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We're Doomed - No matter the evidence, they won't be swayed...

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  1. Roibeard
    Member

    Unfortunately evidence to the contrary of a politician's current opinion does not undermine that opinion, rather it reinforces it. And adding more contrary evidence only serves to entrench them further in their original opinion.

    Such was proven in a large sample of Danish politicians. One might have hoped that the Danes might have been more enlightened as a nation, but I suspect British and Scottish politicians will be equally resistant to facts.

    The researchers conclude with some questions:

    First, why does adding more evidence increase the impact of attitudes? Secondly, if increasing the amount of evidence does not reduce the impact of attitudes, how can we then reduce it? Thirdly, how can we ensure nuanced interpretations of evidence regardless of prior attitudes and beliefs?

    Sadly they do not provide answers to this!

    Robert

    Posted 7 years ago #

  2. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    From experience of persuading people facts are not much help except in the gruesome process of forming and testing your own opinion in the first place.

    Once you get to persuasion then making friends, lived experience and wide-open questions are the weapons. People persuade themselves in the bath and on the bus hours and days later.

    I was talking to one of our politicians this week and planted a grain of sand in his mind with a question that I suspect he just won't ever be able to ignore completely. He did the same to me too, skilled as he was.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  3. chdot
    Admin

    "and planted a grain of sand in his mind"

    But was it 'evidence based' or just a notion?

    Posted 7 years ago #

  4. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    It was a question.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  5. jdanielp
    Member

    More importantly, did the top fall over or keep on spinning?

    Posted 7 years ago #

  6. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    The Danes get good outcomes from their politics - we know this from the evidence. They are very happy.

    We should do what they do, but it probably isn't fact-based politics.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  7. HankChief
    Member

    One of the best pieces if influencing advice I received was "Don't assume you can convince someone with only one interaction and/or method"

    It takes time and patience to get someone to change deep held opinions. That's certainly the game I am playing with MCC...

    Posted 7 years ago #

  8. chdot
    Admin

    "We're Doomed"

    Yes, see all "evidence" on climate change, population projections, resources, environmental degradation and politicians (and multinationals, industrial/military complexes, capitalism etc.) being largely unwilling to deviate far from the status quo/more of the same mantras and imagination.

    "No matter the evidence, they won't be swayed..."

    As above.

    There seems to be a need for disruption. The problem is that the most recent attempts - Trump and Brexit don't seem to have dented business as usual much (even IF either was likely to bring in the changes that might have actually improved things in any way for more than a tiny minority).

    Whether the problem is "elites" or 'we know best' elites are any sort of (dictatorial or democratic) answer, 'politics' seems to be stuck with/because of vested interests (of all sorts inc populations that - understandable - don't want their personal lives to be conventionally worse), and consequent inertia.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  9. chdot
    Admin

    "It takes time and patience to get someone to change deep held opinions. That's certainly the game I am playing with MCC..."

    Good - and well done.

    Small efforts will make a small, worthwhile, difference fairly locally.

    But any worldwide, bigger picture, seems wholly immune from a rational or optimistic future.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  10. Morningsider
    Member

    chdot - perhaps I'm feeling optimistic today, but everywhere is somewhere local. What every locality needs is a few Hankchiefs to push for positive change.

    Once there is a groundswell of support, politicians have a habit of getting on-board with an issue. You don't really need to change their mind on any fundamental level - you need to make them think it is an issue that will help them win votes.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  11. HankChief
    Member

    <blushes>

    I think you're right. There's not a lot of cutting of new ground by politicians. The status quo is the easiest position to hold.

    It's obviously easier for them to be bolder if someone has paved the way or they know that some corner of society will stand up for it and explain why it is the right thing to do.

    Having vocal local champions is important. I first got involved 'politically' when I realised that my view was shared amongst the small affected population (to varying degrees) and that nobody else was going to champion it. That was GSR...

    Posted 7 years ago #

  12. chdot
    Admin

    "perhaps I'm feeling optimistic today"

    Seems so.

    "but everywhere is somewhere local"

    Hence the well known "think global, act local".

    Act local is obviously good and may affect a significant number of people locally.

    Actions in Amsterdam clearly had significant effects there AND are influencing other people throughout the world. BUT still politicians and public believe 'it's always been like that', it's 'cultural', 'it's flat', 'the weather is better'.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  13. chdot
    Admin

    Meanwhile the oil/car industries dominate by adapting and at a pace that is convenient.

    Few car bans, more (electric) cars.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  14. chdot
    Admin

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/epic-catastrophic-flooding-devastates-houston-rainfall-forecast/story?id=49462873

    Posted 7 years ago #

  15. SRD
    Moderator

    BREAKING: North Korea has launched a missile, Japanese govt. warns it is headed towards Northern Japan -Reuters/NHK cnbc.com/id/104677370

    Posted 7 years ago #

  16. Arellcat
    Moderator

    unwilling to deviate far from the status quo/more of the same mantras and imagination.

    Not so far from the truth. Have a read of this:

    http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2013/06/8511

    and then if you are minded, read the technical guide:

    http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2013/06/8606

    People believe what they want/like to believe because of their own value system, which is informed by things that matter to them (or are beneficial to them) personally; but also by externalities: of what other people are doing and how those relationships bear upon the individual; and the physical world that enables or influences a way of thinking or behaving.

    To change behaviour, you have to tackle all of the factors within the three overarching themes, by identifying why people act a certain way in each case, and develop counter-measures. It's not always about the carrot though; sometimes you need both carrot and stick: by legislating for the desired outcome, and using the behaviour change approach to develop public acceptance. It's not quick but it is effective.

    Edit: It appears other events are somewhat overtaking this post.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  17. chdot
    Admin

    "It's not always about the carrot though; sometimes you need both carrot and stick: by legislating for the desired outcome, and using the behaviour change approach to develop public acceptance."

    I think this misses the problem. It partly assumes the legislators know what to do. It's certainly the case, particularly in recent years that politicians believe (to some extent true) that 'people' don't want things - e.g. significant reduction in freedom to use cars (ignoring those who don't have one).

    Meanwhile they seem seduced by things like electric and/or driverless cars, which certainly aren't being developed by governments - but they would have to deal with the consequences, good and bad.

    Politicians like to pretend that they are in control (except when 'nature' does 'unpredictable' things) and also doing 'what people want'.

    Posted 7 years ago #

  18. chdot
    Admin

    Unrelated but relevant -

    "

    The fact is, we already know that sea level rise and frequent flooding are going to make lots of coastal cities uninhabitable over coming decades (though exactly how many, and when, remains maddeningly uncertain). Think, for a moment, about Miami slowly becoming unlivable. “Adaptation” will mean figuring out who has to leave, who has to pay for resettlement, and who bears the cost of the abandoned city’s infrastructure as it rots, crumbles, and pollutes.

    That’s a lot of fateful decisions to be made about people’s lives, homes, land, families, and legacies. It is politically explosive stuff. Raise your hand if you think it will be done in an egalitarian or equitable way.

    "

    https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/8/28/16213268/harvey-climate-change

    Posted 7 years ago #

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