loosing the SNP whip. She has asked for it back but I suspect will be a risky choice. However if she isn't given the whip and stands as an independent then the pro-indi vote could be split.
Even without that the LibDem's came back strongly at Holyrood so if the same tactical voting occurs may return an MP.
Alternatively it could be business as usual for FPTP with a the largest minority voting for SNP.
Well, makes more sense than putting at heart of councils campaign.
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Theresa May's claims that a general election victory will strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations have been called "nonsensical" by the European Parliament's chief Brexit co-ordinator.
Guy Verhofstadt, a long-standing critic of Brexit, wrote in The Observer that it was "irrelevant" whether the Conservatives increased their majority.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39681186
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“We can only conclude that many British politicians and the media still don’t fathom how article 50 will work in practice. Will the election of more Tory MPs give Theresa May a greater chance of securing a better Brexit deal? For those sitting around the table in Brussels, this is an irrelevance.”
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The main thing noted in the EU is that Theresa May is likely to change her mind on almost anything.
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“It genuinely would be a surprise if they got 56 seats again, but at the moment there isn’t anything to suggest it will be less than 50,” he said.
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Maybe Con and Lab will change their minds about FPTP.
(Or maybe the SNP will want it for Holyrood!)
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GUILLOTINES, castration, and flogging – these are just some of the policies put forward by the latest controversial Scottish Ukip candidate to come to the fore.
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I'd just like to say that despite the fact that I'm a democrat and very much in favour of elections and representative democracy I don't think anything good can come of this.
@chdot, yes I read about this Glasgow based person yesterday on the website
Angry people in local newspapers
She wants golf courses banned as bad for environment and she wishes stables to be promoted.
Causing one top class comment
It's horses for courses
Indeed all of the comments on that website, perhaps as it is UK wide? Are without our local brand of rancour. Will be mostly liberal intelligentsia posting too.
Dr who written by Frank cotterell Boyce last night said he wasn't Scottish, just angry. All these scots going to other planets and trying to make them independent capaldi muttered under his breath. I await the storm, or the development of an SNP sense of humour (in fairness no political party has a sense of humour hence screaming Lord such being compelled to form one)
no political party has a sense of humour
Pirates are usually funnier than that?
In pirates of the Caribbean, there is much made of the pirate code and the right to parlay.
Kiera knightly demands the right to parlay by the right of the pirate code and capt barbosa says firstly you are not a pirate and secondly it is more a rough set of guidelines than an actual code.
Now that is funny (nothing funny ever happened again in pirates of the Caribbean until Keef turned up as Johnny depp's dad)
In a similar vein of whimsy
What did the cannibal say to his wife when they were eating the clown?
Does this taste funny to you?
And of course, the trouble with political jokes is....... They get elected (see below TB returns)
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Tony Blair has urged voters not to elect MPs who "back Brexit at any cost", whichever party they are from.
The ex-PM told the BBC that Brexit was a bigger issue than party allegiance for the general election on 8 June.
He said the Tories were likely to win but a big Labour vote could constrain the PM, whose "unreasonable" policy was being driven by her party's right wing.
And he said he felt so passionately about Brexit he was "almost motivated" to re-enter British politics himself.
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"I’m not of the view people should necessarily use their votes tactically – I think they should quite simply put a cross on the ballot paper next to the candidate and the party they believe in."
If only there were electoral systems where people didn't need to even consider voting tactically.
If only there were electoral systems where people didn't need to even consider voting tactically.
Imagine!
We're going to hell in a FPTP handcart.
What!? Jermey Corbyn has ruled out any alliance with the SNP. It's hardly news the SNP want independence.
Also - Miles Briggs has been a list MSP for less than a year (following his stint as a Tory researcher) and now wants to go to Westminster. Says all you really need to know about what the Tories really think about Holyrood.
I got a leaflet from the Ruth Davidsons recently. It doesn't mention any election or candidate, so I suppose it's intended to cover both the local and general elections. Makes you wonder at their foresight.
Meanwhile I am overcome by foreboding and gloom when I think about the general election. I can't see any outcome that won't make this a worse place to live for most people.
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