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General Election 8th June

(493 posts)
  • Started 7 years ago by chdot
  • Latest reply from I were right about that saddle

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  1. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Was it Murdo Fraser who, not that long ago, wanted to disband the Scottish Conservatives?

    No. Remarkably he proposed to split them off from the Conservative party, of which they are currently an accounting unit, and form a new independent party operating only in Scotland.

    Murdo was, until Ms Davidson became leader, quite a thoughtful chap in some ways. He proposed putting the Stone of Destiny in St John's Kirk in Perth for example, a lovely gesture in regard of one of our symbols of nationhood.

    Now he appears to be a methane-filled balloon on a stick.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  2. chdot
    Admin

    "wanted to disband the Scottish Conservatives?"

    It happened.

    There is the Theresa May Party and the Ruth Davidson Party.

    "

    Speaking to BBC Radio 5 live's Emma Barnett, Ms Davidson said she would be willing to examine whether there were "better ways of doing it" if it was felt to be necessary.

    "

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39869709

    Posted 7 years ago #

  3. kaputnik
    Moderator

    @ JDanielP / Frenchy; thanks for update, Twitter misinforms me (shock, horror! although it was from a usually reliable source) I should have checked the actual %ages of course!

    Still, it's an expensive business this electioneering. I also noted that the other parties got donations totalling much closer to 100% of their constituency spending, so on a local basis at least less money has to be taken from party coffers.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  4. kaputnik
    Moderator

    14 candidates spent more in their constituencies than the Greens did in total, between them spending 17 times more than the Greens. All but 2 of these failed to get elected.

    Danny Alexander (LD), 49908.64
    Alexander James Amherst Burnett (CON), 49423.42
    John Robert Lamont (CON), 48994.92
    Michael Kevin Moore (LD), 47921.56
    Douglas Garven Alexander (LAB), 47421.65
    David Gordon Mundell (CON), 46843.63
    Jo Swinson (LD), 42722.25
    Christine Anne Jardine (LD), 42454.32
    Tim Brett (LD), 42344.57
    Anas Sarwar (LAB), 39337.32
    Charles Peter Kennedy (LD), 38350.36
    Robert Hill Smith (LD), 37920.29
    Ian Murray (LAB), 36700.7
    Mike Crockart (LD), 36412.76

    The Lib Dems were profligate spenders on their "key" seats, and got nothing back from it. You do have to wonder where they were getting this kind of money from, certainly not the subs of their Scottish membership.

    The SNP's biggest spender was Michelle Thompson on £26.3k. That didn't really work out as intended though.

    You can also appreciate why the Scottish Tories / Labour and Lib Dems are constructed as accounting units and not independent parties, I very much doubt any of them could cover their huge operating costs from donations and subscriptions they raised in the Scottish parties alone.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  5. Morningsider
    Member

    So the Greens have chosen not to stand against the SNP...or against Labour, or the Tories, or the Lib Dems or...

    I just can't put my finger on what it is about the Brexit loving, public sector hating, environment destroying, social security cutting Tories that might be putting off those potential Green voters.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  6. chdot
    Admin

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/opinion/ian-swanson-are-we-really-on-the-brink-of-a-true-blue-renaissance-1-4441209

    Posted 7 years ago #

  7. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Ian Swanson is a rare thing indeed, a balanced and well informed EEN opinion writer!

    I'm no more sure about what might happen on June 8th than anyone else is, but let's be quite clear that the Ruth Davidson party is still less popular than the John Major party was in 1992 after 11 years of Thatcherocracy and 2 of bumbling Back to Basics Majorism and Lamontanomics.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  8. chdot
    Admin

    "I'm no more sure about what might happen on June 8th than anyone else is"

    Allegedly some people might be working on it.

    This is not for those who believe British democracy just works and 'we've got our country back' -

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy?

    (Someone I know who works in "data" says: "Sloppy piece, but still interesting. Still think Cambridge Analytica can't do half of what they claim.")

    Posted 7 years ago #

  9. kaputnik
    Moderator

    When I was trawling through expenses returns for the 2015 GE, I did find that the Conservatives spent just shy of quarter of a million in Scotland with Lynton Crosby's company.

    Labour and the Conservatives were equally guilty of splashing out 5 and 6 figure sums on American polling / electioneering companies. Conservatives spent a lot with a company founded by one of Ross Perot's cronies that specialises in coming up with campaign messages and working out how they sit with the public, all wrapped up in some sort of psychometric pseudoscience. Labour spent on someone who trains CEOs and "aspiring politicians" in public speaking. Probably the guy that trains them to do that ridiculous thing where they clench their fist with the thumb over the top of it when public speaking.

    The Tories also spent in Scotland £20k on private jets and £78k with a murky company which appears to be a Spanish time share outfit with a reputation for hard/dodgy selling. Labour spent quite a bit on rosettes, balloons and industrial tarpaulins. They also spent 6-figure sums on call centres and unsolicited mailshots. The Tories preferred VOIP autodialling technology to actual call centres.

    Either way, getting David Mundell, Ian Murray and Alistair Carmichael elected was an /extremely/ expensive business.

    The SNP spent about the same as Labour and the Conservatives (~1.5million) and quite a bit on helicopters but obviously their return on investment was 50-fold higher. They also spent about a 1/3 of what the Tories/Labour/Lib Dems did on a membership per-capita basis (c. £36 compared to £100-110 ).

    It's very patent that from a financial, bought-in strategy and logistics/production point of view, the Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem campaigns were run from head office in London.

    It remains to be seen if the Lib Dems still have £50k each to spend on trying to get Jo Swinson or Mike Crockart's replacement elected.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  10. Rosie
    Member

    These are the candidates in my constituency. Dodgy Michelle Thompson not standing again:-

    Edinburgh West
    BATHO, Sandy – Scottish Conservative and Unionist
    GIUGLIANO, Toni – Scottish National Party (SNP)
    JARDINE, Christine Anne – Scottish Liberal Democrats
    TELFORD, Mandy – Scottish Labour Party
    WHITTET, Mark Robertson – Scotland’s Independence Referendum Party

    I assume Mark Whittet is a single issue candidate, but why compete against the SNP?

    Posted 7 years ago #

  11. Frenchy
    Member

    I assume Mark Whittet is a single issue candidate, but why compete against the SNP?

    His idea is to try and win list seats at Holyrood, because list votes are currently "wasted" on the SNP: http://www.scotlandsindependencereferendumparty.scot/scotlands-independence-referendum-party-offers-progressive-alliance-with-snp-for-westminster-and-holyrood-general-elections

    Posted 7 years ago #

  12. kaputnik
    Moderator

    but why compete against the SNP
    There are plenty of publicity-seeking zoomers in the independence movement who are not in (or not allowed in) the SNP! Some are actively against it.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  13. kaputnik
    Moderator

    His idea is to try and win list seats at Holyrood, because list votes are currently "wasted" on the SNP:

    Hmm, I did actually float this as an "is there anything stopping anyone doing this" idea after the SP2016 election. Effectively a list party and a seat party who then go into coalition with eachother.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  14. Rosie
    Member

    Oh, thanks for the info.

    Jim Eadie standing in Edinburgh South. I wished he had stood as a Councillor, but mebbe that's something politicians think is a climb down.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  15. crowriver
    Member

    "Dodgy Michelle Thompson not standing again"

    Suspended from the party, no?

    Posted 7 years ago #

  16. Frenchy
    Member

    Newly-elected Conservative councillor for Liberton-Gilmerton, Stephanie Smith, is also standing in Edinburgh South.

    Lib Dem is called Christopher Beal.

    Ian Murray standing for re-election, too.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  17. crowriver
    Member

    Just in case anyone's interested, here's that Labour draft manifesto in full (courtesy ITV News). Make your own minds up:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0rQC6QlfGaNd3o2cndab0M1VTQ/view

    Posted 7 years ago #

  18. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Edinburgh East is getting;

    Tommy Sheppard - SNP (incumbent)

    Patsy King - LAB. Former community councillor and I believe from the Momentum side of the party. Been involved in local politics for decades including some reporting in the EEN years back about something called the "Craigmillar Cabal"

    Tristan Philip Pierre Gray - LIB DEM - I believe he's a serial "also ran" candidate for the Lib Dems in both England and Scotland. I found an essay on a Liberal blog he had written calling for "Muscular Liberalism" and not being afraid to use CAPITAL LETTERS for LIBERAL DEMOCRATS. I believe he's a sport and fitness instructor.

    Katie Chrichton Mackie - CON - I believe just got elected as a local councillor in Musselburgh. Formerly stood for the Tories in Falkirk at the 2010 GE.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  19. crowriver
    Member

    So, basically SNP v Labour in Edinburgh East. Hmmm...

    Posted 7 years ago #

  20. Rosie
    Member

    Dodgy Michelle Thompson not standing again"

    Suspended from the party, no?

    Yes.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  21. kaputnik
    Moderator

    So, basically SNP v Labour in Edinburgh East. Hmmm...
    Maybe other parts of the constituency will differ, but Labour didn't even seem to bother in Craigentinny & Duddingston ward for the local election. Tommy Sheppard got pretty much half the vote last time, that's a tall order for anyone else to match given current polling trends. The Tories took 10% last time and Labour 30%, if the local election trend is anything to go by that position could easily be reversed. The Greens took 6% and aren't standing this time, based on how 1st preference Green votes went at the local, a good number will not automatically go SNP, reasonable %ages went both Labour and Lib Dem.

    Tommy seems popular, competent, has an active branch behind him and has worked pretty hard at Westminster. Plus he has the best eyebrows in parliament since Alistair Darling went all ermine on us.

    The Tories have never held the seat in any of its guises or boundaries since 1886 when a Liberal Unionist Party member briefly held it.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  22. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Thinking on about Edinburgh constituencies, Edinburgh West was solidly Tory from the 1930s, and from 1974-1997 Lord James Douglas Hamilton was the people's man. After that it went Liberal Democrat until Michelle Thompson took it in 2015. The money is on the Lib Dems taking it back this time, a return to the normal for the seat perhaps.

    Considering Edinburgh North & Leith and before that Edinburgh Leith and then Leith as one line, it was Labour from 1945 until 2015. There was an Edinburgh North seat from 1918-1983 which on all but 2 occasions returned a Tory. Chrystal Macmillan stood there for the Liberals in 1935. Labour sneaked it in 1945 but it went back to its happy, blue place for the rest of its life after that.

    Edinburgh South has a long line, being Liberal from 1885-1918 with one exception, before going Tory until Nigel Griffiths captured it for the Morningside Soviet in 1987. Ian Murray is still hanging on to it.

    Edinburgh Southwest is mainly bits of Pentland and some of the old Central constituency. It was solidly blue from 1950 until Labour deposed Malkie Rifkind in 1997.

    There was an old seat until 1992 called Edinburgh Central which swapped hands between Labour and the Tories over the years, but was mostly Labour being most recently Alistair Darling's.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  23. Frenchy
    Member

    James Douglas-Hamilton, Baron Selkirk of Douglas, of Cramond

    Guy has far too many place names in his name/titles.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  24. Baldcyclist
    Member

    "here's that Labour draft manifesto"

    Only thing that seems to be missing is the return to the 3 day working week.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  25. chdot
    Admin

    "but was mostly Labour being most recently Alistair Darling's"

    And previously Robin Cook - until he got a safer seat further west.

    Don't think he ever lived in either.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  26. chdot
    Admin

    Posted 7 years ago #

  27. chdot
    Admin

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/gordon-brown-poverty-will-be-higher-under-may-than-thatcher-1-4444664

    Posted 7 years ago #

  28. gembo
    Member

    Up thread - my favourite Lord Jimmy Douglas Hamilton story, which I take any opportunity to repeat came from his House of Commons driver I will call June to protect identity

    Jimmy enters the limo. He says June I have made a terrible gaffe in the House, I meant to say Merchant Banker,

    Mrs G also now chirping in when he was doing a Q & A in the house and was reading his briefing but had the papers in the wrong order so did a two ronnies sketch by answering the question that was just about to be asked. Before it was asked as the answer to the previous question. All the way to the end.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  29. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    That Gordon Brown article is a belter. If he will feel no shame then I will feel it for him.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  30. LaidBack
    Member

    A bit more of a positive outlook in this article from Tom Devine.
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/sir-tom-devine-snp-are-barrier-to-blood-and-soil-nationalism-1-4443853

    As said before, this election will solve nothing and is probably only another stage in the gradual (or not so gradual) rebalancing of politics in the UK.

    Posted 7 years ago #

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